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Old 15 February 2019, 11:31 AM   #1
vtsnowplow
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Have we reached lala land yet?

Seems like anything unpolished Rolex 4 digit these days is priced at 20k plus. 1680, 5513, 1675 and 1655. Even starting to see 5 digit subs at 20k as well. Unbelievable prices. Seems just like a poor purchase at these prices. Maybe I am wrong and they are still a deal.
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Old 15 February 2019, 11:42 AM   #2
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Seems like anything unpolished these days is priced at 20k plus. Unbelievable prices. Seems just like a poor purchase at these prices. Maybe I am wrong and they are still a deal.
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Old 15 February 2019, 12:08 PM   #3
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I was watching a Hodinkee Talking Watches episode from 2014 and the interviewer said you can purchase a 5513 for 5k! Have prices doubled in 5 years?!

I'm drooling over 5513 watches, but I just can't afford one. I'd need to take out a second mortgage.
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Old 15 February 2019, 12:11 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vtsnowplow View Post
Seems like anything unpolished Rolex 4 digit these days is priced at 20k plus. 1680, 5513, 1675 and 1655. Even starting to see 5 digit subs at 20k as well. Unbelievable prices. Seems just like a poor purchase at these prices. Maybe I am wrong and they are still a deal.
I'll take every unpolished 1665, 62xx, or gilt 5512,5513,1675 at $20K!!
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Old 15 February 2019, 12:13 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by BrazenC5 View Post
I'll take every unpolished 1665, 62xx, or gilt 5512,5513,1675 at $20K!!

That’s my point. 6 years ago these all were half price. Will the double again or have we seen price stabilization.
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Old 15 February 2019, 12:13 PM   #6
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I'll take every unpolished 1665, 62xx, or gilt 5512,5513,1675 at $20K!!
Me too!!!
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Old 15 February 2019, 12:20 PM   #7
vtsnowplow
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I'll take every unpolished 1665, 62xx, or gilt 5512,5513,1675 at $20K!!
Yes but a white dial 1680 is approaching 20k
A 1655 explorer is 25k
1675 20k+

This is an insane time

Someone actually listed a 16800 for 20k

Wow
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Old 15 February 2019, 02:22 PM   #8
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The watches are only getting older, and conditions only getting worse with age (unless meticulously taken care of). I don't expect to see any reversal of prices.
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Old 15 February 2019, 02:24 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by ravenhome777 View Post
I was watching a Hodinkee Talking Watches episode from 2014 and the interviewer said you can purchase a 5513 for 5k! Have prices doubled in 5 years?!

I'm drooling over 5513 watches, but I just can't afford one. I'd need to take out a second mortgage.
Tripled! But 5k was light for a 5513 in 2014...
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Old 15 February 2019, 02:37 PM   #10
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Yes but a white dial 1680 is approaching 20k
A 1655 explorer is 25k
1675 20k+

This is an insane time

Someone actually listed a 16800 for 20k

Wow
Seriously, anyone's guess. Half the camp says bubble, half the camp says you won't see last year's prices again.

In the next 5 years I don't think they'll double or triple, and you'll find a range depending on condition. Prices of collectables follow the market...In the short/medium term if the market drops, prices will drop, when the market recovers, the prices recover.

I think in the long term...like 30 years, I think prices will fall as they will fall out of favor to the next generation of collectors.

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Old 15 February 2019, 03:00 PM   #11
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The watches are only getting older, and conditions only getting worse with age (unless meticulously taken care of). I don't expect to see any reversal of prices.


They are getting older but I don’t think conditions are getting worse. People paying $20k+ for these vintage watches are not beating them up or swimming with them. I think most are part of a larger collection with some true “beater” watches for more rigorous activities.


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Old 15 February 2019, 03:54 PM   #12
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These threads come up all the time and I somewhat agree. This is what's driving me away from vintage Rolex buying lately....and made me sleep better @ night lightening my own vintage collection. I do believe there will be a correction as the good times won't roll forever, but I'm not naive enough to think truly nice pieces are going to take any plunges in my lifetime.
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Old 15 February 2019, 08:44 PM   #13
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I remember turning down a 4 digit daytona for 2.5k ukp, then all of a sudden they were 5, then 8 then 10, then.....
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Old 15 February 2019, 09:57 PM   #14
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They are getting older but I don’t think conditions are getting worse. People paying $20k+ for these vintage watches are not beating them up or swimming with them. I think most are part of a larger collection with some true “beater” watches for more rigorous activities.


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I agree with what you said, however, I didn't mean that collectors wore these watches carelessly. I meant to say you can't turn an old watch back to factory - the older it gets, the more 'hairline scratches' there are. Sooner or later, a good condition, unpolished case will be harder to find than a watch that has seen its fair share of desk diving marks, or a watch that has had its scars polished off. As we know, collectors prefer unpolished, untouched original watches AND in great condition. These are going to get harder, and harder to come by as years go by with old watches.
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Old 15 February 2019, 10:11 PM   #15
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The prices are just what the market currently commands. I do believe that the prices will diminish in the future as the collector base moves on to other items. This may be the peak or close to it for all types of collectable watches. At some point in the near future we will see it fall. How far and how quickly will be interesting to watch. Then we can all talk about when thing were crazy with prices.
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Old 15 February 2019, 10:27 PM   #16
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Yes, it’s very crazy. No, I don’t THINK it will continue.
I think prices for highly collectible, excellent condition prices, will stabilize and maybe rise a bit. I think 90% of the vintage market is filled with cobbled together Franken crap that will decrease back to a level of normalcy soon.
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Old 16 February 2019, 01:44 AM   #17
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I think that the picture probably needs to be a bit more nuanced, not all of these references should be lumped together in the same bucket. What I find strange is the way that current prices are completely decoupled from things that often influence collectible value, e.g. rarity.

For example, roughly speaking, over the past few years, prices on matte dial 5513s have tripled, but the prices on 1655s have gone up by 50%. Does that make sense? Is it sustainable? I doubt it. Really common references in mediocre condition may well see a correction.
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Old 16 February 2019, 03:03 AM   #18
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I remember turning down a 4 digit daytona for 2.5k ukp, then all of a sudden they were 5, then 8 then 10, then.....
I remember sitting in a bar one night in the mid 80’s, or maybe it was morning. Some guy next to me wanted to buy my 6263. He stopped bidding it up at $900 USD. Had he waited for me to have one more drink it would have been his. I’m still enjoying it thankfully.
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Old 17 February 2019, 12:47 AM   #19
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This may be a biased approach, being relatively new to collecting. That said I would guess the watch market potentially follows other markets like the real estate market and stock market?

Looking at 6202 Turn O Graph prices the other day and a graph indicated some were selling in the $30k and up range in 2007 and late 2008 but dropped more in the $15k range during the 9,10,11 years and then started to clime back up. We are again approaching the 9th inning of the markets since the great recession.


Just my thoughts but Im a new guy
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Old 17 February 2019, 03:51 AM   #20
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I have never seen a white 1680 for 20k, that being said I do have an unpolished example all original that I love...
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Old 17 February 2019, 05:08 AM   #21
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For vintage Rolex sports models (Sub, GMT, Daytona, etc ...) the prices will only continue to climb, IMHO. I've see these posts for many years, and the prices have only gone up, never down, not for the good examples anyway.

Now, prices might level off here and there, depending on the economy, but why on earth would prices drop for items that are always in demand but no longer made? Economics 101.
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Old 17 February 2019, 06:39 AM   #22
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For vintage Rolex sports models (Sub, GMT, Daytona, etc ...) the prices will only continue to climb, IMHO. I've see these posts for many years, and the prices have only gone up, never down, not for the good examples anyway.

Now, prices might level off here and there, depending on the economy, but why on earth would prices drop for items that are always in demand but no longer made? Economics 101.
Sorry Aaron, but prices were down for a few models, especially for the high-dollar models, in 2007 after the market crashed - at least for a year or two.

As far as my perspective, this topic has been beat-to-death the last few years - there are many threads here on TRF regarding pricing, crashes, over-pricing etc etc. All anyone has to do is utilize the search function to find them.
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Old 17 February 2019, 07:37 AM   #23
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High condition 4 and 5 digits will continue to increase,Low to middle end Watches May see a correction.How many truly unpolished all original 4 digits are out there? Not many from my Daily searches.
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Old 17 February 2019, 08:01 AM   #24
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Springer is spot on. If there is a recession, prices will drop. Eric Ku mentioned on the hodinkee podcast that during 08 daytona prices halved in a month. This topic is truly like beating a dead horse...
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Old 17 February 2019, 01:16 PM   #25
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For vintage Rolex sports models (Sub, GMT, Daytona, etc ...) the prices will only continue to climb, IMHO. I've see these posts for many years, and the prices have only gone up, never down, not for the good examples anyway.

Now, prices might level off here and there, depending on the economy, but why on earth would prices drop for items that are always in demand but no longer made? Economics 101.
Your economics 101 class must not have covered the correlation between the sudden pullback on consumer discretionary spending caused by recession resulting in inventory surplus with the need for many to still liquidate, followed by lower prices (buyers market).
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Old 17 February 2019, 01:30 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by vtsnowplow View Post
Seems like anything unpolished Rolex 4 digit these days is priced at 20k plus. 1680, 5513, 1675 and 1655. Even starting to see 5 digit subs at 20k as well. Unbelievable prices. Seems just like a poor purchase at these prices. Maybe I am wrong and they are still a deal.
According to your edited updated question, yes we have .
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Old 17 February 2019, 05:12 PM   #27
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Unpolished, unused 40-50 year old watches this collectible will naturally be expensive just like anything coveted or collectible.

I’m into Hifi, stereo gear. Vintage high end gear is collectible and expensive. Vintage Basically new gear that looks like it was in a time capsule is a whole different market. It’s the same with cars, certain weapons.

I never was obsessed with unused things, I like things to be correct and have all the correct parts. Kept up, and as nice as I can afford. There are plenty of really cool watches out there to be had.


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Old 17 February 2019, 06:22 PM   #28
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If interest rates rose to the levels they once were, most of these luxury asset prices would drop through the floor.

People used to get this thing called 'interest' on their savings, it seems an incredible thing now, a basic no penalty, no fixed term account would pay someone 4 to 5 percent.

Somebody with one million pounds could get 40 thousand pounds a year for doing nothing, and having no risk whatsoever.

Its been a good 8 or 9 years now since interest like this vanished, there will be a generation of people who who wouldnt know what the hell it was, it was something that went on for hundreds of years, but ceased abruptly, hence the reason why luxury assets have skyrocketed.

Will savings interest ever come back? I have a feeling the answer is no.

So luxury assets will continue to rise, this of course is just blue collar logic and reason, and not intended to be put forward as fact.
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Old 17 February 2019, 06:38 PM   #29
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I can't remember his name but there is someone on the forum with a NOS (had a black dial) 1675. Can you imagine THAT hitting the market and at what price...
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Old 18 February 2019, 12:49 AM   #30
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Tripled! But 5k was light for a 5513 in 2014...
Heh, Jacek's records show he sold me one on Christmas day 2014 for USD3200 - heaven knows what he'd charge me for that watch today.
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