Vintage Rolexes now surpass vintage Patek complications in value

[0xalate]

I was following the results from the Phillips NY Racing Pulse Auction today and take a look at this story by @rolexpassionreport:


Is it fair to say this is one of many signs of Patek being on the downtrend...Thoughts? I think vintage Pateks are very undervalued, making them a good deal if one wants to add to their collection today. I love both brands, but I personally think Thierry’s Patek is missing some of his dad’s magic.


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[GeraldGentaFan]

I would be cautious with that conclusion. Vintage watches and their value are strongly influenced by the quality of the individual watch. Here we compare a great 5517 with rather weak examples of Patek. A great quality first or second series 2499 would easily fetch USD1-2m.

[RX0]

Why is it so much emphasize in re-sale value? Is it even fair to compare the 2 brands based on auction result? The answer is No. Patek is in a new era under Thierry Stern. Look at the Grand Complication 5320 and Nautilus 5740. Both models bring in new life and excitement to the perpetual calendar sector. 5320 is a modern interpretation of traditional perpetual calendar and the 5740 is the new image of perpetual calendar in the sport segment. Another great example of Patek in Thierry’s era is the 5212, a bigger case with an artistic dial that resemble a diary with that weekly display. Or, look at the recent 6301P, another pinnacle accomplishment in terms of innovation under Thierry’s era. The magic of any timepiece or anything is not about money or re-sale value. The magic is the bond between the owner and the timepiece. If re-sale value is the focus, go to stock market.

[Bearxj86]

A rising tide lifts all boats

[Ichiran]

Not surprised at all with the result of this MilSub. It is a rare watch today, was issued by the British military and this piece is unpolished.

[Emery]

If you're familiar with milsubs, you'd know it's apples vs oranges.

[cascavel]

Subs are relatively easy to understand; there is one case, two materials, date or no date. It's all in the dial and the bezel. Armed with a few reference books and a couple of Million $ anyone can become an "advanced collector". Add to that the allure of "Bond", "Vietnam", "Comex", "Che" etc. and grown men swoon. Pateks are more nuanced and require an understanding of watch movements, complications, case materials and too many other variables to name, thereby driving off all but the dedicated.

[Kittayos]

Vintage Rolex always has its glory.

For the new era, I think most modern Patek grand complication watches nowadays can barely retain their values over time. 30 - 50% discount is expected/calculated if one wants to buy any.

5270p, 5370p, 5204, 5320, 5372, 6102...etc

Great looking timepieces but all of them suffer a lot in the real world. Even minute repeaters, only a few survive.

[scurfa]

Maybe the Patek museum isn’t buying and the Rolex museum is.

[2nastie]

I would caution auction prices as we don't exactly know the atmosphere during the bid or between the bidders.

However, I think in general all vintage Rolex is on the rise in comparison to vintage Pateks. Simply put, Rolex is more popular right now. However, imo I won't necessary say it justifies paying that price.

The higher you rise the greater you fall. I think Patek has been most consistent with their following and prices.

[RoscoPico]

seems like simple economics/marketing.
rolex has been bridging the gap somehow from awesome tool watch, to high end luxury watch.
i've learned that prices of watches vis a vis demand vis a vis quality are not all commensurate, rather a reflection of supply and demand

[aj_tucker]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Subs are relatively easy to understand; there is one case, two materials, date or no date. It's all in the dial and the bezel. Armed with a few reference books and a couple of Million $ anyone can become an "advanced collector". Add to that the allure of "Bond", "Vietnam", "Comex", "Che" etc. and grown men swoon. Pateks are more nuanced and require an understanding of watch movements, complications, case materials and too many other variables to name, thereby driving off all but the dedicated.

Do you recommend any books of which one can educate himself?

[0xalate]

Originally Posted by aj_tucker

Do you recommend any books of which one can educate himself?

There’s a book called The Vintage Rolex Field Guide that serves as a reference to some of these nuances.

But I think the best (and free) resource for learning this is rolexpassionreport.com


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[enjoythemusic]

It seems to me that Patek is now a second-tier manufacturer considering the many advancements and very high quality a plethora of other mechanical timpeiece manufacturers now offer. By comparison, also add in what is now considered a required 5 to 8 year warranty and shorter service times as provided by many high-end manufacturers....

Let's face it, PP can live off their 'fabled past' for only so long and the world has changed around them. Goodness knows we all LOL big time when we read "rare and important" descriptions by self-promoting auction houses to get the most bang from your bidding. i just hope the workers, who deserve a lot of recognition, are happy working in PP's new manufacturing plant.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Kittayos

Vintage Rolex always has its glory.

For the new era, I think most modern Patek grand complication watches nowadays can barely retain their values over time. 30 - 50% discount is expected/calculated if one wants to buy any.

5270p, 5370p, 5204, 5320, 5372, 6102...etc

Great looking timepieces but all of them suffer a lot in the real world. Even minute repeaters, only a few survive.

You are quite right.
It's a real shame actually. I sincerely think Thierry has overproduced these watches and he's set the prices incredibly high. Too high.

It would be better for Patek's brand for the price to be set such that there is a slight increase in value in the grey and aftermarket. Technically this means the brand is giving profit away to others which it could earn itself - Patek already do this with their sports models... think of the Nautil..... zzzzzzz... :yawn:

This also necessitates very careful monitoring of production volumes - keeping them low which he's also not doing.

Anyway... Thierry has decided he wants to take it all of that aftermarket margin and more, and the result is severe depreciation which didn't happen before.

A pity really.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by RX0

Why is it so much emphasize in re-sale value? Is it even fair to compare the 2 brands based on auction result? The answer is No. Patek is in a new era under Thierry Stern. Look at the Grand Complication 5320 and Nautilus 5740. Both models bring in new life and excitement to the perpetual calendar sector. 5320 is a modern interpretation of traditional perpetual calendar and the 5740 is the new image of perpetual calendar in the sport segment. Another great example of Patek in Thierry’s era is the 5212, a bigger case with an artistic dial that resemble a diary with that weekly display. Or, look at the recent 6301P, another pinnacle accomplishment in terms of innovation under Thierry’s era. The magic of any timepiece or anything is not about money or re-sale value. The magic is the bond between the owner and the timepiece. If re-sale value is the focus, go to stock market.

AP is destroying Patek in the high end sport segment specifically with regards to perpetual calendars which they have been doing for decades before Patek showed up.

I generally agree with your point but Patek didn’t set any bars for sports PC.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

You are quite right.
It's a real shame actually. I sincerely think Thierry has overproduced these watches and he's set the prices incredibly high. Too high.

It would be better for Patek's brand for the price to be set such that there is a slight increase in value in the grey and aftermarket. Technically this means the brand is giving profit away to others which it could earn itself - Patek already do this with their sports models... think of the Nautil..... zzzzzzz... :yawn:

This also necessitates very careful monitoring of production volumes - keeping them low which he's also not doing.

Anyway... Thierry has decided he wants to take it all of that aftermarket margin and more, and the result is severe depreciation which didn't happen before.

A pity really.

Don't see it this way at all.
Forget sports of course (which is due for a massive reset), but the high end pieces are still retaining plenty of value and well above the industry norm. I can't speak for other countries but in the UK a piece such as the 5270P when introduced was £143k, it is now on the secondary for £118k (cheapest on c24) - this simply equates to the 20% vat charged on the new piece and reclaimed by many. History also shows us prices on such pieces climb when pieces are discontinued - 5170P for example.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Don't see it this way at all.
Forget sports of course (which is due for a massive reset), but the high end pieces are still retaining plenty of value and well above the industry norm. I can't speak for other countries but in the UK a piece such as the 5270P when introduced was £143k, it is now on the secondary for £118k (cheapest on c24) - this simply equates to the 20% vat charged on the new piece and reclaimed by many. History also shows us prices on such pieces climb when pieces are discontinued - 5170P for example.

Russell - sure they do retain some value. But I frankly expect better given the previous performance of Patek GC's.
Your 5370p (which is the finest Patek they've made since the 5970) should be a major premium watch. No doubt in my mind. But it's not because he's made too many and the list price was extreme.

5720p - finally they got the dial right on their PCC. And salmon dial too. Should be a premium watch like 5970p. Again, it's over produced.

Same again for 5204 which is a much more wearable watch than the 5004 (which has suddenly gone mad in the market)

Same again for the minute repeaters.

There's too many being churned out and the opening list prices have found resistance, for the first time, even with die-hard collectors.

The 5070j was £18k in 2000.
The 5170j was £52k in 2010.

That's just ridiculous! The former has tripled in value and the latter has lost 20% (although admittedly the latter one isn't as aesthetically appreciated).

Too many. Too expensive.
TBH, Thierry could remedy just one of those ills and support collectors spending BIG on his watches which in turn would support his Brand and propel sales, but he's chosen to do none of that. He's burnt collectors and that's bad news in the long term...

Just my 2p.

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by aj_tucker

Do you recommend any books of which one can educate himself?

Check out Mondani books about vintage Rolex and Patek


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[Bensrolex]

Uh, I don't see signs pointing to Patek being on a downtrend ;)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...20300%20people.

[enjoythemusic]

Yes Bensrolex, if you want the old tried and true PP when they make great pieces, then you need to get their ultra-complicated models. The mainstream stuff is their low to mid-tier depending on complications. Wonder what warranty comes with these ultra-complications, i assume lifetime. Panerai is doing a 70-year warranty on their ~$20k LE models.