the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[AS1]

Originally Posted by Seibei

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Not sure where they get those numbers from. Every Italian newspaper reports the new data every day around this time. It is 2,648 new cases today and the trend has stabilized.

The sites are not in English but for example this clearly shows the new case numbers for today: https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coro...-marzo-ADez1DE

[77T]

Originally Posted by Seibei

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just as info, that website is not source data, they are using an algorithm. It’s a nice looking dashboard. If it helps people take the situation more seriously then there’s value in that.

I’m not saying people are wrong in believing it - just that their algorithm has been overshooting actual WHO reports.


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[Seibei]

Let's keep it real.

"The number of people dying from coronavirus in Italy has risen by 475 in one day to nearly 3,000 - the biggest increase since the outbreak."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51952712

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Seibei

"Following UK health advice, Soryl called emergency services – about three times before she managed to get through. She gave her details, and symptoms.

"They essentially said you just need to stay at home, there's nothing we can do.

To be fair, if you strip out the emotion, the advice given is absolutely correct: if you’re not ill enough to require hospital treatment, there isn’t anything anybody can do and you should be staying at home.

Originally Posted by Seibei

They are not testing, there is nothing they can do, stay at home and we hope you don't die is essentially the message from UK health care which is clearly overwhelmed. People like this are not going to appear on official statistics for Corona virus cases.

As a Londoner, a primary care physician and having several close friends working as consultant physicians in central London hospitals who I’m speaking to on a daily basis I can tell you categorically the health service in London is NOT overwhelmed. It is absolutely possible that it could be in due course; nobody knows how this thing is going to play out. But at the moment, it’s functioning as it should be.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by AS1

Not sure where they get those numbers from. Every Italian newspaper reports the new data every day around this time. It is 2,648 new cases today and the trend has stabilized.

The sites are not in English but for example this clearly shows the new case numbers for today: https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coro...-marzo-ADez1DE

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coro...-marzo-ADez1DE

"Coronavirus, latest news: in Italy 2,648 new cases, +1,084 healed and +475 victims, new record"

Yes, that is the headline and it is probably under reported.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

As a Londoner, a primary care physician and having several close friends working as consultant physicians in central London hospitals who I’m speaking to on a daily basis I can tell you categorically the health service in London is NOT overwhelmed. It is absolutely possible that it could be in due course; nobody knows how this thing is going to play out. But at the moment, it’s functioning as it should be.

Not being able to test and not being able to look after patients = overwhelmed in my book and certainly not functioning as it should be. What kind of standards do these people hold the UK health system to anyway?

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Not being able to test and not being able to look after patients = overwhelmed in my book and certainly not functioning as it should be. What kind of standards do these people hold the UK health system to anyway?

I think expecting most countries to have the capacity to test literally everybody displaying symptoms of a respiratory tract infection - in March in the U.K. that amounts to millions of people at any one time - for a novel infection that is three months old is not realistic.

I don’t recognise “not being able to look after patients”. I’m not sure what you expect a health service to do about people experiencing viral RTI’s that have no known cure who are well enough to stay at home. Sick people are being seen in hospital as they should be.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Not being able to test and not being able to look after patients = overwhelmed in my book and certainly not functioning as it should be. What kind of standards do these people hold the UK health system to anyway?

In the past 30 minutes you posted 3 different links to 3 different sets of numbers.

Can you help us understand the benefit of doing that? Not an attack, just not clear what you’re saying by those posts.


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[fmc000]

Originally Posted by AS1

Not sure where this data is from. There were 2,648 new cases today. The trend of new cases is showing stabilization. This is welcome news.

These numbers are correct.

Today we had 2648 new cases and 475 new deaths. We have now 2257 people that are in intensive care facilities. On the positive side 1084 people recovered.

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[77T]

Originally Posted by fmc000

These numbers are correct.

Today we had 2648 new cases and 475 new deaths. We have now 2257 people that are in intensive care facilities. On the positive side 1084 people recovered.

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The 1084 recovered in the hospital?
Or is that overall including those who are at home?


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[seslwr]

What everyone needs to understand is the concept of exponential growth. How it relates to Covid-19 is explained in the linked video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBl...&index=31&t=1s

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by c41006

Hmm I had a coworker cancel his FL trip this week due to the beaches being closed. I guess they aren’t closed?

This picture is a prime example of people not following the request that they voluntarily engage in social distancing and put the good of others over their own short term self interest.

Stay safe.

[snowgoat]

It is likely that cognitive bias is an influence on general population behaviour and risk perception in regard to covid. We are all susceptible to it. The temptation to extrapolate from our experience of viral illnesses which are familiar is high. Unfortunately the stark reality requires some trust in the experience of those caught in the maelstrom. As a medic of seniority watching the growth of cases and knowing the system limitations I am anxious for the first time in my career. I am not alone as my peers are all reporting the same and as a body we are generally an unflappable bunch. I have read many of TRF covid postings and note the language used - terms such as overblown..... hyperbole. I suggest that biases in have clouded clear thinking and positive action, and have delayed the necessary political interventions to enact effective social isolation.

I hope sincerely that this will prove to be a storm which passes quickly but if it breaks bad there will be an awfully high mortality simply because the numbers will overwhelm.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I’m the one in the Speedo

Nice try Paul.

You are the one with the black fin coming in from the 7:00 position.

Cue Jaws anyone?

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by seslwr

What everyone needs to understand is the concept of exponential growth. How it relates to Covid-19 is explained in the linked video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBl...&index=31&t=1s

Been watching that channel for 4+ years now, good stuff. His explanation was very clear as always

[Blansky]

.

[037]

Originally Posted by seslwr

What everyone needs to understand is the concept of exponential growth. How it relates to Covid-19 is explained in the linked video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBl...&index=31&t=1s

Originally Posted by SearChart

Been watching that channel for 4+ years now, good stuff. His explanation was very clear as always

I wish our media were as clear and concise as this.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by 77T

Hi Joey - can you post a link to that photo?

It was posted on the WFLA TV news Tampa website about the Pinellas-Clearwater beaches staying open.

Florida beaches remain open and packed

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by seslwr

What everyone needs to understand is the concept of exponential growth. How it relates to Covid-19 is explained in the linked video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBl...&index=31&t=1s

It doesn't get any more straightforward than that, thanks for the link.

The takeaway is that epidemics/pandemics never seem bad until all of a sudden, they are out of control. I still feel that we are underreacting as a nation, and I'm glad to see that some states have stepped up to the plate to aggressively deal with this.

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.” – Michael Leavitt

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Blansky

.

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by 77T

The 1084 recovered in the hospital?
Or is that overall including those who are at home?


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Both, people officially declared "virus free".

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[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

It was posted on the WFLA TV news Tampa website about the Pinellas-Clearwater beaches staying open.



Florida beaches remain open and packed

Thanks much. That scene will likely change if the County enforces the Governor’s order. But it is what it is.

Those are the future decision makers who will tackle the next pandemic - and complain about their yet to be born next generation who party during that crisis.




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[Blansky]

Well, here’s a different take on things:

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...virus-measures

[Moggo]

I have a question for any U.K. experts....

If we are only testing people exhibiting symptoms who require hospital treatment how did 53000 of the 56000 test negative?! What did they all have?

Just seasonal colds and/or flu? I’m puzzled by these stats. Did they go to hospital for a runny nose?!


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[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by Blansky

Well, here’s a different take on things:

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...virus-measures

I sincerely hope they are protected by the bubble they are living in.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I have a question for any U.K. experts....

If we are only testing people exhibiting symptoms who require hospital treatment how did 53000 of the 56000 test negative?! What did they all have?

Just seasonal colds and/or flu? I’m puzzled by these stats. Did they go to hospital for a runny nose?!


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A decent chunk of those tests were done before the testing guidelines changed - when we were testing people in the community, who weren’t necessarily very unwell, who had come into contact with it.

Otherwise, in any normal year, pneumonia kills something like 30000 people annually in the U.K. and is a very common presentation/complication in hospitals. The symptoms are broadly the same as COVID-19. Lots of people testing negative for it in hospital will have had pneumonia caused by other pathogens.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

A decent chunk of those tests were done before the testing guidelines changed - when we were testing people in the community, who weren’t necessarily very unwell, who had come into contact with it.

Otherwise, in any normal year, pneumonia kills something like 30000 people annually in the U.K. and is a very common presentation/complication in hospitals. The symptoms are broadly the same as COVID-19. Lots of people testing negative for it in hospital will have had pneumonia caused by other pathogens.

Thank you


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Blansky

Well, here’s a different take on things:

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...virus-measures

Certainly a lens on how fragile the cerebral constitution of those workers must be. “Soul stealing”?

Have we an entire generation of fragile socially co-dependent employees?

And don’t get me started on Musk!


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[statsman]

I have been following the stats diligently. Russia’s data is a big problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020...emic_in_Russia

They are mainly counting people who were diagnosed outside of Russia, as if there were no contractions happening within Russia. At this point, that is criminally inexcusable. Russia has the worst kind of situation- one where they not only don’t know what they have, but refuse to find out.

I emailed my senator and asked him to contact the CDC. We need a travel ban to and from Russia. Look- little Norway has 1,500 cases and we’re supposed to believe that great big Russia has only 150?

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by statsman

I have been following the stats diligently. Russia’s data is a big problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020...emic_in_Russia

They are mainly counting people who were diagnosed outside of Russia, as if there were no contractions happening within Russia. At this point, that is criminally inexcusable. Russia has the worst kind of situation- one where they not only don’t know what they have, but refuse to find out.

I emailed my senator and asked him to contact the CDC. We need a travel ban to and from Russia. Look- little Norway has 1,500 cases and we’re supposed to believe that great big Russia has only 150?

Username checks out...feel like I should trust this guy. Oh and 8525 cases in US now.