the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That sir is a remarkably powerful assumption. Incredibly judgmental too.

What was an assumption?

I have personally talked to ALL of these people. Our kids all played together before this hit. we are a very social neighborhood and even do groups camping trips together.

Since my wife is a doctor, guess who is the first one that gets the calls with questions in the hood.

Judgmental??

Damn straight.

I listened to one neighbor question the wisdom on this social distancing for weeks. Watched him have group play dates. His wife came down with a fever last night. He is now scared. The families who socialized with them thinking it would be okay are now scared as well.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

But doesn't the same thing happen when they report flu deaths?

Actually, in the US it’s just the opposite. I base my statement on my experience as a deputy county coroner for five years. A death was not officially attributed to influenza unless it was a KNOWN case of influenza. Many suspected influenza deaths are attributed to pneumonia, multi-system organ failure, congestive heart failure or other co-morbid entities. Likewise, we were not allowed to list “cardiac arrest” as a cause of death, as ultimately, every patient who dies suffers a cardiac arrest. I would guess that a much larger number of people are dying of Covid-19 than are being attributed to the virus on a death certificate due to the absence of testing, the presence of co-morbid disease, etc.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

My only issue with the viewpoint of “we need to get back to business” is simply that this viewpoint is the natural progression of those who initially thought this was a hoax, then advanced to believing that was no worse than the regular flu and now say our mitigation efforts are doing more harm than good.

The holders of these opinions have been consistently wrong because their opinions are not based on anything more than a “feeling”.

Similarly, no one here has been able to offer anything more than speculation that the effects of a shutdown are going to be worse than the effects of a pandemic let loose with no social distancing.

I find the comments from the last 177 pages interesting and thought provoking and some range from "JANE, YOU IGNORANT SLUT", to " I LOVE YOU, MAN." And everything in between.

We do have to remember this is a pretty stressful time for most people and kind of like, Pearl Harbor was bombed, we declared war, and now the calm before the storm. Because soon the real action starts and nobody knows how it will end, but there will be a lot of death.

[Star Ferry]

Even with fewer folks on the roads, more people in Italy and Spain are dying than usual. And it's more than the reported COVID deaths.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...y-mystery.html

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by gliderpilot

That's right. The virus will be around until it either runs out of victims or we have an effective vaccine, no matter what we do.

Less people die if it happens over a longer time period with a coping health care system, but how much less is anybody's guess.

Sweden chose not to "destroy the house to kill the fly", so we will know soon enough if we were overreacting or not.

Mother Nature doesn't care either way. Hopefully we will be better prepared the next time...

From the Washington Post in their live updates section,

“The Swedish government is considering implementing more restrictions in response to the coronavirus outbreak, potentially marking a tactical shift in the hands-off approach that had set it apart from much of Europe.

As of Sunday, 6,830 people in Sweden have been confirmed to be infected with the virus, while at least 401 people have died. News agency TT reported this weekend that a backlog in deaths announced by Sweden’s Public Health Agency may mean the real death toll is higher.”

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

My only issue with the viewpoint of “we need to get back to business” is simply that this viewpoint is the natural progression of those who initially thought this was a hoax, then advanced to believing that was no worse than the regular flu and now say our mitigation efforts are doing more harm than good.

The holders of these opinions have been consistently wrong because their opinions are not based on anything more than a “feeling”.

Similarly, no one here has been able to offer anything more than speculation that the effects of a shutdown are going to be worse than the effects of a pandemic let loose with no social distancing.

For many people the effects are indeed no worse or even less than the flu. Then you have the other side of the coin especially for people who are obese, diabetic, heart disease, etc.

You are trying to speak in absolutes about a virus that has many different risk profiles. That sure sounds like “feelings” to me.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I find the comments from the last 177 pages interesting and thought provoking and some range from "JANE, YOU IGNORANT SLUT", to " I LOVE YOU, MAN." And everything in between.

We do have to remember this is a pretty stressful time for most people and kind of like, Pearl Harbor was bombed, we declared war, and now the calm before the storm. Because soon the real action starts and nobody knows how it will end, but there will be a lot of death.

Sorry, I guess I should have done a separate post as I had no intent of questioning your viewpoint there.

I respect everyone’s opinion as long as it is based on facts.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

What was an assumption?

I have personally talked to ALL of these people. Our kids all played together before this hit. we are a very social neighborhood and even do groups camping trips together.

Since my wife is a doctor, guess who is the first one that gets the calls with questions in the hood.

Judgmental??

Damn straight.

I listened to one neighbor question the wisdom on this social distancing for weeks. Watched him have group play dates. His wife came down with a fever last night. He is now scared. The families who socialized with them thinking it would be okay are now scared as well.

I read an article yesterday where some people in Germany were calling the police on their neighbors that were doing things they didn’t like what they disagreed with when it came to this virus. Perhaps you should do the same thing.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by ronricks

For many people the effects are indeed no worse or even less than the flu. Then you have the other side of the coin especially for people who are obese, diabetic, heart disease, etc.

You are trying to speak in absolutes about a virus that has many different risk profiles. That sure sounds like “feelings” to me.

I have always viewed the “absolute” in terms that this is a serious virus but that it does affect different populations differently.

My earlier post made it clear that one person had very little problems with the effects while her husband felt like death for two weeks. Both were extremely healthy young athletes. Both will tell you that this is serious.

My personal “feelings” are that people are not taking this seriously enough, even on my own block. Well, until about 8:00 pm last night.

Do you feel this is not serious? If so, why not?

I am always open to different viewpoints but some of the arguments I have seen range from baseless conspiracy theories about 5g and/or a world domination plot.

Some people with whom I disagree with on fundamentals posit very reasonable views on how to start ramping back up the economy.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I read an article yesterday where some people in Germany were calling the police on their neighbors that were doing things they didn’t like what they disagreed with when it came to this virus. Perhaps you should do the same thing.

Believe it or not, I would never do that.

However, we chose not to let our kids participate in these groups playdates and bike rides because of what we viewed as a clear lack of common sense.

Can you imagine telling a three year old not to touch or get close to his friends? Did not happen and we watched it from our front window.

I am now just hoping this does not explode in our neighborhood.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

My only issue with the viewpoint of “we need to get back to business” is simply that this viewpoint is the natural progression of those who initially thought this was a hoax, then advanced to believing that was no worse than the regular flu and now say our mitigation efforts are doing more harm than good.

The holders of these opinions have been consistently wrong because their opinions are not based on anything more than a “feeling”.

Similarly, no one here has been able to offer anything more than speculation that the effects of a shutdown are going to be worse than the effects of a pandemic let loose with no social distancing.

while all that is reasonable, and I needed to look at my own progression to confirm, I do not agree. again, only because I am in that camp, and what you write is, again while reasonable, and over simplification and a generalization.

I can only state this as I can only speak for myself. I learned from what you wrote, I hope you can see what I write.

first, I never thought it was a hoax. I was probably one of the first people out there preparing. The ladies at my supermarket thought I was nuts. I was alone and the only person buying a full cart of nonperishables. My accountant just called me up and said, well you were right, this was way bigger than we all thought it would be. I have had multiple conversations with people where they reminded me that I told them to get prepared.

I am also still not convinced this is actually worse than a flu (please keep listening). I do agree that this is horrible and it clearly faster than the flu. But it also appears that while the flu is seasonal and apparently continues on forever, this might be something that targets the weak and moves on.

This virus is deadly, to be certain. However, given how incredibly contagious this is, it is reasonable to think it might be deadly to a select few and the masses are mostly safe. I am relatively convinced that I had this. I am pretty convinced that most people I know had this. Given that I am from NJ and the examples of how fast this spreads in a room or on a boat, it is reasonable to assume that just about everyone I know has come in contact with this in someway.

So yes, I agree this is no flu. But the flu is responsible for much sickness and much death. It is different. I am not saying Corona is a bad flu, on that I have learned better. However, while different, I am still not certain this is as bad as they make it out to be.

My biggest concern with how bad this is, is not that people are dying. It is how it is overwhelming the health care system.

I still believe that we did handle this all wrong. I still believe that there is a better way.

Many might not agree with the risks or even the losses that I am willing to take or the viewpoint I have. But I said from the beginning of this thread that Thanos had a point.

We are a plague on this planet. And this might very well be the planet culling the herd. This might very well be Mother Nature protecting herself.

I have also been saying from the beginning that I think we are going about it all wrong.

I am a team player. I will do my part and if this is the path we are taking, then I am most certainly will to everything I can...even if that is sitting at home .

And please don't misunderstand me. I am very afraid of this. I am sad about all the deaths and the sickness. I am terrified of how this will effect the ones I care about.

But life is hard and it is not fair.

so while I very much get what you are saying, and it is reasonable for you to make that connection, I also do not think it is a fair or accurate assessment. Again, only because of my own personal experience. But clearly, I fall into the camp of people you are talking to, so I figured I would respond with my own personal thoughts.

And what Blansky is saying is fair. We learn from people with different viewpoints.

I wish you and all yours safety and health through all of this.

[haven_seeker]

Well, there's bound to be people in all camps and viewpoints, so let me put this out there: While I'm not certain on the threat level of the virus itself, I think the reaction of the public and the world at large has been nothing short of hysterical on every level.

I'm not sure anything in this world is this bad that each nation has reacted to it to the level that they have.

Am I convinced of the conspiracy theory that this was all a hoax, to achieve some unidentified agenda? I'm not there yet, but I'm cynical to a fault on even the best of days, so the theory has been at the very back of my mind since the beginning calmly pawing at my synapses every so often.

I truly believe that what I've seen so far, based on my uneducated opinion and experience, that the reaction and hysteria has been worse than the virus by exponential measure.

Just one man's opinion. Please don't kill me. I wear a quartz watch, remember?

[Brew]

Which one of the refrigerator trucks waiting outside of the NYC hospitals is the "hoax"?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

So for those hanging out hope that Sweden is the smartest government in the world may be in for a surprise. Looks like their numbers are growing faster than not only Norway a country that shares its longest border but also Finland who both closed up shop. Here's a comparison of their numbers as of yesterday:

Sweden - Cases 6830 New Cases 387 Deaths 401 New Deaths 28 Death Rate 5.8%
Norway - Cases 5645 New Cases 95 Deaths 66 New Deaths 4 Death Rate 1.1%
Finland - Cases 1927 New Cases 45 Deaths 28 New Deaths 3 Death Rate 1.4%

I feel for the citizens of Sweden. Those numbers do not look good.

Stay safe.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Even with fewer folks on the roads, more people in Italy and Spain are dying than usual. And it's more than the reported COVID deaths.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...y-mystery.html

Not surprising and goes in line with what I was saying earlier:

1) The COVID 19 death rate will be higher since the dead do not get tested.
2) Those requiring medical care (non-COVID) will die as access to medical care is greatly reduced.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Brew

Which one of the refrigerator trucks waiting outside of the NYC hospitals is the "hoax"?

I haven’t seen anyone call it a hoax. If you were referring to the absolute debunked media lies from a couple of weeks ago and why should anyone take your question seriously to begin with?

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by superdog

while all that is reasonable, and I needed to look at my own progression to confirm, I do not agree. again, only because I am in that camp, and what you write is, again while reasonable, and over simplification and a generalization.

I can only state this as I can only speak for myself. I learned from what you wrote, I hope you can see what I write.

first, I never thought it was a hoax. I was probably one of the first people out there preparing. The ladies at my supermarket thought I was nuts. I was alone and the only person buying a full cart of nonperishables. My accountant just called me up and said, well you were right, this was way bigger than we all thought it would be. I have had multiple conversations with people where they reminded me that I told them to get prepared.

I am also still not convinced this is actually worse than a flu (please keep listening). I do agree that this is horrible and it clearly faster than the flu. But it also appears that while the flu is seasonal and apparently continues on forever, this might be something that targets the weak and moves on.

This virus is deadly, to be certain. However, given how incredibly contagious this is, it is reasonable to think it might be deadly to a select few and the masses are mostly safe. I am relatively convinced that I had this. I am pretty convinced that most people I know had this. Given that I am from NJ and the examples of how fast this spreads in a room or on a boat, it is reasonable to assume that just about everyone I know has come in contact with this in someway.

So yes, I agree this is no flu. But the flu is responsible for much sickness and much death. It is different. I am not saying Corona is a bad flu, on that I have learned better. However, while different, I am still not certain this is as bad as they make it out to be.

My biggest concern with how bad this is, is not that people are dying. It is how it is overwhelming the health care system.

I still believe that we did handle this all wrong. I still believe that there is a better way.

Many might not agree with the risks or even the losses that I am willing to take or the viewpoint I have. But I said from the beginning of this thread that Thanos had a point.

We are a plague on this planet. And this might very well be the planet culling the herd. This might very well be Mother Nature protecting herself.

I have also been saying from the beginning that I think we are going about it all wrong.

I am a team player. I will do my part and if this is the path we are taking, then I am most certainly will to everything I can...even if that is sitting at home .

And please don't misunderstand me. I am very afraid of this. I am sad about all the deaths and the sickness. I am terrified of how this will effect the ones I care about.

But life is hard and it is not fair.

so while I very much get what you are saying, and it is reasonable for you to make that connection, I also do not think it is a fair or accurate assessment. Again, only because of my own personal experience. But clearly, I fall into the camp of people you are talking to, so I figured I would respond with my own personal thoughts.

And what Blansky is saying is fair. We learn from people with different viewpoints.

I wish you and all yours safety and health through all of this.

Thanks Seth.

I do not want to attack anyone and I have certainly learned from many peoples viewpoint here to the extent that that they have been based on a developing views of the best evidence that we have at the moment.

To the extent that I have offended anyone, please let me apologize.

I feel that most peoples viewpoints here have evolved throughout this, including my own. This is the benefit of this discussion.

Very, very few posters have had radical viewpoints here on this forum. Most on both sides have had very reasoned arguments for their opinions and even evolved with the changing facts. Some have not and that really does frustrate me. I will be respectful, but never shy away from calling out inconsistencies. I welcome all to do the same to me as well so that my opinions can evolve as I am exposed to new facts.

I should note that, outside of this forum, I have listened to friends, neighbors and even family members express some crazy a*# stuff.

My own brother stated that medical professionals are an acceptable casualty in exchange for not shutting down the economy. Even as he realized my wife is one of those dealing with this directly.

I only hope that by me expressing my viewpoint that I can really force people to think about the factual basis for their opinions. Again, to the point that I have offended anyone, please accept my apologies.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I haven’t seen anyone call it a hoax. If you were referring to the absolute debunked media lies from a couple of weeks ago and why should anyone take your question seriously to begin with?

well, to be fair....

there was one very well known person (not getting political) that called it a hoax.

and to also be fair, a lot of people have learned a lot since that time.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by haven_seeker

Well, there's bound to be people in all camps and viewpoints, so let me put this out there: While I'm not certain on the threat level of the virus itself, I think the reaction of the public and the world at large has been nothing short of hysterical on every level.

I'm not sure anything in this world is this bad that each nation has reacted to it to the level that they have.

Am I convinced of the conspiracy theory that this was all a hoax, to achieve some unidentified agenda? I'm not there yet, but I'm cynical to a fault on even the best of days, so the theory has been at the very back of my mind since the beginning calmly pawing at my synapses every so often.

I truly believe that what I've seen so far, based on my uneducated opinion and experience, that the reaction and hysteria has been worse than the virus by exponential measure.

Just one man's opinion. Please don't kill me. I wear a quartz watch, remember?

All throughout human history the majority choose hysteria over calm. It’s just easier to be hysterical. Human beings are emotional. There’s nothing emotional about calm.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I haven’t seen anyone call it a hoax. If you were referring to the absolute debunked media lies from a couple of weeks ago and why should anyone take your question seriously to begin with?

Bring me up to speed on what you are referring to here, please.

I have always valued your viewpoint, even if I disagree but I would like to know the factual basis for your viewpoint.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

well, to be fair....

there was one very well known person (not getting political) that called it a hoax.

and to also be fair, a lot of people have learned a lot since that time.

That’s the part I said that has been debunked. He was talking about the people accusing him. He called them a hoax. It’s been reviewed over and over again.

[haven_seeker]

Originally Posted by Patton250

About nobody calling it a hoax?

Refer to my post above for mention of the term.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Bring me up to speed on what you are referring to here, please.

I have always valued your viewpoint, even if I disagree but I would like to know the factual basis for your viewpoint.

About nobody calling it a hoax?

[Brew]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I haven’t seen anyone call it a hoax. If you were referring to the absolute debunked media lies from a couple of weeks ago and why should anyone take your question seriously to begin with?

Didn't even have him in mind, but I understand why your knee jerks.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Thanks Seth.

I do not want to attack anyone and I have certainly learned from many peoples viewpoint here to the extent that that they have been based on a developing views of the best evidence that we have at the moment.

To the extent that I have offended anyone, please let me apologize.

I feel that most peoples viewpoints here have evolved throughout this, including my own. This is the benefit of this discussion.

Very, very few posters have had radical viewpoints here on this forum. Most on both sides have had very reasoned arguments for their opinions and even evolved with the changing facts. Some have not and that really does frustrate me. I will be respectful, but never shy away from calling out inconsistencies. I welcome all to do the same to me as well so that my opinions can evolve as I am exposed to new facts.

I should note that, outside of this forum, I have listened to friends, neighbors and even family members express some crazy a*# stuff.

My own brother stated that medical professionals are an acceptable casualty in exchange for not shutting down the economy. Even as he realized my wife is one of those dealing with this directly.

I only hope that by me expressing my viewpoint that I can really force people to think about the factual basis for their opinions. Again, to the point that I have offended anyone, please accept my apologies.

no sir. no apologies needed. none at all!!!

in fact, nothing but respect and appreciation for your posts, most especially this one.



and yeah, I agree there is a lot of crazy out there right now. on so many levels in so many ways. and of course a lot of emotion is tied into all this. every day I am checking in on my family. and everyday, I am checking in on friends that have this. and everyday I have people checking in on me.

its all crazy scary.

personally, this thread has gone sideways a few times. that is completely understandable. thankfully we have all kept it on track and we are still here. and for the most part it truly has been a great learning experience for many of us.

I am grateful to your contributions of that. thank you.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

All throughout human history the majority choose hysteria over calm. It’s just easier to be hysterical. Human beings are emotional. There’s nothing emotional about calm.

I do not see the current mandated responses as either hysteria or driven by hysteria anymore than our governmental responses to 9/11 or Pearl Harbor were.

Hoarding toilet paper and people demanding that brown skinned people be kicked off planes after 9/11 were hysteria, but that was more at the individual level.

Granted governments have had a long and eloquent history of occasionally over reaching, I am just not sure that this is the case here. yet.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Brew

Didn't even have him in mind, but I understand why your knee jerks.

Absolutely zero knee-jerk here just stating facts because that is the only reference I have ever seen as to calling this a hoax even though that turned out to be a total fabricated lie by the media. So are you referring to someone on this thread or in this forum of calling it a hoax?

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That’s the part I said that has been debunked. He was talking about the people accusing him. He called them a hoax. It’s been reviewed over and over again.

Gotcha! Thanks, just needed a reference point.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

I do not see the current mandated responses as either hysteria or driven by hysteria anymore than our governmental responses to 9/11 or Pearl Harbor were.

Hoarding toilet paper and people demanding that brown skinned people be kicked off planes after 9/11 were hysteria, but that was more at the individual level.

Granted governments have had a long and eloquent history of occasionally over reaching, I am just not sure that this is the case here. yet.

Fair enough. However I’m mostly referring to the media.

[Brew]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Absolutely zero knee-jerk here just stating facts because that is the only reference I have ever seen as to calling this a hoax even though that turned out to be a total fabricated lie by the media. So are you referring to someone on this thread or in this forum of calling it a hoax?

Right, just read the post right above mine. I wasn't even thinking about the president.