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21 August 2019, 11:04 AM | #151 |
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21 August 2019, 05:57 PM | #152 |
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Will look for the Oyster, thanks. Jubilee dial is not my preferred choice.
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21 August 2019, 07:05 PM | #153 |
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Where are we finding BLNRs at $12k? I am assuming that's just watch only? They are consistently going above $13.5k for decent examples where I see. Would love to hear!
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21 August 2019, 07:11 PM | #154 | |
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Prices Dropping Hard??
Quote:
I haven’t seen one for less than $15.5k recently and I’ve been watching that and the BLRO market...a new BLRO is steady at $18.5-19k. |
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21 August 2019, 07:25 PM | #155 |
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Prices are not dropping.
When they drop... we will know they are dropping and in the game of musical chairs being played by a few SS models, they will almost and unbeliveably become “toxic”. ie in the ensuing deflation, people will wait and wait to get an even better bargain. https://browse.startpage.com/do/show...9335&t=default |
21 August 2019, 07:53 PM | #156 |
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Its all smoke and mirrors really.
The mistake is that the prices advertised are assumed to be the prices the watches are sold for, one desperate and needy buyer who pays $20k for a $9k MSRP SS Rolex does not set the market price for that model globally. I think (in my humble opinion) we are starting to see watches advertised via greys for what they actually sell for, in which case, the price of sale has not dropped .... its just that the greys have stopped advertising them at those previously head shaking prices.
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21 August 2019, 08:18 PM | #157 | |
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Quote:
Before they were advertising a BLNR for $18k and selling probably for $15-16k. Now they are advertising for $16k and probably selling for $14-15k. This all starts the momentum because more and more people start holding off buying. Its the natural way it works. And as the gap between gray and msrp closes the number of flippers reduce exponentially. Therefore buying audience is drastically reduced. There is too much risk for little or no reward for the flippers once the gap narrows closer to msrp until all the flippers are gone because there is no money to be made anymore. |
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21 August 2019, 08:35 PM | #158 | |
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Quote:
Well explained. I think "the momentum" has already started. |
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21 August 2019, 08:37 PM | #159 |
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21 August 2019, 08:40 PM | #160 |
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21 August 2019, 08:44 PM | #161 | |
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Quote:
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21 August 2019, 08:46 PM | #162 | |
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Real Name: Ken
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Quote:
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SPEM SUCCESSUS ALIT |
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21 August 2019, 08:52 PM | #163 |
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21 August 2019, 08:59 PM | #164 |
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F*** the Flippers ... ruining everyone enjoyment for the hobby
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21 August 2019, 10:25 PM | #165 |
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I don’t believe the last 60 days of the market act as a good enough sample size to project anything to come.
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21 August 2019, 11:10 PM | #166 |
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This guy is great
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22 August 2019, 05:46 AM | #167 |
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22 August 2019, 07:15 AM | #168 | |
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Quote:
Romans video above is superb all of his bids are . He tells it like it is. He is himself a massive gray watch dealers I he has nothing to hide |
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22 August 2019, 10:34 AM | #169 |
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So many sales from new guys these days with very little feedback or posts. Many bumps as well and still for sale. Maybe it is the beginning of the end - a lot of guys want to get out of the game?
Similar trends in asian forums and blogs. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=692817 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693700 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693508 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=692035 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=685936 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693694 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693692 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=691300 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693672 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693436 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=686573 |
22 August 2019, 10:42 AM | #170 |
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22 August 2019, 10:43 AM | #171 |
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It’s that way. If you desire a pretty common reference, your guy could source 2-3 different units no problem. Once supply dries up though, price begins to creep up and you can either pull the trigger or walk away. Happened to me when I was sourcing an Aquanaut from greys. If it takes you a few hours to decide, that watch is gone.
That time I didn’t like the environment either so I walked away. Then the market skyrocketed and it is now out of my reach. The trade is an entire ecosystem so we cannot attribute fault towards a particular entity |
22 August 2019, 11:56 AM | #172 |
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Thought experiment;
100 people want blnrs They all pay 20k from greys 2 years from now everyone who wants a blnr has one 10 show up in dealer shelves and sit for two weeks at msrp What is the market price of the blnr at that point when you can buy one at msrp? |
22 August 2019, 12:00 PM | #173 |
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A used BLNR should be about 1500$ under MSRP just like most things have been for decades....now an AD would prefer a used so they can sell over retail...crazy times but yes prices are dropping very gradually
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22 August 2019, 12:08 PM | #174 | |
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Quote:
That would accelerate the reset I think. Too bad I can’t run a business 🙁 |
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22 August 2019, 01:20 PM | #175 |
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I am thinking out loud here so please bear with me.
The video by the Luxury Bazaar guy was really eye opening. Is there any chance that part of what is driving this is “clicks”? By that I mean, are grey dealers maybe over estimating the demand/interest in these watches because so many of us (and maybe their fellow dealers) are surfing sites and checking prices so it appears there is more demand than there really is? My frame of reference for this is that my wife is a realtor and she is always checking how many “views” her properties have had. Obviously the more views, the better the chance one of them actually reaches out to schedule a showing (by definition, now showing = no sale). It’s probably just the IPA(s) talking but I do wonder if the entire ecosystem that has developed is creating a false sense of actual honest to god demand. In the end, don’t all these watches have to end up on someone’s wrist eventually? |
22 August 2019, 01:50 PM | #176 |
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It's akin to Japan bonds, their central bank now owns about 75% of the debt issuance. In other words, artificially control demand to keep the illusion alive that all is well while containing pricing.
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__________________ “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'Wow! What a Ride!'” -- Hunter S. Thompson Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
22 August 2019, 02:29 PM | #177 | |
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Quote:
There must be some truth to the theory that the Pepsi bezel is much harder to produce... |
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22 August 2019, 04:03 PM | #178 |
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22 August 2019, 04:30 PM | #179 |
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Hard to believe.
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22 August 2019, 04:37 PM | #180 |
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Asia is taking a hit. Rest of the world isn't.
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