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Old 6 October 2022, 04:09 AM   #61
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You can buy now or later it won’t make any difference. Many many more years ahead of us before we ever get close to high times again. If at all…
This is what I agree with as well. It's going to be *years* before we reach back to highs. 100% disagree anybody who think we're going to have a true run up anytime soon. Plenty of time to invest and plenty of time for the market to soften as well. I'm thinking post elections will be a great buy time.
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Old 6 October 2022, 04:30 AM   #62
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CPI/ Inflation rate are high, FED cause a lot of problem in the interest rate and also the market

Will you choose to Invest now or wait, and why?

And if you choose to wait, until when you will jump in the stock market?
That's not how it works, if you are invested, you are invested,

If you have a 20M portfolio, it is likely balanced, but during these times a good manager will weight good performance and weed out poor performance. You might sell off some stocks and go to bonds if they are paying well, but it's all management.

When the market drops 30%, your 20M just lost 6M - but you can't suddenly cash out what's left easily.

If you're talking nickels and dimes on your home "app", do what you want and make good decisions.
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Old 6 October 2022, 05:02 AM   #63
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Jeez Larry, it’s 20M or Nickels and Dimes! Can we have a happy medium for peasants like me?
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Old 6 October 2022, 05:40 AM   #64
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Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on close to 150billion at the beginning of the year. Seems to be alot of quotes from the man, but even he has the sense to realize an oversaturated market, park some cash and deploy it when its tactile. Personally I think he jumped the gun on some of his purchases. But thats when he can fall back on his "time in the market is better than timing the market" quote.

Definitely a very unique situation/opportunity ahead.
Couple things to point out here.

#1, big numbers like ~$150 billion don't matter. Asset allocation does. Berkshire is around ~70% invested in equities. Much larger than $150 billion.

#2, Buffett invests very differently than most on the forum. He is a value investor, meaning he wants to buy individuals stocks at certain valuations. Unless you pour as much time, energy and effort as he does into Berkshire, I'd suggest you stick to broad-based index funds and maintain an allocation over time.

#3, Respectfully, hindsight is 20/20. To say he 'jumped the gun' on some of his purchases is like suggesting Nadal should work on his fitness.
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Old 6 October 2022, 05:48 AM   #65
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Seeing a lot of economic factors cited here. Certainly one could derive a correlation between the state of the economy and stock valuations.

But we invest in stocks (companies), not GDP. The stock market is not the economy. One should focus on the future prospects of long-term corporate earnings to decide if today is a good day to invest. Trading on random events is the equivalent of gambling. Information can gamify investing.
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Old 7 October 2022, 02:50 AM   #66
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I wouldn't time the market with broad baskets as a single investor as those that do have teams of many employees typically. You can always find deals on undervalued stocks regardless of the macro environment. Just the sectors that may change.
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Old 7 October 2022, 03:05 AM   #67
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That's not how it works, if you are invested, you are invested,

If you have a 20M portfolio, it is likely balanced, but during these times a good manager will weight good performance and weed out poor performance. You might sell off some stocks and go to bonds if they are paying well, but it's all management.

When the market drops 30%, your 20M just lost 6M - but you can't suddenly cash out what's left easily.

If you're talking nickels and dimes on your home "app", do what you want and make good decisions.
Numbers aside, precisely.

There’s a difference between investing and trading.
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Old 7 October 2022, 03:31 AM   #68
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Jeez Larry, it’s 20M or Nickels and Dimes! Can we have a happy medium for peasants like me?
I thought that we had minimum requirements to be a TRF member.
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Old 7 October 2022, 03:43 AM   #69
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Jeez Larry, it’s 20M or Nickels and Dimes! Can we have a happy medium for peasants like me?
Lol nickels and Dimes on $20M is still $1-2M... more than my NW ��������


Then 50% of Americans don't have $2k saved in case of an emergency.


There's definitely a pretty huge gap between the two.

Personally I love coming here and talking with all these wealthy folks who are so kind to share their opinions and investment strategies/advice.

I know where I fall on the totem pole, I also know none of these guys got to where they're at overnight.

For me, it is exhilarating. I can imagine that these guys think its cute that I love my little e46 with a 5 speed & yellow v6 s197 mustang. With my little six figure portfolio and my used 50 yr old Rolex.however at 28, I feel amazing. Sure I'm not at the top of the game, but I don't have a car note, my rent is cheap, I don't spend much on food, ~70% of my income is re invested. And I own my own business. I am optimistic about my future, and not unhappy where I'm at today considering my past and some of the issues I've had to work through. I know it was tongue in cheek, but I think the diverse financial backgrounds is one of the very cool aspects of this forum.

Looking up the housing prices in some of the cities members here have as their location makes me blush at times lol

We're not all going to be ultra wealthy, to me that doesn't denigrate how grateful I am to be in the financial position I am. The quality of life I enjoy today is greater than just about any verifiable point in human history. that is true wealth in my mind. The numbers just provide security. Which unfortunately I can't afford much of at the moment lol

I know the investing apps get made fun of alot, but I don't know how I would have gotten started otherwise. I wasn't comfortable investing much at first. Now I get a rush anytime I make a deposit. After a few big purchases, decided against touching it as a savings and its done well for me. I did do quite a bit of trading at first trying to time the market, but learned quickly that was more effort than it was worth. Might be a nickel and Dimer now, but im learning xD
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Old 7 October 2022, 05:08 AM   #70
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I thought that we had minimum requirements to be a TRF member.
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Old 7 October 2022, 08:24 AM   #71
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Lol nickels and Dimes on $20M is still $1-2M... more than my NW ��������


Then 50% of Americans don't have $2k saved in case of an emergency.


There's definitely a pretty huge gap between the two.

Personally I love coming here and talking with all these wealthy folks who are so kind to share their opinions and investment strategies/advice.

I know where I fall on the totem pole, I also know none of these guys got to where they're at overnight.

For me, it is exhilarating. I can imagine that these guys think its cute that I love my little e46 with a 5 speed & yellow v6 s197 mustang. With my little six figure portfolio and my used 50 yr old Rolex.however at 28, I feel amazing. Sure I'm not at the top of the game, but I don't have a car note, my rent is cheap, I don't spend much on food, ~70% of my income is re invested. And I own my own business. I am optimistic about my future, and not unhappy where I'm at today considering my past and some of the issues I've had to work through. I know it was tongue in cheek, but I think the diverse financial backgrounds is one of the very cool aspects of this forum.

Looking up the housing prices in some of the cities members here have as their location makes me blush at times lol

We're not all going to be ultra wealthy, to me that doesn't denigrate how grateful I am to be in the financial position I am. The quality of life I enjoy today is greater than just about any verifiable point in human history. that is true wealth in my mind. The numbers just provide security. Which unfortunately I can't afford much of at the moment lol

I know the investing apps get made fun of alot, but I don't know how I would have gotten started otherwise. I wasn't comfortable investing much at first. Now I get a rush anytime I make a deposit. After a few big purchases, decided against touching it as a savings and its done well for me. I did do quite a bit of trading at first trying to time the market, but learned quickly that was more effort than it was worth. Might be a nickel and Dimer now, but im learning xD
Bolded to highlight that you are doing far far far better than most and that's ignoring your age. With a good head on your shoulders and that type of discipline sprinkled with the magic of compounding and that six figures will be millions in your future. Good luck

Btw the e46 is my favorite 3 series variant
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Old 8 October 2022, 01:20 PM   #72
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Market still drop...
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Old 8 October 2022, 10:21 PM   #73
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What asset(s) tend to outperform the stock market?
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Old 9 October 2022, 02:52 AM   #74
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If you hadn't sold by now, all you can do is hang on and hope for a bottom sometime soon. If history is any guide, people who sell late into sustained declines rarely get back in at the right time and lock in the biggest loses. Those investors who cashed some out in January look pretty good here.
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:06 AM   #75
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What asset(s) tend to outperform the stock market?
On a risk adjusted basis, domestic fixed income. Though neither equities or fixed income will continue as is and both will have different risk return profiles going forward as we cut off quantitative easing globally. Commodity volatility and inflation will make sure none of the assets perform as historically expected averages. The risk premia on equities won’t be nearly as attractive going forward with rate normalization. We’ve seen several inversions of the yield curve already over the last number of years. Strong USD will hurt net exporter industries and companies. Lots of structural changes to the markets in the works that imo are being falsely assumed to be cyclical change by some investors and companies. That will continue to drive an increase in VIX, and ultimately make the charts look a lot different when backward reviewing in 5-7 years.
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:31 AM   #76
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What asset(s) tend to outperform the stock market?
Realistically nothing other than properly managed investment properties.

From my observations, it seems as though the markets are designed to outperform asset prices to dissuade the population from hoarding resources as that would cause supply chain issues and increase the cost of production across the board.

While historically speaking precious/rare earth metals have been inversely proportionate, I think the recent concurrent market dips provide an excellent investment opportunity, and with the current forecast silver, lithium, copper and nickel could provide some historic returns if this bottleneck/bear market continues as long as projected. Although these are more of commodities than assets at this point

The ratios some of the metals are trading at are pretty wild, historically speaking silver has gone at a 40:1 ratio to gold(recorded human history), modern applications account for the highest demand ever and its value is 83.5:1 on gold.even at these prices and ratios, I also believe that gold is undervalued, with the only reason for the current deals being that Russia is clearing foreign stockpiles through Swiss refiners to keep their Government solvent, I believe paper traders are intentionally keeping it deflated for the time being.

my experience in acquiring it lately(since the first lockdown) has led me to pay the highest premiums and its been the scarcest physical supply at dealers since I started collecting as a kid.


Bullion charts pre 08 and today are following similar trends as well.

I never like to encourage bullion trading as timing the market that can be so easily manipulated is tough, especially considering some of the hits I've taken in the past. But "this time seems different"

I guess personally I like gold and silver just to admire, so even if they don't go through the roof, I'm just happy to have it. But with future applications.

A projected increase in energy costs; which in return raises extraction costs as well as the disproportionate amount of people looking to park some cash might create the perfect flurry to bust through multiple critical support levels finally.
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Old 9 October 2022, 03:52 AM   #77
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Market still drop...
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Old 17 October 2022, 10:37 PM   #78
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Seeing a lot of economic factors cited here. Certainly one could derive a correlation between the state of the economy and stock valuations.

But we invest in stocks (companies), not GDP. The stock market is not the economy. One should focus on the future prospects of long-term corporate earnings to decide if today is a good day to invest. Trading on random events is the equivalent of gambling. Information can gamify investing.
These are very wise words ^^^.

Investing is often confused with trading I think.

If you are focused on “investing” for the long term, it doesn’t really matter what todays price of a stock trades at. You focus on buying good companies, with long term growth, that trade at reasonable valuations, and are able to pay increasing dividends.

I said earlier in this thread that I own stock from the late 80’s where the share price then (the cost base), is LESS than what the stock now pays in annual dividends. I’ll let that sink in ….

Of course it depends on what your objectives are. There’s nothing wrong with folks who want to trade the market, but I’ve found that’s not for me. It’s unfulfilling and I never get it right Too many headlines, too many talking heads and experts.

I get more fulfillment out of investing for long term to build wealth and I don’t worry about what the market is doing on a day to day basis. YMMV
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Old 17 October 2022, 10:39 PM   #79
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Its going down faster than a hookers knickers on a evening
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Old 17 October 2022, 11:21 PM   #80
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If you hadn't sold by now, all you can do is hang on and hope for a bottom sometime soon. If history is any guide, people who sell late into sustained declines rarely get back in at the right time and lock in the biggest loses. Those investors who cashed some out in January look pretty good here.
I had thought about this quite a bit. Hard not to.

It's all about making decisions and knowing there is a risk.

I did not cash out in January. Obviously, I wish I did. But I did cash out in April. And my savings has been pretty dramatic. Back of napkin only, but it is dramatic. And now I have have the loot to reinvest. At lower numbers.

I also cashed about a bit more two weeks ago. Got lucky on the small bump. I still believe that the markets are going to drop another 10% at a minimum.

I have committed myself to a certain time frame, unless something happens to change my mind. I will go back in in the relative near future. Most likely.

Even if I miss a good portion of the upside, I am guessing that it will still net me a decent win. But I am guessing that there is plenty more to drop. Things are not getting better and certain people in certain high positions appear to have their head in the sand.

A buddy recently said to me I must be getting killed in inflation after I explained to him I was mostly in high yield savings accounts.

I responded that his money in the markets, that continue to drop, is also subject to the ravages of inflation. At least I am getting circa 3% and it is safe until I decide it is the right time to start methodically reinvesting.

I realize there is a risk with what I am doing. There is always a risk. And I would not normally advocate timing the market. However, I do feel this is a situation that is different from the past. And I am pretty comfortable with the risk I am taking. I am only really risking losing out on more upside, while still making some interest on my money.

Only time will tell, but I truly believe this is an unprecedented time. I also believe that one needs to go against the grain to get the most cheese.
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Old 17 October 2022, 11:50 PM   #81
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Why not start dropping a little back in here and there on the down days? Unlikely to pick the absolute bottom, so I always buy a little on the days with the largest drops.

Pick some targets for the S&P and then drop in a certain % each time it hits those targets....I.E 10% when it hits 3600, 10% when it hits 3550, 10% when it hits 3500, etc. It protects your downside while also giving you upside. We all know the markets in a few years will be higher than it is now, and if we get a new Congress in November (praying for this) I think everything will get better much quicker.
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Old 18 October 2022, 01:50 AM   #82
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Why not start dropping a little back in here and there on the down days? Unlikely to pick the absolute bottom, so I always buy a little on the days with the largest drops.

Pick some targets for the S&P and then drop in a certain % each time it hits those targets....I.E 10% when it hits 3600, 10% when it hits 3550, 10% when it hits 3500, etc. It protects your downside while also giving you upside. We all know the markets in a few years will be higher than it is now, and if we get a new Congress in November (praying for this) I think everything will get better much quicker.
I think you are right. And I will likely start doing that sooner than later. But very very slowly.

I too have the same hopes for Nov. But I am not optimistic about things changing fast. I think they all suck. And any bumps will likely be short lived until the tides turn in the global economy.
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Old 18 October 2022, 06:02 AM   #83
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May be start going back in with S&P 500 ETF
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Old 20 October 2022, 12:03 AM   #84
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I would describe myself as “highly concerned” regarding the current global economy and USA economy. By and large I have been following the plan of a highly diversified portfolio (stocks, bonds, international, USA, commodities, currency, real estate, etc, etc etc.). Then just execute as planned. Buying in on a regular basis, up, down, who cares, just move forward.

it is very easy to say, “Well this is different.” Quite frankly, every situation is different. Each bull or bear market has its own characteristics. 1988, 2001, 2008, 2020, etc.

But, yes I have a BUT………this current situation feels completely different. Almost as if there are no tools to soften the blow of a crash. A few things I am seeing appear to all be rearing their heads at the same time. A perfect storm if you will.

- M1 money Supply. - printed so much money in the system. Multiples more than anytime in history. I’m willing to bet that 90%+ of the public has no idea how money is created. How banks “print” money out of thin air (not just central banks but all banks). Fractional Reserve Banking. How debt based currencies actually work.
- Inflation - I don’t trust the official numbers. They change the calculation methodology to fit their political needs.
- Currency volatility - The end of the USD as world reserve currency soon?
- Can’t lower rates as in the past with current inflation.
- Countries over levered - GDP to Debt ratio are at insane levels.
- Money Velocity - Falling to 40-50 year lows
- Bond Market is 3x-4x-5x larger than stock market. Bond market is collapsing. Central banks (Bank of England) are printing/creating money out of thin air to buy bonds in order to fight off a total collapse. The market has no appetite for all of these bonds that have been created.
- All classes of investments are falling at the same time. Has this ever happened before?

My wife and I have worked really hard to build a great life. We have very nice things and have any amazing life for the family. In our mind, we live quite conservatively. Good reserves, no unreasonable /risky debt, long term investment strategy (never bought into the “watches/cars are investments”), etc.

Thanks for letting me vent. Just feeling a bit uneasy. I have a meeting with my fiduciary later today. Will be interested to hear his thoughts.

Interested to hear all of your thoughts. What are you hearing from your trusted advisors?


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Old 20 October 2022, 12:32 AM   #85
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This is not a debate. Always invest. If you bought in the day before the great depression, during the great depression, the great recession, etc....you would consistently have come out on top, assuming you had the discipline to stay the course. If one wants to get in and try to time things, see the future, that's tantamount to gambling. I recall the dow being at like 8k during the great recession and it seemed the sky was falling. Now even in these trying times, its hovering around 29k. Invest for the long haul and you have no worries. Let the day to day worries up to the day traders.
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Old 20 October 2022, 01:26 AM   #86
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if we don't reach ATH by Jan I know a lot of people over leveraged who won't make it.

I doubt the FED can let us reset.
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Old 20 October 2022, 01:34 AM   #87
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This is not a debate. Always invest. If you bought in the day before the great depression, during the great depression, the great recession, etc....you would consistently have come out on top, assuming you had the discipline to stay the course. If one wants to get in and try to time things, see the future, that's tantamount to gambling. I recall the dow being at like 8k during the great recession and it seemed the sky was falling. Now even in these trying times, its hovering around 29k. Invest for the long haul and you have no worries. Let the day to day worries up to the day traders.
This is precisely how to "invest" which was the title of the thread.

IMHO, the thread is really more about timing the market and trading.

This chart is compelling to what @Chester01 stated above.

Can anyone guess what historic event this chart shows?

Hint look back to 35 years ago today.





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Old 20 October 2022, 01:39 AM   #88
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if we don't reach ATH by Jan I know a lot of people over leveraged who won't make it.

I doubt the FED can let us reset.

ATH? Unfamiliar with that term.


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Old 20 October 2022, 01:59 AM   #89
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ATH? Unfamiliar with that term.


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I'm assuming it means all time high.
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Old 20 October 2022, 02:12 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Chester01 View Post
This is not a debate. Always invest. If you bought in the day before the great depression, during the great depression, the great recession, etc....you would consistently have come out on top, assuming you had the discipline to stay the course. If one wants to get in and try to time things, see the future, that's tantamount to gambling. I recall the dow being at like 8k during the great recession and it seemed the sky was falling. Now even in these trying times, its hovering around 29k. Invest for the long haul and you have no worries. Let the day to day worries up to the day traders.
Only caution is that an indefinite timeframe is not the financial goal for everyone. If I invested $100,000 in 1998 in the S&P500, it would be worth $246,000 today. However, inflation has also gone up about 65% since 1998, so really my net gain is about $80k. If my profit is $80k over 24 years, sorry but that reward does not balance the risk threshold for me. Safer to just put money in bonds, or even at an hourly wage of $20/hour, this is equivalent to working an extra 3 hours per week, and with zero risk of market dynamics messing up your savings. Me personally, I’d rather sell at $20k loss after year 1 or 2 and move on to some other venture faster (investing is half taking profits, and half minimizing losses).

Now, I recognize most long haul investors are not just putting money in and waiting. They are making monthly contributions as well. So since 1998, the S&P has returned 3.9% annually on average to date (S&P at 1500 in 1998, and at 3700ish today = 3.9% compounded over 24 years). So let’s say I were to have contributed $25,000 plus $1000 per month, every month along the way. My total contributions would be about $315k and my total equity would be about $525k. Adjust for inflation a bit and let’s call it somewhere around $150-200k equivalent in profit. Not bad, but again…. This is 24 years. So I’m “making” an extra $8k year equivalent, but absorbing all the risk with less working capital daily as well.

My point is just to show that a long term horizon is fine, the likelihood is that you will be ahead. But, what is that long term investment being used for is the question. For some it’s just a place to park excess cash, which is the ideal - you will be ahead. For some it’s their retirement, maybe less ideal as you’d really need large regular contributions to add up to something meaningful. How long are you willing to wait and for what size return? These are not the same answers for everyone, completely depend on financial situation and goals.

I’d highlight that long term investing in equities is one strategy to consider, and for those who are using it as a means to compound excess cash then absolutely I think it’s a great option. But similarly if you don’t have tons of cash to diversify, or if you are young in your career/life journey, why not start a business? Invest in real estate? Invest in further education etc? There are many ways to make money work for you, stocks are just one option.

In the current climate of climbing inflation, plus declining equity prices, there’s a double hit. Worth considering what exactly you expect your money to do for you before deciding whether to invest and where to invest imo.
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