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Old 20 June 2021, 03:48 AM   #1
QuelleHeureEstIl
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How do you survive in this situation

I am just back from the "Rare Handcrafts 2021" exhibition at the Patek Philipp Salon in Geneva.

It was, without doubt superb, I was excited. (We were not allowed to take photos, sorry.)

However I made the mistake to talk to my seller (I have history at the salon and spent an amount most of the people never will save in their life). I was simply told (translation) to buy watches I explicitly said I dislike so we can "wait but we cannot promise anything".
Frustrated, I went to the Rolex owned store in Geneva (I have also a little history there). Simply said: forget it, nothing to buy here for the next 10 years. Except awful pieces rolex does not want to retire.
Fpjourne: same, but less years.

In the meantime, you can open chrono24, and you can find all the watches you want. So they obviously sell to flippers (which is not the habit in Switzerland). Why are they not encouraging personal engraving to prevent that?

I understand that the manufactures do not want to increase the volume because they acknowledge it is an anomaly and want to control the landing and avoid a crash.

As an enthusiast, I am frustrated, losing a lot of energy and time for nothing. There is nothing new with my story.

But honestly, today, I only see one way out: I quit this passion.

If you felt that also, how did you survive this situation?
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Old 20 June 2021, 04:45 AM   #2
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If you felt that also, how did you survive this situation?
Here's where enjoying a wide variety greatly helps. Cartier, Tag Heuer, Panerai, Bvlgari, MB&F, Omega.... or even a fun Bell&Ross.
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Old 20 June 2021, 05:06 AM   #3
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The way I see it.... If a store/sales gives you this vibe.... You can spend your money elsewhere on other goods. No need to push and let them fiddle their "valued customers" with their games.

The good ADs I deal with now have been around for a long time and understand nothing lasts forever. So there is a level of reason and appreciation when I spend money with them.

I've approached a couple ADs/different brands lately for some pieces and received the same treatment.... My reaction is just ok great..... Bye. Not interested in games and not letting a watch/any luxury good bother me in life.
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Old 20 June 2021, 05:07 AM   #4
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I think Steven is on the right lines, explore other brands, there are dozens of them outside the big 3.
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Old 20 June 2021, 05:08 AM   #5
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I could not agree more with sensui. Nailed it.
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Old 20 June 2021, 05:51 AM   #6
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I think Steven is on the right lines, explore other brands, there are dozens of them outside the big 3.
Yep, like Laurent Ferrier, Urban Jurgensen, Gronefeld, De Bethune et al. Times like this it's good to already have a nice collection, employ patience and wait it out.
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Old 20 June 2021, 05:52 AM   #7
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Yeah. Mentally I am in the same situation. I find it hard to even participate with some of these brands. They’ll want the business again when this “lands.” I was in Iceland the past week and stopped into JS Watch Company. A father and son place that makes really fun watches. I own one already. Going to buy another. Another one to have fun with is Sarpaneva. I love his stuff.


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Old 20 June 2021, 06:34 AM   #8
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Yeah. Mentally I am in the same situation. I find it hard to even participate with some of these brands. They’ll want the business again when this “lands.” I was in Iceland the past week and stopped into JS Watch Company. A father and son place that makes really fun watches. I own one already. Going to buy another. Another one to have fun with is Sarpaneva. I love his stuff.


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What a gorgeous watch, purchased in a gorgeous land.
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Old 20 June 2021, 07:05 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl View Post
I am just back from the "Rare Handcrafts 2021" exhibition at the Patek Philipp Salon in Geneva.

It was, without doubt superb, I was excited. (We were not allowed to take photos, sorry.)

However I made the mistake to talk to my seller (I have history at the salon and spent an amount most of the people never will save in their life). I was simply told (translation) to buy watches I explicitly said I dislike so we can "wait but we cannot promise anything".
Frustrated, I went to the Rolex owned store in Geneva (I have also a little history there). Simply said: forget it, nothing to buy here for the next 10 years. Except awful pieces rolex does not want to retire.
Fpjourne: same, but less years.

In the meantime, you can open chrono24, and you can find all the watches you want. So they obviously sell to flippers (which is not the habit in Switzerland). Why are they not encouraging personal engraving to prevent that?

I understand that the manufactures do not want to increase the volume because they acknowledge it is an anomaly and want to control the landing and avoid a crash.

As an enthusiast, I am frustrated, losing a lot of energy and time for nothing. There is nothing new with my story.

But honestly, today, I only see one way out: I quit this passion.

If you felt that also, how did you survive this situation?
Monsieur "WhatTimeIsIt"? I feel your pain. Continue deeper in your passion and be ready to show a fondue filled middle finger to those expecting you to spend double (or more) the MSRP.

By the "Rolex owned shop" are you referring to Chrono-Time, close to Bongenie? I was there before Covid, my salesperson no longer there, and they had no record of my prior transactions! (obviously nothing at your level)

Personally I think manufacturers / ADs ecosystem are behind this, and they do not mind the buzz/increased demand, etc.

It seems common practice that some ADs put the name of a third person on the warranty paper before shipping to an intermediary to avoid getting in trouble for shipping out of their country (i.e. territory)?

Customers hoping if they purchase a few watches they may get a simple 5212a in return, buy watches they do not want and flip...

I do not think it is all flippers behind the availability of the models (or lack thereof). ADs have something to do with it. You are lucky that the Geneva Patek and Rolex have more in their cases than most ADs in yonder.

My humble suggestion - enjoy what you can find that you like very much, and donot let vultures have your money. Instead enjoy a great dinner at Intensus.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:11 AM   #10
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There are still some good ADs out there, yes there are still ADs who play games (Rolex AD in Saudi is one of them) however there are still some good ADs.

perhaps there is a misunderstanding among some SA on the difference between marketing lines other than Nautilus and Aquanaut and pushing you to buy watches you clearly mentioned you don't like.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:47 AM   #11
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I have history at the salon and spent an amount most of the people never will save in their life
How much?
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Old 20 June 2021, 11:25 AM   #12
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How do you survive in this situation

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl View Post
I am just back from the "Rare Handcrafts 2021" exhibition at the Patek Philipp Salon in Geneva.

It was, without doubt superb, I was excited. (We were not allowed to take photos, sorry.)

However I made the mistake to talk to my seller (I have history at the salon and spent an amount most of the people never will save in their life). I was simply told (translation) to buy watches I explicitly said I dislike so we can "wait but we cannot promise anything".
Frustrated, I went to the Rolex owned store in Geneva (I have also a little history there). Simply said: forget it, nothing to buy here for the next 10 years. Except awful pieces rolex does not want to retire.
Fpjourne: same, but less years.

In the meantime, you can open chrono24, and you can find all the watches you want. So they obviously sell to flippers (which is not the habit in Switzerland). Why are they not encouraging personal engraving to prevent that?

I understand that the manufactures do not want to increase the volume because they acknowledge it is an anomaly and want to control the landing and avoid a crash.

As an enthusiast, I am frustrated, losing a lot of energy and time for nothing. There is nothing new with my story.

But honestly, today, I only see one way out: I quit this passion.

If you felt that also, how did you survive this situation?

I work in the watch accessory retail industry in Hong Kong - a great many collectors that are my customers are saying exactly the same thing. In the last Philips auction, here in HK, many of the lots were from one of these very collector/customers who told me he’d simply had enough of being told maybe he’d be put on a wait list despite having spent literally millions of HK$’s with them. He mentioned a couple of brands in particular but in general for him, a lifelong collector, the enjoyment just isn’t there any more.

Perhaps, for one example, Mr Stern should start to think more about the loyal customer instead of just the bank account!
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Old 20 June 2021, 12:10 PM   #13
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how did you survive this situation?
Wait for the watch grey market bubble to burst.
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Old 20 June 2021, 12:12 PM   #14
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Perhaps, for one example, Mr Stern should start to think more about the loyal customer instead of just the bank account!


Patek is actually leaving a ton of money on the table by not hiring more watchmakers and increasing production capacity. Same with AP, etc. I know it's not easy to hire people (I've done that most of my career).

And to anyone who's going to reference Ferrari, please note that they have increased capacity year over year. The variance between Ferrari's demand and their supply remains relatively constant.

The variance between Patek and AP demand vs. supply has gotten dramatically out of whack over the past year+.
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Old 20 June 2021, 12:30 PM   #15
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Patek is actually leaving a ton of money on the table by not hiring more watchmakers and increasing production capacity. Same with AP, etc. I know it's not easy to hire people (I've done that most of my career).

And to anyone who's going to reference Ferrari, please note that they have increased capacity year over year. The variance between Ferrari's demand and their supply remains relatively constant.

The variance between Patek and AP demand vs. supply has gotten dramatically out of whack over the past year+.

The word Yacht is also sometimes used in association with the family name in PP. At least AP is moving in the right direction by directly owning most of the boutiques, something that Rolex is apparently considering, but even that doesn’t stop their top customers from becoming speculative flippers. And already a green dial 5711 is available in the grey market. And that is really the rub at the moment - watches have become investment vehicles with the market becoming full of speculators rather than actual collectors as it used to be.
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Old 20 June 2021, 01:32 PM   #16
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If you felt that also, how did you survive this situation?
Be happy with what you have, wait it out and / or find another hobby. I did the latter and got into motorcycles.
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Old 20 June 2021, 01:33 PM   #17
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watches have become investment vehicles with the market becoming full of speculators rather than actual collectors as it used to be.
Everything has become an investment vehicle.

When things like this exist: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/cumrocket/

You know it's all over.

I'm waiting for Diesel watches to become an investment vehicle.
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Old 20 June 2021, 07:25 PM   #18
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Patek is actually leaving a ton of money on the table by not hiring more watchmakers and increasing production capacity. Same with AP, etc. I know it's not easy to hire people (I've done that most of my career).

And to anyone who's going to reference Ferrari, please note that they have increased capacity year over year. The variance between Ferrari's demand and their supply remains relatively constant.

The variance between Patek and AP demand vs. supply has gotten dramatically out of whack over the past year+.
I agree. The pool of talent is another constrain. It takes years to train a competent watch maker.

I personally feel that anyone saying it's a bubble might be wrong. Demand has increased many time over and most buyers are not short on liquidity.
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Old 20 June 2021, 07:30 PM   #19
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I agree. The pool of talent is another constrained. It takes years to train a competent watch maker.
I hear that.

Although, there's more than enough talent in the industry right now. AP makes enough money to make competitive offers to existing watchmakers.

They're leaving so much money on the table by not increasing capacity. I'd wager they need to increase by at least 35% in order to get the demand vs. supply gap to a healthier state (i.e., closer to what it used to be).

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I personally feel that anyone saying it's a bubble might be wrong. Demand has increased many time over and most buyers are not short on liquidity.
I'm one of those who say it's a bubble. We're experiencing bubbles across a multitude of markets and industries right now. There's something systemically sick out there.

It's a bubble when people start talking about watches as investments. It's a bubble when a 5990/1R hits the market at a $450k list price. It's a bubble when a Ceramic RO QP hits the market at a $450k list price.

And it's a bubble when more people post on Instagram talking about how great these things are as investments.
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Old 20 June 2021, 07:52 PM   #20
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I hear that.

Although, there's more than enough talent in the industry right now. AP makes enough money to make competitive offers to existing watchmakers.

They're leaving so much money on the table by not increasing capacity. I'd wager they need to increase by at least 35% in order to get the demand vs. supply gap to a healthier state (i.e., closer to what it used to be).



I'm one of those who say it's a bubble. We're experiencing bubbles across a multitude of markets and industries right now. There's something systemically sick out there.

It's a bubble when people start talking about watches as investments. It's a bubble when a 5990/1R hits the market at a $450k list price. It's a bubble when a Ceramic RO QP hits the market at a $450k list price.

And it's a bubble when more people post on Instagram talking about how great these things are as investments.
In a bubble no manufacturer is going to invest in ramping up long term production, wait it out and see what happens once the dust settles - in the meantime sell everything you make at full retail price.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:06 PM   #21
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Lots of great independents to buy from with no bullshit or other games. Romain Gauthier, Gronefeld, Grubel Forsey, etc.

If you have the money, they will build you a watch better than most pasteks.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:17 PM   #22
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If you ask me, I think employing more people to ramp up production is not the way to go. Rolex itself though reliable their finishing is borderline acceptable most of the time. Having inexperienced watchmaker is gonna absolute destroy the brand. The same applies to PP and AP if not more as they market themselves on having high quality finishing and execution.

I said this many times: the brands have to clamp down on dirty dealers who sell the hot watches via the backdoor or obscene bundle packages with the grey. For example, find out where the green dial nautilus is from (which AD) and blacklist them for 3 years without any sport models. Make it a clear example that no nonsense will be tolerated in regards to dodgy dealings. I think many dealers are afraid of losing their Rolex and PP AD status and if one can be made an example, I am sure the rest will be more vigilant and less willing to engage in unscrupulous practices.

Like Russell996 said, ramping up production in a bubble is a NO GO ZONE.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:23 PM   #23
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Speaking of buying from independents, does anyone have any experience with Czapek? I have been debating buying an Antartique and haven’t talked to anyone who has personally had one on.


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Old 20 June 2021, 08:44 PM   #24
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I shall wait for the big bubble to burst so that I can buy in the green baguette 5711 at 30k and the AP15202BC salmon at 15k. That day shall come eventually. We enthusiasts deserve better.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:48 PM   #25
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In a bubble no manufacturer is going to invest in ramping up long term production, wait it out and see what happens once the dust settles - in the meantime sell everything you make at full retail price.
Indeed.

All of this just makes me sad.
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Old 20 June 2021, 08:48 PM   #26
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I shall wait for the big bubble to burst so that I can buy in the green baguette 5711 at 30k and the AP15202 salmon at 15k. That day shall come eventually. We enthusiasts deserve better.
We can dream.
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Old 20 June 2021, 09:00 PM   #27
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We can dream.
Imagine the AD begging us to buy the 5990/1R and 5231J at 50% off and we tell them no, we will get it from grey dealer at 80% off instead. Then they will throw other freebies like a free first class trip to a dream vacation to close the deal. We customers deserve better and we should not be paying MSRP for 5990/1R and 5231J like ever.
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Old 20 June 2021, 09:34 PM   #28
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Imagine the AD begging us to buy the 5990/1R and 5231J at 50% off and we tell them no, we will get it from grey dealer at 80% off instead. Then they will throw other freebies like a free first class trip to a dream vacation to close the deal. We customers deserve better and we should not be paying MSRP for 5990/1R and 5231J like ever.
I intrigued, why should you not pay MSRP for in demand luxury goods?

Or just venting some steam?
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Old 20 June 2021, 09:39 PM   #29
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I shall wait for the big bubble to burst so that I can buy in the green baguette 5711 at 30k and the AP15202BC salmon at 15k. That day shall come eventually. We enthusiasts deserve better.
If that were to happen, the collateral circumstances, North Korea just nuked Hawaii and Tokyo, the Dow has fallen to 7,000, Russia has invaded Poland (again), the Fed raised interest rates (to 7 3/4%) for the 13th time in 6 months, would leave you flat on your back and you would be too afraid to spend the money on a watch. The watch bubble won't burst in a vacuum.
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Old 20 June 2021, 09:46 PM   #30
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I intrigued, why should you not pay MSRP for in demand luxury goods?

Or just venting some steam?
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If that were to happen, the collateral circumstances, North Korea just nuked Hawaii and Tokyo, the Dow has fallen to 7,000, Russia has invaded Poland (again), the Fed raised interest rates (to 7 3/4%) for the 13th time in 6 months, would leave you flat on your back and you would be too afraid to spend the money on a watch. The watch bubble won't burst in a vacuum.
Recommend to use a sarcasm meter to read my posts in this thread.
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