Hard to swallow, but let’s be realistic

[WWC]

Just a thought I’d like to share based on the many posts people are asking or seeking advice on.

Many of us are stuck deciding whether to go gray and pay the premium, or buy a slow moving piece from the AD and wait for the call.

Lately I’ve answered several inbox messages and although I’m no expert in Patek, I think it’s logical and reasonable to fork out the premium on the gray market if you really want that piece. At the end of the day, the dealers want to make the extra buck and they went the extra mile to get your watch, right?

Paying the premium on the gray market for the hot piece might come out cheaper than buying a slow moving piece and trying to sell that one off to equal out the ‘promised’ piece. That piece might not really come your way and by then you would have already purchased the watch.

So, if I really didn’t have the time, the patience, and the ‘background’ to get a coveted piece from Patek, I would just go ahead and pay the premium. To me, it’s really hard to swallow the hefty price tag and I’m sure that in the back of my mind, it would bother me a bit knowing that I had to fork out double the MSRP in order to get the piece. If you learn to appreciate the watch for what it is, then you’ll soon get past it and start enjoying the watch.

I hope I have not offended anyone, but on the contrary, hoping to be able to help those who are at the very verge of pulling the trigger but have many questions floating in their minds.

[BlueGlacier]

Seems like ADs or the market have broken your spirit
I would never pray a premium on a watch especially patek thats crazy. I dont even think that the premiums on the natutilus or aquanaut are worth it.
Your choice.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by WWC

buying a slow moving piece and trying to sell that one off to equal out the ‘promised’ piece.

Precisely the kind of customer PP does NOT want. Don’t expect PP or AD to pull any favors for you if you buy ”merit” pieces to sell off in anticipation of gain vs msrp on a Aquanaut/Nautilus. From their perspective flipping contributes to grey market saturation, and in a local sense it can even be de facto competion vs the AD.

Hence I agree fully with your assessment. If one wants the watch one ponies up the market price. Simple as that.

[WWC]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

Precisely the kind of customer PP does NOT want. Don’t expect PP or AD to pull any favors for you buy ”merit” pieces to sell off in anticipation of gain vs msrp on a Aquanaut/Nautilus.

Hence I agree fully with your assessment. If one wants the watch one ponies up the market price. Simple as that.

Totally agree. Patek doesn’t want this type of customer, hence I believe that you’re better off paying the premium for the piece you want as opposed to having to buy a ‘slow moving’ piece and risk the chance of being black listed.

Long story short, I just think you’re better off paying the premium on the gray than buying other Patek pieces from the AD that you aren’t really into but buying it so that you can be ‘bumped’ up in the waiting list. There are no promises that you’ll get the Aquanaut/Nautilus for sure even after that purchase.

[nda]

I don't have any issues with paying the market rate for something I want - whether that be cars, houses or watches. It's only money. :)

[jon_jon]

At the end of the day, it is just a watch that tells time. If you must have it and it will give you that big smile after you put it on your wrist, go for it. There is a secondary market for a reason.

Who knows how long this crazy second market for SS watches will last. Even if price tanks, as long as you can say you enjoyed wearing the watch and the pleasure of ownership was worth it, then that is all that matters.

[sensui]

Not to mention almost everyone that's able to buy at msrp from ads..... All have paid their dues one way or another. There is no free lunch.

[Becweb]

Will never pay a premium for a lowly SS watch, despite the Patek name on it.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

At the end of the day, it is just a watch that tells time. If you must have it and it will give you that big smile after you put it on your wrist, go for it. There is a secondary market for a reason.

Who knows how long this crazy second market for SS watches will last. Even if price tanks, as long as you can say you enjoyed wearing the watch and the pleasure of ownership was worth it, then that is all that matters.

I agree with this.

[watchtabs]

Completely agree with OP.

I'll take it further...

To be honest, ADs have done a real good job at putting me off from watch collecting in general.

I no longer admire AP, PP, Rolex, etc, the same way I used to. Now the ADs are playing games that make no sense.

Yesterday for example I called an AP boutique... Of course, asking to see if I could be put on some 'list' for the 15500 white/silver. But "The guy", with this sense of superiority, says I've never bought from AP and that he can't even take my name down... Mind you, I've bought 3 APs new from different "AP" stores (money which ends up going back to AP HQ!) But it doesn't count because I have no 'history'.

So I don't know why I am being forced to 'court' these sales people... Imagine if you had to court your car sales man... So long story short, I bypass them and buy what I want without having to court no one.

This is where people like DavidSW, and a few others like SDWatches and Takuya (and many more here), do an excellent job. Yes, you pay a premium. But its your decision in the end to buy or not.

I got way bigger fish to fry than to be courting high maintenance sales people.

With that said, I am not willing to pay ridiculous 2x/3x price tags for anything. For example, I'd be ok paying $5-6k over as I know I am saving on taxes. But none of this crazy 2x/3x prices.

[watchtabs]

Originally Posted by sensui

Not to mention almost everyone that's able to buy at msrp from ads..... All have paid their dues one way or another. There is no free lunch.

Paid their dues, and kissed a bunch of

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by watchtabs

Completely agree with OP.

I'll take it further...

To be honest, ADs have done a real good job at putting me off from watch collecting in general.

I no longer admire AP, PP, Rolex, etc, the same way I used to. Now the ADs are playing games that make no sense.

Yesterday for example I called an AP boutique... Of course, asking to see if I could be put on some 'list' for the 15500 white/silver. But "The guy", with this sense of superiority, says I've never bought from AP and that he can't even take my name down... Mind you, I've bought 3 APs new from different "AP" stores (money which ends up going back to AP HQ!) But it doesn't count because I have no 'history'.

So I don't know why I am being forced to 'court' these sales people... Imagine if you had to court your car sales man... So long story short, I bypass them and buy what I want without having to court no one.

This is where people like DavidSW, and a few others like SDWatches and Takuya (and many more here), do an excellent job. Yes, you pay a premium. But its your decision in the end to buy or not.

I got way bigger fish to fry than to be courting high maintenance sales people.

With that said, I am not willing to pay ridiculous 2x/3x price tags for anything. For example, I'd be ok paying $5-6k over as I know I am saving on taxes. But none of this crazy 2x/3x prices.

Well said, and I couldn't agree more with your assessment. For people that have just started collecting within the past ~5 years, the current "game" is a fool's game with most AD's and even the boutiques. There will always be the very occasional exception, but 99% are not getting the 5711/5167/AP 15407ST/AP 15500 Blue without buying duds that lose far more value than any premium you pay (even when that premium is 2x).

With the way the market is now, the hot models go to one of two places: VIP customers, or out the back door and into the gray market. I don't have to like it, but that's capitalism and I understand it.

I also understand some people refuse to pay the premium and that's fine. They probably got in before the hobby and market took off, and they should absolutely take advantage of their position. As long as they aren't flipping and taking watches they have no intent to cherish or wear, good for them.

[enjoythemusic]

Easy answer, start a relationship with an F.P. Journe AD. You won't regret it :)

[Custom02]

The thing I don’t understand about people that buy grey is this.......to get a SS nautilus, if an AD expects you to buy a slow moving piece (and not entry level calatrava) like an annual calendar for £31-38k and then you can get a 5711 for retail £23440 then you’ve spent approx £60k. Ok so that’s more than just the nautilus but versus buying the 5711 grey at circa £55k you’ve effectively got the annual calendar for £5k. I understand maybe you didn’t want it to begin with but between the two options who wouldn’t want a brand new pp ac for £5k???
And unless I’m mistaken (and please point out if I am, no offence whatsoever taken) that is the type of option that’s available.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Custom02

The thing I don’t understand about people that buy grey is this.......to get a SS nautilus, if an AD expects you to buy a slow moving piece (and not entry level calatrava) like an annual calendar for £31-38k and then you can get a 5711 for retail £23440 then you’ve spent approx £60k. Ok so that’s more than just the nautilus but versus buying the 5711 grey at circa £55k you’ve effectively got the annual calendar for £5k. I understand maybe you didn’t want it to begin with but between the two options who wouldn’t want a brand new pp ac for £5k???
And unless I’m mistaken (and please point out if I am, no offence whatsoever taken) that is the type of option that’s available.

Sure, if purchasing an annual calendar for 38k guaranteed you a 5711, everybody would do it and make the "investment".

The reality is it is FAR from a guarantee. It will help your chances for sure, but if you think picking up a Complication guarantees you a Nautilus or even an Aquanaut, I believe you're mistaken. And let's not forget the element of time here. If you are allocated a Nautilus or Aquanaut, it is not likely to be a 5711 or a 5167 and significant time will pass waiting. There's a cost to be placed on the waiting game, too.

[Custom02]

That’s a fair point. You’d have to trust the ad to eventually the deliver but assuming that was the case you’d have a new watch and arguably more interesting watch to keep you entertained for the 6-15 months you’d have to wait. I find waiting times aren’t as long as people think once an ad has committed.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Custom02

I find waiting times aren’t as long as people think once an ad has committed.

And I find there is no such thing as a committed AD when it comes to these watches :-)

I hope you know I'm not trying to be argumentative in any way. Everybody's mileage will vary with this stuff.

I just try and be realistic. Some people are genuinely rewarded, but it's only possible with some combination of money spent, patience, and luck.

The secondary market is a ticket around all of this, and I maintain for most people given the current state of play, this by far remains the best option with a definable outcome.

[Nav01L]

What I don’t understand is why it’s that important to have a Nautilus in the first place.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Custom02

The thing I don’t understand about people that buy grey is this.......to get a SS nautilus, if an AD expects you to buy a slow moving piece (and not entry level calatrava) like an annual calendar for £31-38k and then you can get a 5711 for retail £23440 then you’ve spent approx £60k. Ok so that’s more than just the nautilus but versus buying the 5711 grey at circa £55k you’ve effectively got the annual calendar for £5k. I understand maybe you didn’t want it to begin with but between the two options who wouldn’t want a brand new pp ac for £5k???
And unless I’m mistaken (and please point out if I am, no offence whatsoever taken) that is the type of option that’s available.

My thinking exactly and it could turn out the the AC or WT is actually the watch worn the most. Plus, the potential downside of 2X/3X prices could be huge if the SS craze cools off.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

My thinking exactly and it could turn out the the AC or WT is actually the watch worn the most. Plus, the potential downside of 2X/3X prices could be huge if the SS craze cools off.

I'm sorry but I don't see how this would strengthen the case for buying a Complication to get a Nautilus or Aquanaut?

If the SS "craze" cools off, the math works against both sides. If the secondary market value gets cut by 40% for SS piece, the overall value of the watches you're left with is lowered for everybody.

Again, I'm trying to keep this a controlled experiment. I'm suggesting you're buying the Complication only to get the prize later. If you want the Complication, and you're factoring in that the Complication likely has a market value of 25 to 40% less than what you're paying for it, then fine.

But, I would argue, most people don't want the Complication at all. It's what you tell yourself in the mirror at night to justify your actions.

[G3Z]

This makes my head boggle at the thought of playing AD games.

Thankfully Omega make fantastic watches and have no AD games - they actually welcome you into the store.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Custom02

That’s a fair point. You’d have to trust the ad to eventually the deliver but assuming that was the case you’d have a new watch and arguably more interesting watch to keep you entertained for the 6-15 months you’d have to wait. I find waiting times aren’t as long as people think once an ad has committed.

Buying one watch to get on the waiting list for another is a risky strategy, and even more so when lots of Patek ADs are losing their status - in my country a quarter in the last round. Bundling outright appears to be the better alternative although I can't see that for myself either. So far my AD has not suggested anything like it, but times may have changed since I got a hard-to-get Patek 2 years ago, as the first watch I bought from them no less.

I don't mind waiting as long as the AD keeps me in the loop how matters are progressing. Last time they did a good job and could always tell me how many people are still ahead of me and what the remaining wait time will be.

[Russell996]

There is only one way to work with all AD’s of any brand, build a relationship based on a mutual love of the pieces, tell them exactly what you want, wait for what you want and don’t ever buy something you don’t want.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by ts3

I don't mind waiting as long as the AD keeps me in the loop how matters are progressing. Last time they did a good job and could always tell me how many people are still ahead of me and what the remaining wait time will be.

Totally agree with this. I waited 2.5 years for my Rolex 116500LN and the only reason I didn't break down and go secondary is because the AD was very forthright with me about the progress.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by Russell996

There is only one way to work with all AD’s of any brand, build a relationship based on a mutual love of the pieces, tell them exactly what you want, wait for what you want and don’t ever buy something you don’t want.

I agree entirely with this mentality.

[AK797]

The price is the price, and that reflects availability and desirability, and so yes the grey prices are very high, but then so are PP retail prices for the vast majority of people, and so are Rolex prices for a huge amount of people, the market sets the price, it's the same everywhere - we've had the same in the Art market where a relatively unknown Leonardo was knocked down for $450m, a huge 50% rise on the previous record, and knowing who the buyer was they would have easily gone another $100m higher if pushed. And now the idea of a billion dollar painting is an inevitability, and should a true masterpiece ever come up for sale like the Mona Lisa, Kiss, Le Reve, Guernica, Starry Night or Night Watch, then 2,3,4 billion could easily be the hammer price.

When wealthy people really crave something hard to get then the sky's the limit, and the Christie's and the Davidsw's will always be there selling the tickets.

[Preacher]

Or here’s an idea...buy something else. There’s plenty more watches at the AD.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by watchtabs

Paid their dues, and kissed a bunch of

you should contact bal harbour boutique or NYC that is owned by corporate AP and not an AD.

[bob101]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Easy answer, start a relationship with an F.P. Journe AD. You won't regret it :)

Meh niche brand and crazy prices if anything goes wrong.. let’s see if they can actually service the watches they produce at a realistic price..

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by bob101

Meh niche brand and crazy prices if anything goes wrong.. let’s see if they can actually service the watches they produce at a realistic price..

Yeah, I hear that about Patek, plus long service times. You make a great point.