APs and VCs Not Moving?

[GoldMatch92]

Hi folks,

I’ve been watching the market for the last couple months and it seems like the AP and VC inventory is just sitting. Haven’t seen much price lowering (at least on the models I’m looking at). Is this your impression as well? If so, why aren’t dealers lowering prices so they can free up cash to make money on other pieces that will move more quickly?

[Kinnakeet]

Grand Seiko as well.

[Nikrnic]

News to me. I havent been paying close attention to the market lately. I sold my VC Overseas 18 months ago.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[RTG]

Hold your fire. The time to buy will be when you read reports of grey dealers jumping from roof tops.

[Calatrava r]

Both brands were due for a correction. Prices got too high. It is hard to know what prices dealers actually are selling these for at any given time.

[enjoythemusic]

Yeah, the whole bubble market popped... and 1960s 'Trinity' fable no longer has any traction... so it kinda lost its' luster. Plus there's so many great timepieces by much better brands, or perhaps nearly the same at a lower cost.

Wait 8 to 10 years as the next bubble could be nice.

[Speedbird-1]

Is anyone paying the ridiculous over-priced ticket for already overpriced RRP Pateks?

34K over retail, for a run of the mill 5167A-001 that looks like a Seiko?

[Easy E]

The prices haven’t moved because the dealers are in too steep.

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by speedbird-1

is anyone paying the ridiculous over-priced ticket for already overpriced rrp pateks?

34k over retail, for a run of the mill 5167a-001 that looks like a seiko?

+1

[break]

Originally Posted by Easy E

The prices haven’t moved because the dealers are in too steep.

This is my current theory, as dealers can’t realize losses from selling if they don’t sell… unless they mark their inventory to market (I suspect they don’t).

I had expected this to change towards end of year, and we’ve seen a dip in sale and listing prices per Subdial, WatchCharts, C24 etc. But some dealers really seem to be holding out.

[2loaded]

AP I can understand
As others have said, dealers in too deep...

[buddenfan]

Originally Posted by GoldMatch92

Hi folks,

I’ve been watching the market for the last couple months and it seems like the AP and VC inventory is just sitting. Haven’t seen much price lowering (at least on the models I’m looking at). Is this your impression as well? If so, why aren’t dealers lowering prices so they can free up cash to make money on other pieces that will move more quickly?

Recession and inflation. People got mortgages car payments and kids to feed

[kaiserphoenix]

Well, AP, VC, PP, its not that simple. Certain references from these brands, particularly AP and PP are still selling well and very much above MSRP, usual suspects like 5968A, 5711, 5811G etc you get the idea and AP RO, like SS Blue dials, DBs, ceramics etc.

However VC OVerseas, AP Code 11s, Patek complications/GCs, these are all trading WELL below msrp now and very difficult to sell vs last year. AP Code 11 in particular are now even on displays at boutiques which wasnt the case 1-2 years ago.

[GoldMatch92]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

News to me. I havent been paying close attention to the market lately. I sold my VC Overseas 18 months ago.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wow! That’s some great timing!

[GoldMatch92]

Originally Posted by Easy E

The prices haven’t moved because the dealers are in too steep.

Sounds like a prime example of the sunk cost fallacy. The longer they hold out, the more they’re going to lose. Their business is buying and selling watches. So why not write off the loss, free up some cash and buy something else that will make them money quickly? Then rinse and repeat.

[SoylentGreenChi]

I don’t follow the after market prices too much, but I got a glimpse over the past two weeks when I looked to trade in my two year old AP Royal Oak (full set) and got a mix of 1) we don’t want the watch at this time at any price or 2) offers thousands of dollars below MSRP (for a watch that two years ago was an allocation piece at the boutique, and still lists about 50% above list on the aftermarket). My guess is that the watch is still an allocation piece at the boutique, but basically unsellable on the grey market at anything at/above msrp.


.

[GoldMatch92]

Originally Posted by SoylentGreenChi

I don’t follow the after market prices too much, but I got a glimpse over the past two weeks when I looked to trade in my two year old AP Royal Oak (full set) and got a mix of 1) we don’t want the watch at this time at any price or 2) offers thousands of dollars below MSRP (for a watch that two years ago was an allocation piece at the boutique) and listing about 50% above list on the aftermarket. My guess is that the watch is still an allocation piece at the boutique, but basically unsellable on the grey market at anything close to MSRP.

I’m in the market for a Royal Oak. Which reference are you looking to sell?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by SoylentGreenChi

I don’t follow the after market prices too much, but I got a glimpse over the past two weeks when I looked to trade in my two year old AP Royal Oak (full set) and got a mix of 1) we don’t want the watch at this time at any price or 2) offers thousands of dollars below MSRP (for a watch that two years ago was an allocation piece at the boutique) and still listing about 50% above list on the aftermarket. My guess is that the watch is still an allocation piece at the boutique, but basically unsellable on the grey market at anything at/above msrp.


.

Not to mention the increased difficulty in selling APs in general due to the threat of blacklisting if the new owner registers it online.

[Nathan_]

Dealers make money when they buy, not sell

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Easy E

The prices haven’t moved because the dealers are in too steep.

Talking to a few dealers recently, that does seem to be the case. Hopefully by Q2 2024 it'll be time to scoop up the deals :)

[shafran]

I think prices will drop after the Christmas bump.

[GoldMatch92]

Originally Posted by shafran

I think prices will drop after the Christmas bump.

Here’s hoping!

[Gebbeth]

I've seen 3rd gen Overseas black dial chronos at below retail now. Blue is still up there, but only for a couple of thousand over retail. I gotta believe this trend will continue to the point where blue dials will be at retail, if not slightly below, with bigger discounts on the black and then the silver dial (minus the reverse panda silver dials).

I thought I even saw a brown dial chrono at close to retail price.

[GoldMatch92]

Originally Posted by Gebbeth

I've seen 3rd gen Overseas black dial chronos at below retail now. Blue is still up there, but only for a couple of thousand over retail. I gotta believe this trend will continue to the point where blue dials will be at retail, if not slightly below, with bigger discounts on the black and then the silver dial (minus the reverse panda silver dials).

I thought I even saw a brown dial chrono at close to retail price.

Since you mentioned Overseas Chrono, I’m curious if the recently announced improvements of the 5520V will drive prices down even lower on the chunkier 5500V models.

[rolexandlange]

I took the plunge on a 15202, i bet I could buy it $5-$10k cheaper today. However, I've ended up enjoying this watch and AP a lot more than I expected. I also traded in some pieces for the 15202 including my 4300v that are now worth less, which I was wearing less, and so it's a win for me.

The VC Overseas 4300v is an excellent watch, highly versatile. With 3 straps and robustness, beauty, heft and presence all in one package, it could be your one an only (similar can be said for modern pepsi ceramic). However, it just lacks the specialness that a heritage piece like the 15202 has in my humble opinion, and I am less drawn to all rounders as my collection sort of has specialist pieces that form an all around collection rather than focus on an all around watch.

[djona]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

I took the plunge on a 15202, i bet I could buy it $5-$10k cheaper today. However, I've ended up enjoying this watch and AP a lot more than I expected. I also traded in some pieces for the 15202 including my 4300v that are now worth less, which I was wearing less, and so it's a win for me.

The VC Overseas 4300v is an excellent watch, highly versatile. With 3 straps and robustness, beauty, heft and presence all in one package, it could be your one an only (similar can be said for modern pepsi ceramic). However, it just lacks the specialness that a heritage piece like the 15202 has in my humble opinion, and I am less drawn to all rounders as my collection sort of has specialist pieces that form an all around collection rather than focus on an all around watch.

I like your philosophy.

[RolexSimon]

Moda auctions probably the best idea of where the "real" market value lies right now.
US$26,400 was last price for a blue dial 2022 VC overseas with papers but no box.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix

Not to mention the increased difficulty in selling APs in general due to the threat of blacklisting if the new owner registers it online.

Good point. If there is no easy out of the AP watches bought at retail by fluid collectors due to blacklisting, those collectors may seek out other brands. For so many the fun is in the quest.

[shafran]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

Moda auctions probably the best idea of where the "real" market value lies right now.
US$26,400 was last price for a blue dial 2022 VC overseas with papers but no box.

4500v blue? I was offered a 2017 complete for 23k

[WatchEater666]

Prices tanking for both