the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[gmh1013]

Without getting political ...of course somebody is trying to save his ass and thats all they care about....
If you try to bury your head in the sand and pretend it just "biz as usual" depending on the infection rate and the possibility of 70-80 percent infection you simply can cant have it. Whole companies could be sick and their friends dying....nobody is going to show up anyway. In NYC would you want to ride on the subway armed with some Purcell if you can find it and a used face mask? I think not.
I think back to the movie Full Metal Jacket quote "its a big s**t sandwich and we are all going to have to take a bite"

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I'm not entirely sure McLovin' is referencing the disease, so much as the effect of it. My comment was not a feeling, but a quantifiable observation, and a theory as to why. Incidentally, my observation is contrary to many stories I hear from people who've been nowhere near a hospital lately.

I went to a grocery store today and nobody was panicking. Wasn't even crowded.

They even had a few pkgs of toilet paper.

Water, meat, produce. All there.

They were oddly out of cottage cheese...

I can see based on our combined experiences that things are coming around.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I live in the NYC area, where it is exploding. If the self quarantine ends, I suspect it will light the fuse of a second wave.

Perhaps if there's enough death and suffering in the first wave it will sink in that people should do something completely crazy like motivate themselves to modify their behavior and associations as individuals above and beyond just merely what the government orders them to do.

If people do the minimum, however, you're absolutely correct.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by CRM114

The numbers prove exactly what I think they prove...places like NYC sat for almost 2 months doing almost nothing to prepare, educate the populace, or advocate and adopt anti-spreading behavior until only recently when it was obviously upon them.

Wider testing/skyrocketing numbers merely reveals how ill-prepared and how deep heads were buried in the sand despite the evidence, warnings, and most of all, common sense from the municipal and health care leaders all the way down the the person on the street.

When a hurricane approaches a city but despite ample warnings and evidence everyone grasps onto any straw that allows them to remain in a state of denial or excuses themselves for failing to prepare in the belief it will somehow pass them by, then when it hits the death and destruction are far worse than a city and populace that are proactive. That's a fact, not an unproven theory.

I saw it first hand in NYC and SF on trips in early March prior to the initiation of the responses. The difference between there and here in Hong Kong was night and day. There were certainly fewer people on the streets in tourists spots frequented by those from Europe and Asia, but mostly locals were acting out the same unhygienic and close-contact behaviors.

The current response is, by and large, completely reactionary and even now there are too many who still don't "get it" as far as behavior and an unwillingness to put up with inconveniences unless forced to do so.

Even now there's debate as to whether it does any good to wear a mask in public. Even now some are still having extended family dinners, birthday parties, etc etc. with those one normally lets their guard down around and thus are most likely to transmit it to and fro.

It was common knowledge that carriers could be asymptomatic and that it was highly transmissible by having the benefit of seeing and studying what was happening elsewhere. In the face of that knowledge what NOT to do in a congested city is sit around hoping it will pass one by, doubly so when almost nobody is being tested yet.

With an asymptomatic virus there should be no link between proactive behavior modification and testing. One doesn't need testing to do the things that will reduce the chance of communicating an unseen disease. Beating the drum now for resources after it's suddenly becoming overwhelming and obvious because broader testing is revealing how ill-prepared the populace was serves as a good example of what happens when wishful thinking, denial, a mindset of "someone will figure out something save the day...just like a Hollywood movie", and a general disbelief in science are given credence.

There you have it.



Now it’s too little too late for containment.

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I went to a grocery store today and nobody was panicking. Wasn't even crowded.

They even had a few pkgs of toilet paper.

Water, meat, produce. All there.

They were oddly out of cottage cheese...

I can see based on our combined experiences that things are coming around.

Your lucky....here.....no water, no toilet paper, no milk, very little meat, frozen food looked like 1970's Russian supermarket....

[Andad]

We will venture out for the first time tomorrow.
There are some remote supermarkets close by.
We will check them out for shopper numbers and decide whether to enter.

We are not desperate for supplies but it may be better to replenish sooner than later.

I will take some pix but safety first as the confirmed cases are rising.

The cruise ships that they allowed in recently was a big mistake.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by directioneng

We will venture out for the first time tomorrow.
There are some remote supermarkets close by.
We will check them out for shopper numbers and decide whether to enter.

We are not desperate for supplies but it may be better to replenish sooner than later.

I will take some pix but safety first as the confirmed cases are rising.

The cruise ships that they allowed in recently was a big mistake.

Order your food online and have it delivered, there are various vendors like amazon


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[makak]

Originally Posted by DJ39

Order your food online and have it delivered, there are various vendors like amazon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Amazon don't do fresh food deliveries here in Australia. Even the 2 main supermarket chains aren't doing deliveries in my area as they are only offering that service to the vulnerable at this stage. I'm ok with that, just time my weekly shopping run at times when they are far less busy

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by CRM114

The numbers prove exactly what I think they prove...places like NYC sat for almost 2 months doing almost nothing to prepare, educate the populace, or advocate and adopt anti-spreading behavior until only recently when it was obviously upon them.

Wider testing/skyrocketing numbers merely reveals how ill-prepared and how deep heads were buried in the sand despite the evidence, warnings, and most of all, common sense from the municipal and health care leaders all the way down the the person on the street.

When a hurricane approaches a city but despite ample warnings and evidence everyone grasps onto any straw that allows them to remain in a state of denial or excuses themselves for failing to prepare in the belief it will somehow pass them by, then when it hits the death and destruction are far worse than a city and populace that are proactive. That's a fact, not an unproven theory.

I saw it first hand in NYC and SF on trips in early March prior to the initiation of the responses. The difference between there and here in Hong Kong was night and day. There were certainly fewer people on the streets in tourists spots frequented by those from Europe and Asia, but mostly locals were acting out the same unhygienic and close-contact behaviors.

The current response is, by and large, completely reactionary and even now there are too many who still don't "get it" as far as behavior and an unwillingness to put up with inconveniences unless forced to do so.

Even now there's debate as to whether it does any good to wear a mask in public. Even now some are still having extended family dinners, birthday parties, etc etc. with those one normally lets their guard down around and thus are most likely to transmit it to and fro.

It was common knowledge that carriers could be asymptomatic and that it was highly transmissible by having the benefit of seeing and studying what was happening elsewhere. In the face of that knowledge what NOT to do in a congested city is sit around hoping it will pass one by, doubly so when almost nobody is being tested yet.

With an asymptomatic virus there should be no link between proactive behavior modification and testing. One doesn't need testing to do the things that will reduce the chance of communicating an unseen disease. Beating the drum now for resources after it's suddenly becoming overwhelming and obvious because broader testing is revealing how ill-prepared the populace was serves as a good example of what happens when wishful thinking, denial, a mindset of "someone will figure out something save the day...just like a Hollywood movie", and a general disbelief in science are given credence.

It’s a very good comment and correct, except that in the movies there is always the hero who is competent and proactive

in real life government are always slow to react, in any crisis UNLESS the crisis has happened before there is a slow response. Governments always fight the last war not the war they are in.

The reason South Korea got it right is they their last war was a pandemic so they learned and responded correctly the next time

I was in government for a time and understand this

By the way this is true in organizations as well KODAK was disrupted by digital cameras. It’s kind of the same problem something new comes along and you are not ready for it EVEN though you should have been

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[superdog]

Originally Posted by directioneng

We will venture out for the first time tomorrow.
There are some remote supermarkets close by.
We will check them out for shopper numbers and decide whether to enter.

We are not desperate for supplies but it may be better to replenish sooner than later.

I will take some pix but safety first as the confirmed cases are rising.

The cruise ships that they allowed in recently was a big mistake.

Good luck. I hope it’s smooth for you.

[BreguetRolex]

American citizens here living at our winter home in Sunny Sri Lanka and we are know under 24 hour curfew until further notice with no alcohol sales indefinite.. No problem as I just bought 8 bottles of tequila in Jakarta and 5 cases of beer locally before the prohibition ..!

[superdog]

Personally, I’m finding all the various opinions status quo. Certainly some of the arguements are compelling and worth opening our minds to. I feel that most don’t do that though.

In any case, my feelings at this point are shifting simply towards compassion. We live in a cancel culture where if we don’t like what someone has to say, we want to cancel them or their ability to say it.

I say we try to shift to a compassion culture, where we try to realize another persons perspective is based on what they are going through and also has validity.

This situation isn’t easy for anyone. No matter their opinion. Personally, I hope everyone finds some measure of peace over the coming months.

If only we could learn to stop pointing fingers and start building bridges.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Many times a day, I see people throwing out influenza incidence and mortality rates to show that Coronavirus is apparently a minor problem in comparison. However, in almost 30 years of ER practice as a doc, every year of which we dealt with influenza, I never saw anything as frightening as what is happening now with Covid-9. I’m not at all comforted that SO FAR, the Covid numbers are less than those of influenza.

This is what worries me, per the WHO, "It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases. Eleven days for the second 100,000 and just four days for the third 100,000," ( https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ns/ar-BB11z4C6 )

That growth is accelerating and it has only just reached the US. With the population density in Europe and major US cities, this thing could accelerate intensely.

[airchitect]

And that’s something I didn’t even mention that many recent have.....that you can be sick and not be sick. You can be asymptomatic. That in and of itself throws a truck sized pipe wrench into the works. In the fall and early winter I knew many people who became very ill with all of these symptoms yet tested negative for the flu. Could it have been Covid-19? Who knows. And to those with family/friends in healthcare......whelp so do I. At the moment the biggest problems I see are these.....

#1. A lack of understanding from EVERYONE about what response is appropriate here.

#2. Leadership....not to be political, but when it comes to this we literally have a handful of state governors to look to. World leaders as a whole have been useless.

#3. This isn’t a manmade threat like global warming, etc. This is nature doing what it does and potentially thinning the heard. Let’s all remember that at the and of the day we are just animals. Like every other animal. Human arrogance has us believe our lives are the most valuable and we should all be saved but reality is, to ol Mother Nature, to disease, we could just as well be ants....

#4. And now I bring you to the idiots. The ones hoarding supplies though they’ll never leave the house anyway. The managers who can’t stand for their employees to work remote for fear of not being able to micromanage them. The scientist who tell everyone to hold up in their homes for 18months. The people that think getting us into 1.5-2.5 Trillion more debt will help anything (if they really wanted to help, they should somehow freeze all debt/repayments while this was going on so people could focus on necessities). The preppers. Man have they been waiting for this. The doomsdayers who scream the world is ending......

#5. A broken healthcare system. If 60% of people get this as is required to build herd immunity, our healthcare system will head down the tubes. And as such, when it’s all over I’d look for a huge push for a true overhaul.

#6. Politicians. I can’t think of one that isn’t a clown in some way. But they’ve all let us down here and as the next wave of voters come of age, I’d expect a huge shift in this arena in the coming cycles....that is if we are even allowed out to vote.

But what are the possible benefits of all of this??

#1. the potential overhauls to politics and medicine.

#2. The decentralization of business. If people work remotely for months on end and get used to the perks of it while achieving just as much as in a tired building an hours commute away, will they ever go back? Nope. And companies need to recognize and plan for it now. People may finally be able to achieve true work/life balance.

#3. Same as above for education. Institutions will crumble because why pay 30k a year to live in dorm when you can do it all online.

#4 a wide open more robust internet built from necessity.

#5 possibly a continued realization of the negatives of debt.

#6 more self reliance by those reliant on the system. Sure would be nice to be more self sustaining right now. A little land, a few animals and a garden may come in handy soon.

#7 and to that end an increase in personal living and survival skills overall.

#8 a reclaiming, if you will, of property for other uses. Not by the govt mind you but by the market. Because if more business and edu go remote, then vast swaths of office parks worldwide could become ghost towns and be reclaimed to build things that are actually important....like housing, parks, hospitals, etc.....

#9 and maybe just maybe, a toning down of the far lefts and rights and a return to community (utopian idea right?)

I do not not know where all of this will go, but I’m certain of four things......

#1 this thing isn’t “under control” until the bulk of us have it. I believe even producing a viable vaccine requires this, and the timeline for all of this is 1-many years.....

#2 with that in mind, quarantining for that long is never going to happen whether it should or not. Social animals won’t do that. Period.

#3 though our anxiousness has us feel the ends (saving a handful) justifies the means (basically shutting down the world), logic says it doesn’t. At all.

#4 and finally, it will effect us all in some way. And for everyone, I hope everything works out for the best. Stay safe folks.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

Your lucky....here.....no water, no toilet paper, no milk, very little meat, frozen food looked like 1970's Russian supermarket....

Same here.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Great screenshot here. Great example of kind of what we are dealing with in terms of two sides to this whole thing. The first person seems to make an unbiased observation. He may not be a doctor or a medical professional, but I think most of us would recognize a hospital in stress if we walked into one. It seems like an honest observation.

Then there is the other person....who has the nickname of fake character in a 20-year old stupid comedy...who makes a strong clickbait worthy generalization based off presumably zero facts. Yet, most people react to this guy way more than the first person.

We could play an even funner game and say that Dr. Fauci was the person who made the first comment and Kim Kardashian was McLovin....and maybe 2% of people would even look at Fauci's comment.

There’s no need to be snippy. Perhaps things look different from Wisconsin, but I’m in the biggest megalopolis in the world, where the trajectory of this disease is quite evident, and a huge population is vulnerable. The latest chart shows the trajectory in the US is climbing even more steeply than was the case in Italy. Italy is a horror show right now, if you haven’t noticed. We’re not far behind. I do think some of the governors from both parties have been doing a great job out my way, and hope their efforts will flatten the curve. There’s going to be a lot of pain either way. The business community here in DC is not taking this at all lightly. It’s not possible to run a business with much of your workforce in the hospital and caring for sick family members and for kids who cannot go to school. We’re the ones agreeing with Dr. Fauci, that strong measures need to be taken to flatten the curve. But keep punching at those straw-men, amigo.

[TswaneNguni]

You do not send a soldier into battle without bullets
You do not send healthworkers into battle without PPE

No PPE , No Healthcare workers .

Governments need to explain how there can be enough bullets,but not enough PPE

SARS and Ebola was more than enough warning .

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

Same here.

Quick update from my Philly neighborhood. Both of our local supermarkets are restocked - plenty of meat, poultry, fresh fruit and veg - even wine and beer. Staff crazy busy restocking. The closest supermarket has a disinfecting station with a huge pulley system to dunk an entire shopping cart in solution. There were a few things out of stock, but nothing I'd consider essential. Overall, it feels like our stores are back to normal.

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

You do send a soldier into battle without bullets
You do not send healthworkers into battle without PPE

No PPE , No Healthcare workers .

Governments need to explain how there can be enough bullets,but not enough PPE

SARS and Ebola was more than enough warning .

[statsman]

There is not one situation template for America. You have hot spots, like NYC, requiring great government intervention (hospital ships, National Guard assembling field hospitals) and great sacrifices by residents and local businesses. And you have places like Andrews, TX, with no cases. Shutting down things in Andrews makes as much sense as not shutting down in NYC.

I would like to see our National US leaders lay out a return to normalcy plan like this, marked by measurable standards rather than polls and feel-good deadlines:

1. Testing must be nationally available on demand. Nothing reopens until this milestone is passed.
2. The federal government must have a process to keep quarantined workers “while” financially. We can’t have financial stresses driving people to break quarantine.
3. A county may return to normalcy if it can demonstrate that new cases are not increasing, it has hospital capacity for twice the current case, it has a government managed entity for driving testing to all contacts of new cases, and a support system for all cases hospitalized or quarantined at home.

Clearly, different regions will return at different rates. This can serve as an incentive to counties and towns to make quick progress on support issues. Second, such a system would require regions with no cases to take measures to monitor and prepare for cases.

A look at cases across the US map shows the 20-80 rule applies: 20% of the country is providing 80% of the cases. We should use that to our advantage.

[THC]

Originally Posted by statsman

There is not one situation template for America. You have hot spots, like NYC, requiring great government intervention (hospital ships, National Guard assembling field hospitals) and great sacrifices by residents and local businesses. And you have places like Andrews, TX, with no cases. Shutting down things in Andrews makes as much sense as not shutting down in NYC.

I would like to see our National US leaders lay out a return to normalcy plan like this, marked by measurable standards rather than polls and feel-good deadlines:

1. Testing must be nationally available on demand. Nothing reopens until this milestone is passed.
2. The federal government must have a process to keep quarantined workers “while” financially. We can’t have financial stresses driving people to break quarantine.

3. A county may return to normalcy if it can demonstrate that new cases are not increasing, it has hospital capacity for twice the current case, it has a government managed entity for driving testing to all contacts of new cases, and a support system for all cases hospitalized or quarantined at home.

Clearly, different regions will return at different rates. This can serve as an incentive to counties and towns to make quick progress on support issues. Second, such a system would require regions with no cases to take measures to monitor and prepare for cases.

A look at cases across the US map shows the 20-80 rule applies: 20% of the country is providing 80% of the cases. We should use that to our advantage.

This is excellent

[77T]

Originally Posted by McLovin

There’s no need to be snippy.

I agree and apologize if my use of the image brought the wrong reaction from that poster.

What Pickett’s and your post illustrated to me were the bookends to the volumes of different experiences and reactions to the same disease. Whether Atlantic Coast or Pacific Coast, there are a million different situations.

I wanted to illustrate how we must all accommodate and adapt to the different experiences our members here will express.



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[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by statsman

There is not one situation template for America. You have hot spots, like NYC, requiring great government intervention (hospital ships, National Guard assembling field hospitals) and great sacrifices by residents and local businesses. And you have places like Andrews, TX, with no cases. Shutting down things in Andrews makes as much sense as not shutting down in NYC.

I would like to see our National US leaders lay out a return to normalcy plan like this, marked by measurable standards rather than polls and feel-good deadlines:

1. Testing must be nationally available on demand. Nothing reopens until this milestone is passed.
2. The federal government must have a process to keep quarantined workers “while” financially. We can’t have financial stresses driving people to break quarantine.
3. A county may return to normalcy if it can demonstrate that new cases are not increasing, it has hospital capacity for twice the current case, it has a government managed entity for driving testing to all contacts of new cases, and a support system for all cases hospitalized or quarantined at home.

Clearly, different regions will return at different rates. This can serve as an incentive to counties and towns to make quick progress on support issues. Second, such a system would require regions with no cases to take measures to monitor and prepare for cases.

A look at cases across the US map shows the 20-80 rule applies: 20% of the country is providing 80% of the cases. We should use that to our advantage.

Great idea! NYC is not Western Kansas....Major cities will continue to be the hot spots forat least the next month.....if its spreads to smaller cities/towns .....then review as needed.

[statsman]

At some point, and it may be happening now, people will drive away from NY and Seattle, to “cool” spots like Kansas and South Dakota. Those places need to be ready.

[77T]

While we are in this situation let’s remember that the topic is the disease.

Not how my government or yours is not meeting your perception of what should be done.

Not about your personal perception about a member’s reaction to this is “bad”.

Not about the relationship between a nation's investment in defense and civilian goods.

Please help keep the thread open and low maintenance for the Mods.


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[cop414]

Originally Posted by 77T

While we are in this situation let’s remember that the topic is the disease.

Not how my government or yours is not meeting your perception of what should be done.

Not about your personal perception about a member’s reaction to this is “bad”.

Not about the relationship between a nation's investment in defense and civilian goods.

Please help keep the thread open and low maintenance for the Mods.


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Well said Paul, thank you. You guys are pretty much self policing this thread and it’s appreciated.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by statsman

At some point, and it may be happening now, people will drive away from NY and Seattle, to “cool” spots like Kansas and South Dakota. Those places need to be ready.

I've been wondering about this. Apparently this happened in Italy too as people migrated to second homes to "get away" from the virus. Is there anything in the vast US nation to stop people migrating out of NYC or other hotpots and spreading it further afield?

[statsman]

Well, we have freedom of movement. That’s kind of baked in. It makes the job harder.

We can’t take his problem on like the PRC did. Frankly, as admirable as the ROK was in handling it, some of their practices infringe on civil liberties more than I like (or more than is constitutional).

I had this discussion with my ten year old daughter last week- that the US constitution does not “grant” any rights. We believe that all humans are born with these rights, and the role of the constitution is to guarantee and protect those rights.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I've been wondering about this. Apparently this happened in Italy too as people migrated to second homes to "get away" from the virus. Is there anything in the vast US nation to stop people migrating out of NYC or other hotpots and spreading it further afield?

Folks are flocking from NYC and Philly to their vacation homes down the shore.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200322.html

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Folks are flocking from NYC and Philly to their vacation homes down the shore.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200322.html

We had something similar - locals putting up signs saying "Go home idiots".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
But yeah ... in a country like ours with complete freedom of movement and no state lines even, it is impossible to police. Hence Boris went for "lockdown" last night.
Do you think lockdown is coming to the US soon?