It's happening....

[JRell]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Did the Rolex aftermarket pricing reflect general inflation over the past 12 months? I think not. They aren't potatoes.

The prices have gone straight up, just like the rate of inflation. Inflation is a reflection of prices going up.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by JRell

The prices have gone straight up, just like the rate of inflation. Inflation is a reflection of prices going up.

Er, yes, but when governments calculate inflation, they do not include Rolex watches in their "basket of goods", at least in the UK. It's everyday things like food. The luxury market doesn't correlate at all with potatoes.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Untrue. I said “These people” in response to a post that was referring to this group which you are not even in: “No sense trolling people who bought grey in the last couple years.” Never singled you or anyone else out. And that comment was only referring to the subset of that group that are trying to influence the market with a narrative that most can plainly see is untrue at this point.

Ok then, but I've had a lot of pushback, and I am in no way connected to the currently-popular Rolex market, either as a buyer or seller.

[BillA]

I remember the good ole days when we went to grey dealers and got a discount on a watch. With exception of watches like the SS Daytona.
Now the grey market is gouging us, they want prices well over msrp.
I have no problem with the grays or anyone making a profit, but i am not a buyer at multiples over msrp. Anyone who does, well that is their prerogative , it is their money and can spend as they wish. Just not me.

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by BillA

I remember the good ole days when we went to grey dealers and got a discount on a watch. With exception of watches like the SS Daytona.
Now the grey market is gouging us, they want prices well over msrp.
I have no problem with the grays or anyone making a profit, but i am not a buyer at multiples over msrp. Anyone who does, well that is their prerogative , it is their money and can spend as they wish. Just not me.

I don’t blame the greys, I blame the situation and flippers. To be fair to greys, they are a business, they will only mark up a price they are sold at.

The joy about the watch world though is there’s plenty of brands to enjoy. Everyone has a choice what to do with their money.

Personally if I can buy at MSRP then great, if I’m spending double MSRP then I’m looking at JLC, GO, VC, Lange, Moser.

[boring_sandwich]

The market is crashing with speculators now not wanting to purchase what is offered from AD's as there is no money in it.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Er, yes, but when governments calculate inflation, they do not include Rolex watches in their "basket of goods", at least in the UK. It's everyday things like food. The luxury market doesn't correlate at all with potatoes.

Luxury items historically have been priced even higher than inflation rates, but do follow the curve even so. I am not saying Rolex is going out of business, but inflation rates have just seen a very small drop and so have the Rolex aftermarket prices. Let’s watch and see.

[dowheelies]

Originally Posted by boring_sandwich

The market is crashing with speculators now not wanting to purchase what is offered from AD's as there is no money in it.

Maybe you worded it wrong but that doesn't make sense to me. The current "crash" still leaves more profit for a grey 5 minutes out the door from an AD than the AD likely makes. A tagged BNIB BLNR, for instance, will still quickly fetch a few thousand $$$ over retail.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by dowheelies

Maybe you worded it wrong but that doesn't make sense to me. The current "crash" still leaves more profit for a grey 5 minutes out the door from an AD than the AD likely makes. A tagged BNIB BLNR, for instance, will still quickly fetch a few thousand $$$ over retail.

For now it will

[Chris]

Originally Posted by JRell

Luxury items historically have been priced even higher than inflation rates, but do follow the curve even so. I am not saying Rolex is going out of business, but inflation rates have just seen a very small drop and so have the Rolex aftermarket prices. Let’s watch and see.

Show the graphs you seem to have them at your fingertips.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by boring_sandwich

The market is crashing with speculators now not wanting to purchase what is offered from AD's as there is no money in it.

Care to share exact, verifiable evidence here please?

[Chris]

Originally Posted by GW44

Care to share exact, verifiable evidence here please?

Dont hold your breath!!!

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Chris

Dont hold your breath!!!

I won’t Chris…..he posts similar misinformation on the Uk TZ forum as well..

[Chris]

Originally Posted by GW44

I won’t Chris…..he posts similar misinformation on the Uk TZ forum as well..

I need Deliveroo all these threads and im running out of popcorn.

[TheVTCGuy]

Well…. As to inflation, pricing, the market, I am a Dorklehead, so couldn’t add anything even remotely useful to this discussion. As to the Gray market, here is my opinion.

I don’t see why anyone can BLAME the grays for the current pricing. One thing I DO remember from college economics class is as the demand goes up so do the prices; simple. If you are claiming the grays are all hoarding watches so they are difficult to get (and again, the price goes up) you may very well be right, but we are talking about luxury watches, not bread, milk and baby formula. If they are legally being successful by playing the capitalist game in a free market, well then good for them.

[pjaffe]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Well…. As to inflation, pricing, the market, I am a Dorklehead, so couldn’t add anything even remotely useful to this discussion. As to the Gray market, here is my opinion.

I don’t see why anyone can BLAME the grays for the current pricing. One thing I DO remember from college economics class is as the demand goes up so do the prices; simple. If you are claiming the grays are all hoarding watches so they are difficult to get (and again, the price goes up) you may very well be right, but we are talking about luxury watches, not bread, milk and baby formula. If they are legally being successful by playing the capitalist game in a free market, well then good for them.

I don't blame them for anything, but I don't understand this sentiment of feeling bad for them when prices drop. If you want to play the game, be prepared for the consequences too.

[rolexandlange]

When I look at what I own and the value change YTD, Rolex and Lange timepieces are my best stores of value…. They don’t require property taxes like my real estate, and they haven’t dropped in the ways my investment accounts have. They’ve really held in there. My company shares are down 40% from their 52 week high. My ceramic Daytona is down 20% from their crazy highs and I got it at retail. We always wondered if people really were paying $50k for steel Daytonas when the prices were there. I think there’s a lot of envy reflected in those who post forecasting some sort of crash. They are most likely would-be flippers who never got the call so they hope the game ends since they never could play. If luxury goods drop in value because of war in Europe, lockdown in China and stagflation in the US I don’t think that’s some sort of indictment of those who enjoy and store some value in timepieces. In the current situation there is no where to hide when it comes to protecting wealth.

[rG2022]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

In the current situation there is no where to hide when it comes to protecting wealth.

I couldn’t agree more. Excellent point.

[Tim Plains]

Well, I'll still be here after it happens.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I don't blame them for anything, but I don't understand this sentiment of feeling bad for them when prices drop. If you want to play the game, be prepared for the consequences too.

Oh I completely agree, I don’t feel sorry for them if the prices come down to MSRP, and they may be selling for less. That too, is part of capitalism. I am also sure they will be fine, these men (and women) did not become successful in selling watches by being inflexible.

[Quamby]

Imagine those dealer who have accepted crypto as payment. What do those cryptos worth now? Painful!!!!

[Quamby]

Originally Posted by pjaffe

I don't blame them for anything, but I don't understand this sentiment of feeling bad for them when prices drop. If you want to play the game, be prepared for the consequences too.

Yes indeed. They are just a part of the market that is most sensitive to price movements. The old adage of: sugar to shxt, don't hate the player, hate the game, comes to mind.

[Jonah10]

Originally Posted by Quamby

Imagine those dealer who have accepted crypto as payment. What do those cryptos worth now? Painful!!!!

A lot of people accepting crypto as payment use a service that immediately sells the crypto and converts it to cash then deposits into the owners account. The ones who don’t and risk playing the market are obviously at a huge risk for loss or potential for gain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Jonah10

A lot of people accepting crypto as payment use a service that immediately sells the crypto and converts it to cash then deposits into the owners account. The ones who don’t and risk playing the market are obviously at a huge risk for loss or potential for gain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Who’s running these services and taking on the risk?

Or is there a service provider to just such a service provider?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mailman]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Some greys hoarded to manipulate supply, along with other practices that I would consider unethical. You may call it capitalism, but I don’t.

They sell a luxury product. No one forces people to go to them or pay their prices. People go to them on their own free will to buy what they have and willingly pay their prices.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by mailman

They sell a luxury product. No one forces people to go to them or pay their prices. People go to them on their own free will to buy what they have and willingly pay their prices.

Attempts to manipulate the market could be considered unethical, despite the fact it is an unregulated and unsupervised market.

[mailman]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Attempts to manipulate the market could be considered unethical, despite the fact it is an unregulated and unsupervised market.

They aren’t selling bottled water during a natural disaster. They are also paying more for their inventory opposed to 4~5 years ago.

[David001]

Originally Posted by boring_sandwich

The market is crashing with speculators now not wanting to purchase what is offered from AD's as there is no money in it.

Originally Posted by GW44

Care to share exact, verifiable evidence here please?

Verifiable evidence? It doesn't exist, what do you want - all the flippers to write a signed statement?

My friend is an SA at an AD and he said he's had loads of people turning down Rolex allocations in the last couple of weeks, he said he now sometimes gets to the 4th or 5th or even higher person on 'the list' before they come and take it. Previously it always went to the first person they called.

Originally Posted by dowheelies

Maybe you worded it wrong but that doesn't make sense to me. The current "crash" still leaves more profit for a grey 5 minutes out the door from an AD than the AD likely makes. A tagged BNIB BLNR, for instance, will still quickly fetch a few thousand $$$ over retail.

See above.
Grey dealers aren't offering to buy at more than MRRP in many cases, and on some watches it's less.

I don't really care if no one believes this, it's fact and you'll see it all unfold as the weeks go by. When I started announcing that prices were falling hardly anyone believed it, now most people believe it but some still want to argue it's not that bad. When they see it really is that bad they'll find something else to argue about.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Well…. As to inflation, pricing, the market, I am a Dorklehead, so couldn’t add anything even remotely useful to this discussion. As to the Gray market, here is my opinion.

I don’t see why anyone can BLAME the grays for the current pricing. One thing I DO remember from college economics class is as the demand goes up so do the prices; simple. If you are claiming the grays are all hoarding watches so they are difficult to get (and again, the price goes up) you may very well be right, but we are talking about luxury watches, not bread, milk and baby formula. If they are legally being successful by playing the capitalist game in a free market, well then good for them.

Agree Paul.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by mailman

They sell a luxury product. No one forces people to go to them or pay their prices. People go to them on their own free will to buy what they have and willingly pay their prices.

Agree. But a lot of the hate toward secondary sellers stems from entitlement to luxury goods. Rational arguments do not work well against emotions.