the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

I very much realize I am likely one of the only hold outs here. But I still think this is being over blown.

I don’t think your POV is wrong, some people on the news reports are thumping their tub, sounding the alarm, and doing so in a very scary way.

If that gets people concerned enough to:
1) wash their hands 4x more than they did before
2) cover their sneezes/coughs
3) observe social distancing

Then I’ll accept the alarms that may even be to loud.

BTW
WHO just reported that COVID-19 is a pandemic...
So maybe we can amp up more resources.


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[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by seslwr

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

Those numbers sounds close to the obesity rates


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[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Why so much greater numbers than China though?

I don’t have a lot of confidence in the information out of China.

Originally Posted by 77T

If we have an outbreak in an understaffed area, they will be overwhelmed.

I live in a relatively poor area in Minnesota with a population of 25,000 There is a small number of very wealthy lakeshore residents and a large population of people living in poverty, as well as a large, poor Native American reservation. These are people with less access to information or the luxury to isolate for weeks. Our hospital can handle five ventilator patients at a time. A serious outbreak will certainly overwhelm the healthcare system here.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

28:06:42:12

Bible verse? Infection count?

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Bible verse? Infection count?

Hey! That’s the combination to my watch safe!

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I live in a relatively poor area in Minnesota with a population of 25,000 There is a small number of very wealthy lakeshore residents and a large population of people living in poverty, as well as a large, poor Native American reservation. These are people with less access to information or the luxury to isolate for weeks. Our hospital can handle five ventilator patients at a time. A serious outbreak will certainly overwhelm the healthcare system here.

Precisely - great example of how large number theory misses the fine points at points of service.

I don’t fault anyone here for using them. But the post that I challenged yesterday, however, said all beds were apparently full in USA. That’s unhelpful rumormongering.


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[mgsooner]

Guys if you find yourself at a grocery/retail store take the time to give the employees a kind word/smile. I was at Costco earlier today and you could see it on some of their faces - this is hell for them.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by superdog

I very much realize I am likely one of the only hold outs here. But I still think this is being over blown.

Jeez, it’s like I have a long lost twin.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...190303174.html

I very much realize I am likely one of the only hold outs here. But I still think this is being over blown.

Based on the way this spreads, likely 5x (ore more) people actually have it than has been reported.

And they don't even know it.

I think it's always possible that we have predominately the less aggressive Strain S here, so let's hope Strain L doesn't become too prevalent. What i do find puzzling is the number of exchange students that would've traveled and came back to the US for 2nd semester University classes that would have been back since end of January in school, which was well after the global outbreak. You would think that even if the students don't exhibit severe illnesses by now that we would at minimum be getting reports of older faculty and staff at Universities getting very sick by now or contracting. Then the interstate air travel as well and incoming international flights, even if only connections would've been very common in NYC, Atlanta, Chicago, and LA with all being hubs. Perhaps it is only Strain S that is prevalent so far.

[coffeebreak]

Originally Posted by seslwr

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

[TheVTCGuy]

I read today on Apple News, and maybe I am mistaken, please feel free to point out if I am, but from what I understand, the death rate of Corona is 3 ish per 1,000. The death rate of regular influenza is between 1 and 2 per 1,000. Now, this is a serious virus we all need to take steps to protect ourselves and our family etc. But, closing down countries? Seems a little extreme.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by coffeebreak

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

“In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes"


“Corona is just this year's candy pink stove.”


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I read today on Apple News, and maybe I am mistaken, please feel free to point out if I am, but from what I understand, the death rate of Corona is 3 ish per 1,000. The death rate of regular influenza is between 1 and 2 per 1,000. Now, this is a serious virus we all need to take steps to protect ourselves and our family etc. But, closing down countries? Seems a little extreme.

Mortality rate of flu is usually much lower than that of COVID, think 0.2 to 0.3% unless in a severe risk group, such as those recommended to get flu shots. Then the mortality rate can approach upwards of 6% in some cases and conditions.

SARS-COV-1 had a mortality rate of 10%, so I'm not so convinced this is as low as portrayed. So far SARS-COV-2 would have an implied mortality rate of 2-3%, which would be 20 to 30 deaths per 1000 infections. In reality there may be less cases reported and unidentified so that the denominator could be much greater than currently implied, which could mean a lower mortality rate.

The real problem is concurrent infections that may result in an additional risk for viral or secondary bacterial pneumonia infections.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

I don’t think your POV is wrong, some people on the news reports are thumping their tub, sounding the alarm, and doing so in a very scary way.

If that gets people concerned enough to:
1) wash their hands 4x more than they did before
2) cover their sneezes/coughs
3) observe social distancing

Then I’ll accept the alarms that may even be to loud.

BTW
WHO just reported that COVID-19 is a pandemic...
So maybe we can amp up more resources.


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Agree. It’s great that it reinforces 1,2 & 3.

But there are a lot of other factors that are also created. Unnecessary trips to the medical facilities (therefore overwhelming them), market sell offs, lay offs, and paranoia just to make a few.

I agree with closing all the large events. I agree with working from home when possible.

I don’t agree with the mass hysteria. This very thread has a mention of “end of days”.

Some people thrive on panic, and misery. And this scenario bring them out in droves.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Guys if you find yourself at a grocery/retail store take the time to give the employees a kind word/smile. \

I did just that (with a kind thank you) going to Walmart today for my 2nd round of supplies. I can't imagine. Not much TP for the record, btw.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Jeez, it’s like I have a long lost twin.

You guys need a high 5 emoji

[superdog]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Jeez, it’s like I have a long lost twin.

ha. but we knew this!!!!

[77T]

Seth
Quoting you in segments

“Unnecessary trips to the medical facilities (therefore overwhelming them), “

—- True, and only a minority will need hospitalization. This clods the system for other critical caseload in ER’s.



“market sell offs, lay offs, and paranoia just to make a few. “

—— haven’t seen the mass layoffs yet but furloughs are taking place. In the Markets, if you persevere, and don’t sell, you’ll not lose a $. But only time will tell if this harkens to a new economic reality.



“I agree with closing all the large events. I agree with working from home when possible. “

—— I dwell in Motorsports most weekends. Thus far we, FIA and NASCAR are keeping to the schedule. I’m a small voice in that pond. Each has its own coronavirus statement. But they only said stay home if you’re ill. Should’ve also said “if you’ve traveled to Europe/Asia” to be a bit more inclusive.
(I have written our leadership to include this - 12 Hours of Sebring is the next risk with all the international drivers entered)


“I don’t agree with the mass hysteria. This very thread has a mention of “end of days”. “

—— Many are showing their underlying reactions to stress, fear, uncertainty and doubt.







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[superdog]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Guys if you find yourself at a grocery/retail store take the time to give the employees a kind word/smile. I was at Costco earlier today and you could see it on some of their faces - this is hell for them.

I agree. Great point/post.

Truth is though, I do this with everyone. Every day.

[THC]

[77T]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Guys if you find yourself at a grocery/retail store take the time to give the employees a kind word/smile. I was at Costco earlier today and you could see it on some of their faces - this is hell for them.

Costco & Walmart have been slammed - about the same as their peak holiday crowds. I agree they’re stressed - prolly more by the concern that the next customer could be a walking coronavirus doppelgänger of “Typhoid Mary”..


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I read today on Apple News, and maybe I am mistaken, please feel free to point out if I am, but from what I understand, the death rate of Corona is 3 ish per 1,000. The death rate of regular influenza is between 1 and 2 per 1,000. Now, this is a serious virus we all need to take steps to protect ourselves and our family etc. But, closing down countries? Seems a little extreme.

Paul, flu is .1% to .2%.

[SMD]

According to CDC, about 5,000 people have been tested and over 1,000 infected (based on that testing). Fauci this morning is 10x more lethal than flu, no vaccine, no immunity. Only have the ability to conduct about 16,000 tests per day (both public and private labs). We simply have no idea how bad this will be but most certainly cannot say its contained when so little testing has been done and the capacity to do wide spread testing does not exist.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I read today on Apple News, and maybe I am mistaken, please feel free to point out if I am, but from what I understand, the death rate of Corona is 3 ish per 1,000. The death rate of regular influenza is between 1 and 2 per 1,000. Now, this is a serious virus we all need to take steps to protect ourselves and our family etc. But, closing down countries? Seems a little extreme.

Math is not close to correct.

[Zakalwe]

I am very curious to see how the public reacts in the coming days and weeks. As a primary care physician, my main concern has been that people will inundate us with minor illnesses out of fear of being infected with COVID-19, thus potentially causing more harm through overloading the system than the actual infection itself.

My experience in the last three days has been the opposite; it's been the quietest (note: a relative term) three days at the surgery since last Summer. Anecdotally it appears that people are keeping themselves away from us, presumably to reduce their risk of coming into contact with the virus.

The calm before the storm, perhaps.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Paul, flu is .1% to .2%.

That’s what 1-2 per thousand equals; .1-.2%, right?


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[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Bible verse? Infection count?

donnie darko rabbit eow 28 days 6 hours 42 min 12 seconds

[037]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I am very curious to see how the public reacts in the coming days and weeks. As a primary care physician, my main concern has been that people will inundate us with minor illnesses out of fear of being infected with COVID-19, thus potentially causing more harm through overloading the system than the actual infection itself.

My experience in the last three days has been the opposite; it's been the quietest (note: a relative term) three days at the surgery since last Summer. Anecdotally it appears that people are keeping themselves away from us, presumably to reduce their risk of coming into contact with the virus.

The calm before the storm, perhaps.

Agreed. Seasonal allergies are right around the corner so you might start seeing more numbers once more pollen is in the air.

[gmh1013]

I see a food shortage and buying lots of canned goods and stuff Just in case.....I have 28 days food supply from hurricane worry and some water....plus im ordering food for pets

[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by 77T

Costco & Walmart has been slammed - about the same as their peak holiday crowds. I agree they’re stressed - prolly more by the concern that the next customer could be a walking coronavirus doppelgänger of “Typhoid Mary”..

Yes, can you imagine having to handle cash/credit cards given to you by others all day long right now? I sure as hell wouldn't want that job.

I honestly wonder if stores will start to institute a no cash policy, if that is even feasible. They have the card machines now that the purchaser inserts the card themselves and the cashier never has to touch it.

There are undoubtedly lots of changes in the way we live life on the way.