When and where will it stop?

[lapince]

Since some time we have seen a huge increase in 5711 prices, and the 5712 seems to be following the same path, prices are increasingly strong. Do you think rhis trend will continue, either go up or stay stable, or will this stop and get back to normal prices some day soon? For the Daytona C I am sure prices will drop, sure they will be a little more than retail, but not such huge difference. When I see prices for 5711/12, I think how is it possible that there are people willing to pay up to 10 grand more than retail, just nuts, happy as I have both, and no intention to sell, but I would not have paid grey dealer prices for unworn on these 2, maybe a few k more, but 10? Never.

What do you guys think?

[texex91]

Originally Posted by lapince

Since some time we have seen a huge increase in 5711 prices, and the 5712 seems to be following the same path, prices are increasingly strong. Do you think rhis trend will continue, either go up or stay stable, or will this stop and get back to normal prices some day soon? For the Daytona C I am sure prices will drop, sure they will be a little more than retail, but not such huge difference. When I see prices for 5711/12, I think how is it possible that there are people willing to pay up to 10 grand more than retail, just nuts, happy as I have both, and no intention to sell, but I would not have paid grey dealer prices for unworn on these 2, maybe a few k more, but 10? Never.

What do you guys think?

Don't know anyone who has or would pay $10k over. One can ask whatever they want, what they are actually selling for is another thing.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by texex91

Don't know anyone who has or would pay $10k over. One can ask whatever they want, what they are actually selling for is another thing.

Well I agree, but many if not most 5711's, are 7-10k over. And I also don't know anyone who would, but maybe some people have desire to not wait even 2 months, have a ton of cash and don't care. My business is real estate, sometimes you have people selling for 50% over market, but it's a minority, when you look at 5711/12 prices, it's way over retail, so don't think they don't sell if all dealers put these prices. Would be interesting to see if they would be ok to sell for only 2-3k over market, for thev5711, but doubt they will, it is the hottest most in demand piece in SS, with the Daytona, which is also trading at around 5-7k more than retail, between both prefer much more the 5711, we have both at home, doesn't even begin to compare IMO, but is a Daytona worth 17-18k and a 5711 worth 30k? Not for me, but maybe for some

[kitsgq]

Classic supply demand issue here. Not enough watches rolling out the factory, and lists across various AD reaching the 4 year mark. While I agree that a seller can ask whatever he wants, ultimately the price paid will be based on the buyers appetite and ability to pay such a premium without regard to shopping around for a lower price. I personally wouldn't have an issue paying a premium if I wanted a watch that badly, but truth be told I enjoy the process of putting my name down for a watch and getting that special call down the road. In this regard, I have a 5712 which is supposed to be here by August. It will be my first Patek. If there is a price increase, I hope it doesn't come into effect until just after I've picked mine up! 😁

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[Vipes]

I was thinking about this today. I think the 5712 is even more popular than ever. I think pre owned prices for the 5712 will slowly start to creep up if Patek keeps production low. My AD told me that it is harder for him to get the steel Nautilus pieces. He told me today that he sold a pre owned 5711 for 30k so there are people out there willing to pay over retail.

[martinr]

The trusted sellers on here are asking around 31,800 for a new 5711 and I'd guess they sell for about 30K. New from a US AD including sales tax would be 27K so if you really want one 10-15% premium.

[SSDAYTONAHULK]

What are your thoughts on the 5980/1A, considering it's discontinued?

[AK797]

It is the restricted supply that creates an even greater Veblen effect, and by trying to limit supply so PP don't become a one watch firm, Thierry is creating even more hype and talk of the 5711 and the opposite effect.

[kneedeep]

When the crowd move on to the next must have piece, whatever that is, the price premiums will abate. Until then it can get even more crazy with supply as intentionally limited as it is now.

[mps354]

Originally Posted by martinr

The trusted sellers on here are asking around 31,800 for a new 5711 and I'd guess they sell for about 30K. New from a US AD including sales tax would be 27K so if you really want one 10-15% premium.

Agree 100%...taxes add up pretty quickly, and really erode the perceived premium. With that said, I'm not sure I would've paid $30k for mine, but the premium is smaller than other pieces

[jon_jon]

What probably happened is that people got tired of waiting for the 5711/1A and noticed that the 5712/1A is more readily available at a slightly higher price point and went with the 5712/1A. Also the 5712/1A has complications that make it a more interesting watch.

But it is truly a supply and demand issue. A lot of factors can change both the supply and demand of these watches. Patek can control supply by holding back Certificates like they do in the UK for certain watches or doubling or tripling its production (although this is very unlikely). Demand can decrease if Patek starts holding back Certificates and/or if Patek comes out with a newer, improved reference.

I remember a time when the Rolex 116520 was quite difficult to get. Then a couple of years before Rolex came out with the 116500, supply caught up with demand and it no longer became that hard to find. However since the 116500 was released, the demand for the 116500 went through the roof but the 116520 got a boost as well because it was being discontinued.

[jon_jon]

Originally Posted by SSDAYTONAHULK

What are your thoughts on the 5980/1A, considering it's discontinued?

The 5980/1A is a very nice watch. However its price is significantly higher than the SS 5711/5712 and it attracts a different set of customers.

[Passionata]

It all depends when the next crisis hits the world ,i see a huge bubbles on every market and bubbles will burst the question isn t if rather when.

[Maltie]

Originally Posted by texex91

Don't know anyone who has or would pay $10k over. One can ask whatever they want, what they are actually selling for is another thing.

In belgium a 5711 blue, new was just sold for 33.5K euro. People seem to pay that premium.

[topcat30093]

Originally Posted by Vipes

I was thinking about this today. I think the 5712 is even more popular than ever. I think pre owned prices for the 5712 will slowly start to creep up if Patek keeps production low. My AD told me that it is harder for him to get the steel Nautilus pieces. He told me today that he sold a pre owned 5711 for 30k so there are people out there willing to pay over retail.

I thinks that this has already started with the 5712A.
Hopefully, my AD can get me one, but when that will happen, I have no idea!
I have been following the prices with both the 11 & 12 and as we already know the prices for the 11 are ridiculously high. And the preowned prices for the 12 are already varying from between £2,000 - £7,000 above AD prices.

[AckAck]

I can call my AD and buy a 5711 at retail no problem... why would anyone pay over list?

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by AckAck

I can call my AD and buy a 5711 at retail no problem... why would anyone pay over list?

Maybe because not everyone can phone his AD and gave one in an instant???

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by topcat30093

I thinks that this has already started with the 5712A.
Hopefully, my AD can get me one, but when that will happen, I have no idea!
I have been following the prices with both the 11 & 12 and as we already know the prices for the 11 are ridiculously high. And the preowned prices for the 12 are already varying from between £2,000 - £7,000 above AD prices.

Do you already have a 5711, Tony?

[texex91]

Originally Posted by AckAck

I can call my AD and buy a 5711 at retail no problem... why would anyone pay over list?

Exactly my point. I most certainly would not.

While not in stock, can be had in relative amount of time.

Is this watch (non-LE) worth 30% mark-up--no way. But to some it might and more power to them.

Supply / Demand, but everyone is different as to their 'need' for the watch vs willing to wait for MSRP.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by AckAck

I can call my AD and buy a 5711 at retail no problem... why would anyone pay over list?

I agree 5711 and other Nautilus can be had at retail without any problem.

I got a 5711 without being on any list. Recently I asked my AD for two more pieces and I was told there was a "waiting list" for both pieces but I will get the first refusal when they get delivery for those pieces back end of this year/early next year.

[Valedictorian]

I'm planning to purchase the 5711 with a 55% premium compared to retail. This is crazy but there is no other way to get the damn watch other than to wait 5 or more years. Considering that PP increases their prices with an average of 5% a year, my net premium would then drop to 21%, which is still a lot but reasonable. Of course this is only valid if we assume that prices indeed increase with 5% a year on average.

Can anyone please confirm what the average annual price increase is thar PP executed over the last 5 years?

[martinr]

Average annual price increase over that last five years is about zero depending on where you live.

[Busyboy]

Originally Posted by martinr

Average annual price increase over that last five years is about zero depending on where you live.

Good point
They've gone down in UK, then back to where they started

[Valedictorian]

Thanks. Maybe I should contain myself and chase an Aquanaut (again!).
The premium on the 5167A is usually less than 10% as far I can tell from chrono24...

[kilyung]

Market economics

[tonupbklyn]

those members here who stated that they have an AD that can get a 5711 fairly quickly, mind sending me PM to connect me to ur AD? i surely would like to get one at retail right away!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Passionata

It all depends when the next crisis hits the world ,i see a huge bubbles on every market and bubbles will burst the question isn t if rather when.

Let's just say I'm glad I scratched the 5711 itch already because at 30k it's laughable to me.

I prefer the aquanaut when push comes to shove anyways.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by Valedictorian

Thanks. Maybe I should contain myself and chase an Aquanaut (again!).
The premium on the 5167A is usually less than 10% as far I can tell from chrono24...

YES please do. 55% is insane for a premium. You can get them out there, just slow down and have to be patient.

MSRP can be had...but have to be willing to put in the time to make it happen.

Good luck

[codecow]

If you have a decent relationship with an AD in the US you can get a 5711 in a few months at MSRP.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by codecow

If you have a decent relationship with an AD in the US you can get a 5711 in a few months at MSRP.

Fully agree. The problem is that most 5711 buyers are first time Patek buyers in my estimation. Myself, it was my second Patek.