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Old 11 March 2020, 07:26 AM   #1441
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Originally Posted by Silvio_86 View Post
The point is that if you get it... 20% is the chance you need to stay in hospital.... 5% you need automated breathing system and oxygen.... this is the drama.... health system here in italy, as worldwide, has a limited number of beds with such instruments... so hundredths of people every day adding is not good... and then you need the machinery for at least 1 month. That's the point... Anyway still alive here in Maranello ... no virus and no fever :)
Very glad to hear you are still in good health and safe. Maranello is beautiful.

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That is not the picture I have. So far in Italy all dead were older than 65 with most of them older than 85. The younger you are, the more likely you will have mild to no symptoms, so far no one under the age of 10 has died. If you have severe health issues or smoke, then you need to be careful.

This is the opposite of the Spanish flu which mostly killed the young. It will most likely not have a large impact other than causing unneeded panic everywhere including the markets in my opinion.

Let's just ride it out until spring, the warmer weather will help a lot since winter is optimal for spreading of this type of virus. Just make sure your older relatives stay reasonably isolated if possible.
There are some doctor accounts coming from Italy that say that is a misconception and young are being impacted as well and very sick in some cases. We know that cigarette smoking will complicate matters regardless of age. I do know that cigarette smoking is still very prevalent with younger Italians.

The Spanish Flu had what experts assume to be 3 waves or variations (if not 2). First was a very mild strain (in Spanish Flu terms) that came ~ Early Fall 1918 and which hit mostly the elderly. The Later Fall into Early Spring 1919 began to see a much more aggressive strain that greatly impacted young adults ages 18 to 40 and caused significant deaths as a result. Followed by what was another wave of mild cases in later Spring 1919. It's quite possible that wave 1 and 2 were two different strains and wave 3 was a reemergence of wave 1 strain rather than a new one all together.

Regardless, we can't assume SARS-COV-2 won't continue to evolve beyond it's currently projected Strain L and S. And we can't assume then that this will only impact elderly and poor health. There is already some evidence that latter is not true.
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Old 11 March 2020, 07:31 AM   #1442
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We decided not to attend tonight’s New Jersey Devils’ hockey game. We are a little older.

I think social distancing and mass testing (happened in South Korea, not in USA so far) are winning strategies.

Wish all the best of health for my fellow watch enthusiasts and their families.
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Old 11 March 2020, 07:33 AM   #1443
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We don't know the scale of the problem because testing hasn't really started in any meaningful way. In NYC, the doctors I know are all working around the clock. And we have barely any "confirmed" cases, although they are increasing rapidly now that testing is becoming more common, though still infrequent. Also, the point is not every single bed is occupied with C19 cases, but the relevant statistic is how much excess capacity does the system have to handle these cases above and beyond the normal base case workload? My guess is most hospitals that are well run do not have a lot of spare beds or spare personnel lying around as they it is not a cost effective way to run any operation. So how much incremental capacity is there in the system compared to what the system would face with moderate outbreak? How quickly can we scale up that capacity? How can we delay the onset so that we can scale up? Lots of unknowns, and I understand the skepticism, but we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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Old 11 March 2020, 07:45 AM   #1444
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The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) has confirmed a third case of COVID-19 in Minnesota. The newest patient is an adult resident of Anoka County in the 30 to 39 age range who was likely exposed through contact with international travelers.

The unidentified patient is hospitalized in critical condition.
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Old 11 March 2020, 07:46 AM   #1445
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We don't know the scale of the problem because testing hasn't really started in any meaningful way. In NYC, the doctors I know are all working around the clock. And we have barely any "confirmed" cases, although they are increasing rapidly now that testing is becoming more common, though still infrequent. Also, the point is not every single bed is occupied with C19 cases, but the relevant statistic is how much excess capacity does the system have to handle these cases above and beyond the normal base case workload? My guess is most hospitals that are well run do not have a lot of spare beds or spare personnel lying around as they it is not a cost effective way to run any operation. So how much incremental capacity is there in the system compared to what the system would face with moderate outbreak? How quickly can we scale up that capacity? How can we delay the onset so that we can scale up? Lots of unknowns, and I understand the skepticism, but we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I think you are correct and most operate as for profit business, so they follow the similar faulty ideal of the just in time inventory delivery method that corporations in other industries do in order to increase "turnover" and supposed "profitability". I imagine all this will put pressure on many countries and industries to develop backup capacity and/or inventory and place a premium on quality of product/services rather than just in time service/product. There's certainly the argument that running lean actually deteriorates shareholder value in long-term stability in favor of short-term earnings. In other words keep pushing the ball down the course and "risk management" says look to scenario analysis and incorrectly focus on most entirely the highest probability outcome only. Using a single-factor model/solution to a multi-factor problem is really the problem and imo the biggest shareholder detriment.
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Old 11 March 2020, 07:49 AM   #1446
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Colleges and Universities are telling kids not to come back from Spring break. The semester will be completed remotely/on-line. Grinnell and Cornell, that I've seen so far.
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Old 11 March 2020, 08:05 AM   #1447
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What happens regarding cases in the US with your healthcare system? Isnít it insurance based? So what if you canít afford the care?

Is it wavered in these circumstances?


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Old 11 March 2020, 08:10 AM   #1448
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The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) has confirmed a third case of COVID-19 in Minnesota. The newest patient is an adult resident of Anoka County in the 30 to 39 age range who was likely exposed through contact with international travelers.

The unidentified patient is hospitalized in critical condition.
Wow - 30-39 age range - was it known if he had other medical complications to put him in critical condition from contacting the virus?
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Old 11 March 2020, 08:13 AM   #1449
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Yes, in the US the insurance companies are being mandated to cover the testing, etc. I’d expect they’ll have a plan in the next couple of days. As is with everything in the US healthcare system, it’s complicated. They’re dealing with the Revenue service and other areas to make sure they can cover these services for free.
WAY to complicated.
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Old 11 March 2020, 08:16 AM   #1450
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Yes, in the US the insurance companies are being mandated to cover the testing, etc. Iíd expect theyíll have a plan in the next couple of days. As is with everything in the US healthcare system, itís complicated. Theyíre dealing with the Revenue service and other areas to make sure they can cover these services for free.
WAY to complicated.


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Old 11 March 2020, 08:23 AM   #1451
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I honestly felt safer flying today than ever before. Not many people on the flight and all were dousing themselves in sanitizers. I think the fact that people are pre quarantining and that warm weather is on the horizon that this will actually get contained relatively quick. I had a pretty draconian view previously.


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Old 11 March 2020, 08:33 AM   #1452
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Yes, in the US the insurance companies are being mandated to cover the testing, etc. Iíd expect theyíll have a plan in the next couple of days. As is with everything in the US healthcare system, itís complicated. Theyíre dealing with the Revenue service and other areas to make sure they can cover these services for free.
WAY to complicated.
They are not being mandated my friend. They volunteered to. In the United States the government canít force a company to do something. At least not yet.
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Old 11 March 2020, 08:52 AM   #1453
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Colleges and Universities are telling kids not to come back from Spring break. The semester will be completed remotely/on-line. Grinnell and Cornell, that I've seen so far.
Harvard and Purdue as well.
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Old 11 March 2020, 09:10 AM   #1454
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State or federal government can’t force an insurance company to do something? Disagree completely, but yes...they were “voluntold” to handle this way. Good for them though. Increases to claims means increase to premiums which equates to bigger profit. Sadly, that’s the law post ACA ... (off the soapbox). Be healthy, all.
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Old 11 March 2020, 09:21 AM   #1455
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I am in my senior year at a large State University and there are talks that we could have online classes for a month or the rest of the term. I see that some other Universities have closed as well.
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Old 11 March 2020, 09:36 AM   #1456
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State or federal government canít force an insurance company to do something? Disagree completely, but yes...they were ďvoluntoldĒ to handle this way. Good for them though. Increases to claims means increase to premiums which equates to bigger profit. Sadly, thatís the law post ACA ... (off the soapbox). Be healthy, all.


IIRC, anytime a diagnostic code is confirmed by either exam or by testing, R&C charges can be filed with insurance that meets the minimum standards of coverage.

Now, of course, each policy carries its own copays, deductibles and reimbursement percentages for in-network vs. out of network physicians and/or facilities. Iím guessing most Americans havenít met their deductibles yet anyway - so there will be a fee even after insurance claim is processed.

Wouldnít the tests have been covered in the normal course of business?
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Old 11 March 2020, 10:23 AM   #1457
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Wow - 30-39 age range - was it known if he had other medical complications to put him in critical condition from contacting the virus?
They havenít released any other information yet. Certainly concerning.
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Old 11 March 2020, 10:27 AM   #1458
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Just got some good prices on flights from Toronto to Orlando to go home for Easter.
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Old 11 March 2020, 10:33 AM   #1459
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Wow - 30-39 age range - was it known if he had other medical complications to put him in critical condition from contacting the virus?
Just released an update. Patient is in his 30s with NO previous health conditions.
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Old 11 March 2020, 10:35 AM   #1460
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Just released an update. Patient is in his 30s with NO previous health conditions.


Going to have the occasional outlier here and there. Hate to be so blunt but that is sadly always the case...
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Old 11 March 2020, 10:56 AM   #1461
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Just got some good prices on flights from Toronto to Orlando to go home for Easter.
Be careful what you say on this thread. Although I don't blame you, it seems to upset others. A member got the boot yesterday for stating similar. I do hope the carona goes away soon though.

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Old 11 March 2020, 11:46 AM   #1462
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My niece had her DC trip canceled. She was looking forward to going.
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Old 11 March 2020, 01:03 PM   #1463
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What happens if this gets into the Rolex factory.


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Old 11 March 2020, 01:03 PM   #1464
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Wow - 30-39 age range - was it known if he had other medical complications to put him in critical condition from contacting the virus?
It was said on multiple occasions and more notably by Dr. Fauci that 25% of patients will need to be hospitalized. Some also keep throwing around the this is just the flu and only people with underlining health conditions and above 80 narrative is absolutely dangerous and asinine. How many people do you know who are in triathlon shape? Italy is in the light and the situation there is horrible. This same situation will be here. Chalk it up anyway you want but you can't sweep what's happening in Italy under the rug and keep your head in the sand. I'm not at all panicking but rather pointing out something so obvious it might as well hit you on the head. If you keep thinking it's just the flu you're putting yourself and others at risk.
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Old 11 March 2020, 01:08 PM   #1465
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I have made the decision to tune out the talking head doctors in TV studios regurgitating the same stuff over and over.

Doctors who are on the front line, actively fighting the virus, not in theory, but in practice, have my complete attention.

Here is an example from Italy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE

The healthcare system of Northern Italy, which is modern and well funded, was essentially overrun by the virus in short order, especially patients needing critical care and support.

The 6:00 mark onward really caught my attention, even more than the hosts necktie!

It was spoken from experience. First hand experience. Not speculation or agenda. Not Panicky ratings grabs...it was a very clear warning.

If you don't control the spread of the virus, it will overwhelm your healthcare system.

He's seen it and lived it.
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Old 11 March 2020, 01:27 PM   #1466
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I have made the decision to tune out the talking head doctors in TV studios regurgitating the same stuff over and over.

Doctors who are on the front line, actively fighting the virus, not in theory, but in practice, have my complete attention.

Here is an example from Italy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE

The healthcare system of Northern Italy, which is modern and well funded, was essentially overrun by the virus in short order, especially patients needing critical care and support.

The 6:00 mark onward really caught my attention, even more than the hosts necktie!

It was spoken from experience. First hand experience. Not speculation or agenda. Not Panicky ratings grabs...it was a very clear warning.

If you don't control the spread of the virus, it will overwhelm your healthcare system.

He's seen it and lived it.
Great share thank you!
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Old 11 March 2020, 02:22 PM   #1467
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What happens if this gets into the Rolex factory.
If it does, your local AD will be the safest place to be.
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Old 11 March 2020, 02:37 PM   #1468
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I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still canít understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable.

Think about this, if every one just stayed home for 2 weeks (unless hospitalization is required), the virus would run itís course and die out. Itís a lot of pain to do this but it would be short lived.


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Old 11 March 2020, 03:01 PM   #1469
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Think about this, if every one just stayed home for 2 weeks (unless hospitalization is required), the virus would run itís course and die out. Itís a lot of pain to do this but it would be short lived.


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I share the same thoughts. 2 - 3 weeks max. Everyone stays home and it dies off. Especially in high density areas. Radical but worth the try.


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Old 11 March 2020, 03:08 PM   #1470
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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I share the same thoughts. 2 - 3 weeks max. Everyone stays home and it dies off. Especially in high density areas. Radical but worth the try.


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Right, itís like ripping the band aid off quickly vs. taking 6 months. A short burst of pain (by staying home a few weeks) is better than death by a thousand cuts and this thing lasting another 6 months.


Cancel Everything

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ything/607675/

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