Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by GW44

Probably no chance of a new 15510 this year then.

Good luck for 2023

Don't even have a 15510 on my wish list maybe this is my problem

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Don't even have a 15510 on my wish list maybe this is my problem

What do you have on your wishlist? And are there any pieces you currently own?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by GB-man

You will get bent over on any code for tens of thousands, most ROO you’ll need to skirt taxes and then keep it LNIB in hopes of losing 5k and that’s if you sell it yourself. No dealer is giving finance bro msrp for his ROO. They will likely get no offer at all.

Regardless I think AP will manage the situation fine. I think a buyer should be able to walk in and buy some ROO bare minimum. These don’t have to be financial instruments because let’s be honest they are investments big picture.

Is the situation in Japan also. VERYVERY difficult to get any offers from Grey dealers to take on inventory...Rolex and several PPs? No issue still. AP, its usually a straight No.

[Nocomment]

I just bought a purple dial code 11.59, brand new 2022 card minus box (coz I don't plan on selling the watch anyway and a hassle for me to bring it back home), for around $19k USD converted. That's almost half price off in new York after tax, I did okay right?

And yes, I wanted to buy a code since it's announcement but couldn't swallow the pricey RRP. Purple in RG was actually my first pick and wow I couldn't believe the price when I saw the watch off the display !

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Nocomment

I just bought a purple dial code 11.59, brand new 2022 card minus box (coz I don't plan on selling the watch anyway and a hassle for me to bring it back home), for around $19k USD converted. That's almost half price off in new York after tax, I did okay right?

And yes, I wanted to buy a code since it's announcement but couldn't swallow the pricey RRP. Purple in RG was actually my first pick and wow I couldn't believe the price when I saw the watch off the display !

Sounds like you did great and congrats on getting the piece you wanted for a reasonable price. However this post just reaffirms to me that I made the right move passing on a 3 handed code when offered one.

[clew84]

APs on the gray market are still being priced aggressively so it’s interesting to see that some grey dealers are refusing to take on more. It seems to signal a top.

I tried to trade a Blancpain limited edition for a still yet unsold 126613 Sub. I hesitated on the price for mine and then re-engaged a couple of weeks later and was told they were no longer interested in my watch. Weak signal but the market is softening I think.

Waiting for a good deal on an AP Diver now…


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[GW44]

Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix

Is the situation in Japan also. VERYVERY difficult to get any offers from Grey dealers to take on inventory...Rolex and several PPs? No issue still. AP, its usually a straight No.

Good job you don’t have any AP’s to actually “sell” then Jordan……..

[thecrownprince]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Don't even have a 15510 on my wish list maybe this is my problem

Geezus for a first piece what do you want? A jumbo?

[Bpan]

I consider both a 15510 and an offshore too big for my 6.25" wrists. The lugs of the Code are marginal - while they don't overhang, they basically line up perfectly with the width of my wrist when viewed top down. I asked for a 26715 in early Feb.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by TheDude

Yeah, but they’re insulating the market from a pure free fall.

Their actions aren’t even remotely altruistic, but their role is important… holding the line is keeping values up for owners everywhere.


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Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

The Grey market screwed itself over imo. And their clients too. It used to be a great place to sell and buy watches, before the hype started.
The grey dealers have multiple WhatsApp groups of hundreds if not thousands of dealers which acted as a cartel and manipulated prices for the last couple of years. I think that during the last 12 months some of them got a bit too greedy. Hence you could check the price for a piece at 7:00 and it was 15k and by night time it would be 20k. The following day would be 23k. Etc etc.
Each dealer tried to make that few extra grand more than his mate, in order to pay for their new Ferrari or P1. It’s sad, but they used YouTube/Instagram/chrono 24 and other platforms as a way to inflate the prices of sought after pieces in a very fast and unsustainable way, mainly by chanting that watches are a good investment. Greed is a ugly thing and the fall is sometimes harder than you’d think.
Watches aren’t the same as the stock market and shouldn’t appreciate 3-5 times a day.
I don’t feel bad for the grey dealers as I’m sure most of them made a fortune during that period where they could sell at whatever price they wanted to. I also don’t feel bad for the ones who decided to purchase a piece at X5 Retail because of fomo or whatever the reason may be.
Buy at retail and most chances you won’t get disappointed or stressed. And if you can’t? Then just wait for an opportunity or bite the bullet and pay what you are comfortable living with. Either way, in the long run I don’t believe AP/PP/Rolex will lose 50% of their value nor be sold at a discount from the boutique. But I do believe the bubble has burst to an extent and the grey dealers have a big part in as why they are where they are now (stuck with stocks of overpriced watches).

Only time will tell what will happen, but there seems little bit more stock at the boutiques(not SS models though) which indicate imo that things are calming down. So we will have to wait and see….


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[scottywein]

Originally Posted by SMD

This is my view as well. And yes, they still keep a list of the pieces you have registered an interest in. At least in NYC they do.

FWIW, the NYC boutique offered my a 50th anniversary piece I was not seeking nor did I express any interest in it. Things have definitely changed.

That's awesome, did you take it?

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by clew84

APs on the gray market are still being priced aggressively so it’s interesting to see that some grey dealers are refusing to take on more. It seems to signal a top.

I tried to trade a Blancpain limited edition for a still yet unsold 126613 Sub. I hesitated on the price for mine and then re-engaged a couple of weeks later and was told they were no longer interested in my watch. Weak signal but the market is softening I think.

Waiting for a good deal on an AP Diver now…


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Blancpains seem very hard to move second hand.

[clew84]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Blancpains seem very hard to move second hand.

Fact.


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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by dmash

One could also interpret this as….….. ‘they’re clearly exerting all possible effort to manipulate the market in their favor’.

I just don’t understand it though. The only logical answer is some of these greys made such an unfathomable amount of money in the recent run up that they can blow money on interest for months in hopes of a run up. It still doesn’t make sense to me though as all signs point towards things getting even worse. That seems incredibly risky though for an entire business model to be hinging on speculation like this. It’s almost like betting your business on black. Wild.

But hey, maybe they know something I don’t.

I personally think that grey’s might be trying their best to hold prices and not lower them too much until Christmas season (in the hope to sell then with minimal loss). Maybe after that another shift downwards in prices… But who really knows …

I find it odd that prices went up much quicker than they are coming down.


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[dchang81]

One prominent grey that usually has strong/high prices has been dropping prices rapidly and among a lot of their inventory, so here we go

[squall1]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Blancpains seem very hard to move second hand.

I have forever been eyeing the bathyscaphe in black ceramic and recently picked one as the prices are so depressed even beyond what they normally are. Will probably go much lower in the coming months. Good times ahead for enthusiasts I think.

[conkers]

Originally Posted by dchang81

One prominent grey that usually has strong/high prices has been dropping prices rapidly and among a lot of their inventory, so here we go

Which one please? I am in serious buying mode!

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by thecrownprince

Geezus for a first piece what do you want? A jumbo?

It has been said this is possible as a first purchase haha

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by squall1

I have forever been eyeing the bathyscaphe in black ceramic and recently picked one as the prices are so depressed even beyond what they normally are. Will probably go much lower in the coming months. Good times ahead for enthusiasts I think.

These are such an incredible deal. I don't need another bp but it's such a good deal I thought about buying one for my brother. Nato with ceramic hardware is nuts.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by APWhale

What do you have on your wishlist? And are there any pieces you currently own?

No AP ever owned hopefully one day

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by SMD

This is my view as well. And yes, they still keep a list of the pieces you have registered an interest in. At least in NYC they do.

FWIW, the NYC boutique offered my a 50th anniversary piece I was not seeking nor did I express any interest in it. Things have definitely changed.

I wonder if AP HOUSE London can request this
Offering watches to clients who have no desire for them, times have drastically changed

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by Mini2

No AP ever owned hopefully one day

What are you after for your first AP?

Originally Posted by Mini2

I wonder if AP HOUSE London can request this
Offering watches to clients who have no desire for them, times have drastically changed

Don’t see that happening. AP House London are fantastic to deal with

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

What are you after for your first AP?



Don’t see that happening. AP House London are fantastic to deal with

All retailers are good to deal with when your foot is in the door
Requested a 41mm 15400/15500 which are now discontinued

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by Mini2

All retailers are good to deal with when your foot is in the door
Requested a 41mm 15400/15500 which are now discontinued

Yep that’s true, but we’ve all got to start somewhere, so keep in touch with them and hopefully things will work out.

There’s still been 15500’s appearing (on here) so maybe there’s the odd one still to filter through. Good luck.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

Yep that’s true, but we’ve all got to start somewhere, so keep in touch with them and hopefully things will work out.

There’s still been 15500’s appearing (on here) so maybe there’s the odd one still to filter through. Good luck.

Its hard to see so many different scenarios. People getting jumbo as a first watch but then on other hands sales assistants guiding you down the path to get a code to maybe warrant a Royal Oak let alone a jumbo. Just leaves a funny taste in my mouth them sort of antics. It probably worked for many in the last 12 to 18 months but we are in unchartered times and people being offered watches not on you're list says maybe my time might come

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by Mini2

All retailers are good to deal with when your foot is in the door
Requested a 41mm 15400/15500 which are now discontinued

You requested the 15400/15500 previously but you not the new 15510? If you haven’t already, why don’t you try to reconnect and note your interest in the 15510?

Also you mentioned that the Offshores are too big and don’t suit your style, would you be open to a 37mm RO or 38mm ROC? The latter are not even 50th. In addition to the fact that you’ve been waiting since 15400 years I am certain if you reconnect with your boutique that an allocation will come your way soon.

[dawalsh]

Originally Posted by Nocomment

I just bought a purple dial code 11.59, brand new 2022 card minus box (coz I don't plan on selling the watch anyway and a hassle for me to bring it back home), for around $19k USD converted. That's almost half price off in new York after tax, I did okay right?

And yes, I wanted to buy a code since it's announcement but couldn't swallow the pricey RRP. Purple in RG was actually my first pick and wow I couldn't believe the price when I saw the watch off the display !

You did good! it’s such a cool watch. Post some pictures.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by APWhale

You requested the 15400/15500 previously but you not the new 15510? If you haven’t already, why don’t you try to reconnect and note your interest in the 15510?

Also you mentioned that the Offshores are too big and don’t suit your style, would you be open to a 37mm RO or 38mm ROC? The latter are not even 50th. In addition to the fact that you’ve been waiting since 15400 years I am certain if you reconnect with your boutique that an allocation will come your way soon.

15510 is nice but prefer the 15500, the 37 and 38 are just too small.

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by APWhale

You requested the 15400/15500 previously but you not the new 15510? If you haven’t already, why don’t you try to reconnect and note your interest in the 15510?

^^^ this makes sense

Originally Posted by Mini2

15510 is nice but prefer the 15500, the 37 and 38 are just too small.

If a 15500 is out the question, what else would you then want?

[gregouille]

Originally Posted by Nocomment

I just bought a purple dial code 11.59, brand new 2022 card minus box (coz I don't plan on selling the watch anyway and a hassle for me to bring it back home), for around $19k USD converted. That's almost half price off in new York after tax, I did okay right?

And yes, I wanted to buy a code since it's announcement but couldn't swallow the pricey RRP. Purple in RG was actually my first pick and wow I couldn't believe the price when I saw the watch off the display !

That’s a steal!!
I want the same deal