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Old 5 October 2022, 02:26 PM   #1
Daveofedm
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Grey Market Price Dropping?????

Hello All,

Do you all think prices will drop next year do to the global recession? My concern will be be why buy now.
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Old 5 October 2022, 02:46 PM   #2
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I've just taken a look at DavidSW's site after not looking for a few weeks.

I realise he's not the cheapest but boy, prices have dropped. BLNRO and Daytona SS.

IMO prices will continue downwards.
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Old 5 October 2022, 03:28 PM   #3
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Prices will be back to retail soon. They are getting closer every day. Many grays got caught holding a bag full of watches they can't move any longer at the inflated prices.

I was talking to a gentleman the other day who collected mostly the newer watches. He has now moved on from the newer models to the vintage and neo vintage examples - especially those in superior condition. His comment that , besides being in safe assets now, in the case of watches, he is leaning toward high quality vintage pieces which are much more finite in quantity than newer models. I can't say that I blame him and would agree.
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Old 5 October 2022, 03:31 PM   #4
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It's happening.
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Old 5 October 2022, 03:40 PM   #5
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In the UK prices flattened a bit during September, but now appear to have resumed their gentle trend downwards.

Certain models, such as the DJ41, appear to now only command a nominal premium over retail.

A sub, however, still goes for 1.5x.

My uneducated guess is that there will be a very limited stock available in some ADs by Jan 23.

This is not financial advice, usual caveats apply, blah..
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Old 5 October 2022, 07:30 PM   #6
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Prices will be back to retail soon. They are getting closer every day. Many grays got caught holding a bag full of watches they can't move any longer at the inflated prices.

I was talking to a gentleman the other day who collected mostly the newer watches. He has now moved on from the newer models to the vintage and neo vintage examples - especially those in superior condition. His comment that , besides being in safe assets now, in the case of watches, he is leaning toward high quality vintage pieces which are much more finite in quantity than newer models. I can't say that I blame him and would agree.
This has probably been discussed ad nauseam, but how is this affecting the grey market dealers? I’d image it’s hurting the small to medium sized grey dealers something fierce, especially the ones that paid jacked up prices for timepieces. Are they shutting their doors?

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It's happening.
It sure is.
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Old 5 October 2022, 08:47 PM   #7
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It's going slowly. These guys gleefully increased prices in the crazy run up in Q1 this year, but are damn shy lowering the price back down.
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Old 6 October 2022, 12:58 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by springer View Post
Prices will be back to retail soon. They are getting closer every day. Many grays got caught holding a bag full of watches they can't move any longer at the inflated prices.

I was talking to a gentleman the other day who collected mostly the newer watches. He has now moved on from the newer models to the vintage and neo vintage examples - especially those in superior condition. His comment that , besides being in safe assets now, in the case of watches, he is leaning toward high quality vintage pieces which are much more finite in quantity than newer models. I can't say that I blame him and would agree.
While I generally hate the idea of watches as an asset class, if one were to "invest" in watches, it really should be limited to out of production models. Imagining that demand will always exceed supply for a mass produced item (even if "only" 40k watches/yr for some manufacturers) is absurd. Now that the easy/free money is quickly drying up demand will drop.

Unless the manufacturers decide to reduce production, availability will increase. And, since the manufacturers weren't making the 100%+++ markups above MSRP that the resellers were, they have zero incentive to reduce production, as their profits will be unchanged until the Boutiques & AD's have to reduce prices to get them to sell.

I'm not the smartest guy, so I could be wrong, but all the people claiming that this is "just a blip" and prices will skyrocket right back up probably aren't the smartest either.
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Old 6 October 2022, 01:56 PM   #9
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its happening, slowly but surely.
Feels like the big greys are in a conserted effort to hold prices?
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:00 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Daveofedm View Post
Hello All,

Do you all think prices will drop next year do to the global recession? My concern will be be why buy now.
Well that is the problem with the situation we are in.

Are you asking if you should buy a watch? Or are you waiting for better prices because you don't really want a watch, just a deal?

For the first time in more than 20 years of collecting watches, I have a sizeable amount of cash set aside and cannot find anything I want to buy. If I could find something I wanted I would buy it today.

It is sad and my enjoyment of the hobby is nearly gone. More than once I have thought about selling most of my watches and just moving on.
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:18 AM   #11
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Well that is the problem with the situation we are in.

Are you asking if you should buy a watch? Or are you waiting for better prices because you don't really want a watch, just a deal?

For the first time in more than 20 years of collecting watches, I have a sizeable amount of cash set aside and cannot find anything I want to buy. If I could find something I wanted I would buy it today.

It is sad and my enjoyment of the hobby is nearly gone. More than once I have thought about selling most of my watches and just moving on.
Judging by your signature, your collection is astonishing…I would love to see all those peculiar pieces when I open MY watch box! Congratulations!
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:41 AM   #12
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Judging by your signature, your collection is astonishing…I would love to see all those peculiar pieces when I open MY watch box! Congratulations!
Thank you but this is at the tail end of a long journey and I am tired
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Old 9 October 2022, 04:30 AM   #13
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Thank you but this is at the tail end of a long journey and I am tired
No shame or regret in moving on. The second the hobby becomes more of a chore than a source of enjoyment, cut it off. Why spend your precious time and money on an expensive extracurricular if it’s not adding to your life?

I know this sounds like I’m stating the obvious, but posts by some members makes me think that this view isn’t as common as one would think.
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Old 9 October 2022, 05:52 AM   #14
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The question is do you want it now or is it not a rush?

Having spent the last few weeks viewing Moda watch group I can see prices dropping in real time. The PM pieces are dropping to retail. There are so many Daytona Panda and GMT Pepsi for sale. There are auctions where you can see max prices people pay dropping. So many people bought to flip and now this business is over. So I would say, whatever you are looking for, decide if you NEED it now, or if you can wait for an AD. In a year it will look even more grim, I think we'll see after April tax season where things are.
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Old 9 October 2022, 06:09 AM   #15
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The question is do you want it now or is it not a rush?

Having spent the last few weeks viewing Moda watch group I can see prices dropping in real time. The PM pieces are dropping to retail. There are so many Daytona Panda and GMT Pepsi for sale. There are auctions where you can see max prices people pay dropping. So many people bought to flip and now this business is over. So I would say, whatever you are looking for, decide if you NEED it now, or if you can wait for an AD. In a year it will look even more grim, I think we'll see after April tax season where things are.
Another huge factor being overlooked


All these backpack flippers for watches, shoes, everything. Will for the first time in their life, get IRS forms sent. I’m curious as to how this plays out for guys who kept zero records and are being told to pay tax on the net amount, not their profit. We’re talking potential thousands of dollars in mistakes here for somebody who might have an annual income of $50k-$100k. Big stuff actually
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Old 9 October 2022, 06:56 AM   #16
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Many dealers sell on consignment and won’t take the loss. Those that paid premium prices for the overhyped newer models to build inventory will take a hit. Vintage Rolex is a different product market.
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Old 9 October 2022, 01:22 PM   #17
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Another huge factor being overlooked


All these backpack flippers for watches, shoes, everything. Will for the first time in their life, get IRS forms sent. I’m curious as to how this plays out for guys who kept zero records and are being told to pay tax on the net amount, not their profit. We’re talking potential thousands of dollars in mistakes here for somebody who might have an annual income of $50k-$100k. Big stuff actually
So I was thinking more along the lines of people getting bonuses or conversely realizing they aren't getting tax money back, but yes - these guys will maybe take losses on their depreciated merch.
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Old 9 October 2022, 01:35 PM   #18
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So I was thinking more along the lines of people getting bonuses or conversely realizing they aren't getting tax money back, but yes - these guys will maybe take losses on their depreciated merch.
that's not what I'm referring to. I'm referring to the new IRS rules where people who flipped and didn't report never needed to pay taxes. All payment processors are reporting transactions this year.
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Old 9 October 2022, 01:51 PM   #19
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that's not what I'm referring to. I'm referring to the new IRS rules where people who flipped and didn't report never needed to pay taxes. All payment processors are reporting transactions this year.
Yep. Recently, I've seen a few dealers state they will only accept crypto pegged to the USD. Roaches scattering when the lights come on.
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Old 9 October 2022, 09:50 PM   #20
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that's not what I'm referring to. I'm referring to the new IRS rules where people who flipped and didn't report never needed to pay taxes. All payment processors are reporting transactions this year.

Weren’t wires over 10k always reported to begin with? That was my understanding.
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Old 9 October 2022, 10:01 PM   #21
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Weren’t wires over 10k always reported to begin with? That was my understanding.
They certainly are here
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Old 9 October 2022, 10:54 PM   #22
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Prices will be back to retail soon. They are getting closer every day. Many grays got caught holding a bag full of watches they can't move any longer at the inflated prices.

I was talking to a gentleman the other day who collected mostly the newer watches. He has now moved on from the newer models to the vintage and neo vintage examples - especially those in superior condition. His comment that , besides being in safe assets now, in the case of watches, he is leaning toward high quality vintage pieces which are much more finite in quantity than newer models. I can't say that I blame him and would agree.
Agree. Great examples of vintage and neo vintage are not taking the hit current and almost current references are taking. But then, they also did not see the massive bubble hike. And as you said, every year, they get harder to come by. Not because of hype or imaginary lists, but because of attrition and finite supply. There may be a ton of 5513's out there, but how many in great shape? And next year there will be less.
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Old 10 October 2022, 12:07 AM   #23
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[QUOTE=Andy0331;12409354]While I generally hate the idea of watches as an asset class, if one were to "invest" in watches, it really should be limited to out of production models. Imagining that demand will always exceed supply for a mass produced item (even if "only" 40k watches/yr for some manufacturers) is absurd. Now that the easy/free money is quickly drying up demand will drop.

Unless the manufacturers decide to reduce production, availability will increase. And, since the manufacturers weren't making the 100%+++ markups above MSRP that the resellers were, they have zero incentive to reduce production, as their profits will be unchanged until the Boutiques & AD's have to reduce prices to get them to sell.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Based on my experience, vintage watches have done quite well as investments - at least the past 20 years or so - some guys just missed the boat on these fine investments. Having some nice vintage watches in a "portfolio" was a wise investment.
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Old 5 January 2023, 08:24 PM   #24
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Black ceramic daytona on Chrono24 now dropped under £20k let’s see how far it can go.
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Old 6 January 2023, 02:49 AM   #25
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that's not what I'm referring to. I'm referring to the new IRS rules where people who flipped and didn't report never needed to pay taxes. All payment processors are reporting transactions this year.
DMASH!!! Glad to see you posting! You have been missed on the other threads!
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Old 6 January 2023, 02:58 AM   #26
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DMASH!!! Glad to see you posting! You have been missed on the other threads!
His last post was Nov. 23… wish he’d rejoin the community! Really is a shame if he got banned.
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Old 6 January 2023, 04:04 AM   #27
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Black ceramic daytona on Chrono24 now dropped under £20k let’s see how far it can go.
Let’s say it drops to $19-20K USD, is it advisable to buy or wait a bit more and see? At that price it’s just about $3K above MSRP+tax.
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Old 6 January 2023, 04:37 AM   #28
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Let’s say it drops to $19-20K USD, is it advisable to buy or wait a bit more and see? At that price it’s just about $3K above MSRP+tax.
Wait. We are in the oven now and its only begun to start warming up.

My AD took serious care of me in 2022. They offered me a new hard to get piece recently and I turned them down. I plan to turn them down all of 2023. I know I'm not the only one with some money who plans on doing this.
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Old 6 January 2023, 04:55 AM   #29
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His last post was Nov. 23… wish he’d rejoin the community! Really is a shame if he got banned.
Omg Vince I didn't even notice the date in all my excitement. I thought he had just posted that lol. Face palm!
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Old 6 January 2023, 05:05 AM   #30
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Wait. We are in the oven now and its only begun to start warming up.

My AD took serious care of me in 2022. They offered me a new hard to get piece recently and I turned them down. I plan to turn them down all of 2023. I know I'm not the only one with some money who plans on doing this.
What was the reasoning behind turning it down? Are you expecting below RRP pricing?
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