What will happen IF.....?

[wchuteck]

For those who has vast experience in watch market, under what circumstances the price of the watch drops from its height? There are speculation factor in the price hike of some hot demand models, will there be any 'correction' in the price if it moves too high too fast?

[stash21]

combination of greater supply and/or reduced demand

[RolexJoe]

I’m new to the watch game but my suspicion is if they re-release a certain reference (BLNR with PCL oyster for example) the older ones will drop in price.

I’d also suspect them to drop in price should the economy tank again and the supply increases due to people unloading them.

[enjoythemusic]

Over supply, watch falls out of fashion, stock market crash...

Like many things, it boils down to CONfidence that someone else values it and will trade you for something else that has CONfidence in value.

[Kliminator]

If economy goes down, so does the prices / market for luxury goods. People with money will continue to buy but I feel that more folks would be more mindful

[Fat_ninja]

I stopped buying watches been debating tulips lately

[macrowatch]

If my memory is correct, the past generation 5 digit Daytonas reached equilibrium over 3 rate hikes and of course a lingering economic recession. (Also in a long stretch of dollar decline vs CHF)

[superpop]

These are mass produced metal fashion baubles, not Amazon stock. Rest assured that as soon as the coolness factor wears off they will drop like a prom dress on the big night. If your watch is an investment, you cannot afford the watch.

[hbombkid]

Originally Posted by RolexJoe

I’m new to the watch game but my suspicion is if they re-release a certain reference (BLNR with PCL oyster for example) the older ones will drop in price.

I’d also suspect them to drop in price should the economy tank again and the supply increases due to people unloading them.

Not always true especially the way the lack of a ability has been for 2 -4 years depending on model.

I also think even if the economy tanks impact won’t be that big. There will always be people that have money and can buy these items.

[wchuteck]

Rolex has been around for so many years now, why a sudden surge in demand to the extend that the price increase almost every month if not week.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I stopped buying watches been debating tulips lately

I can get you a really good deal on tulips.

A lot of monkeys lived near a village.

One day a merchant came to the village to buy these monkeys!

He announced that he will buy the monkeys @ $100 each.

The villagers thought that this man is mad.

They thought how can somebody buy stray monkeys at $100 each?

Still, some people caught some monkeys and gave it to this merchant and he gave $100 for each monkey.

This news spread like wildfire and people caught monkeys and sold it to the merchant.

After a few days, the merchant announced that he will buy monkeys @ 200 each.

The lazy villagers also ran around to catch the remaining monkeys!

They sold the remaining monkeys @ 200 each.

Then the merchant announced that he will buy monkeys @ 500 each!

The villagers start to lose sleep! ... They caught six or seven monkeys, which was all that was left and got 500 each.

The villagers were waiting anxiously for the next announcement.

Then the merchant announced that he is going home for a week. And when he returns, he will buy monkeys @ 1000 each!

He asked his employee to take care of the monkeys he bought. He was alone taking care of all the monkeys in a cage.

The merchant went home.

The villagers were very sad as there were no more monkeys left for them to sell it at $1000 each.

Then the employee told them that he will sell some monkeys @ 700 each secretly.

This news spread like fire. Since the merchant buys monkey @ 1000 each, there is a 300 profit for each monkey.

The next day, villagers made a queue near the monkey cage.

The employee sold all the monkeys at 700 each. The rich bought monkeys in big lots. The poor borrowed money from money lenders and also bought monkeys!

The villagers took care of their monkeys & waited for the merchant to return.

But nobody came! ... Then they ran to the employee...

But he has already left too !

The villagers then realised that they have bought the useless stray monkeys @ 700 each and unable to sell them!

[Moggo]

I like that


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[rlx123]

Originally Posted by superpop

These are mass produced metal fashion baubles, not Amazon stock. Rest assured that as soon as the coolness factor wears off they will drop like a prom dress on the big night. If your watch is an investment, you cannot afford the watch.

You are so right on your last sentence! I wish these so call “investors” should get out and invest in something they can afford like comic books!

[jaychief]

It wont happen any time soon.... times have changed and social media plays a massive part

[ZOOK]

Originally Posted by Etschell

I can get you a really good deal on tulips.

A lot of monkeys lived near a village.

One day a merchant came to the village to buy these monkeys!

......


The villagers then realised that they have bought the useless stray monkeys @ 700 each and unable to sell them!

The villagers headed to other villages to pass on their new found knowledge. Capitalism at it's finest.

[Brich436]

Sample of one here - and I know a lot of members have been in the game longer (way longer) than me here but here is my memory of pricing for the Submariner:

2003 - $3,950
2010 - $6,000
2011- $7,250 (cermanic model)
2019 - $8,550

If you go back further it's even more dramatic. I think it's a safe bet that they will cost more in the future but how MUCH more is the question. Rolex pricing over the past 30-40 years has far outpaced inflation.

Totally agree with prior comments that watches are NOT investments. I buy them to wear and enjoy them.

[jimcameron]

Epilog: The Monkeys were in on the deal, and repeatedly worked this scam with the Merchant.

After the Monkey's had all made quite a sizable fortune, the Merchant asked the Monkeys if they would be interested in buying Rolex watches at Grey market prices.

The monkeys all laughed and said to the Merchant, "we're smarter than we look".

[Wcdhtwn]

It is supply and demand. Nothing simpler or more complicated.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by wchuteck

under what circumstances the price of the watch drops from its height?

When fewer people want to buy than the available supply.

[Calatrava r]

I do not see Rolex sales as economy sensitive as so many think. The wealthy always seem to have money no matter what the economic conditions and will buy what they want. A great economy benefits the middle class most and these are the folks who cannot get the watches now.

[Brew]

What will happen? I'll probably put a watch on and go to work.

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by superpop

These are mass produced metal fashion baubles, not Amazon stock. Rest assured that as soon as the coolness factor wears off they will drop like a prom dress on the big night. If your watch is an investment, you cannot afford the watch.

+1 and thank you


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[Boaters]

Watching and waiting no pun intended..

[droptopman]

Some "investors" will take a bath. Some of the resellers will as well. Most of them are so in tune with the market they will move quick though. Nothing will change until supply and demand change. Do not see supply changing much, so when something else becomes the thing everyone has to have and demand declines so will aftermarket prices.

[RyanJ]

Some of you have no idea the money that is made re-selling watches, especially right now. You go ahead and keep thinking it is just a few pennies.. There is always risk but that is calculated in their prices.

Some luxury brands expect the secondary market to be 10-20 times the new watch market. Several luxury brands have created subsidiaries to sell and buy pre-owned watches.

Kind of fascinating.

[patrickjb]

Love bitcoin threads

[18●20●22●▼●2●4●6]

Very very true... every down-turn of the past, the first thing people sell are those unnecessary luxury accessories.

I bet there are healthy number of those who prefers Rolex today just because of how fast they "unload"... and in some countries with less stable currency, Rolex is perhaps seen as gold.

Originally Posted by Kliminator

If economy goes down, so does the prices / market for luxury goods. People with money will continue to buy but I feel that more folks would be more mindful

[schoolboy]

If they release a GMT coke with brushed oyster bracelet, I think the BLRO and BLNR with jubilee might be less sought after

Same thing if they put a brushed oyster on either of those two bezel colors

[Harry-57]

I think a Coke in brushed steel on an Oyster bracelet would cause a stampede, possibly like nothing before. I can see 2 - 3 X MSRP, unless Rolex floods the market. Which they won't. I expect it will come out in PM first.

[GBD]

The economy has to falter at some point, and that will soften things up. Not sure if prices will come back down to retail, but they will fall as demand falls.

Longer term, who knows? In 30 years mechanical watches might be considered useless junk. Or, something debilitating could happen to Rolex the company or something could tarnish the company causing it to fall out of favor with the masses.

The fluctuating nature of the economy, technology, and social media mean there's really no long-term steady state. All things must change.