the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Lol-x

Bro, droplets/specs of blood coughed up on a tissue is not good or usual for a cold or flu.

Coughing up blood specks or droplets in this setting is almost certainly a sign of more severe airway inflammation than influenza or cold. As has been said before, you need to assume that you have the virus. Avoid people as much as possible, and seek treatment if your breathing problems worsen. The fact that you can’t get tested is a travesty.

Speaking of not getting tested, my daughter continues to improve. I’d bet thousands that she has Covid-19, but for now we won’t know, as she didn’t qualify for testing either.

[Moggo]

Prince Charles got tested and has COVID-19.

Met the hidden NHS testing criteria clause - VIP.


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[watchmework]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Coughing up blood specks or droplets in this setting is almost certainly a sign of more severe airway inflammation than influenza or cold. As has been said before, you need to assume that you have the virus. Avoid people as much as possible, and seek treatment if your breathing problems worsen. The fact that you can’t get tested is a travesty.

Speaking of not getting tested, my daughter continues to improve. I’d bet thousands that she has Covid-19, but for now we won’t know, as she didn’t qualify for testing either.

Wishing your daughter a speedy and painless recovery Joey, sending thoughts and well wishes.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Prince Charles got tested and has COVID-19. Met the hidden NHS testing criteria clause - VIP.

Interesting how that works.

[hcivic91]

Originally Posted by statsman

So, most of the developed economies are practicing social distancing, hobbling their economies. It is time to start thinking- what if it doesn’t work? What if the curve doesn’t flatten?

(History, not politics) in the US Great Depression, FDR was elected in 1932 to pull the country out of it. His weapon of choice was a command economy. It didn’t work. So, he tried more command economy, and even more. It never worked. This is why a global depression was a Great Depression in the US. Sometimes, the tools the experts all agree on using don’t work, and you have to figure out what will.

The WSJ had an article noting that Chines say social distancing in wuhan was not the key to halting it, that there were still too many infra-family infections. They say the key was the building of dormitories with enforced quarantine for all positive tests, even those with no symptoms or mild symptoms. The Koreans (with more carrot and less stick) did similar.

Just a thought as we obsess on the curve. And, of course, without adequate and timely testing, there are no plans that can be executed.

Statsman : I’d like your read of the evidence. In previous posts I’ve stated that even with bending the curve 60% still need to get the virus before it begins to go away. Social distancing does not change that percentage just delays it. It feels to me like the whole world views social distancing as a cure meaning it will make the bug go away. Seems like your thinking may be heading in the 60% direction?

As a mathematician, I’d point those interested to the ‘mathematical modeling of infectious disease.’ The first equation on the page implies that with an R-0 of ~2.5, 60% need antibodies before herd immunity kicks in.

Others like to weigh in?

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Coughing up blood specks or droplets in this setting is almost certainly a sign of more severe airway inflammation than influenza or cold. As has been said before, you need to assume that you have the virus. Avoid people as much as possible, and seek treatment if your breathing problems worsen. The fact that you can’t get tested is a travesty.

Speaking of not getting tested, my daughter continues to improve. I’d bet thousands that she has Covid-19, but for now we won’t know, as she didn’t qualify for testing either.

Sorry to hear about your daughter. The lack of testing is sad. In the aftermath, hopefully both her and I can get tested to confirm we've already had it.

There has been no blood or chest pain today, just a fever. My (lay) advice to everyone is to do everything they can to avoid exposure. If exposed, no one should assume they will be able to access testing or healthcare.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Prince Charles got tested and has COVID-19.

Met the hidden NHS testing criteria clause - VIP.


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You have a source for this VIP claim? Sky News said he met the testing criteria due to his age (71). Either way, can you imagine the plunge in national morale among the majority of the country if he succumbs to this?

[Malak]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Prince Charles got tested and has COVID-19.

Met the hidden NHS testing criteria clause - VIP.

He always disinfects with Laphroaig.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by hcivic91

Statsman : I’d like your read of the evidence. In previous posts I’ve stated that even with bending the curve 60% still need to get the virus before it begins to go away. Social distancing does not change that percentage just delays it. It feels to me like the whole world views social distancing as a cure meaning it will make the bug go away. Seems like your thinking may be heading in the 60% direction?

As a mathematician, I’d point those interested to the ‘mathematical modeling of infectious disease.’ The first equation on the page implies that with an R-0 of ~2.5, 60% need antibodies before herd immunity kicks in.

Others like to weigh in?

This is key - only two outcomes. We either get to 60% infected and recovered or we get a vaccine before we reach that point in time. Bending the curve is only to manage the caseloads impact on resources but the end point is the same - 60% or vaccine.

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Coughing up blood specks or droplets in this setting is almost certainly a sign of more severe airway inflammation than influenza or cold. As has been said before, you need to assume that you have the virus. Avoid people as much as possible, and seek treatment if your breathing problems worsen. The fact that you can’t get tested is a travesty.

Speaking of not getting tested, my daughter continues to improve. I’d bet thousands that she has Covid-19, but for now we won’t know, as she didn’t qualify for testing either.

My wife's grandson told me at first they were not going to test his wife because they only have 7 test kits left....then they found out she was type 1 diabetic and they used one kit on her .....this makes me think there could be 100's out there with with the corona virus thinking its just flu...and they continue spreading it. Im just dumbfounded at the lack of testing kits in Houston area
and its the largest medical facility it the country.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by hcivic91

Statsman : I’d like your read of the evidence. In previous posts I’ve stated that even with bending the curve 60% still need to get the virus before it begins to go away. Social distancing does not change that percentage just delays it. It feels to me like the whole world views social distancing as a cure meaning it will make the bug go away. Seems like your thinking may be heading in the 60% direction?

As a mathematician, I’d point those interested to the ‘mathematical modeling of infectious disease.’ The first equation on the page implies that with an R-0 of ~2.5, 60% need antibodies before herd immunity kicks in.

Others like to weigh in?

What you say is true. But, due to the seriousness of the crisis, my focus has shifted to the two nations that had real outbreaks and got them under control, without 60% of their population getting infected. If that is an available path, I think we should look into it (preferring the more liberal ROK approach).

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

You have a source for this VIP claim? Sky News said he met the testing criteria due to his age (71). Either way, can you imagine the plunge in national morale among the majority of the country if he succumbs to this?

The VIP bit was a joke but is clearly true, famous/rich tested no problem. Working frontline with high risk people, sorry no testing!

Over 70 is not a criteria for testing. Also we were all told not to travel and to stay in our main residence. He’s gone to Scotland!

Inequality just gets highlighted even more in tough times. I bet he’s having a nightmare getting a delivery slot for his food shopping.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by statsman

What you say is true. But, due to the seriousness of the crisis, my focus has shifted to the two nations that had real outbreaks and got them under control, without 60% of their population getting infected. If that is an available path, I think we should look into it (preferring the more liberal ROK approach).

Would the outcome be the same?

In other words the area under the two curves (one country allows COVID to spike versus one that flattens the curve).

Absent a vaccine during either method, the advantage of flattening the curve is to develop novel therapies that avoid patients deteriorating into ARDS and expiring needlessly.


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[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by Moggo

The VIP bit was a joke but is clearly true, famous/rich tested no problem. Working frontline with high risk people, sorry no testing!

Over 70 is not a criteria for testing. Also we were all told not to travel and to stay in our main residence. He’s gone to Scotland!

Inequality just gets highlighted even more in tough times. I bet he’s having a nightmare getting a delivery slot for his food shopping.


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Hardly a joking matter is it?

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Hardly a joking matter is it?

"Charles was tested on Monday after qualifying for an NHS test due to age and medical condition criteria in Aberdeenshire. He received the results on Tuesday. It is thought he was tested at Birkhall, his home on the Queen’s Balmoral estate in Aberdeenshire."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...or-coronavirus

[superdog]

Okay. A few people have asked me what my doctor told me, so I will share.

Please understand that I am paraphrasing. And remember her husband is on the frontline at Holy Name Hospital in Teaneck. So, I am getting her first hand experience. And FWIW, she is very concerned for her colleagues. She has not been asked to join the fight as of yet. Neither has one of my best buddies who is a nurse in FLA.

Clearly, much of what she said is no surprise and has already been discussed here ad nauseum.

It is very scary. It spreads very fast. It has likely infected far more people than are being reported. The increase in tests has helped to determine the mortality rate is around 2%. But in fact, it is likely a lot lower than that because so many more people have it and simply don't know it. For those that do perish, the disease also tends to move very fast in that regard.

The virus can live on a surface for over 2 weeks.

Very likely it is impossible to contain. If the world shuts down and reopens with even a few people still infected, it will come back. Even a C-Shot (similar to a flu shot) will likely not be able to wipe out this virus. This is likely going to be around for the foreseeable future. There is every possibility, that similar to the flu, this will be seasonal. Comparisons to the flu are both not fair and fair. Not fair because it is not flu. It is very different. Fair because it most closely resembles the flu in a lot of ways and we have no other point of reference.

It does appear to be worse for certain demographics (similar to the flu), but young people are getting sick as well. They have a better chance of healing than those that have underlying issues. Healthy people can get sick and die. However, by and large, this is attacking the older, the heavy, and the people with weak immune systems or rather immune compromised systems.

My personal commentary, which is likely not a surprise to many based on many of my comments:

This is super scary. I have seen the videos and pictures in hospitals. And it is horrifying.

But there is no good answer. And given how contagious this is, I am not sure all of the efforts are going to help in the grand scheme. I am in the camp that wants to mitigate the effects on both sides of the health challenge and the economic challenge.

I do think we need to find a balanced approach.

If we could beat this thing by shutting down the world, I would be all for that. Sign me up. However, that does not appear to be possible. Not even remotely so.

It sounds like we need to take extra precautions with those at highest risk and they should stay isolated as long as possible. And we certainly need to continue social distancing. We should never implement hand shaking as a greeting ever again. But it also sounds like we need find a way to proceed forward with this new challenge, lest we throw out the baby with the bath water.

Those cultures that kiss on each cheek or even one, as a greeting should ban that forever as well.

People should stop smoking cigarettes. They should be banned forever. People should exercise and eat fruits and vegetables.

People hoarding things should all be put in one city, together. And locked in. Forever. With a finite amount of supplies. It should be televised.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Hardly a joking matter is it?

Disagree. Humour in the face of adversity is a deeply ingrained trait of the English and a very good thing. Black humour is rife here.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Hardly a joking matter is it?

I disagree, I wasn’t joking about him being ill. Read it again.

I see you ignored the rest of what I said

I’m guessing you think it’s justified, no problem, we all have opinions.


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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Disagree. Humour in the face of adversity is a deeply ingrained trait of the English and a very good thing. Black humour is rife here.

Thank you


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[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Disagree. Humour in the face of adversity is a deeply ingrained trait of the English and a very good thing. Black humour is rife here.

I know. I'm English.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

I know. I'm English.

Me too. Have you seen the Nicola Sturgeon spoof? Comedy gold. There are many more.

[Moggo]

I apologise if my humour was inappropriate


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[Mr. Miami]

Waited outside for an hour at Target, they had senior hours today I believed. Got TP and paper towel and it was limited 1 per person. I guess if you need it be prepared to get up early and wait in line.

[77T]

Adam knows best.

But please refrain from joking - Padi (another Mod) sent someone infraction points for joking just over the line - he felt there’s a jokes thread for those.

Eventually someone can take it the wrong way...


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[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by superdog

People hoarding things should all be put in one city, together. And locked in. Forever. With a finite amount of supplies. It should be televised.

Could you define hoarding? Did you yourself not stock up on supplies early on, like I did (thought I remember reading you did this, and sealing everything in plastic containers)... I wouldn't say I hoarded, but got a few more items planning for long term, like dried beans, rices, pasta, etc. all before the media frenzy.

I think people are harshly criticizing hoarders, and it's very unfortunate that has come to this, but I can also understand the frenzy give the nature of the situation. I seriously don't want to leave my house for months, and I know I'm going to need to eventually though. I did not get nearly enough toilet paper for the record, but I have not run out yet. Hopefully the situation gets under control for everybody before too long.

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Okay. A few people have asked me what my doctor told me, so I will share.

Please understand that I am paraphrasing. .

Your doc’s advise was very much on the cautious side and that makes sense. Nothing wrong with being cautious (insert belt & suspenders metaphor here).

I’m having some painting done on outside of home. So keeping distance and full precautions. If they sneeze on outside I’ll just assume it’s contaminated for 2 weeks. Doesn’t hurt even if science later tells us it was 2 days.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Could you define hoarding? Did you yourself not stock up on supplies early on, like I did (thought I remember reading you did this)... I wouldn't say I hoarded, but got a few more items planning for long term all before the media frenzy.

I think people are harshly criticizing hoarders, and it's very unfortunate that has come to this, but I can also understand the frenzy give the nature of the situation. I seriously don't want to leave my house for months, and I know I'm going to need to eventually though. I did not get nearly enough toilet paper for the record, but I have not run out yet. Hopefully the situation gets under control for everybody before too long.

inevitable I suppose. sigh..

interesting that you picked up that out of all the I wrote.

yes, I did stock up. In fact, when I stocked up it was well before the panic. I was one of 3 people in the entire store and everything was fully stocked. I did not pick up any more than myself and my wife reasonably needed.

When things started to get nuts, my wife ordered some extra of everything on amazon. Nothing more than we could reasonably need. when we found out delivery services were 7-10 days out, we ordered some more...knowing that we would soon be out of what we bought.

that said, hoarders are the ones that have months of supplies on hand that they will likely never need. The ones that have way more than they could ever use. The ones that you see fighting in the videos. the ones that fill up because it is there and they are terrified someone will get something that they might need in the future.

I have enough to get by. And every few days I go back to the market with gloves on and sanitizer and wipes and I pick up some more eggs and whatever fruits and vegetables I can find. so far, I have not had trouble finding anything except for toilet paper and paper towels.

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by superdog

Those cultures that kiss on each cheek or even one, as a greeting should ban that forever as well.

People should stop smoking cigarettes. They should be banned forever.

If you're advocating the banning of certain behaviors to stop the spread of the virus I'm surprised you omitted the most obvious and logical after kissing; consuming alcohol.

Drinking alcohol lowers inhibitions and causes people to act carelessly, letting their guard down among friends, family, and even strangers at parties, weddings, homes, it matters not where when it's alcohol-fueled. Some it causes to feel invincible and/or act downright stupidly.

Smokers are already social pariahs and people keep their distance, avoiding them. There's almost no crowded place where smoking is allowed, they're usually a solitary figure outside somewhere, and doesn't alter behavior or lower inhibitions. Also, the virus doesn't float along clinging to smoke particles whereas it can be transmitted easily through the slobber and spittle flecks of a drunk.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by CRM114

If you're advocating the banning of certain behaviors to stop the spread of the virus I'm surprised you omitted the most obvious and logical after kissing; consuming alcohol.

Drinking alcohol lowers inhibitions and causes people to act carelessly, letting their guard down among friends, family, and even strangers at parties, weddings, homes, it matters not where when it's alcohol-fueled. Some it causes to feel invincible and/or act downright stupidly.

Smokers are already social pariahs and people keep their distance, avoiding them. There's almost no crowded place where smoking is allowed. Also, the virus doesn't float along clinging to smoke particles whereas it can be transmitted easily through the slobber and spittle flecks of a drunk.

lmao. I knew I should not have posted any personal thoughts. and I assumed it would be a challenge from you in some way, before I even read your actual words.

my mistake. I was also obviously being a bit sarcastic. I did not mean to actually put the hoarders on an island together and televise it either. I apologize for attempt at humor.

for smoking, almost my entire team smokes. including my best friend and COO. I worry for him and them. If they get this virus, I would assume that smoking would make them more susceptible to the more severe problems.

in this case, for me, it is not about spreading the disease. it is about reducing the possibility of, when it takes hold, that it gets worse. I personally think nearly everyone is going to get it anyway. no matter what we do.

but yes, if we are going to really debate banning behaviors based on this virus than alcohol would be logical. Not only for the reasons you say, but also because it lowers the immune system and would make someone more susceptible to getting the more severe effects of the disease.

for the record, I was being facetious. Besides social distancing, I do not think we should be banning anyones behaviors. Sorry if that came off wrong.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by superdog

inevitable I suppose. sigh..

interesting that you picked up that out of all the I wrote.

yes, I did stock up. In fact, when I stocked up it was well before the panic. I was one of 3 people in the entire store and everything was fully stocked. I did not pick up any more than myself and my wife reasonably needed.

When things started to get nuts, my wife ordered some extra of everything on amazon. Nothing more than we could reasonably need. when we found out delivery services were 7-10 days out, we ordered some more...knowing that we would soon be out of what we bought.

that said, hoarders are the ones that have months of supplies on hand that they will likely never need. The ones that have way more than they could ever use. The ones that you see fighting in the videos. the ones that fill up because it is there and they are terrified someone will get something that they might need in the future.

I have enough to get by. And every few days I go back to the market with gloves on and sanitizer and wipes and I pick up some more eggs and whatever fruits and vegetables I can find. so far, I have not had trouble finding anything except for toilet paper and paper towels.

Interesting? It was the only thing you wrote that stuck out like a sore thumb. It was not factual and completely emotion based, calling out a behavior that you yourself did to a degree. And I don't fault you. I did the same. But that was a rather harsh thing to a say either way, and not remotely realistic.

I think rationing could be the way forward until we can get through the mess, if ever. It seems stores are implementing that now for certain items. Makes sense.