Is the Bubble Bursting

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Way off. There are over 1,600 authorized Rolex retailer locations around the world.

But, that number is largely irrelevant to this discussion because ''total estimated production divided by total number of global AD locations" is a meaningless number.

Production is allocated strategically based on demand, growth potential, exchange rates, and probably 10 other factors.

China and United States alone account for app. 30% of global demand. The top six countries probably get over half of ALL production. Then, within each territory, shipments go to the best dealers. In the U.S., this means Watches of Switzerland in NYC probably gets 10X the shipments of the Rolex AD in Little Rock, Arkansas.

All stores are not equal.

Thank you for your correct information, not sure why anyone argues that there are less dealers than there are in the world…or that they all receive the same amount of merchandise.
I just happened to visit the local dealer in my new smaller market yesterday, one of just four in my state. Although anyone can wait on you there, two guys are the resident watch experts (Rolex, Tudor, and some fashion brand I’d never heard of). One of them told me freely that they are under the new mandate of keeping 25(?) pieces in stock although they are all in the safe. He asked what I was interested in, mentioned the red OP41, he said the only OP41 they had was black, he even checked to see if they had a red in any size but did not.
We discussed their allocation numbers versus my big city Boutique where I got my other pieces and they nodded along that they got probably 1/4 to 1/2 what the big dealer got. They do get some of all models though and said they would welcome me as a new customer. Time will tell, I am likely to get the OP from my previous dealer first but won’t count the new one out yet.
PS: all three of my last purchases arrived in the November-December timeframe so I do believe dealers get holiday bonuses.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Let’s circle back:The OP said he picked up 2 Rolex watches. Let’s see a pic of these watches first then indulge all the bubble talk you want.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Way off. There are over 1,600 authorized Rolex retailer locations around the world.

But, that number is largely irrelevant to this discussion because ''total estimated production divided by total number of global AD locations" is a meaningless number.

Production is allocated strategically based on demand, growth potential, exchange rates, and probably 10 other factors.

China and United States alone account for app. 30% of global demand. The top six countries probably get over half of ALL production. Then, within each territory, shipments go to the best dealers. In the U.S., this means Watches of Switzerland in NYC probably gets 10X the shipments of the Rolex AD in Little Rock, Arkansas.

All stores are not equal.

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[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Let’s circle back:The OP said he picked up 2 Rolex watches. Let’s see a pic of these watches first then indulge all the bubble talk you want.

Great point. We were all spinning our wheels going down the rabbit hole and the obvious question was never addressed: it's been days and still no pics of the watches.

OP - Can we see some pics and celebrate with you?

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[nosignalbmwdriver]

Got a TT oyster sky black dial from the AD last week. Now I wonder if Rolex will continue restricting supply and raising prices. I would’t mind LOL

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

Went to AD yesterday and picked up two new rolexes (OP 31 Green and a new Submariner No Date). We had a nice conversation and the salesperson mentioned they are now getting 25 Rolexes per week compared to 5 per week a month ago. He said getting Date Just were pretty easy now. Went back by AD today (my office is down the street) and he had a 126334 in the Window for sale. Also went to two Rolex non dealers and they said they have also heard supply is increasing alot.

Anyone else experiencing increased Retail options? Falling Grey Market prices?

All the AD’s by me get bigger shipments in December for the Holidays.

[novae500]

Just returned back from my local AD. Totally empty today. A month ago there were 2 ladies PM watches diamond bezel and dials. Didn’t see my SA but another one. Tried on a couple of the exhibit ones.

Asked how is the supply? SA said they are getting more in each week but all allocated for. Too much demand than supply can keep up with. More GMTs than PM models she sees.

Still holding on to get the call for BLRO before end of the year.


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[Gab27]

I dont think the bubble is bursting simply because demand so far exceeds supply. Even if Rolex doubled their output tomorrow, there would likely still be tons of people wanting watches that cannot get them from an AD.

We might be at a point where ADs have full time staff they pay just to field Rolex phone calls.

[ks58]

There isn't a bubble when there is so much demand.

[mquarter]

Originally Posted by ks58

There isn't a bubble when there is so much demand.

Exactly.

[TswaneNguni]

Rolex is a rare company not increasing MRSP significantly with so much demand for their product .
They will do it over time ,10-20% every year .Increase % depending on reference.

[Recondope]

Originally Posted by STEELINOCKS

Rolex used to be the dapper’s brand. Now it has become the poor man’s brand. Just like the majority of people in forums like this one… should you all had settled for your casios maybe the people who can actually afford a luxury watch’d had gotten one

I mean absolutely no disrespect but that is a load of horse manure. Once upon a time Rolex watches were used as actual tools by real professionals such as divers and pilots. Now a days, it may be more about the status symbol and jewelry but that was not always the case.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by STEELINOCKS

Rolex used to be the dapper’s brand. Now it has become the poor man’s brand. Just like the majority of people in forums like this one… should you all had settled for your casios maybe the people who can actually afford a luxury watch’d had gotten one

[dnd2984]

:

Originally Posted by STEELINOCKS

Rolex used to be the dapper’s brand. Now it has become the poor man’s brand. Just like the majority of people in forums like this one… should you all had settled for your casios maybe the people who can actually afford a luxury watch’d had gotten one

Solid first post.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Sixanthonies

Went to AD yesterday and picked up two new rolexes (OP 31 Green and a new Submariner No Date). We had a nice conversation and the salesperson mentioned they are now getting 25 Rolexes per week compared to 5 per week a month ago. He said getting Date Just were pretty easy now. Went back by AD today (my office is down the street) and he had a 126334 in the Window for sale. Also went to two Rolex non dealers and they said they have also heard supply is increasing alot.

Anyone else experiencing increased Retail options? Falling Grey Market prices?

[GreatCircle]

Originally Posted by STEELINOCKS

I meant no disrespect either, that’s how things are nowadays. Not to mention the grey ***. How many of you here “bought a submariner for this much and sold it a few days:months later for this much?” And for what? To make a couple of 4 digits. The so called investors. Gordon Ghekos.
Then you log in the forums and complain. “My ad this my ad that”.

Well……You do have a point here …
This actually could have been a secret post from the Rolex CEO expressing his frustration what is happening with “his” brand! ;)
It’s the most adequate resume of 75 percent of the topics over here I have ever read.

[Cigars&Watches]

At my AD yesterday. The bubble is not bursting, it’s getting bigger. In the last year till now they have always had some models in the case. Little less very time I went in but still had some models. Yesterday when I went in even the ladies section was completely empty. Not one model in the case. When I asked my SA how demand was they said it’s getting worse.

[Cigars&Watches]

Originally Posted by STEELINOCKS

I meant no disrespect either, that’s how things are nowadays. Not to mention the grey ***. How many of you here “bought a submariner for this much and sold it a few days:months later for this much?” And for what? To make a couple of 4 digits. The so called investors. Gordon Ghekos.
Then you log in the forums and complain. “My ad this my ad that”.

Ummm, I haven’t done this… How long have you been reading this forum for? I would say the vast majority of people on this forum are watch lovers and do not flip a sub for “4 digits” as you say… You’re posts are out of line especially for a noob

[Ichiran]

Can't wait for the bubble to burst. Longing for the days I can walk into any AD to buy any watch I want at 20% off.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Can't wait for the bubble to burst. Longing for the days I can walk into any AD to buy any watch I want at 20% off.

Just for the sake of being able to buy more frivolous watches?


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[ndong]

I can’t speak on bubble bursting but I walked in to a boutique in my area and walked out with a sub no date. No waiting for months.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by ndong

I can’t speak on bubble bursting but I walked in to a boutique in my area and walked out with a sub no date. No waiting for months.

Any prior purchase history or nah?

[ndong]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Any prior purchase history or nah?

No purchase history and first time walking into the boutique. Granted it was my 40th birthday and the rep I was talking to at my boutique surprised me with it when I was thinking I’d have to wait a year or so.

[liberalclown]

There is an excess demand, even the most inflated prices decrease, it will only create another peak. Rolex is a commodity and a good one, while most of the assets are depreciating with inflation, rate hikes, covid fears, Rolex became a safe heaven to park cash.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Can't wait for the bubble to burst. Longing for the days I can walk into any AD to buy any watch I want at 20% off.

As they say, be careful what you wish for. The same market conditions that could result in that scenario would likely wreak havoc on the financial markets at the same time. So your 20% discount on the Rolex could represent a much larger haircut off the rest of your capital on a larger scale. I'd rather keep my capital and patiently wait my turn for the Rolex I want at MSRP.

[DRS Enabled]

The bubble is bursting. Can confirm this is true. Went to my AD yesterday and got a Rainbow Daytona at list. No purchase history.

[1sttimerolex]

Originally Posted by ndong

No purchase history and first time walking into the boutique. Granted it was my 40th birthday and the rep I was talking to at my boutique surprised me with it when I was thinking I’d have to wait a year or so.

Have a similar story - a friend's wife called (no in-person visits) all the AD's in the area for a couple of months for my friend's upcoming 50th and left her info with a few of them. One of them called her back literally 2 days later telling her she can get the Batgirl if she shows up to get it that day. No prior purchase history or any relationship with the SA.

Granted this was August 2020, and may as well have been a fluke. But goes to show you just never know!

[VG10]

Originally Posted by ndong

No purchase history and first time walking into the boutique. Granted it was my 40th birthday and the rep I was talking to at my boutique surprised me with it when I was thinking I’d have to wait a year or so.

First post for me….. this exact thing happened to me today. Walked in, no purchase history and they sold me a sub no date. I almost fell off the chair.

[majidessa]

It is either Rolex is delivering more watches or some are being extremely lucky, also it is possible that because of the negative marketing regarding Rolex availability people have started to look elsewhere as they are fed up with Rolex.

In a month or two I believe we shall have a clear picture of what's going on, personally I would be happier if more watches become available even if it means that secondary market prices will start to drop although I can tell from reading some of the posts that some are happy with current situation and don't want to lose money.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by DRS Enabled

The bubble is bursting. Can confirm this is true. Went to my AD yesterday and got a Rainbow Daytona at list. No purchase history.

Ban