the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[904VT]

https://theweek.com/speedreads/90464...dults-under-45

Interesting info out of NYC

[RW16610]

Originally Posted by 904VT

https://theweek.com/speedreads/90464...dults-under-45

Interesting info out of NYC

Thanks for sharing. It's scary stuff but very important for info like this to circulate so people (particularly young adults) take the necessary precautions.

Since this virus was only discovered a few months ago more and more info from reputable sources seems to be gradually coming out as tests / research is conducted.

[BBL]

Blog reports about coronavirus news worldwide.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...latest-updates

[RW16610]

Also wanted to share this resource in case it hasn't been already (my apologies if it has):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Albeit scary it's been seemingly accurate with the numbers reported by health agencies globally.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by RW16610

Thanks for sharing. It's scary stuff but very important for info like this to circulate so people (particularly young adults) take the necessary precautions.

Since this virus was only discovered a few months ago more and more info from reputable sources seems to be gradually coming out as tests / research is conducted.

Absolutely, glad to share. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but it is important younger adults don't fall into the trap that it can't hit them.

[mountainjogger]

Gilford County NC (Greensboro) and the adjoining city of Winston-Salem and town of Clemmons have issued SIP orders.

For those concerned about the economic impact, I encourage you to pull one up and read it. The essential businesses list is broad. Of course, lawyers are included as an essential business.

Not saying that there will not bee economic impact, but what I am saying is that it is not a total shut down of society or commerce. For example, if you want to buy a house, the realtor is in an essential business, the so is the closing attorney, and so is the lending institution.

Here is the Winston-Salem NC SIP order. Looks to me like most of the governments in NC are tracking the language.

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.town...e12a6a.pdf.pdf

Stay safe.

[Brew]

At the risk of triggering a whole new group of readers, single use plastic bags are back in style; re-usables are getting banned.

Remember that seen in Sleeper?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Brew

At the risk of triggering a whole new group of readers, single use plastic bags are back in style; re-usables are getting banned.

Makes sense to me. Just like refills of drinks.

Stay safe.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Absolutely, glad to share. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but it is important younger adults don't fall into the trap that it can't hit them.

It actually reduces fear imho.

People are going to get this. It’s nearly inevitable. The extremely low fatality rate among young people is a good sign to most.

And a sign that the most at risk need to take personal responsibility and do what they need to do. Also that we as a society need to do everything we can to help those most at risk.

[RW16610]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Absolutely, glad to share. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but it is important younger adults don't fall into the trap that it can't hit them.

I wholeheartedly agree! It's all about being properly informed with the scientific facts and statistics as they continuously roll out for this new virus.

What's scary to me is people not having the knowledge and allowing this to go somewhere none of us want it to.

I still can't believe this is happening - it feels unreal.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Absolutely, glad to share. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but it is important younger adults don't fall into the trap that it can't hit them.

unfortunately I don't think this is scary enough to some young kids yet. They threw a "coronavirus party" any excuse to throw a party right?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/healt...ion/index.html

[Boothroyd]

Minnesota seems on top of it. Hope Joeychitwood comments. One of the best governmental presentations I have seen as Governor announced a state-wide "shelter in place" today, with charts and options he faced for courses of action. Extremely cogent, focused and powerful.

A few notes. According to Mayo Clinic and the University of MN, in a state of 5.6 million, 75K would die without any actions. To put in perspective, roughly 45K die from all causes annually. So you are looking at 2x annual deaths + normal annual death rate if unchecked. 2% of the population dying this year as opposed to the normal .7% death rate (rounded numbers).

He noted we have 245 ICU beds in the system. Easily swamped if the curve can't be controlled. Death rate is 10x higher for those needing ICU treatment but not getting it.

Closing down for two weeks. Using time to build up capacity of ICU, masks, etc. for surge coming, while at the same time stretching out the surge though shelter in place. Comment made about turning sports stadiums and other facilities into treatment centers during this interim period.

Medtronic, based here, apparently represents 15% of the ventilator product production worldwide. 3M known for the N95 masks. They are trying to ramp up and help out. Distribution of product controlled by US Government.

Anyway, my $.02 as to the stakes.

[RW16610]

Oh man, my thoughts are certainly with the healthcare workers on the front lines. Things are extremely difficult and this is quite sad.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....ng-others/amp/

[77T]

Originally Posted by RW16610

Oh man, my thoughts are certainly with the healthcare workers on the front lines. Things are extremely difficult and this is quite sad.

I feel awful for her family and friends.

Overwhelmed and discouraged are two bywords our front-line health care heroes are feeling. There is no real time to lose the stress between long shifts.

The response for the ones who have underlying emotional instability can lead to the outcome in that story. So very sad...so sad.


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[RW16610]

As do I, especially for the families of the two nurses who took their own lives. The long shifts and prolonged stress is without a doubt concerning. Going above and beyond to look after the public and being completely selfless. May they rest in peace.

[RNHC]

With updated numbers as of March 25, 2020 (note the slight uptick in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The latest US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.4%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.14% to 0.28%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease.

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 2.2.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

Seasonal flu has estimated mean R0 of 1.3.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 928 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[77T]

That NYT link is broken.

But the stat you saw in NYT May be true.



Early studies in China pointed that way.

[77T]

Dupe

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by RNHC

I think the whole thing is overblown. From what I read, 80% exhibit "normal" flu symptoms. The ones who are hardest hit are those with weakened immune system or underlying issues such as respiratory issues, hence elderly are the hardest hit. Interestingly, unlike regular flu, children fare the best, exhibiting mild or no symptoms.

WHO just released the updated mortality rate of coronavirus as over 3% but UK scientist disagreed, stating WHO is basing off flawed data. UK scientists estimate the mortality rate to be 1%. The mortality rate of regular flu is 0.7%.

Just wash your hands frequently, don't touch your face, take some vitamin Cs and stay away from coughing, sniffling people.

Ok, I get it. No cause for concern.

[RNHC]

Per worldometers website as of March 25, 2020:

Italy
74,386 confirmed cases
7,503 deaths
10.1% mortality rate
1.0% estimated real mortality rate

Germany
37,323 confirmed cases
206 deaths
0.55% mortality rate
0.06% estimated real mortality rate

USA
65,527 confirmed cases
928 deaths
1.41% mortality rate
0.14% estimated real mortality rate

[77T]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Ok, I get it. No cause for concern.

You’re a hoot


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[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Minnesota seems on top of it. Hope Joeychitwood comments. One of the best governmental presentations I have seen as Governor announced a state-wide "shelter in place" today, with charts and options he faced for courses of action. Extremely cogent, focused and powerful.

A few notes. According to Mayo Clinic and the University of MN, in a state of 5.6 million, 75K would die without any actions. To put in perspective, roughly 45K die from all causes annually. So you are looking at 2x annual deaths + normal annual death rate if unchecked. 2% of the population dying this year as opposed to the normal .7% death rate (rounded numbers).

He noted we have 245 ICU beds in the system. Easily swamped if the curve can't be controlled. Death rate is 10x higher for those needing ICU treatment but not getting it.

Closing down for two weeks. Using time to build up capacity of ICU, masks, etc. for surge coming, while at the same time stretching out the surge though shelter in place. Comment made about turning sports stadiums and other facilities into treatment centers during this interim period.

Medtronic, based here, apparently represents 15% of the ventilator product production worldwide. 3M known for the N95 masks. They are trying to ramp up and help out. Distribution of product controlled by US Government.

Anyway, my $.02 as to the stakes.

I agree, Daniel. Governor Walz has shown great leadership, focusing on the data and the science. I think his 25 year career as an enlisted soldier in the guard prepared him well.

[77T]

Originally Posted by RNHC

With updated numbers as of March 25, 2020 (note the slight uptick in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The latest US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.4%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.14% to 0.28%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease.

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 2.2.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

Seasonal flu has estimated mean R0 of 1.3.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 928 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Originally Posted by RNHC

Per worldometers website as of March 25, 2020:

Italy
74,386 confirmed cases
7,503 deaths
10.1% mortality rate
1.0% estimated real mortality rate

Germany
37,323 confirmed cases
206 deaths
0.55% mortality rate
0.06% estimated real mortality rate

USA
65,527 confirmed cases
928 deaths
1.41% mortality rate
0.14% estimated real mortality rate

Lots of numbers to unpack.

This has been a terrible disease for those affected.

The number that I sense is causing major concern for each of us? One.

A loved One.

One of our friends.

One who cares for our health.

One who protects us on the thin blue line.

And for some, Number One.

That’s when it hits home - not the millions of this, the thousands of that.

I have no problem with your data - it just made me pause to think about what is concerning many of us...


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[RNHC]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Ok, I get it. No cause for concern.

Do you know anyone who got Covid-19?

From the actual Covid-19 disease, for the majority of the population, not really. For the elderly, yes, it is a serious concern.

Short term, our healthcare system being overwhelmed is a greater concern.
Long term, economic repercussion from imposed restrictions may be the greatest concern.

We had had and survived pandemics in the past without drastic measures.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...1957-pandemic/

[hcivic91]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I agree, Daniel. Governor Walz has shown great leadership, focusing on the data and the science. I think his 25 year career as an enlisted soldier in the guard prepared him well.

I too agree. There is a plan and he asked us to buy in. Along the way he informed and prepared us. Can’t help but assume that Osterholm is helping behind the scenes, big time.

[RNHC]

What got me puzzled is the dramatic difference between Italy and Germany's mortality rate - 10.1% and 0.6% respectively. I read various possible explanations from touchy-kissy Italian culture to extensive testing in Germany but I am not sure any of those theories can explain such a vast difference.

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Do you know anyone who got Covid-19?

From the actual Covid-19 disease, for the majority of the population, not really. For the elderly, yes, it is a serious concern.

Short term, our healthcare system being overwhelmed is a greater concern.
Long term, economic repercussion from imposed restrictions may be the greatest concern.

We had had and survived pandemics in the past without drastic measures.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...1957-pandemic/

Yes, I do know a person with Covid-19. And the person is not elderly. You will have to take my word on that, as I certainly am not going provide any more details on a public forum. But even if I didn't, your argument would not convince me. Given I have extended relatives who died in 1918 (was told those stories from my parents). In addition, I might remind you that the polio epidemic lead to social distancing as well.

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by hcivic91

I too agree. There is a plan and he asked us to buy in. Along the way he informed and prepared us. Can’t help but assume that Osterholm is helping behind the scenes, big time.

Yes, a call out to Osterholm. Tremendous public servant.

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Yes, I do know a person with Covid-19. And the person is not elderly.

Who said only the elderly can get Covid-19? Let's hope that person is not one of the unlucky few.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Do you know anyone who got Covid-19?

From the actual Covid-19 disease, for the majority of the population, not really. For the elderly, yes, it is a serious concern.

Short term, our healthcare system being overwhelmed is a greater concern.
Long term, economic repercussion from imposed restrictions may be the greatest concern.

We had had and survived pandemics in the past without drastic measures.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...1957-pandemic/

I doubt there is any number of deaths, any number of healthcare providers killed by the virus, any number of critically ill patients overwhelming the medical centers of America that could convince you that this is anything more than the common cold. Unless it’s the exponential growth in all of the above that will happen in the US in the next two weeks. I’m baffled by your blindness to the scale of human suffering and the seriousness of the slow motion disaster occurring on our planet.