the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

I read 20 percent unemployment ???WTH thats getting up to great depression level.
My best guess would be 13-14 percent ....the highest I have ever seen was right after Ronnie took office it hit 11 percent in Nov/ Dec of 81 if I remember right but 20 is unbelievable?

Two words.......TEMPORARY......HOPEFULLY....

Originally Posted by Dawg2

We are setting up to make the great depression look like a recession.

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I can see a glass half empty person agreeing with this......so far....I’m not...

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

I read 20 percent unemployment ???WTH thats getting up to great depression level.
My best guess would be 13-14 percent ....the highest I have ever seen was right after Ronnie took office it hit 11 percent in Nov/ Dec of 81 if I remember right but 20 is unbelievable?

Mnuchin stated that as a hypothetical, while briefing senators, if nothing was done on the stimulus package. One way to put pressure on those who may be reluctant I'd guess.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

As I wrote earlier, even from an optics point of view, when you see footage of the HK response, it looks very reassuring to the public.

Everybody in a responding role has uniformity in their equipment and they are actively disinfecting places, testing, taking temps.


SARS was actually 17yrs ago, so for that muscle memory to still be in place is damn impressive.

I agree, the optics are better there. But their society is more uniform than ours overall. To respond like HK did, we'd have to be a different society. As for SARS, my point is that HK gov't already had pandemic protocols in place.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

I read 20 percent unemployment ???WTH thats getting up to great depression level.
My best guess would be 13-14 percent ....the highest I have ever seen was right after Ronnie took office it hit 11 percent in Nov/ Dec of 81 if I remember right but 20 is unbelievable?

It might hit that for a moment in time as the service and hospitality sector will get hammered...it's going to very difficult.

That will be backed up with the cascading layoffs in different sectors stemming from S&H downturn...

But then you will have the mean and nasty "me too" layoffs. Corporations who are cash rich and can float, but won't because they have to maintain shareholder value, which will be buoyed by layoffs to show Wall Street that they are taking steps to solidify their profitability.

This is 2001 again, but worse as the duration of the shutdown will be longer and more widespread.

This will be interesting to see if there are kinder and gentler corporate reactions than there were 19yrs ago.

I fully understand that businesses
DO NOT exist to solely provide employment for people but the circumstances behind this and the vibes of benevolence stemming from some companies might lead to a different outcome for employees.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

We are setting up to make the great depression look like a recession.

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It’s going to be the end of everything we know.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by superdog

It’s going to be the end of everything we know.

Superdog, you’re going through it right now. Hang in there, man

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

If businesses are closed, workers unpaid, how do people buy or pay for things? A $1000 check from the government doesn’t solve much. Most people live paycheck to paycheck. This looks bad.

Its looks close to apocalyptic if we have 20 percent unemployment rate...i have S.S. but still worried...unemployment checks are what 300 a week ?....nobody can live on that in a country that lives paycheck to paycheck.

[gmh1013]

Its the end of the world as we know it .....but i dont feel fine!

[TheVTCGuy]

May I suggest we all come in off the ledge for a few minutes? Yes, things may get bad, or they may not get as bad as some predict. I’ll take all the precautions I can, be prepared as I can, but not ready to barricade myself in my house with a hoarding of defensive items and toilet paper quite yet. Let’s all hope for the best.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Two words.......TEMPORARY......HOPEFULLY....







I can see a glass half empty person agreeing with this......so far....I’m not...

I am normally a glass half full person. But in this case I see serious prescription meds shortages, food distribution interruptions, massive mortgage defaults, credit card collapse, etc.

Global trade is in a serious disruption and depending on how long this lasts, economic ramifications could be catastrophic.

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[Letsgodiving]

US and Canada to suspend non-essential travel.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/polit...vel/index.html

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Anyone else dealing with the situation by purchasing (non-essential) things?

Great job doing your part! At least that's what I'm telling myself with three incomings and my first 5-figure wallet purchase over the past week. I'm not giving up dammit.

My wife thinks I'm an idiot, but what's new?

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Great job doing your part! At least that's what I'm telling myself with three incomings and my first 5-figure wallet purchase over the past week. I'm not giving up dammit.

My wife thinks I'm an idiot, but what's new?

Nothing wrong with retail therapy!

[DJ39]

I have not checked this thread in Two days and you guys are talking about the apocalypse.

All this is going to turn around, whatever does not kill you makes you stronger.

Hang tough


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Great job doing your part! At least that's what I'm telling myself with three incomings and my first 5-figure wallet purchase over the past week. I'm not giving up dammit.

My wife thinks I'm an idiot, but what's new?

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Nothing wrong with retail therapy!

Originally Posted by DJ39

I have not checked this thread in Two days and you guys are talking about the apocalypse.

All this is going to turn around, whatever does not kill you makes you stronger.

Hang tough


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Thank you,

Thank you, and

THANK YOU.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by DJ39

I have not checked this thread in Two days and you guys are talking about the apocalypse.

All this is going to turn around, whatever does not kill you makes you stronger.

Hang tough


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Exactly

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree with you 100% on that. Everything should shut down in North America

Guys I am not ready to burn out Cities to the ground, this is the greatest country on earth. We we will endure and we will prosper. God bless America.


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[Recondope]

Originally Posted by DJ39

Guys I am not ready to burn out Cities to the ground, this is the greatest country on earth. We we will endure and we will prosper. God bless America.


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by DJ39

Guys I am not ready to burn out Cities to the ground, this is the greatest country on earth. We we will endure and we will prosper. God bless America.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by DJ39

I have not checked this thread in Two days and you guys are talking about the apocalypse.

I think that’s an over simplification of the discussions.

Maybe 2-5% Clueless posts
Another 2-5% GloomDoomers

The rest have been sharing perspectives from recent events.



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[gtnator]

Would you let a contractor/repair man into your house to fix an annoying problem (but not critical) with an appliance? I feel like it’s either this week, or hold and not for another 6 months.


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[fastmd]

Originally Posted by superdog

It’s going to be the end of everything we know.

Seth, give me a call tomorrow. I have been on almost 24hrs trying to do my part. You know I have offices/plants all over the world and in all these hot zones and got the first reports beginning of Dec from staff in Wuhan.

I am fortunate to have direct lines to all these agencies/banks. A report just came out tonight that is sobering, but shows the light at the end.

It’s not the end, but a good wake up call. We had protocols in place at one time at the government level(FDA/NIH/CDC) but they were sent to long term storage.

Many large businesses(large cap, with manageable leverage/no debt) are more solid than the general population understands. Stress tests have been run and are being run by most CFOs at major companies. The ones in trouble will be very evident shortly. All my CEO/COO colleagues at major companies, non-energy,hospitality/utilities are confident and have the same holdfast mentality.

It’s painful to watch, as wealth gets lost and shifted. I know it’s difficult when the man who made the most money in 2008 during the financial crisis asked me when I think it will end.

I will send you a text in the am.

But we will be ok, the world will be different, people will be lost, people will need our help, but we are going to come out of this.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Let’s be South Korea, Singapore, South Korea. We need more tests, more social distancing, more hospital beds and more ventilators.

Don't forget Taiwan. Taiwan actually had this under control better than any other country but it's grossly under reported. The faster we can get things under control the faster we can get back to normal.

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by fastmd

Seth, give me a call tomorrow. I have been on almost 24hrs trying to do my part. You know I have offices/plants all over the world and in all these hot zones and got the first reports beginning of Dec from staff in Wuhan.



I am fortunate to have direct lines to all these agencies/banks. A report just came out tonight that is sobering, but shows the light at the end.



It’s not the end, but a good wake up call. We had protocols in place at one time at the government level(FDA/NIH/CDC) but they were sent to long term storage.



Many large businesses(large cap, with manageable leverage/no debt) are more solid than the general population understands. Stress tests have been run and are being run by most CFOs at major companies. The ones in trouble will be very evident shortly. All my CEO/COO colleagues at major companies, non-energy,hospitality/utilities are confident and have the same holdfast mentality.



It’s painful to watch, as wealth gets lost and shifted. I know it’s difficult when the man who made the most money in 2008 during the financial crisis asked me when I think it will end.



I will send you a text in the am.



But we will be ok, the world will be different, people will be lost, people will need our help, but we are going to come out of this.

Out of curiosity was this the Imperial College response team report that was published yesterday?

Posting the link below for anyone’s benefit that missed this earlier:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf


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[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Let’s be South Korea, Singapore, South Korea. We need more tests, more social distancing, more hospital beds and more ventilators.

Singapore does not do as many testing as South Korea, but the health ministry here is totally obsessed with finding out the sources of all the infections, where they have been to, and linking them together (clustering). There is a team from the health ministry who perform "contact tracing" on these individuals who were infected, and who they have been in contact with, asking them very detailed questions on their whereabouts with beginning and ending timing 2 weeks before they become symptomatic. All close contacts of infected individuals will be issued quarantine orders or stay-home-notice for 14 days regardless how many people are involved. Key approach here is early identification and early quarantine before possible infected individuals spread the virus to more people.

Re Korea, I am in awe of their tenacity to test so widely across their country. This gives a great level of assurance and confidence to the people, and in a certain way, reduce anxiety on the population, particularly on an "invisible enemy".

Originally Posted by RWH

Don't forget Taiwan. Taiwan actually had this under control better than any other country but it's grossly under reported. The faster we can get things under control the faster we can get back to normal.

Absolutely.

Taiwan is very impressive. In addition to those lessons learnt during SARS, the Taiwanese have historically been very conscious about wearing masks in public places when they don't feel well. It is like a practice ingrained in their mind since young. They are also very hygienic in their day-to-day. I believe this further controls the transmission of the coronavirus. However, I acknowledge this is not a widespread practice across the globe, as in certain cultures, wearing masks could be seen as ill.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

They closed our community gym and fitness is important to me, so I just bought a slam ball and will be taking that with me everywhere I go.

I went for a run this morning and had to use the children's playground to do pull-ups and other things. Heavy washing of hands after, of course.

You mean before? Of course?

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Would you let a contractor/repair man into your house to fix an annoying problem (but not critical) with an appliance? I feel like it’s either this week, or hold and not for another 6 months.


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Exactly: I have something set up for Friday morning and this was my logic. Starting to reconsider even that...


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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by clock

This was sent to me, hopefully helpful:


We are following the evolving situation very closely and I would like to make the following points for our patients and staff so that we have a better understanding of this disease process and to avoid also unnecessary measures or anxiety. Symptoms: Greater than 95% of patients have a fever Sore throat and dry cough: A productive cough is less likely to be COVID-19. Myalgias, and in less than 10% of patients, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea. Shortness of breath: This is extremely important. It occurs in patients in the later stages, and carries a very poor prognosis. It means that there is early ARDS. The main pathology is atelectasis and alveolar plugging, resulting in severe hypoxemia and respiratory failure. However many patients who are not subjectively dyspneic, have revealed CT scan appearances of atelectasis, bilateral infiltrates, interstitial changes, and these patients need to be monitored extremely closely in a hospital setting. Majority of the patient's, greater than 90%, may have mild symptoms at best, some fever, myalgias, sore throat, cough, and atypical viral course. Just like influenza, or respiratory syncytial virus, and other forms of viral disease, the course is rather benign. For young, healthy individuals, the distressing aspect is the social isolation and economic impact and inconvenience more than the actual illness itself that is a problem A major distinguishing point between a regular upper respiratory infection and COVID-19, is a runny nose, productive cough, because these are more suggestive of a regular upper respiratory infection. It is also flu season still, so when a patient presents to the office with these symptoms, you will need to become educated to try to clinically distinguish the 2 syndromes. Shortness of breath is a major problem with COVID-19. The examination of the lungs will reveal crackles, consistent with a interstitial pneumonia, and a CT scan is the most helpful test together with a chest x-ray. CONTACT: With somebody who has definitive COVID-19, means bodily contact, coming within 6 feet of each other, spending more than an hour with that person, means that you are now a person of interest. If someone comes in contact with the definitive case, they need to be quarantined for 14 days, looking for symptoms of COVID-19. They should be sent home and told to stay home, monitor symptoms, report ANY SHORTNESS of breath. This is where telemedicine is going to be helpful. Here at CVI, we are working on a telemedicine program. Coming into contact with somebody who thinks they have COVID-19, is not contact. POSSIBLE exposure: Traveling from a COVID-19 area, recent international travel, requires a voluntary home quarantine for up to 14 days. VIRAL SHEDDING: Means infectivity, starts 2 days prior to symptoms and continue so long as you have the symptoms, usually 14 days Overall mortality: 6%, but highest in patients who are over the age of 60 and who have underlying cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, renal failure and poor immunity. It takes a very benign course in the younger populations. TESTS: The nasal swab is going to become more available as of this week, but, I am told that only 1000 samples can be processed by Quest and Labcor on a daily basis so we will try to get some swabs into our office. Whom will we swab? Patients at high risk from EXPOSURE, WITH symptoms. It is currently recommended that asymptomatic patients should not be swabbed. However special circumstances, for example President Trump, had it done to reassure the population even though he was asymptomatic. In China, of all the patients who were swabbed for suspected COVID-19 and upper respiratory infections, only 4% were positive for COVID-19. This tells you that most patients with upper respiratory infections have NON-COVID-19 illness. This is very reassuring. Then, of all patients were positive, a small minority develop serious disease, 6% mortality, but majority of the patient's recover as they would from any other viral disease. The testing is going to become more available, and in particular, a drive through program in the parking lots of Walmart, target, CVS, will become available for some patients. As I have said, in asymptomatic patient with possible exposure, we will refer them to 1 of these places to get the test done. The test result may take 24-48 hours to return. More rapid point of care testing swabs are in development but they going to take many months. VACCINATION: This is a long way away, but in the meantime, it is my opinion that the majority of the population of the United States is going to develop herd immunity via exposure. The current containment is not going to be effective to contain and eradicate the virus. The current measures of social isolation is simply going to spread out the cases over a longer period of time, so as not to overwhelm the health care system with sick patients. Without the current measures, the rapid exposure to COVID-19 and resultant severe pulmonary disease will overwhelm the current healthcare system. We do not have the capacity to double the ICU beds at this time. Once herd immunity is in place, there will be serological tests in the future which we do not have currently, which will confirm past exposure and immunity. (Although a questiontill over the longevity of immunity and risk of reinfection). PREVENTION: It is mostly spread through coughing, sneezing, close contacts such as touching, shaking hands, touching an object or surface with the virus on it and then transmitting HTR nose or mouth or eyes. Wash your hands often for 20 seconds with soap and water. You can use an alcohol based hand sanitizer is warm. This is important after every contact. Do not touch eyes nose or mouth. Do not come in contact with sick people. If you are sick, cover up the cough or sneeze with a tissue, and then throw it away. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces such as computer keyboard, tabletops, pens, handrails and other surfaces that are touched by others. Keep your hands to self. Keep a 6 feet distance from others. Avoid traveling. Avoid gatherings such as concerts parades festivals sporting events. NUTRITIONAL: A strong immune system is a strong defense. A week or immune system accounts for the mortality in elderly patients, and patients with underlying predisposing factors example diabetes, heart failure, liver disease, renal failure. To boost your immunity, I have always recommended a low sugar, non-processed, low carbohydrate, no omega 6 processed oil consumption diet. Vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, magnesium, fish oil are important supplements. Garlic, sprouted broccoli, spinach, cruciferous vegetables, yogurt, turmeric, almonds, ginger, Kale, papaya, citrus fruits, green tea, Kefir, are all excellent foods to boost immunity. Lastly, time restricted feeding and intermittent fasting have been shown to improve immune function in many studies. Do not snack. Daily exercise at home is essential. 7 hours sleep a day is essential. Consumption of water as the best beverage cannot be over emphasized. Dehydration allows viruses to penetrate the cell membrane more easily. Discontinuation of antiestrogens, and testosterone supplementation, may be an important issue, and more information on this is coming out. Need to speak to your provider about this. PSYCHOLOGICAL well-being: It is time to be sensible and not overreact emotionally. This is NOT a deadly virus for the majority, and the mortality of 6% is predominantly composed of people over the age of 60 with underlying health problems. The lesson to learn here is that even if you over 60, if you have invested in healthcare, taking care of what you eat and drink and how you live physically and emotionally, you can be a healthy octogenarian with a good immune system. This disease is deadly for those who have a poor immune system. The virus is definitely going to go through the population. The death rates are going to be in the elderly and weak patients. The current social isolation is recommended so as not to overwhelm the health care system, but is unlikely to stop the virus from spreading. Economy: Without a work force, the economy is certainly going to suffer. Therefore, we need to appreciate our jobs, work hard for job security, adjust to the requirements, and be frugal. The economy will improve again, with newer visions, and self-sufficiency. I estimate at least a 6 month time for recovery.
Stay healthy, be well,
Sincerely,
Cardiovascular Interventions

That’s helpful, loads of seasonal colds still around, my nose has been like a tap for weeks. No fever or continuous dry cough which is what we are going by.

Not helping that it’s rained in the U.K. for about 4 months non-stop.


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[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by directioneng

You mean before? Of course?

Before and after would be good!

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

I think that’s an over simplification of the discussions.

Maybe 2-5% Clueless posts
Another 2-5% GloomDoomers

The rest have been sharing perspectives from recent events.



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Absolutely agree.