There is no Rolex Shortage

[jonnyz1245]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Why let facts get in the way of a good psychotic break?

[NMPP]

Originally Posted by fleabag

Depending on which model


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He didn't say they climb

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

APs and PPs are great alternatives until the market settles down. Explore other brands, it could do you good.

I went through several brands and phases in my collecting history and it took me a long time to realize that I only like Rolex watches. As for exploring AP or PP, if I found a single one of their offerings attractive it would be a good start. But I don't.

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

For years all rolexes were readily available at ADs (and still are but with greys), i am not sure on which planet you live.

The planet of AD's in big cities who have had 2018-level SS shortages since 2010. I didn't trust the greys back then, tried to do it through an AD like I was supposed to, even was on a waiting list for the 500C for a year until I realized I was being played. Trusted the grey market since then on 3 great SS Rolexes and have no intention of looking back. Greys have been very good to me and I feel obligated to keep giving them my business.

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

Blame yourself for not buying the references YOU DIDN'T KNOW WOULD BECOME RARE back in the day.

I don't know what this means as I am not a speculator and I do not care what my collection is worth as I have no intention of ever selling them. Back in the day all I wanted was a Daytona and a Submariner and neither was available when stopping by one of the numerous AD's I frequented back then. I have no patience for waiting or callbacks. I was in a shop, I had the money, they didn't have a watch.

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

There's no natural selection, all watches are available, it all depends whether you allow yourself to be a sheep or not.

It does matter how much others pay for the watches that are mass produced because it is preventing non-sheep people from buying a specific watch from Rolex.

Being "a sheep" is meant to imply that we're naive and stupid and easily manipulated, yes? Well, I find that the people who have $18K to drop on a watch without batting an eye are pretty sharp and smart and intelligent, turns out you need those traits to have the $18K to begin with.

I like your terminology of "sheep people" and "non-sheep people". It's a nicer way of saying "rich people" and "bargain hunters" which is really what we're talking about here, so let's use your terms.

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

MSRP is a made-up number based on the relative production cost of the item. It typically costs Rolex 60% of the MSRP to produce a watch, FYI. You are already paying a big premium when paying MSRP. Rolex does not make hard-to-find items, they make mass produced items.

Jean, the bottom line is that in November 2018 I decided I wanted a Pepsi GMT and there were none to be found at any of the AD's in my region. But my friendly neighborhood grey dealer had one, treated me with respect, and took my money which it turns out was all I really wanted to begin with. So I gave him the cash and he gave me the watch.

So this whole notion of production costs, markup, MSRP's, premiums, none of this matters. To get a BLRO I had to pay fair market value. So I did. And I'm glad I did. Lots of us who shop the grey trusted sellers feel the same. You know, the Sheep People.

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

Consumers have not spoken, consumers are going to other brands and refusing to pay absurd amount of moneys to greys, which is why so many SS watches are sitting in grey's shops. It's only a matter of time before all goes back to normal.

Who knows how many SS watches are sitting in grey's shops? You know that Chrono24, Recon, and smaller grey sites are littered with double listings and duplicate storefronts and are a poor barometer, right?

As for consumers going to other brands and boycotting Rolex, good! Keeps the grey prices no greater than 100% over MSRP and means there are more for us to get our greedy fuzzy little hoofs on.

[teck21]

I think there's a much simpler explanation as to why SS models are in such short supply now compared to decades ago.

The mass affluent as a segment did not exist as a market force until fairly recently. It was affluent, or the not affluent. There weren't a whole bunch of people then, even in their 40s who could comfortably afford a basic model.

But the changing nature of employment over the past 20 years or less created a whole new class who could comfortably afford the MSRP of most SS sports models. But absolutely not the PM models. And I think most would agree that that is where the real shortage is?

I don't think Rolex anticipated this either, and are artificially holding back supply or whatever. The new scarcity (least that's what I've heard and read from people who say they could buy any model they wanted to 30 years ago from any AD) is arose from new employment trends which I'm sure very few actually saw coming.

And its helping to fuel the prestige of owning a Rolex. Now more than at any point in human history. Along with mass media, social media and the fact that now more and more people know someone who owns one or more Rolexes.

Indeed, things are never going back to the way they were 10-15 years ago when one could walk into any AD and buy anything one wanted.

That said, it does not appear that grey market Rolexes can even be considered a bubble considering how low their prices are relative to their 'true' value (MSRP). But buoyant economic conditions have certainly helped push them up somewhat.

But a crash, like a housing market/stock market/bitcoin style correction? Hardly plausible. Rolex owners tend to be more considered in their purchasing and selling actions compared to purely speculative asset classes, primarily because most actually don't consider their watches to be speculative instruments.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by jonnyz1245

So far he has provided no facts to back up anything he says. He just spews numbers with no basis in fact and then when someone calls him on it, he ignores it and spews forth new fake news.

1. It's Rolex. No one has any factual numbers as they don't release any.

2. It's not fake news, it's an educated guess for the purposes of illustrating a point. There are more AD's than there are trusted greys, the estimate I put on that doesn't matter. Earlier you said there were 50 grey dealers on this site and I knew what your point was, I didn't need you to 'prove' your number, I didn't call it 'fake news'.

3. I'm interested in dialog, not nitpicking. We're not experts here and this is a thread on supply chain theories, not sure why it needs to be so serious. Let's keep it light and have some fun guessing what Rolex is up to. That is the point of these 'shortage' threads, after all.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

There is no SS shortage, these watches are mass produced and available everywhere since 2010.

I think this is a very odd point of view which most people will disagree with.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I think this is a very odd point of view which most people will disagree with.

What about that statement do you disagree with? There is no shortage of SS Sport models, you can get any one of them delivered to you in one day. It might be rare to find one in an AD but that doesn’t make them rare pieces.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by 42itus

What about that statement do you disagree with? There is no shortage of SS Sport models, you can get any one of them delivered to you in one day. It might be rare to find one in an AD but that doesn’t make them rare pieces.

"Available everywhere". In Tesco? On Amazon? In Rolex ADs? In Starbucks? Hanging from trees?
I find the use of the word "everywhere" to be misleading and odd given that Rolex ADs themselves don't have them. The few hundred that are available worldwide at hugely inflated prices are available at a small number of specialist grey watch dealers. That is far from "everywhere".

[42itus]

Originally Posted by Uggi

"Available everywhere". In Tesco? On Amazon? In Rolex ADs? In Starbucks? Hanging from trees?
I find the use of the word "everywhere" to be misleading and odd given that Rolex ADs themselves don't have them. The few hundred that are available worldwide at hugely inflated prices are available at a small number of specialist grey watch dealers. That is far from "everywhere".

I get what you’re saying and I don’t want to get into semantics. It’s just that I agree with the original post, that these are mass produced items and by “available everywhere” I took that to mean not rare. My friend recently went to HK and he saw a grey that had 10 white 116500 in his case. And this grey boasted that he has dozens of each of the hot models. And this is one grey on one street in one city if you get what I’m trying to say. So yeah, pretty much available everywhere except ADs.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Uggi

a) Sell everything I could to grey buyers who'd take products off me in bulk at higher overall margins
b) Sell other stock only to selected customers who regularly spent £100k+ per annum in my shop
c) Tell every other peasant coming in off the street there was nothing for sale

"a)" is super popular. Only way to make it run around.