the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Another excellent point, some deaths are not recorded as Corona, when they could very well be a result of the virus. Really makes you wonder what “numbers” are accurate?

We aren’t ever going to have accurate numbers because of China not being transparent and the mortality rate in the States isn’t ever going to be accurate because so many people have had the virus already and showed little to no symptoms and didn’t even know they had it or currently have it.

[77T]

Originally Posted by pickettt

It's possible, and perhaps to the same end. Regardless, the virus, or the flu, COULD be taking credit where it's not due.


I lost my dad about 5 years ago. He had CHF, and was on various blood thinners. He fell, hit his head, and hemorrhaged before he could be saved. What killed him? Heart trouble? Exsanguination? A fall? Drugs? Just think if that event took place today, amidst all of this. Thats the thing about statistics...choose the outcome you are looking for, and it can be made to read that way.

Wouldn’t you list direct chain of events followed by all contributing factors in Section 32, Part 1 and Part 2?


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf


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[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I certainly can’t speak for your neck of the woods, or anywhere else I suppose. Here, as long as the death is natural and the physician who knows the patient feels he/she is able to have a decent stab at the cause of death, they can issue a death certificate and the Coroner does not need to get involved. Just this past week I certified a nursing home resident as having died of a “lower respiratory tract infection” (with a confirmed case of CV19 in the same home). In the current climate it is pretty likely she died of COVID-19 but in the absence of laboratory evidence it went unrecorded as such. Everything reported in the news relating to mortality generally reflects what’s going on in hospitals, but hereabouts more people die in the community.

Shouldn’t we be testing people dying in these circumstances so we have accurate stats? Would be helpful if we could rely on the numbers dying due to Covid.

If we can’t capture accurate numbers in the U.K., I dread to think of the under-reporting coming out of developing countries.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

Shouldn’t we be testing people dying in these circumstances so we have accurate stats? Would be helpful if we could rely on the numbers dying due to Covid.

If we can’t capture accurate numbers in the U.K., I dread to think of the under-reporting coming out of developing countries.

Yes we should. But given there aren’t enough tests to go around, frail, multimorbid people in the community whose care never reaches hospital are not a priority for testing. That’s not a value judgement from me, just a comment on the unfortunate reality.

I’m convinced that the number of people who’ve been infected in this country already numbers in the 7-digits, but the confirmed case number languishes in the tens of thousands.

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I and millions of others will sign the waiver and then things can go back to normal right away. If it’s worse by far than a normal flu and the death rate goes well above 100,000 then we waived our rights to treatment.

Brett, So how do we make sure that the people who signed this waiver also sign off the rights to healthcare for all their family members including their children who may come into close contact with them. Also how do we make sure they don't spread it to shelter in place people when they must go out to get essential items like groceries etc. Also lastly how does the hospital police this idea with 100% assurance no one games the system. When people are very sick they become very desperate for medical help.

Originally Posted by gliderpilot

Sweden chose not to "destroy the house to kill the fly", so we will know soon enough if we were overreacting or not.

So for those hanging out hope that Sweden is the smartest government in the world may be in for a surprise. Looks like their numbers are growing faster than not only Norway a country that shares its longest border but also Finland who both closed up shop. Here's a comparison of their numbers as of yesterday:

Sweden - Cases 6830 New Cases 387 Deaths 401 New Deaths 28 Death Rate 5.8%
Norway - Cases 5645 New Cases 95 Deaths 66 New Deaths 4 Death Rate 1.1%
Finland - Cases 1927 New Cases 45 Deaths 28 New Deaths 3 Death Rate 1.4%

[77T]

I’m not selling for Columbia, but they have put their neck gaiter on sale, are taking orders and fulfilling them.

If you don’t have a mask to cover your face per the recent CDC/NIH request, then no worries - try something that will also keep your neck from being sunburned.




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[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

So how do we make sure that the people who signed this waiver also sign off the rights to healthcare for all their family members including their children who may come into close contact with them. Also how do we make sure they don't spread it to shelter in place people when they must go out to get essential items like groceries etc. Also lastly how does the hospital police this idea with 100% assurance no one games the system. When people are very sick they become very desperate for medical help.

I was biting my tongue. Thanks for applying some basic logic when 113,704 cases in New York alone, 15,905 hospitalized, 4,126 in ICUs, 3,565 dead (630 Friday night alone) and health care workers working to absolute exhaustion don’t seem to do it.

[Brew]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Our local hospital has seven. It serves a population of 25,000 people.

Thanks Doc.

I wonder how many folks can safely go back to work with just 7 machines to serve your county? And lets also figure out the benefits to society as a whole from their efforts, since these economy patriots all seem to want to go back to work for the benefit of us all, not just their 401Ks.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’s been my understanding that they’ve always assumed the same amount of people we’re going to die no matter what we do. They just wanted to do it over a longer period of time to not overwhelm the hospitals. It’s true they say that more lives would be saved by not overwhelming the hospitals but those are estimated by models of which are very own dr. Fauci said just the other day we shouldn’t count on models anymore.

I think this is actually true.

Lockdown stops panic. Lockdown buys time. Lockdown spreads out the cases. Lockdown saves a few lives.

But until a vaccine, roughly the same number of people will die from it. Because you can't stay in lockdown for many more months.

As has been said, we are just spreading out the hospitalized rate to handle it more slowly.

[SMD]

Gateway pundit. Was Infowars unavailable?

For those unfamiliar - google it and see what you are dealing with.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Yes we should. But given there aren’t enough tests to go around, frail, multimorbid people in the community whose care never reaches hospital are not a priority for testing. That’s not a value judgement from me, just a comment on the unfortunate reality.

I’m convinced that the number of people who’ve been infected in this country already numbers in the 7-digits, but the confirmed case number languishes in the tens of thousands.

Would be great news if the people who’ve been infected is already in the 7 digits; we should reach the peak, or herd immunity, sooner!

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’m not selling for Columbia, but they have put their neck gaiter on sale, are taking orders and fulfilling them.

If you don’t have a mask to cover your face per the recent CDC/NIH request, then no worries - try something that will also keep your neck from being sunburned.




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I ordered two different ones from Columbia yesterday. I'll use them to hold a filter. Sign up for their rewards program and they ship free.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Here's my take.

I do not think you are ignorant.

I do listen to dissenting views. People who are afraid to consider other opinions don't learn.

But, I still disagree with you on most issues Brett, but as the saying goes, I will fight for your right to express them.

Stay safe.

I think you are and have always been respectful, courteous and very friendly.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Watch This

It must be exhausting to be an expert authority on so very many subjects.

I try to make my posts have a reason and purpose.

Not sure the intention of yours, seems antagonistic.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SMD

Gateway pundit. Was Infowars unavailable?

For those unfamiliar - google it and see what you are dealing with.

Well everyone has been very reasonable. And then there’s you.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Sigh.... It’s a curse Watch, but I persevere.

Don’t know if this has been posted but here is a (supposedly) real time virus statistic world wide. Right now it is at. 1.2 million cases and 65,000 (ish) deaths. That is... 5% death rate(?). If anyone knows, what is the death rate for any other influenza?



https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

Thanks but I believe he was attacking me, but I appreciate you stepping in front of the bullet.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I think this is actually true.

Lockdown stops panic. Lockdown buys time. Lockdown spreads out the cases. Lockdown saves a few lives.

But until a vaccine, roughly the same number of people will die from it. Because you can't stay in lockdown for many more months.

As has been said, we are just spreading out the hospitalized rate to handle it more slowly.

Yes, let's imagine what things would be like without a forced shutdown. People start getting sick, then people start dying. Many businesses will act on their own, as the NBA and J.P. Morgan did. Some will stay open, including some bars/restaurants, which will be hotspots for transmission. Depending how many people refuse to show up to work at those places, the end result could be similar to a forced shutdown. And once people realize the hospitals are overrun, they'll be extra afraid of getting sick -- because at that point, being sick enough to truly need a hospital would be a death sentence.

maybe the above wouldn't happen everywhere, but it could happen in big cities

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Yes, let's imagine what things would be like without a forced shutdown. People start getting sick, then people start dying. Many businesses will act on their own, as the NBA and J.P. Morgan did. Some will stay open, including some bars/restaurants, which will be hotspots for transmission. Depending how many people refuse to show up to work at those places, the end result could be similar to a forced shutdown. And once people realize the hospitals are overrun, they'll be extra afraid of getting sick -- because at that point, being sick enough to truly need a hospital would be a death sentence.

maybe the above wouldn't happen everywhere, but it could happen in big cities

So then you believe all that’s going to happen starting May 1st?

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So then you believe all that’s going to happen starting May 1st?

I have no idea what will happen after April. I don't like the shutdown any more than you do, but there's a plausible argument that the virus was going to shut us down anyway, and in a less orderly fashion.

It's not as if the government did this with enthusiasm. They collect taxes on economic transactions. Less economic activity = less revenue.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by makak

I read on CNN this morning, and I know you can't believe everything you read, especially when it comes to news reporting. The article stated that front line medical staff were wearing ponchos for protection and didn't have any N95 masks for staff. A few people here have stated they have family members in the medical field. Is this really true?

Yes.

My wife admitted two infants to her NICU on Wednesday night and was not allowed to have an allocated N95 because they did not have test results in yet confirming positive COVID because of testing turn around time.

Policy now changed as a result to allocate N95 for every suspected case as well even if this speeds up depletion.

[gliderpilot]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I think this is actually true.

Lockdown stops panic. Lockdown buys time. Lockdown spreads out the cases. Lockdown saves a few lives.

But until a vaccine, roughly the same number of people will die from it. Because you can't stay in lockdown for many more months.

As has been said, we are just spreading out the hospitalized rate to handle it more slowly.

Fully agree. In addition, there are MANY more COVID-19 positive people than we account for, so in some places (Italy, NYC) we are locking down an already infected population, thus greatly reducing the desired effect. Sadly, I personally know several families where the virus is spreading among family members regardless.

Until there is an effective vaccine, the virus will run its course one way or another :-(

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Well everyone has been very reasonable. And then there’s you.

Florida man does logic.

[Plastique999]

Cellex received emergent FDA approval for rapid testing antibody for COVID-19. If antibody tested positive (IgG, IgM), person would be recovered and immune to this strain. This would allow that person to go out into the work force, especially important for health care workers who are actively treating COVID patients. If we are able to perform this serology testing on a broad scale, we could get many people (who are already immune) back to work.
This could be huge.


Sent from my Zeitwerk

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by SMD

Florida man does logic.

C'mon guys. We know there are people here all over the political spectrum.

That's the beauty of the discussion. Lots of viewpoints.

My theory is I never learn much from people I agree with, so differing viewpoints are good.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Plastique999

Cellex received emergent FDA approval for rapid testing antibody for COVID-19. If antibody tested positive (IgG, IgM), person would be recovered and immune to this strain. This would allow that person to go out into the work force, especially important for health care workers who are actively treating COVID patients. If we are able to perform this serology testing on a broad scale, we could get many people (who are already immune) back to work.
This could be huge.


Sent from my Zeitwerk

Links? This is good news if proven effective!

[JasoninDenver]

We now have 4 cases in our neighborhood. Unfortunately, the most recent two are both in families who either thought that this is all media BS or that it was okay to have only one kid over at a time to play.

Friday night one family had a group evening walk and play date with 7 kids all together. Now one of the moms has a high fever. Needless to say they are finally taking this seriously.

The other two are recovered. The dad said it was the worst two weeks of his life. The mom said hers felt like a very mild flu.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Blansky

C'mon guys. We know there are people here all over the political spectrum.

That's the beauty of the discussion. Lots of viewpoints.

My theory is I never learn much from people I agree with, so differing viewpoints are good.

You are absolutely right. As you noticed it was him that came after me. I appreciate you bringing that up. I’ll just ignore him from here forward.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

We now have 4 cases in our neighborhood. Unfortunately, the most recent two are both in families who either thought that this is all media BS or that it was okay to have only one kid over at a time to play.

Friday night one family had a group evening walk and play date with 7 kids all together. Now one of the moms has a high fever. Needless to say they are finally taking this seriously.

The other two are recovered. The dad said it was the worst two weeks of his life. The mom said hers felt like a very mild flu.

That sir is a remarkably powerful assumption. Incredibly judgmental too.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’m not selling for Columbia, but they have put their neck gaiter on sale, are taking orders and fulfilling them.

If you don’t have a mask to cover your face per the recent CDC/NIH request, then no worries - try something that will also keep your neck from being sunburned.




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Thanks. I ordered one.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Blansky

C'mon guys. We know there are people here all over the political spectrum.

That's the beauty of the discussion. Lots of viewpoints.

My theory is I never learn much from people I agree with, so differing viewpoints are good.

My only issue with the viewpoint of “we need to get back to business” is simply that this viewpoint is the natural progression of those who initially thought this was a hoax, then advanced to believing that was no worse than the regular flu and now say our mitigation efforts are doing more harm than good.

The holders of these opinions have been consistently wrong because their opinions are not based on anything more than a “feeling”.

Similarly, no one here has been able to offer anything more than speculation that the effects of a shutdown are going to be worse than the effects of a pandemic let loose with no social distancing.