Interesting Conversation with an AP Boutique

[wiem0014]

As a Rolex/Omega collector who is looking to dip his toes into the AP world I wanted to say thank you to everyone on this board. Reading this every day has been very educational over the last few months.

I would like to purchase my first Royal Oak (15500, Blue Dial) but I live in MN and there isn't a boutique any closer than Chicago. I have a local dealer that has a brand new 15500 for sale, but of course it is at Market Price. Before I pulled the trigger I thought I would call a few boutiques and see what my chances of scoring one at retail in the next 12-18 months would be.

The first boutique I spoke with said that they are not able to take deposits on ANY Royal Oak Model (or Concept) for at least 12 months. He thought that it would take all of 2021 to fill orders that already have deposits. After that they will start taking deposits for those that have expressed interest prior to today.

He said that they hope to be able to take deposits for some women's models and gold models in 2022, but doesn't think they'll be able to take deposits on steel models for "multiple years". Oh, and he reminded me that "this all assumes you are not a first time customer." The second boutique more or less confirmed this message and might've given an even stronger sense.

I know how the game works, and have built a fantastic relationship with a local Rolex AD, but even I had to laugh after this conversation. I know it might be a bit exaggerated, but it has made me more excited to pull the trigger on the local 15500! I'd love to get everyone's thoughts, thanks!

[sgwatchguy]

Looks good on your wrist. If it sings to you, take the leap via a grey dealer. Wait times for RO that too through an AD is mission impossible IMO.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Looks good on your wrist. If it sings to you, take the leap via a grey dealer. Wait times for RO that too through an AD is mission impossible IMO.

Thanks! I assumed that was the case but this conversation seemed to confirm it. I really appreciated what a straight shooter the SA was.

[supernova]

Sounds like the normal spiel from ADs to new customers.

If you can, just save the all the bs and buy grey for instant gratification. Good luck!


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[EEpro]

Love that watch! I prefer the white / silver though myself.

[LuxuryAssets]

Had 3 of em.
Love em especially the 15400st

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Love that watch! I prefer the white / silver though myself.

I was able to try on the Silver and loved that as well. But that blue fits into my collection perfectly and I really think it's the right one for me. That being said, I hate that you end up paying a hefty premium for the blue dial.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by LuxuryAssets

Had 3 of em.
Love em especially the 15400st

I spent a long time learning the differences between the 15400 and 15500. Overall I am somewhat indifferent about the changes to the dial, but I love the slight changes to the back of the watch in the newer version.

[macrowatch]

I have to imagine the new sunburst dial blue code has done “well” in the sense that all the ones shipped in 2020 have actually sold. They aren’t sitting in the cases anymore as of today. I also have to imagine all of those people would get a blue (or any color) 15500 before a new client at this point, and with gray spreads, no one would say no if offered. So I’d either bite the bullet on code plus hope for 15500, or if you are one and done, just vote the gray price.

[Emery]

If you're after the blue and blue only, I'd say go straight to grey.

I personally know someone who got a blue 15500 as his first boutique purchase last year, but he had an absolute whale backing him up.

Also, if you think in terms of annual production (40k pieces usually, fewer in 2020 due to covid), there's probably only a low-thousand pieces of blue 15500s being produced for the global market, so it's not hard to believe that 2021 allocations for any one boutique have all been accounted for.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I have to imagine the new sunburst dial blue code has done “well” in the sense that all the ones shipped in 2020 have actually sold. They aren’t sitting in the cases anymore as of today. I also have to imagine all of those people would get a blue (or any color) 15500 before a new client at this point, and with gray spreads, no one would say no if offered. So I’d either bite the bullet on code plus hope for 15500, or if you are one and done, just vote the gray price.

I absolutely thought about this, buying a Code and then hoping for a 15500 within 12 months or so. Unfortunately my location makes it much more difficult, especially with Covid and lack of travel. In normal years I make it to Vegas and Chicago 3-4 times each which would make things much easier.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by Emery

If you're after the blue and blue only, I'd say go straight to grey.

I personally know someone who got a blue 15500 as his first boutique purchase last year, but he had an absolute whale backing him up.

That would sure help haha!

[chiscott_29]

I agree if you want blue and you don’t want to wait, going through a dealer is the only way.

Of course, if there are more available models that you really would enjoy, I say start buying and build the relationship and you’ll have the blue dial in 2-3 years. You have to be careful as only select AP models fetch over retail and you’re likely to lose your shirt trying to chase a blue dial by thinking you’ll sell what you buy along the way.

I think even I have underestimated how hard it is to get a 15500 right now in any color. I suspect that will get better over the course of 2021, but still a Blue dial seems to be for existing customers only (or in your example you have a really “big dog” backing you).


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[fullofboats]

I agree with others here that if you want the blue 15500 just pay the market price and skip the ordeal of building a relationship and waiting.

Right now the hype around AP is absolutely bonkers. Partly it’s financial markets related, but mostly it’s because AP really is a small brand. 40k pieces per year (and lower in 2020 due to COVID) vs 1mn from Rolex. If you have even 5,000 new customers to AP prices and waiting times go through the roof as we are seeing.

Personally, I’d reconsider if you “need” to have a blue dial 15500. You can find much better value than paying 40k for a blue 15500. The other colour 15500s, older RO models, or non blue chrono 26331 are all cheaper. Or, if you absolutely need a blue RO I’d rather pay 50k for a jumbo than 40k for a 15500.


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[GS93108]

If the watch market keeps going as it is then IF you won’t get one through an AD at retail then by the time that you are allocated one then todays grey market prices won’t seem too bad.

Having said that, I’m not sure that your conversations with AP are actually definitive. Deposits aren’t a pre-requisite. Unfortunately telephone calls with AD’s are somewhat worthless unless backup by an in person visit, else you are just one in a million calls they receive.

There are many threads on here about the US and the lack of boutiques, so have a read of those and maybe make the effort to take a trip.

[macrowatch]

FWIW, remember the corporate boutiques only collect deposit once they know the watch is coming in for you. Which means both the watch is now available in inventory and they've decided to pick your spot in line.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

FWIW, remember the corporate boutiques only collect deposit once they know the watch is coming in for you. Which means both the watch is now available in inventory and they've decided to pick your spot in line.

[1William]

Market value is market value. I do not mind paying Grey prices if the watch is supported by my research and time to hold it's value. There are plenty of examples out there where people will say they will not pay X for a watch only to watch it push out thousands of dollars. I think the watch looks great on your wrist and it is what you want. Go get it and enjoy the ownership experience.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

FWIW, remember the corporate boutiques only collect deposit once they know the watch is coming in for you. Which means both the watch is now available in inventory and they've decided to pick your spot in line.

Hmmm, this is an interesting wrinkle to my conversation. I figured it was the normal "new customer" bullshit but seemed very honest. Based on this it seems he may have embellished a bit which I actually understand.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by 1William

Market value is market value. I do not mind paying Grey prices if the watch is supported by my research and time to hold it's value. There are plenty of examples out there where people will say they will not pay X for a watch only to watch it push out thousands of dollars. I think the watch looks great on your wrist and it is what you want. Go get it and enjoy the ownership experience.

I tend to agree, as long as the value has been there long term and it doesn't look like market prices are a flash in the pan. For the 15500 I know they have risen recently, but the value does seem to be there long term. And either way, I expect this to be a lifetime keeper for me so value isn't as important.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by wiem0014

Hmmm, this is an interesting wrinkle to my conversation. I figured it was the normal "new customer" bullshit but seemed very honest. Based on this it seems he may have embellished a bit which I actually understand.

I mean I think at this point they have their standard polite no line down with lots of practice. But it would make practical sense that X number of codes have already sold, that number exceeds the number of RO they know are coming in, which puts you out to the 2022 lottery for better or worse.

When it was 2019 and the codes weren’t moving, I suspect it was still possible to get the walk in RO lottery as first watch. Just my gauge on changing inventory for whatever that’s worth. Good luck either way! It’s a nice addition to a heavy Rolex collection.

[puckybadger]

MSRP stands for "suggested" retail price which has nothing to do with actual retail prices

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I mean I think at this point they have their standard polite no line down with lots of practice. But it would make practical sense that X number of codes have already sold, that number exceeds the number of RO they know are coming in, which puts you out to the 2022 lottery for better or worse.

When it was 2019 and the codes weren’t moving, I suspect it was still possible to get the walk in RO lottery as first watch. Just my gauge on changing inventory for whatever that’s worth. Good luck either way! It’s a nice addition to a heavy Rolex collection.

My thoughts exactly, thanks!

[Reign]

While the blue 15500 is $40k at grey prices (and recognizing AP churns out a decent amount of these), you arguably get more watch at that price point than even a Nautilus at retail.

If this is going to be your only AP, skip the line, snag the 15500 from the grey dealer and don’t look back

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

FWIW, remember the corporate boutiques only collect deposit once they know the watch is coming in for you. Which means both the watch is now available in inventory and they've decided to pick your spot in line.

This doesn't hold all the time, either. NYC took a deposit on me for a Silver 15500 and then two months later said "no, sorry". Sure, they refunded me. But, I'm personally done with NYC. I'll let the big dogs fight it out there...It's absolutely senseless to even try if you don't already have an established relationship.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

FWIW, remember the corporate boutiques only collect deposit once they know the watch is coming in for you. Which means both the watch is now available in inventory and they've decided to pick your spot in line.

Yeah, my understanding from the boutique here was that they will only take deposits (of 30%) for watches that are in their annual allocation and that they have designated for a particular customer, depending on the customer's place in the pecking order. This seems like a good idea to me - cuts down on people adding their name to waitlists left and right and provides some planning certainty for everyone involved.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Yeah, my understanding from the boutique here was that they will only take deposits (of 30%) for watches that are in their annual allocation and that they have designated for a particular customer, depending on the customer's place in the pecking order. This seems like a good idea to me - cuts down on people adding their name to waitlists left and right and provides some planning certainty for everyone involved.

I agree, seems like a solid system. And, I did appreciate both SA's shooting it to me "relatively" straight.

[ReturningSon]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Yeah, my understanding from the boutique here was that they will only take deposits (of 30%) for watches that are in their annual allocation and that they have designated for a particular customer, depending on the customer's place in the pecking order. This seems like a good idea to me - cuts down on people adding their name to waitlists left and right and provides some planning certainty for everyone involved.

It seems to me that AP is following what other brand-owned boutiques are doing, allocating future stock deliveries based on deposit instead of a magical "interest/wait-list". Doesn't mean it will be any easier to get a 15500 especially if you have no relationship with the boutique, might even be harder if indeed what the SA said was true in the OP that they are sold out for the year. A code 11.59 might likely move you on up but I literally have no idea if that is indeed the case.

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by ReturningSon

It seems to me that AP is following what other brand-owned boutiques are doing, allocating future stock deliveries based on deposit instead of a magical "interest/wait-list". Doesn't mean it will be any easier to get a 15500 especially if you have no relationship with the boutique, might even be harder if indeed what the SA said was true in the OP that they are sold out for the year. A code 11.59 might likely move you on up but I literally have no idea if that is indeed the case.

They definitely made it clear that being an existing customer would help, but said they still wouldn't be able to take a deposit from me for a long time. My primary issues with going that route is lack of AP boutiques in my region and honestly I really don't like much of the AP line outside of Royal Oak's. From what others have said I think i am going to go the gray route and scratch my itch immediately.

[Mbbgysam]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

This doesn't hold all the time, either. NYC took a deposit on me for a Silver 15500 and then two months later said "no, sorry". Sure, they refunded me. But, I'm personally done with NYC. I'll let the big dogs fight it out there...It's absolutely senseless to even try if you don't already have an established relationship.

That's rough. Did they give you any reason, e.g. lower allocation than expected due to COVID?

Originally Posted by ReturningSon

It seems to me that AP is following what other brand-owned boutiques are doing, allocating future stock deliveries based on deposit instead of a magical "interest/wait-list". Doesn't mean it will be any easier to get a 15500 especially if you have no relationship with the boutique, might even be harder if indeed what the SA said was true in the OP that they are sold out for the year. A code 11.59 might likely move you on up but I literally have no idea if that is indeed the case.

The certainly aren't making any promises these days, even with the 11.59s.