Will vintage Rolex hype stop?

[roh123]

Originally Posted by BristolCavendish

Agreed (even if hindsight is 20/20). The question remains, who has the foresight to predict such things?

Who knows. If you don't want to risk it; today would be a good day to sell.

Personally my watches are already paid and done and I enjoy them as is. If prices go down it just means I can buy more.

[bluemartinifan]

18 months ago I traded an exceptional unpolished 16750 w matte dial and $2000 to a well known dealer for an exceptional black dial Zenith Daytona.
Trade value on my GMT was 7k the Daytona was priced at 9k.
Today the GMT would sell north of 10k and Zenith Daytona black dial asking prices are 15k+. That is approx 40% up for the GMT and 75% up for the Daytona.
By the way I just paid 7k for an exceptional 16710 w B&P.
5 digit GMTs have seriously moved up as well.
What will the future bring - no one knows. My collection is now down to a 5513, 16710 and 4 other vintage brands (a Heuer, IWC, Zenith) only owning what I want to wear. As a flipper, I buy, knowing I will be selling within a year or so. I only buy what I am confident I can sell for close to my buy price. Now I am not confident I can easily resell a 4 digit piece at current asking prices.

[Loevhagen]

And now the Kermit is sold - but Red Sub not...

https://www.hqmilton.com/timepieces/...nd-papers-9054

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

Some 5-digit Subs are in the Red Subs territory. Maybe 4-digit / vintage is stagnating and not collapsing. That would be healthy.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

And now the Kermit is sold - but Red Sub not...

https://www.hqmilton.com/timepieces/...nd-papers-9054

Point being?

[Gina Marie]

the mark1/1 unpolished kermits are hard to find....really hard. This will trade stronger than any other variation except the y serials. Not sure this is a good barometer of the 5 digit references. The Kermit mark1/1 to me is like the omega snoopy....cool and not that common. pile on the unpolished feature and you have a watch in the low teens. Thankfully i got mine a year and a half ago unpolished full set for much much less...almost half....at the time seemed high but now i guess not.

[saskmh]

Originally Posted by pl2se

I know watch collecting isn't about money. But I would like to admit that it's of some importance. I have spent more than a health amount of money on watches. And I'm not a rich guy so I definitely need to take such rings as value into consideration. As an example, the 1675 I own has increased rather much last years. It's nearly mint. Hands and dials show some heavy patina but seams original as well as the bezel. At the moment it's rather appreciated by the market. However, what's your feeling about that? Do you think the vintage trend will keep on? Or will we see a drop in less than perfect examples? I know you can't predict the future but I'm sure you guys can make an educated guess!

BR
Peter

I don't have a crystal ball but I don't think the interest in vintage is a hype. people have always loved and collected antique or vintage pieces of all kinds. what is considered modern today will be vintage in 20 years. What is considered vintage today will become the super vintage grail pieces. That being said....I do remember when bubble backs were all the rage and fetched a decent price. Now they are worth far less. I think when it comes to the professional watches...the Subs, GMT's, Daytonas and Explorers...they will only keep climbing as they get older.

...Just my thoughts.

[zapokee]

Bought a nice gilt 5513 last year. I've already been offered 8 grand more than I paid for it, but I'm holding on.

[BNABOD]

Originally Posted by saskmh

I don't have a crystal ball but I don't think the interest in vintage is a hype. people have always loved and collected antique or vintage pieces of all kinds. what is considered modern today will be vintage in 20 years. What is considered vintage today will become the super vintage grail pieces. That being said....I do remember when bubble backs were all the rage and fetched a decent price. Now they are worth far less. I think when it comes to the professional watches...the Subs, GMT's, Daytonas and Explorers...they will only keep climbing as they get older.



...Just my thoughts.

Seems reasonable to me. Most Everything Of quality that is fairly old usually turns into a decent return later on. The toys I was playing w as a kid 40 years ago are now very hard to find especially these cool metal ones in boxes and so on. Not everything appreciates like the vintage Rolex do but I see no reason for the prices to drop over the next 20 years. Look at cars what I felt was asinine 25 years ago is now completely nuts so .....who knows


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sensui]

I'm not sure if my head is in the right place...but I started out collecting modern pieces on Rolex....then I got sick of the six digits.....then I collected some five digits...and then came vintage four digit stuff...it's an acquired taste in Rolex imo and a different level of appreciation. I think the way Rolex continues the heritage of their watches with core timeless designs (or call it lack of innovations hah), vintage watches will always be relevant....is a bit different talking about cars/antiques etc that's totally changed technically/aesthetically to make past designs obsolete.

[b.wayne]

I believe the poor to average condition vintage watches will suffer when there is a downturn. 90%-100% condition watches will continue to appreciate and 80%-89% will continue to creep up.

[Gina Marie]

Timeless design helps.........when we were kids the sign of success was a nice rolex. Now i am not sure that applies.

I look at old Porsches the same way.....with the advent of electric/hydrogen cars....what happens to the old ice classics....i think for 40 years we are safe since we are all familiar with them but after that who knows.....the kids today will not have an attachment to the cars that are too old for them to remember or appreciate. Same thing happened with model t cars. 20 years ago they were a heck of a lot more expensive....the folks that wanted them are all but gone.....how rolex connects with today's youth will be the value driver for us tomorrow.....or we will just be a shrinking group of old men/ladies trading amongst ourselves.

i enjoy my watches but i will not lie, i do like to check the market and appreciate the fact that i bought before and am in the money now.....if the prices were falling i am not sure i would hold such a large number as i do today......write all you want about non investment, etc.....but some of my watches have out performed my portfolio to date.....you cannot ignore that. The kids of today will buy our watches tomorrow......what they like will drive the market. Hopefully Rolex/Patek/Heuer will do a great job of attaching to them as they did to us.

[DiamondJack]

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......

[jedly1]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......

dohhhhhh !!!

Everything you said.

Buy what you like , it's the first and most important rule , that way if it's worth tuppence tomorrow you will still have something you like .

[roh123]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......

Unfortunately quality trumps full sets nowdays and it is exceptionally rare for great watches to be complete. At least if you look further than matte sports watches.

To be honest full set premium is also lower today than before as the market knows how often sets are put together. Also for older watches papers are often open or hand written. Still great to have but not paramount imho. Each to their own though.

[DiamondJack]

Originally Posted by roh123

Unfortunately quality trumps full sets nowdays and it is exceptionally rare for great watches to be complete. At least if you look further than matte sports watches.

To be honest full set premium is also lower today than before as the market knows how often sets are put together. Also for older watches papers are often open or hand written. Still great to have but not paramount imho. Each to their own though.

I think it depends on what you call a full set....but clearly the quality of the watch is paramount. I also agree that just having the guarantee (with current printing techniques) and general brochures and boxes that can be put together down the line is clearly suspicious since anyone who was the sort of person back then to keep the guarantee would also have kept all of the related personalised paperwork which is what I always looked for.......but again personal choice and I just have always preferred really full sets and even in today's market would pay a premium for a really good watch and complete set....

[DiamondJack]

Originally Posted by jedly1

dohhhhhh !!!

Everything you said.

Buy what you like , it's the first and most important rule , that way if it's worth tuppence tomorrow you will still have something you like .

I know Jed......as you can see....it still plays on my mind......

[roh123]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

I think it depends on what you call a full set....but clearly the quality of the watch is paramount. I also agree that just having the guarantee (with current printing techniques) and general brochures and boxes that can be put together down the line is clearly suspicious since anyone who was the sort of person back then to keep the guarantee would also have kept all of the related personalised paperwork which is what I always looked for.......but again personal choice and I just have always preferred really full sets and even in today's market would pay a premium for a really good watch and complete set....

Sure. The problem for most fun references today is that it is extremely difficult to find great examples. Money isn't really the toughest challenge; finding the top examples is. And if you want to add paperwork including receipt I think we will be stuck around 1970's watches. Of course the rare exceotion but if you go to all the top dealers and auction houses, full set top watches are very few and far in between.

Really depending on what your poison is but if you like gilt watches as an example I think you will have to focus on finding great watches and if they have extras; it's a bonus.

Nothing wrong with your mindset and if you actually find these gems; I'm jelous.

[springer]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......

Please don't overthink this!!! It's a hobby...remember.

[springer]

...

[springer]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

I think it depends on what you call a full set....but clearly the quality of the watch is paramount. I also agree that just having the guarantee (with current printing techniques) and general brochures and boxes that can be put together down the line is clearly suspicious since anyone who was the sort of person back then to keep the guarantee would also have kept all of the related personalised paperwork which is what I always looked for.......but again personal choice and I just have always preferred really full sets and even in today's market would pay a premium for a really good watch and complete set....

Stop it....... you are scaring the kids. Chill and enjoy the hobby.

[jameslee]

Originally Posted by roh123

Only these people? I'd say anyone who owned nice watches the last 5-10 years have a healthy margin.

An example:

Someone that bought a 6239PN new for $400 in 1970 could sell it for 8k 1990. Someone that bought it for 8k in 1990 could today sell it for 150-200k. Or more normal examples like a standard gilt gmt went from $400 in 1970 to around 5k in 2010. Today it is around 25k.

That said.. Profits are only made once realized.

How many 6239PNs that were bought in 1990 at $8K are in the same hands 27 years later? For that matter, how many were in the same hands 15 years later (2005)?

[roh123]

Originally Posted by springer

Stop it....... you are scaring the kids. Chill and enjoy the hobby.

I doubt anyone is scared. Why the sarcasm?

I think most collectors, young and old, would prefer lower prices. Most people are looking to expand and develop their collections so higher prices aren't helping. It is however the current situation so not really much to to do.

It's obviously an interesting discussion eventhough we don't seem to agree. It is still fun to hear different angles and in the end we will all be here with our precious watches. Valuable or not.

[jameslee]

Originally Posted by roh123

Point being?

I think I get the point and the point is that list prices are not always the same as sell prices. Nor are they always a reliable measure of true market value.

[DiamondJack]

Originally Posted by springer

Please don't overthink this!!! It's a hobby...remember.

I'm fully aware this is a hobby but the discussion is about vintage watch prices and where they may or may not go...... there's a lot of money being spent to enter this hobby so a valid discussion IMO.....

I can't see the point of your rather glib comments as I'm simply answering the OP with my thoughts.....Hardly much point in just saying.... it's a hobby.... so don't think about it.....

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......

Great post

[Paul]

[QUOTE=Gina Marie;7763195] ..... Same thing happened with model t cars. 20 years ago they were a heck of a lot more expensive....the folks that wanted them are all but gone ....



I completely agree. Collecting ... and especially passionate collecting is an 'age and stage' thing.


The old car analogy has significance to me. That's the other hobby that sucks money out of me. And I'm acutely aware that I can probably buy a nice honest E-Type Jaguar today for half what it would have cost me twenty years back. That's not necessarily a 'bubble burst' thing .... it's just that the young man who lusted after an E-type in 1962 has now dropped dead or long since abandoned the dream. And the next generation have their sights set on other things.


I have an XK140 Jaguar and the red beast you see in my avatar. When I'm out and about the grey-haired fellas stop to chat and the younger car guys might take a passing interest in my 'old-skool' cars. But when a hot Subaru or tricked up Mazda goes past, the young guys attention is quickly shifted. That's the car they want to own.


And vintage watches ... I believe that our hobby is propped up by fellas who have worn and enjoyed watches since they were young. And the younger watch enthusiasts within the community will often have some childhood influence such as watching the pride and care their Dad or Grandad placed in a watch. Going forward, we'll see less and less of that influence as kids are being bought up by parents who have never even owned a watch and see one as redundant technology.


There will always be watch collectors but I say we'll see a lot less new collectors coming in within say ten years. That's just how it is. And when Rolex or Tudor launch a Smart-Watch ... I'm gonna buy one

[springer]

Originally Posted by roh123

I doubt anyone is scared. Why the sarcasm?

I think most collectors, young and old, would prefer lower prices. Most people are looking to expand and develop their collections so higher prices aren't helping. It is however the current situation so not really much to to do.

It's obviously an interesting discussion eventhough we don't seem to agree. It is still fun to hear different angles and in the end we will all be here with our precious watches. Valuable or not.

You're scaring me now. Especially your erroneous claims about all these fake sets and papered watches being sold. They are a small percentage of the market. Fraudsters have had their way with collectors in all aspects within any hobby. Watch collecting is not new to fraudsters and criminals and unfortunately you'll find them here also. Back to the topic at hand!

[roh123]

Originally Posted by springer

You're scaring me now. Especially your erroneous claims about all these fake sets and papered watches being sold. They are a small percentage of the market. Fraudsters have had their way with collectors in all aspects within any hobby. Watch collecting is not new to fraudsters and criminals and unfortunately you'll find them here also. Back to the topic at hand!

I was talking on-topic. I said the premium for full sets often is lower today than before. In the past you basically had any full set and it was 50% on the market regardless of the watch condition. It was a reply to DiamondJack which mentioned it as super important. Most importantly I said that quality of the watch is key and I weren't talking about matte 1675's or red subs when I say that top watches aren't easily found with full sets. I was talking about rare watches in great condition.

When we (you) are talking about fraud a much bigger concern while speaking about rare watches are fake dials. Just look at the PN example in the other thread. That said lose papers are very easily found and as DiamondJack mentioned there are other things such as an original receipt etc to prove provenance.

Going back on-topic I still think rare watches in great condition are cheap and later non-rare watches are expensive. Much is explained by the hype of vintage which leads to record prices for top watches and when people aren't able to understand top prices it pushes prices for less great watches up. This could very well be a bubble but I don't see it as dangerous for vintage watches itself when poor quality is overpriced. That will correct by itself no doubt. Personally I believe great watches will continue up as those buying that kind of quality are different people that is buying less rare watches in average or poor condition.

That said.. Who knows? I make my money through honest work and I have my watches for enjoymeny. If my collection moves in value it just means my next purchase will be further away. As I am not planning to make an exit I would really prefer if prices for great watches dropped. I just don't see it happening.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by Paul

And vintage watches ... I believe that our hobby is propped up by fellas who have worn and enjoyed watches since they were young. And the younger watch enthusiasts within the community will often have some childhood influence such as watching the pride and care their Dad or Grandad placed in a watch. Going forward, we'll see less and less of that influence as kids are being bought up by parents who have never even owned a watch and see one as redundant technology.


There will always be watch collectors but I say we'll see a lot less new collectors coming in within say ten years. That's just how it is. And when Rolex or Tudor launch a Smart-Watch ... I'm gonna buy one

From my point of view many of the old school guys who grew up with the watches are the rare ones exiting now. Many times for obvious reasons but that has either already happened or is happening now. When I meet collectors or dealers nowdays it is obvious they are much youger than you think. It is really not the people that grew up dreaming about a Rolex but is rather the people who collect beautiful things. I'd say many are born in the 80's and 90's and they are quickly building great collections. It is not people turning 50 or 60 finally treating themselves with a dream watch. I'm sure you have those too but you do have a lot of new, young collectors gaining interest in vintage. Buying a great vintage watch is so much more interesting than stepping into a store to buy a new watch with no charm.

I don't see smart watches as a threat when it comes to luxury watches. Smart watches is rather competing with our smart phones. People aren't buying watches for time-keeping; they buy them as beautiful and interesting accessories. I don't know about you but I often catch myself checking the time on my phone rather than on my wrist. Still I enjoy my watch way more than my iphone.

[Loevhagen]

I can relate to this post.

Originally Posted by DiamondJack

A crystal ball would be fantastic..... but as we all know, it's impossible to predict the future other than death and taxes of course.....

Every market in any investment, commodity or collectible will be cyclical.... they will just vary in timeframe, duration and level of volatility.

I think we have seen a sort of perfect storm;

1) Current levels of return on cash is having an impact and is drawing many investors in to watch collecting simply because they would earn nothing or even pay to hold cash in some currencies like euros for example.

2) The press have been all over watch collecting over the last few years with stories of this or that celebrity etc.

3) The internet has created a true global market in terms of maximising prices for all markets,

4) Facebook, instagram and twitter etc have allowed watch collectors to build a sort of global notoriety by showcasing their collections and building demand from wannabe's helping to feed all our addictions......

5) Watch funds are growing in popularity and these have the resources to just gobble up the best examples that come to auction. This in turn drags up the prices of the lower quality examples.

I have luckily only ever bought full sets and I mean full sets with everything even down to the original receipts. I remember reading doubleredseadweller.com years ago and the author stressing the only way to future proof your collection was to buy full sets.

My concern with lower quality pieces and loose pieces is that prices have just been pulled along by the prices of the really collectable full sets and rare birds. These lower quality pieces tend to be bought by the smaller collector and people scared of being left behind. IMO, these are the watches most at risk and the ones that will suffer the most volatility and depreciation if sentiment does ever change.....

But what do I know..... I turned down a lovely PN Daytona from Jedly with a letter of authentication from Rolex a few years back for £60k because I thought even then that prices for PNs was a little toppy...... Now their getting on for double that .......a scary thought especially when PNs are not all that rare compared to say MilSubs where numbers are very limited ......just not with the same wow factor from a public perception point of view.....which again adds another risk...fashion trends and.taste.

Anyway my 2 cents.......