Is the Bubble Bursting

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Damn! My Rolex portfolio took a slight dip today because of this thread. But I also bought the dip (brains, Harvard) so Rolex people (best) win again.

Love it.

[dpt.calvin]

Do pigs fly?

[TunaTuna]

My AD's cases are nearly full with almost every sport model. Weird though, all the watches show a time of 10:09. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on a panda Daytona

[Chester01]

No, lol nothing is bursting. The shelves are always full for the big spenders and empty for the rest.

Rolex knows the deal. As Mark Twain commented about his character Tom Sawyer, he discovered a great law of human action. In order to make a man or boy covet a thing, its only necessary to make that thing difficult to attain. Business know this is a flaw if you will in human psychology, effort and difficulty increase the value of a thing. Same phenomena has been shown in animal studies. You think they don't know this and are not exploiting it. Come on now. Every lux brand out there plays the same game.

[Jack T]

That’s 1,200 watches a year. At an average retail price of $10,000 that store would be grossing $12 million annually, netting $4 to $5 million… I doubt that very much.

[Realezt01]

Not bad niceee

[28mm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

No, lol nothing is bursting. The shelves are always full for the big spenders and empty for the rest.

Rolex knows the deal. As Mark Twain commented about his character Tom Sawyer, he discovered a great law of human action. In order to make a man or boy covet a thing, its only necessary to make that thing difficult to attain. Business know this is a flaw if you will in human psychology, effort and difficulty increase the value of a thing. Same phenomena has been shown in animal studies. You think they don't know this and are not exploiting it. Come on now. Every lux brand out there plays the same game.

Don't break the spell!

[quantumdna]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

Went to AD yesterday and picked up two new rolexes (OP 31 Green and a new Submariner No Date). We had a nice conversation and the salesperson mentioned they are now getting 25 Rolexes per week compared to 5 per week a month ago. He said getting Date Just were pretty easy now. Went back by AD today (my office is down the street) and he had a 126334 in the Window for sale. Also went to two Rolex non dealers and they said they have also heard supply is increasing alot.

Anyone else experiencing increased Retail options? Falling Grey Market prices?

That is odd.. I live in Dallas.. which AD is this? May be we share an AD.. LOL.

[Edb5020]

Originally Posted by Jack T

That’s 1,200 watches a year. At an average retail price of $10,000 that store would be grossing $12 million annually, netting $4 to $5 million… I doubt that very much.

Easily true. Rolex produces 1M watches a year. If every AD only got 1200 a year, that would mean there are 833 ADs. Are there 833 ADs globally?

[mquarter]

Grey prices won't fall. Margins are thin, they'd rather let the watches sit there collecting dust than make a loss.

[Ensign]

Well, I have seen a lot of Cermits and Steel GMTs on the grey market. Prices are still high, but greys seem to be selling them more slowly.

At some point everyone’s watch box will be full, right?

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

Went to AD yesterday and picked up two new rolexes (OP 31 Green and a new Submariner No Date). We had a nice conversation and the salesperson mentioned they are now getting 25 Rolexes per week compared to 5 per week a month ago. He said getting Date Just were pretty easy now. Went back by AD today (my office is down the street) and he had a 126334 in the Window for sale. Also went to two Rolex non dealers and they said they have also heard supply is increasing alot.

Anyone else experiencing increased Retail options? Falling Grey Market prices?

Must just be where you are.
Polar opposites here

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

I agree and I may have misunderstood....maybe he meant 5 per month compared to 25 per month. I know at their peak before covid he said that they normally had 300+ Rolexes in inventory.

But the bigger picture is anyone else seeing increased supplies????

My AD sales person told me similar things - about 3x increase in shipments - Rolex is cranking them out. Lots of my friends receiving calls about their allocations. So yes, it seems they are firing on all cylinders for the holiday season.

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by mquarter

Grey prices won't fall. Margins are thin, they'd rather let the watches sit there collecting dust than make a loss.

Cash rich Greys might do that - leveraged or smaller greys might not be able to and NEED to sell to free up capital. And we have seen an incredible influx in "dealers" in the last 24 months. It's easy in booming markets - but only the really good dealers will survive a downturn....

[Neom]

If they are indeed firing all the watches out on all cylinders before the holidays, I expect to see quality defects and the loupe gang show up.

[Madman37]

Everyone is worried that this will or is happening that’s why your being asked for pics.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

smaller greys might not be able to and NEED to sell to free up capital. And we have seen an incredible influx in "dealers" in the last 24 months. It's easy in booming markets - but only the really good dealers will survive a downturn....

Yes. Furthermore, I don't think it's the small, inexperienced speculators who are driving the market. They are just parasites who will move onto something else, if they have the means to finance it.

IIRC, this time of year usually sees more new watches arriving at ADs and a simultaneous hike in grey asking prices. I wonder why?!

Best to check again in March.

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Yes. Furthermore, I don't think it's the small, inexperienced speculators who are driving the market. They are just parasites who will move onto something else, if they have the means to finance it.

IIRC, this time of year usually sees more new watches arriving at ADs and a simultaneous hike in grey asking prices. I wonder why?!

Best to check again in March.

Agree with you. However the small dealers can tip the scale and set a trend. for some watch models it doesn't take much to see the price go onto a downward spiral. Imagine you are leveraged in a specific model - and it's slowly loosing value over a few weeks or months, eventually you might just want to cut your losses and then need to sell in a falling market - which will accelerate the fall.

It has happened often before - so wouldn't be surprised to see it happening. Maybe not with Daytonas - but with OPs, DJs, AirKings, etc.

[Tanalasta]

There’s been deliveries for Christmas. And some very desirable models in the drop. But I can’t really say supply > demand. They’re still selling what they sell


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Edb5020

Easily true. Rolex produces 1M watches a year. If every AD only got 1200 a year, that would mean there are 833 ADs. Are there 833 ADs globally?

Less than that. I counted one time in their website.


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[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

It has happened often before - so wouldn't be surprised to see it happening. Maybe not with Daytonas - but with OPs, DJs, AirKings, etc.

That would be a sudden outbreak of common sense.

[garyk]

No words…

[Tensai]

There is no shortage.
Countless people have the same collection of spanking new ceramic GMTs, green variation Sub, etc.
They are great watches but nothing special.

[BroncoOne]

ADs typically get a bit more stock for the holidays, like retailers of every kind.

Rolex still only produces about 750,000-800,000 watches a year and there are millions of people in the world (all of whom know the name Rolex) coming of age and wanting a watch every year. Many of them are becoming prosperous enough to afford a Rolex thanks to the ever booming global economy.

Many more are born every day and when they come of age and have money in a few decades, Rolex will still be making only so many watches.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Rolex still only produces about 750,000-800,000 watches a year

That's the last number I saw. Although it's actually 750,005 - 800,005 if you include their yearly production of Sky Dwellers. Or so I'm told.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Edb5020

Easily true. Rolex produces 1M watches a year. If every AD only got 1200 a year, that would mean there are 833 ADs. Are there 833 ADs globally?

Originally Posted by Chester01

Less than that. I counted one time in their website.

Way off. There are over 1,600 authorized Rolex retailer locations around the world.

But, that number is largely irrelevant to this discussion because ''total estimated production divided by total number of global AD locations" is a meaningless number.

Production is allocated strategically based on demand, growth potential, exchange rates, and probably 10 other factors.

China and United States alone account for app. 30% of global demand. The top six countries probably get over half of ALL production. Then, within each territory, shipments go to the best dealers. In the U.S., this means Watches of Switzerland in NYC probably gets 10X the shipments of the Rolex AD in Little Rock, Arkansas.

All stores are not equal.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

Agree with you. However the small dealers can tip the scale and set a trend. for some watch models it doesn't take much to see the price go onto a downward spiral. Imagine you are leveraged in a specific model - and it's slowly loosing value over a few weeks or months, eventually you might just want to cut your losses and then need to sell in a falling market - which will accelerate the fall.



It has happened often before - so wouldn't be surprised to see it happening. Maybe not with Daytonas - but with OPs, DJs, AirKings, etc.

I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

My own OP36 now has asking prices ranging from $7,500 to $8,000 plus shipping. Just one year ago I paid below MSRP for mine. Makes no sense.

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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Way off. There are over 1,600 authorized Rolex retailer locations around the world.

But, that number is largely irrelevant to this discussion because ''total estimated production divided total number of global AD locations" is a meaningless number.

Production is allocated based on demand. China and United States alone account for app. 30% of global demand. The top six countries probably get over half of ALL production. Then, within each territory, shipments go to the best dealers. In the U.S., this means Watches of Switzerland in NYC probably gets 10X the shipments of the Rolex AD in Little Rock, Arkansas. All ADs are not equal.

Did you count? I did. Took me a while. In any event that’s public data. Any other info such as allocation is speculation at best. I am all for using reason, but let’s be clear on the limitations of what’s known.

I will direct you to my Mark Twain comments above. Rolex knows what’s up, and let’s say I don’t play games so don’t have a horse in the race.


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[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Mendota

I think the $15,000 Oyster Perpetuals will lead the cascade of selling when the scales tip. There's no planet where an Oyster Perpetual has that level of intrinsic value.

My own OP36 now has asking prices ranging from $7,500 to $8,000 plus shipping. Just one year ago I paid below MSRP for mine. Makes no sense.

I think the canary is going to be the TT Datejust -- as that is made in significant quantities. When you see those start to drop to MSRP in the secondary channel, that is the signal that (within 6-12 months), Datejusts should be much more available from ADs again.

[Mystro]

Let’s circle back:The OP said he picked up 2 Rolex watches. Let’s see a pic of these watches first then indulge all the bubble talk you want.