the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Brew

I wonder how many ventilators are in the rural county hospitals where folks still feel safe?

Our local hospital has seven. It serves a population of 25,000 people.

[spoon-turbo]

I’m using this tracker if anyone’s interested.

Few weeks ago, the deaths were around 10,000. Today it’s 66,000++

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Watch This

It must be exhausting to be an expert authority on so very many subjects.

Sigh.... It’s a curse Watch, but I persevere.

Don’t know if this has been posted but here is a (supposedly) real time virus statistic world wide. Right now it is at. 1.2 million cases and 65,000 (ish) deaths. That is... 5% death rate(?). If anyone knows, what is the death rate for any other influenza?



https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by directioneng

People who sign that waiver would not care about the affect on others and would do what they want to do. This is the main problem we have now.
If all the distancing and other requirements were being carried out by everyone things would be very different.

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s correct, but there would no treatment for them if they contract the virus.

I agree with you, btw....I would hope it wouldn’t come to any of that, but as long as the virus is about, there is no normal, so if people really want to choose to do what they want, they can’t ask healthcare workers to bear the brunt of their choices.

Sounds like we might have a compromise here. Here’s my idea.

I and millions of others will sign the waiver and then things can go back to normal right away. If this virus ends up being just a little worse than the flu then all you guys who were on board for all this have to pay the trillions of dollars that have been completely vaporized by this current action. If it’s worse by far than a normal flu and the death rate goes well above 100,000 then we waived our rights to treatment.

By the way I assure you that I care as much if not more about life than most people on the planet. I am highly passionate about life. You realize one can be passionate about life and preserving it and at the same time believe all this is being blown way out of proportion right? I’m tired of people I disagree with accusing me of being ignorant or not caring about other peoples lives. That’s not an argument. Besides it only seems like it works when that accusation is being displayed in a room where they are the majority. Kind of like this thread.

Just don’t understand why dissent is so disrespected and put down here.

[AzPaul]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Sigh.... It’s a curse Watch, but I persevere.

Don’t know if this has been posted but here is a (supposedly) real time virus statistic world wide. Right now it is at. 1.2 million cases and 65,000 (ish) deaths. That is... 5% death rate(?). If anyone knows, what is the death rate for any other influenza?
https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

There have been so many unconfirmed, undetected cases (display no symptoms) those rates mean very little at this point. When this wave has passed, things have settled down, and they can do some broader testing to the population as a whole, they'll have a much more meaningful number.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Sigh.... It’s a curse Watch, but I persevere.

Don’t know if this has been posted but here is a (supposedly) real time virus statistic world wide. Right now it is at. 1.2 million cases and 65,000 (ish) deaths. That is... 5% death rate(?). If anyone knows, what is the death rate for any other influenza?



https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

Seasonal ‘flu mortality is estimated at about 0.1% (upper limit) but calculating the total number of cases in any given year requires a degree of guesswork so I wouldn’t hang my hat on that figure.

Bear in mind the CV19 mortality rate isn’t really 5% because far, far more people have contracted the virus than have tested positive for it. We haven’t got a hope of knowing exactly how many until there’s a reliable antibody test.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Sounds like we might have a compromise here. Here’s my idea.

I and millions of others will sign the waiver and then things can go back to normal right away. If this virus ends up being just a little worse than the flu then all you guys who were on board for all this have to pay the trillions of dollars that have been completely vaporized by this current action. If it’s worse by far than a normal flu and the death rate goes well above 100,000 then we waived our rights to treatment.

By the way I assure you that I care as much if not more about life than most people on the planet. I am highly passionate about life. You realize one can be passionate about life and preserving it and at the same time believe all this is being blown way out of proportion right? I’m tired of people I disagree with accusing me of being ignorant or not caring about other peoples lives. That’s not an argument. Besides it only seems like it works when that accusation is being displayed in a room where they are the majority. Kind of like this thread.

Just don’t understand why dissent is so disrespected and put down here.

Very well expressed Bret. I agree with some of what you say. I understand this is a very serious situation, and I am taking appropriate measures, (staying at home, washing my hands etc. ) but I am of the personal belief that the outcome will not be nearly as horrible as a lot of people on here seem to try and make us accept. Yes, it is bad, and yes, we all have to make adjustments, but call me an optimist, I believe we will not achieve the 250,000 deaths some forecast for this virus nor that the four horses of the apocalypse are on their way. I have no medical training to back this up, just a belief that while this is a bad illness, we will persevere. I have fought in a war. I have seen the terrible things and the good things humans can do. I just believe we can and will over-come this.

I think all of us, even those that express a terrible outcome, should be hoping (praying) I am right.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Seasonal ‘flu mortality is estimated at about 0.1% (upper limit) but calculating the total number of cases in any given year requires a degree of guesswork so I wouldn’t hang my hat on that figure.

Bear in mind the CV19 mortality rate isn’t really 5% because far, far more people have contracted the virus than have tested positive for it. We haven’t got a hope of knowing exactly how many until there’s a reliable antibody test.

Excellent point. I guess no one really knows how accurate the “numbers” are right now. And as I pointed out, I believe many of those deaths attributed to Corona would have occurred with or without the Corona Virus. I am not belittling ANY one’s passing, and pray for those that have moved on to RIP, but I feel a lot of those that are vulnerable would have passed with a “regular” influenza or had other issues that would have caused their death. Let’s all hope the numbers, whatever they may be, are reduced and brought to zero as soon as possible.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Very well expressed Bret. I agree with some of what you say. I understand this is a very serious situation, and I am taking appropriate measures, (staying at home, washing my hands etc. ) but I am of the personal belief that the outcome will not be nearly as horrible as a lot of people on here seem to try and make us accept. Yes, it is bad, and yes, we all have to make adjustments, but call me an optimist, I believe we will not achieve the 250,000 deaths some forecast for this virus nor that the four horses of the apocalypse are on their way. I have no medical training to back this up, just a belief that while this is a bad illness, we will persevere. I have fought in a war. I have seen the terrible things and the good things humans can do. I just believe we can and will over-come this.

I think all of us, even those that express a terrible outcome, should be hoping (praying) I am right.

Thank you. I don’t think they’ll get anywhere near 240,000 either. Also keep in mind that unfortunately they are counting any death in some of these hot zones as caused by coronavirus. That’s definitely going to mix these numbers up since we lose about 8000 people a day already.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...-not-required/

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Sounds like we might have a compromise here. Here’s my idea.

I and millions of others will sign the waiver and then things can go back to normal right away. If this virus ends up being just a little worse than the flu then all you guys who were on board for all this have to pay the trillions of dollars that have been completely vaporized by this current action. If it’s worse by far than a normal flu and the death rate goes well above 100,000 then we waived our rights to treatment.

Oh, we'll all be paying for it, don't worry. Still a good idea to stay home and flatten the curve regardless.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Thank you. I don’t think they’ll get anywhere near 240,000 either. Also keep in mind that unfortunately they are counting any death in some of these hot zones as caused by coronavirus. That’s definitely going to mix these numbers up since we lose about 8000 people a day already.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...-not-required/

The flip side is I’m certain there are lots of CV deaths that are going unrecorded.

I went to a mortuary on Friday that I’ve been to many times in the past. Their fridges were full to the brim and the undertaker confirmed to me they had 2-3x more bodies than they usually would at this time of year. As these were deaths in the community it’s unlikely any would’ve been tested for Coronavirus meaning their cause of death wouldn’t be recorded as such.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The flip side is I’m certain there are lots of CV deaths that are going unrecorded.

I went to a mortuary on Friday that I’ve been to many times in the past. Their fridges were full to the brim and the undertaker confirmed to me they had 2-3x more bodies than they usually would at this time of year. As these were deaths in the community it’s unlikely any would’ve been tested for Coronavirus meaning their cause of death wouldn’t be recorded as such.

Another excellent point, some deaths are not recorded as Corona, when they could very well be a result of the virus. Really makes you wonder what “numbers” are accurate?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Very well expressed Bret. I agree with some of what you say. I understand this is a very serious situation, and I am taking appropriate measures, (staying at home, washing my hands etc. ) but I am of the personal belief that the outcome will not be nearly as horrible as a lot of people on here seem to try and make us accept. Yes, it is bad, and yes, we all have to make adjustments, but call me an optimist, I believe we will not achieve the 250,000 deaths some forecast for this virus nor that the four horses of the apocalypse are on their way. I have no medical training to back this up, just a belief that while this is a bad illness, we will persevere. I have fought in a war. I have seen the terrible things and the good things humans can do. I just believe we can and will over-come this.

I think all of us, even those that express a terrible outcome, should be hoping (praying) I am right.

But isn’t the current plan supposed to try to minimize the number of deaths? If we end up at far less than 250000 deaths shouldn’t that be viewed as the measures in place worked?

I think the government is in a damned if they do / damned if they don’t position.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by brandrea

But isn’t the current plan supposed to try to minimize the number of deaths? If we end up at far less than 250000 deaths shouldn’t that be viewed as the measures in place worked?

I think the government is in a damned if they do / damned if they don’t position.

That may be, that the number would be 250,000 if we DIDN’T do the current measures? I thought it was we would hit those numbers regardless Anyone know?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The flip side is I’m certain there are lots of CV deaths that are going unrecorded.

I went to a mortuary on Friday that I’ve been to many times in the past. Their fridges were full to the brim and the undertaker confirmed to me they had 2-3x more bodies than they usually would at this time of year. As these were deaths in the community it’s unlikely any would’ve been tested for Coronavirus meaning their cause of death wouldn’t be recorded as such.

I just don’t see how that’s possible. At least not to the extent or even close to what they are saying in this article I posted. Seems in this environment they are much more likely to count a natural death by cardiac arrest or finally succumbing to lung cancer etc. as being caused by coronavirus. It’s been reported all over the place that’s exactly what’s happening in Italy.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by brandrea

But isn’t the current plan supposed to try to minimize the number of deaths? If we end up at far less than 250000 deaths shouldn’t that be viewed as the measures in place worked?

I think the government is in a damned if they do / damned if they don’t position.

It’s been my understanding that they’ve always assumed the same amount of people we’re going to die no matter what we do. They just wanted to do it over a longer period of time to not overwhelm the hospitals. It’s true they say that more lives would be saved by not overwhelming the hospitals but those are estimated by models of which are very own dr. Fauci said just the other day we shouldn’t count on models anymore.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

That may be, that the number would be 250,000 if we DIDN’T do the current measures? I thought it was we would hit those numbers regardless Anyone know?

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’s been my understanding that they’ve always assumed the same amount of people we’re going to die no matter what we do. They just wanted to do it over a longer period of time to not overwhelm the hospitals. It’s true they say that more lives would be saved by not overwhelming the hospitals but those are estimated by models of which are very own dr. Fauci said just the other day we shouldn’t count on models anymore.

There in lies the social experiment I guess ... no one knows with certainty.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by brandrea

There in lies the social experiment I guess ... no one knows with certainty.

Exactly right. But what we do know with 100% certainty is that Government(s) have grounded the economies of the west to a complete and total halt.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I just don’t see how that’s possible. At least not to the extent or even close to what they are saying in this article I posted. Seems in this environment they are much more likely to count a natural death by cardiac arrest or finally succumbing to lung cancer etc. as being caused by coronavirus. It’s been reported all over the place that’s exactly what’s happening in Italy.

I certainly can’t speak for your neck of the woods, or anywhere else I suppose. Here, as long as the death is natural and the physician who knows the patient feels he/she is able to have a decent stab at the cause of death, they can issue a death certificate and the Coroner does not need to get involved. Just this past week I certified a nursing home resident as having died of a “lower respiratory tract infection” (with a confirmed case of CV19 in the same home). In the current climate it is pretty likely she died of COVID-19 but in the absence of laboratory evidence it went unrecorded as such. Everything reported in the news relating to mortality generally reflects what’s going on in hospitals, but hereabouts more people die in the community.

[gliderpilot]

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’s been my understanding that they’ve always assumed the same amount of people we’re going to die no matter what we do. They just wanted to do it over a longer period of time to not overwhelm the hospitals. It’s true they say that more lives would be saved by not overwhelming the hospitals but those are estimated by models of which are very own dr. Fauci said just the other day we shouldn’t count on models anymore.

That's right. The virus will be around until it either runs out of victims or we have an effective vaccine, no matter what we do.

Less people die if it happens over a longer time period with a coping health care system, but how much less is anybody's guess.

Sweden chose not to "destroy the house to kill the fly", so we will know soon enough if we were overreacting or not.

Mother Nature doesn't care either way. Hopefully we will be better prepared the next time...

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I certainly can’t speak for your neck of the woods. Here, as long as the death is natural and the physician who knows the patient feels he/she is able to have a decent stab at the cause of death, they can issue a death certificate and the Coroner does not need to get involved. Just this past week I certified a nursing home resident as having died of a “lower respiratory tract infection” (with a confirmed case of CV19 in the same home). In the current climate it is pretty likely she died of COVID-19 but in the absence of laboratory evidence it went unrecorded as such.

That sounds very reasonable.

I don’t think what I stated above is happening in places like Omaha Nebraska or Springfield Illinois. I think it’s happening where the hotspots are.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That sounds very reasonable.

I don’t think what I stated above is happening in places like Omaha Nebraska or Springfield Illinois. I think it’s happening where the hotspots are.

I agree that what you said is also happening. Here many people in hospital are being reported as having died “with” COVID-19. Whether or not the numbers cancel each other out to produce roughly accurate statistics is anybody’s guess. I suspect we won’t really have a proper perspective until long after this is all over.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Exactly right. But what we do know with 100% certainty is that Government(s) have grounded the economies of the west to a complete and total halt.

I agree partly Brett. I also think that there are plenty of smart people (much smarter than me at least) who use the science to back the position that the current course is needed to stop a much worse outcome.

Again, damned if they do, damned if they don’t I suppose, and now this thread has become the same topic going in circles. How many lives are worth “X” vs the healthy or destruction of the economy.

I appreciate you challenging me to try and think differently about this, but I’m pretty resolute in my thinking on this one.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Sounds like we might have a compromise here. Here’s my idea.

I and millions of others will sign the waiver and then things can go back to normal right away. If this virus ends up being just a little worse than the flu then all you guys who were on board for all this have to pay the trillions of dollars that have been completely vaporized by this current action. If it’s worse by far than a normal flu and the death rate goes well above 100,000 then we waived our rights to treatment.

By the way I assure you that I care as much if not more about life than most people on the planet. I am highly passionate about life. You realize one can be passionate about life and preserving it and at the same time believe all this is being blown way out of proportion right? I’m tired of people I disagree with accusing me of being ignorant or not caring about other peoples lives. That’s not an argument. Besides it only seems like it works when that accusation is being displayed in a room where they are the majority. Kind of like this thread.

Just don’t understand why dissent is so disrespected and put down here.

Here's my take.

I do not think you are ignorant.

I do listen to dissenting views. People who are afraid to consider other opinions don't learn.

But, I still disagree with you on most issues Brett, but as the saying goes, I will fight for your right to express them.

Stay safe.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I appreciate you challenging me to try and think differently about this, but I’m pretty resolute in my thinking on this one.

As usual, you said it shorter and better than I.

Stay safe.

[mountainjogger]

Here is an interesting article for thinking about mitigation and restart. May explain hot spots in congested urban areas. But the take away is that other areas may see spikes unless we have behavior changes when we start back up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/o...iral-dose.html

Stay safe.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I just don’t see how that’s possible. At least not to the extent or even close to what they are saying in this article I posted. Seems in this environment they are much more likely to count a natural death by cardiac arrest or finally succumbing to lung cancer etc. as being caused by coronavirus. It’s been reported all over the place that’s exactly what’s happening in Italy.

I have to agree wholeheartedly.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

This guy... what numbers are you referring to? Can you please elaborate?

Flip side is the guy that ignores the no fire warnings, crank up the grill and then burn their house down. And his neighbor's.

Stay safe.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I have to agree wholeheartedly.

But doesn't the same thing happen when they report flu deaths?

Stay safe.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

But doesn't the same thing happen when they report flu deaths?

Stay safe.

It's possible, and perhaps to the same end. Regardless, the virus, or the flu, COULD be taking credit where it's not due.


I lost my dad about 5 years ago. He had CHF, and was on various blood thinners. He fell, hit his head, and hemorrhaged before he could be saved. What killed him? Heart trouble? Exsanguination? A fall? Drugs? Just think if that event took place today, amidst all of this. Thats the thing about statistics...choose the outcome you are looking for, and it can be made to read that way.