ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
24 April 2019, 02:43 AM | #31 |
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Economic depression or WW3 will do it..
For those on the ego fantasy that the good times will never end.. Look out.. It wont take much to knock things out of kilter for Rolex..just 1 major disaster.. |
24 April 2019, 02:48 AM | #32 |
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24 April 2019, 02:54 AM | #33 |
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House prices may have dropped in value in the wake of the 2018 recession, but they have not collapsed. The bubble was unsustainable and adjustment, was necessary. The madness did not vanish, it just got damped. People still can't afford to buy houses and are renting in increasing numbers (UK perspective).
I think the present situation is likely to be the new normal. Demand is still ramping up. Grey premiums are increasing. When all the people in the world who are buying all the hot Rolex models stop increasing in number, the waiting lists will still be long and the grey market will still be sky high. Production will not increase to fill the gap. At some point, demand may more closely match supply. I think we're talking many years, and possibly decades. But who knows? Right now, what you see is normal. It won't stay like this because nothing ever does. It could get better or worse. |
24 April 2019, 02:57 AM | #34 |
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But the number of people of who can afford a $20k watch right now is probably higher than it's ever been. Pull the plug on the economy and these prices will tank.
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24 April 2019, 03:03 AM | #35 |
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Till demand for Rolex SS model will be high and customer pay the premium price this will be the new normal.
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24 April 2019, 03:07 AM | #36 |
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I do not see availably coming back on Rolex models in high demand until the overall watch market for SS sports watches tanks which it will at some point. It is the only segment of the watch market with any life left in it and that is only because of the artificial lack of supply. Had Rolex not cut production in late summer of 2017, all the models would be available today at nice discounts. Rolex knew and saw that coming and changed the equation by cutting supply. An added short-term benefit they are selling far more TT and PM. a win to them and their ADs.
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24 April 2019, 03:12 AM | #37 |
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Its never been the case. Way too much money out their regardless of the economy. As long as the Rolex reputation is sought after, there will always be enough money to buy them. There is a lot of affluent with really big money that $20k is a night out.
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24 April 2019, 03:15 AM | #38 | |
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Quote:
But for those that say this is the new normal, to me, means that prices can never go back down. I believe that to be false. |
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24 April 2019, 03:17 AM | #39 |
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Rolex has learned from Patek model regarding exclusivity and super low supply for certain references and has only reaped rewards of doing so. No way they change anything going forward.
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24 April 2019, 03:18 AM | #40 | |
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Only thing I miss is the Asian economy angle. I think that is a what mainly drives demand, less supply in US and Europe is just a consequence. |
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24 April 2019, 03:20 AM | #41 | |
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24 April 2019, 03:24 AM | #42 |
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Because watches are not must haves, once people realize that money can be better spent on other things that can really improve life qualities
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24 April 2019, 03:25 AM | #43 | |
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Very solid input. Much better than "this is the market now" answers people are giving who dont want their watch values to ever go back down. |
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24 April 2019, 03:39 AM | #44 |
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When the next recession hits, most people will not be pursuing Rolex let alone grey Rolex with high mark ups. Secondary market will be flooded by SS sports models and maybe at first the prices will still be inflated... but wait a year or so, the prices will come down. Rolex can restrict production as much as they want, but there are literally millions of SS models in private hands and those will surface during economic downturn.
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24 April 2019, 03:58 AM | #45 |
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My take on this is Rolex has figured out a substantial way to increase sales and profits (PM's + Tudor) through manufactured exclusivity and barring an economic downturn, this practice will remain indefinitely.
Tell me one sane CEO that would reverse course on this model. |
24 April 2019, 04:05 AM | #46 |
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Seems like TRF is split between this is the new normal and one day will get back to normal. I guess we wait and see till whatever whenever happens. I will continue to enjoy looking at the time on my wrist and seeing the crown.
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24 April 2019, 04:05 AM | #47 |
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“It is different this time” has always been incorrect
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24 April 2019, 04:08 AM | #48 | |
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24 April 2019, 04:33 AM | #49 |
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The truth is nobody knows - there are so many factors which could affect things including Rolex’s future plans which are notoriously under wraps.
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24 April 2019, 04:37 AM | #50 |
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I don't know what normal is anymore.
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24 April 2019, 05:01 AM | #51 |
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Nobody knows. My thinking is that Rolex dialed down SS distribution/production as more people can afford TT and PM watches. Really I think the SS watches are too cheap compared to the other big hitters.
Better times PM sells, so might as well take advantage! It still amazes me that some SS Watches are the new status symbol! |
24 April 2019, 05:07 AM | #52 |
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The ONLY thing that will cause the Rolex market to falter, in the next decade or two, will be a global market recession.
Considering the S&P 500 is at 2,934.02 as of me writing this post, which is exactly 2 points above its all-time closing high, so it looks like we have a long way to go.
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24 April 2019, 05:08 AM | #53 | |
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24 April 2019, 05:10 AM | #54 |
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- What goes up, must come down
- The bubble always bursts about 3 years after all the experts say it is imminent - I always know the bubble is about to burst when a cabby has told me he just got into it To date I've not yet been exposed to the last two bullets about the price of Rolex watches cratering... in my mind it is at least 3 years out and could be much longer. |
24 April 2019, 05:18 AM | #55 |
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Rolex will not adjust pricing down regardless of economic climate. What will occur in a recession is that the grey market will price their product to where it will sell. That will probably be downward to near or below MSRP. To do this, they will have to buy product that has a cost below MSRP. In a slowdown, there may be AD's that discount, probably not to the levels of old. the used market will drop back to MSRP or below, with the exception of hard to get items. The levels of available product will be controlled by Rolex, thus the bulk of the available watches will depend on Rolex production. I don't expect Rolex to flood the market with watches in a downturn, I expect them to adjust production for the couple years of downturn that is typical in a recession. So MSRP and above is probably the new norm.
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24 April 2019, 05:25 AM | #56 |
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With a world population of 7.5 billion plus. There are more than enough people with gobs of cash to buy highly sought after luxury product, recession or not. Rolex knows how to play the game. If this were Game of Thrones, it would be between Rolex, Patek and AP for the iron throne.
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24 April 2019, 05:41 AM | #57 |
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I think its hard for the normal to come, but still hoping.
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24 April 2019, 06:02 AM | #58 |
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24 April 2019, 06:05 AM | #59 |
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24 April 2019, 06:05 AM | #60 |
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Central banks are destroying their currency by flooding markets. It might be far longer to the next crash depending on runs to wealth preservation.
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