Goodbye 5711, but will prices go up or down?

[GeraldGentaFan]

Originally Posted by taylorhall

To clarify this rumor... it is both the 5711/1R and 5711/1A?

I would think so, but I did not specifically ask about the rose gold. I was just told that the 5711 is discontinued.

But then again they previously discontinued 5980 1a and kept the 5980 1r...

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by GeraldGentaFan

I would think so, but I did not specifically ask about the rose gold. I was just told that the 5711 is discontinued.

But then again they previously discontinued 5980 1a and kept the 5980 1r...

I was told only 5711/1A will be discontinued and 5711/1R will remain on the catalogue. We will find out in the next week or two.

[myporsche]

Good riddance, I hope so. The ego level of all the current owners went up a few points to boiling levels.

[subtona]

Imho Too few for a price dip to be expected.

[ragsk]

Suppose there is no blue dial in the version, prices and demand for the current one will go nuts.

Is that w likely scenario?

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ts3

While the version with 330 movement will have had a short run in the 5711 so has the 315 movement, the LED dial, the transitional model with current dial but 324 movement etc. Lots of more and less rare variants out there. Doesn't seem to matter much in terms of desirability and secondary market prices. Most people want the 5711 for its iconic status and design and don't seem to care a lot for the details.

I'd love if they replaced the SS versions with WG and/or YG variants with the clasp of the 5740 but left the 40mm size unchanged.

If the 5711 blue is on the run-out list I expect prices to slightly increase initially and go into reverse if and when a new blue SS Nautilus will be launched as most people will likely want the new one.

True about the movements and slight dial color and print variations on the 5711. This ain't Rolex Submariner territory. A 5711 is a 5711, the newer the better.

[Sirocco]

Like everyone, I'm going to give my point of view...

If the new models are a significant upgrade from the current models (i.e. new movement, better clasp and maybe bigger case), I think the market will of the 5711/12 & cie will go down a bit. For example, right now grey dealers are asking +/- €80k for a 5712 in Europe and I wouldn't be surprised if that come down to a sweet €60k.

But if there's no major changes, I don't see the current market going down...

[Keldw]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Good riddance, I hope so. The ego level of all the current owners went up a few points to boiling levels.

TBH, I haven’t worn mine for nearly a year due to the hype. It sort of made me lose interest in it, even though it was my go-to everyday watch for a few years


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[Ichiran]

Will be sad to see the end of 5711. This is the most well-known 4-digit reference in the world of modern horology, in my view.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Who remembers the smaller steel Aquanaut?

I'd love a 5165, but £35k is taking the micky.

On the 5711: all those who have one - enjoy it! It was, is, and always will be a lovely watch.

On the 5711 replacement: all those who buy one - enjoy it! I'm sure it'll be awesome!

Wear and enjoy the damn things. The 'value' is theoretical until the day you decide to realise it. They're just watches people... they're not (or should not be) investible assets, especially not items that are, for all intents and purposes, common and mass produced.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Who remembers the smaller steel Aquanaut?

Guess the 5168 is XXl

[fsprow]

My guess (probably worthless) is that they will just drop the stainless 5711 1A and retain the PM and complicated versions. Reinforcing the Patek emphasis on high end watches.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by fsprow

My guess (probably worthless) is that they will just drop the stainless 5711 1A and retain the PM and complicated versions. Reinforcing the Patek emphasis on high end watches.

Hope TS is listening...

[cascavel]

I've got to believe this is about reissuing the SS 5711 in a souped up version at a price level of around $45K rather than having to incrementally raise the price of the existing 5711/1a by 10% every year and, thereby, taking 4 years to get there.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GeraldGentaFan

Spoke to several ADs today and all believed it will be discontinued. One told me a source at PP confirmed it.

But to deduct that discontinued will mean price increase is not necessarily correct imo. It all depends on when and what PP will replace the 5711 with. I am fortunate to own many of the versions of the 5711 (latest one, transition model, geneva seal, white dial, rose gold...) and hope its value will increase, but I am not sure. If the new model has the same size but comes with bracelet sizing on the go, blue date wheel like 15202st...the demand for new one will be crazy.

The people who have driven up the 5711 prices tend to be buyers who always want the latest and greatest, and no doubt the 6711 will be exactly that. So if the 6711 is released at the same moment that the 5711 is discontinued, demand and prices for the 5711 might even go down. I hope PP will wait 6-12 months with the successor watch, and then we should see some price hikes, at least for some months...

A quick check on Chrono24 indicates that the price will go up. At least initially.

[Rushne]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I've got to believe this is about reissuing the SS 5711 in a souped up version at a price level of around $45K rather than having to incrementally raise the price of the existing 5711/1a by 10% every year and, thereby, taking 4 years to get there.

I have a feeling you are right but really hope not as, come on. A 3 hander for 45k in steel is insanity

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by fsprow

My guess (probably worthless) is that they will just drop the stainless 5711 1A and retain the PM and complicated versions. Reinforcing the Patek emphasis on high end watches.

This.

[Xpatcan1]

Originally Posted by Sirocco

Like everyone, I'm going to give my point of view...

If the new models are a significant upgrade from the current models (i.e. new movement, better clasp and maybe bigger case), I think the market will of the 5711/12 & cie will go down a bit. For example, right now grey dealers are asking +/- €80k for a 5712 in Europe and I wouldn't be surprised if that come down to a sweet €60k.

But if there's no major changes, I don't see the current market going down...

This appears logical, but I don’t see that happening and we have Rolex as a recent example of the opposite. For example, 116610LN was discontinued for the new and improved 126610LN, huge premium instantly for the new model and this dragged prices up on the 116610.
I suspect the 6711 will have an insane grey market premium and this will drag the 5711 up to new heights, likely not the same or more then a new model but higher then today.

[Bloomberg]

All guys saying 5711 price will go down do not have a clear idea on how watch market works.
5711 is the patient 0 of hype of sport steel watches. All began with the 5711.
If a new steel model is released (and that’s not sure), a better power reserve or a new clasp will not affect the 5711 status and it desirability.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Bloomberg

All guys saying 5711 price will go down do not have a clear idea on how watch market works.
5711 is the patient 0 of hype of sport steel watches. All began with the 5711.
If a new steel model is released (and that’s not sure), a better power reserve or a new clasp will not affect the 5711 status and it desirability.

5711 isn’t patient 0 in terms of driving the stainless steel sport watch craze. The Zenith Daytona started it and in terms of demand to supply ratio I suspect the Daytona > Nautilus.

[alika]

I'm just sad about 5711 is going to be discontinued..

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Bloomberg

All guys saying 5711 price will go down do not have a clear idea on how watch market works.
5711 is the patient 0 of hype of sport steel watches. All began with the 5711.
If a new steel model is released (and that’s not sure), a better power reserve or a new clasp will not affect the 5711 status and it desirability.

There was me thinking it started with the 3700.

The King is dead, long live the King.

[mineral]

The 5711 price already on upward trend and will continue to go UP even faster once discontinued.

Don’t see any reason it will go down in price.


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[Russell996]

Originally Posted by mineral

The 5711 price already on upward trend and will continue to go UP even faster once discontinued.

Don’t see any reason it will go down in price.


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Prices will go down when all those holding the piece as an investment realise the piece has reached the top of the market and now is the time to take the profit before the market drops. At a conservative estimate there are probably 20,000 SS 5711's in the wild, given the recent market I would estimate more than half of those that have purchased in the last 5 years have done so to make money - surely no-one can think at the current used price that the 5711 is a sensible buy? Now the watch market is a strange place and there is so much inter dealer purchasing going on that prices can move up without any change to actual demand, in the same way they can drop back very quickly when the dealers realise the new high water mark that they falsely set doesn't represent the real market demand.

Only time will tell. I personally look forward to the new piece as a few changes will really make it a better piece - still only to be purchased at MSRP though.

[Valedictorian]

With all due respect, there is no such thing as “top of the market” in this field. As long as there are affluent collectors, the sky is the limit.

Prices for select brands have never dropped beyond the regular Elliott wave patterns we also experience in the stock market, no matter how often folks express wishful thinking - this has been true for decades. With discontinuation in sight, the 5711 is now more comparable to the Rolex 5517 than ever before, and the latter has consistently outperformed all price expectations.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Valedictorian

With all due respect, there is no such thing as “top of the market” in this field. As long as there are affluent collectors, the sky is the limit.

Prices for select brands have never dropped beyond the regular Elliott wave patterns we also experience in the stock market, no matter how often folks express wishful thinking - this has been true for decades. With discontinuation in sight, the 5711 is now more comparable to the Rolex 5517 than ever before, and the latter has consistently outperformed all price expectations.

And let me guess, Dubai property in 2008 was totally not a bubble or "top of the market".

[Valedictorian]

I’m an expat and your comparison is provocative and out of context. Be kind to people with a different opinion.

[Stevie_Goodlife]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I've got to believe this is about reissuing the SS 5711 in a souped up version at a price level of around $45K rather than having to incrementally raise the price of the existing 5711/1a by 10% every year and, thereby, taking 4 years to get there.

Seems right on...

Separately if Chrono24 is an indicator prices have jumped substantially. 5711s > -$100k


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[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Valedictorian

With all due respect, there is no such thing as “top of the market” in this field. As long as there are affluent collectors, the sky is the limit.

Prices for select brands have never dropped beyond the regular Elliott wave patterns we also experience in the stock market, no matter how often folks express wishful thinking - this has been true for decades. With discontinuation in sight, the 5711 is now more comparable to the Rolex 5517 than ever before, and the latter has consistently outperformed all price expectations.

You are presupposing if is affluent collectors driving the price, I’m not so sure this is true with so many having been made.

[ragsk]

Prices now going even more insane on C24. Some sellers now asking $130,000+

If I sell the three 5711 models I currently have (gold, white and blue), I'd be able to buy my son a small flat in a few months the rate these are going up.

Crazy crazy and even more crazy. Anyone buying at those prices is a muppet.