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Old 20 February 2023, 04:45 PM   #3361
psm11
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Originally Posted by Vince_76 View Post
Thanks everyone! Definitely missed our conversations, and it really put into perspective how great this community really is.

Now, back to some pricing talk!

Fullset 15500 mint - sitting at 35k

Royal oak dual time, fully linked with new bracelet, papers and open date - sitting for 30.5k (wish theyíd bring these back)

I think this was mentioned - 26331 fullset sold for 35.5k

Royal oak prices are definitely still declining, at quite a precipitous rate. Other models, particularly GMT and Daytona, havenít moved much, but I do think there will be further corrections in those models as well

Iím very interested to see what happens post- Watches & Wonders, into the summer months
Vince where did you see the 26331 go for 35.5k at? What dial color?
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Old 20 February 2023, 08:23 PM   #3362
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Fullset 15500 mint - sitting at 35k
These are getting temptingÖ..Canít help but think there is still room to go lower on this piece.
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Old 20 February 2023, 08:33 PM   #3363
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The recent rally seems to have collapsed and resolved as a dead cat bounce. We are now at a new lowest low for the last 1 year

Market index from Watchcharts
Screenshot 2023-02-20 at 6.32.54 PM.png
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Old 21 February 2023, 12:05 AM   #3364
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The recent rally seems to have collapsed and resolved as a dead cat bounce. We are now at a new lowest low for the last 1 year

Market index from Watchcharts
Attachment 1349640
That graph shows zero rally......
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Old 21 February 2023, 12:22 AM   #3365
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I think with AP its the combination of the 50th anniversary being over, plethora of variants of the Royal Oak in the market place, and consumers in the marketplace for a $20k-40k watch realizing the premium isn't worth it knowing that AP will continue to produce Royal Oaks.

I also think eventually over time the 5711-1A and 5711-1R will also decline as the production span of the 5811-1G increases and when Patek releases the 5811-1R.
I agree. Run of the mill, mass produced royal oaks are not special from an investment perspective. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with patek. I think the 5711 has a ways down to go as well (not only for the reason that you stated, but also due to general market conditions, and how over priced it has been/is for a stainless steel watch

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Vince where did you see the 26331 go for 35.5k at? What dial color?
On MODA. It was a black dial. I believe it sold five days ago or so.

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Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
These are getting tempting…..Can’t help but think there is still room to go lower on this piece.
There is. Even at new lows, the pieces are moving very slowly or not at all.
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Old 21 February 2023, 12:59 AM   #3366
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That graph shows zero rally......
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp

Weren't you the one saying the bottom had been reached and that prices were rising a few weeks back? It's that last bump.
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Old 21 February 2023, 01:14 AM   #3367
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Iím baaaaaaaaack :)

Looking forward to providing more pricing updates and discussing this topic
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Old 21 February 2023, 01:16 AM   #3368
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That graph shows zero rally......
Because it fizzled...
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Old 21 February 2023, 01:47 AM   #3369
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https://youtube.com/shorts/VmA_ArY_SyA?feature=share



Music to my ears lol
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Old 21 February 2023, 03:10 AM   #3370
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Here's the data for AP, and the index is basically all RO. Looks like the trend's continuing for APs.

AP Index
image_2023-02-21_011009832.png
https://watchcharts.com/watches/bran...udemars+piguet
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Old 21 February 2023, 04:25 AM   #3371
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Originally Posted by T3rmina1 View Post
Here's the data for AP, and the index is basically all RO. Looks like the trend's continuing for APs.

AP Index
Attachment 1349700
https://watchcharts.com/watches/bran...udemars+piguet
Yeah, but this is a misleading graph: it looks much worse than it is because the y-axis starts at 76,500. In other words, from peak to trough -now- it is only down around 3,500 or less than 5%. Some charts on Chrono24 are way scarier.
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Old 21 February 2023, 04:43 AM   #3372
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Iím baaaaaaaaack :)

Looking forward to providing more pricing updates and discussing this topic

Welcome back. Your contribution to the forum is greatly appreciated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Old 21 February 2023, 06:03 AM   #3373
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Yeah, but this is a misleading graph: it looks much worse than it is because the y-axis starts at 76,500. In other words, from peak to trough -now- it is only down around 3,500 or less than 5%. Some charts on Chrono24 are way scarier.
No way AP is down only 5 percent since peak. You had 15500 listed for 60-70k and 26331s listed for over 100 at peak. All of those have lost at least half that value if not more. Look at the link I shared above, dealers arenít stocking AP and if you try to sell one to a dealer youíre going to get bent over on the price.
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Old 21 February 2023, 06:04 AM   #3374
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No way AP is down only 5 percent since peak. You had 15500 listed for 60-70k and 26331s listed for over 100 at peak. All of those have lost at least half that value if not more. Look at the link I shared above, dealers arenít stocking AP and if you try to sell one to a dealer youíre going to get bent over on the price.

It's down 23% in that graph. I didn't follow that either. Was he talking about the "rally" bump and dump?
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Old 21 February 2023, 06:11 AM   #3375
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Welcome back. Your contribution to the forum is greatly appreciated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thank you both!

Quote:
Originally Posted by T3rmina1 View Post
Here's the data for AP, and the index is basically all RO. Looks like the trend's continuing for APs.
Watchcharts is a very poor indicator and only directionally correct. They only track asking prices from select sources. If you want to know the market price, then call up a dealer and see how much they will offer you for a Royal Oak (+ their usual margin). As has been discussed, many wonít even buy or will only take on consignment.

The most popular royal oaks have dropped ~50% from peak with no pricing support.
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Old 21 February 2023, 06:39 AM   #3376
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It's down 23% in that graph. I didn't follow that either. Was he talking about the "rally" bump and dump?
I did not click on the link, just looked at the graph displayed in his post, it goes back to November 2022. Since then it is down 4%, which is nothing and completely out of touch with the market for APs. As another poster said, I don’t put any stock in Watchcharts.
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Old 21 February 2023, 06:49 AM   #3377
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I did not click on the link, just looked at the graph displayed in his post, it goes back to November 2022. Since then it is down 4%, which is nothing and completely out of touch with the market for APs. As another poster said, I donít put any stock in Watchcharts.

Understood and agreed RE WatchCharts.

The AP market is closer to -50% based on watches I'm interested in.

Here's the whole chart.

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Old 21 February 2023, 07:08 AM   #3378
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Iím baaaaaaaaack :)

Looking forward to providing more pricing updates and discussing this topic


Sendt fra min SM-F711B med Tapatalk
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Old 21 February 2023, 07:15 AM   #3379
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The recent rally seems to have collapsed and resolved as a dead cat bounce. We are now at a new lowest low for the last 1 year

Market index from Watchcharts
Attachment 1349640
looks like no bottom in sight until we get to pre covid levels
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Old 21 February 2023, 07:19 AM   #3380
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Understood and agreed RE WatchCharts.

The AP market is closer to -50% based on watches I'm interested in.

Here's the whole chart.



That 3-year chart you posted shows how far we still are from where this whole madness started...
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Old 21 February 2023, 07:27 AM   #3381
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That 3-year chart you posted shows how far we still are from where this whole madness started...

Exactly. That's what bubble symmetry is all about. Maybe add some tilt for inflation and a 20% bump for watches being hot FOMO items now and you need to come down another 30%.
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Old 21 February 2023, 07:51 AM   #3382
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Exactly. That's what bubble symmetry is all about. Maybe add some tilt for inflation and a 20% bump for watches being hot FOMO items now and you need to come down another 30%.
excellent analaysis. I think in January we were in the "Return to Normal" phase...

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Old 21 February 2023, 12:01 PM   #3383
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No way AP is down only 5 percent since peak. You had 15500 listed for 60-70k and 26331s listed for over 100 at peak. All of those have lost at least half that value if not more. Look at the link I shared above, dealers arenít stocking AP and if you try to sell one to a dealer youíre going to get bent over on the price.
I didn't put the full graph because I assumed everyone knew that the peak was not 3 months ago. The point is that AP is continuing to fall
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Old 22 February 2023, 12:56 AM   #3384
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I didn't put the full graph because I assumed everyone knew that the peak was not 3 months ago. The point is that AP is continuing to fall
Is there a reason why AP is falling a lot more than Rolex? Even with the W&W speculation...
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:14 AM   #3385
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Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

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Is there a reason why AP is falling a lot more than Rolex? Even with the W&W speculation...

Clearly there was not organic demand at anywhere near those prices. Same could be said for platinum Daytonas at $190k.

Once the speculator demand dropped and supply was too high for actual end users they dropped and dropped until someone was a taker.

It will continue for some time and fall further. They just aren't as well known and popular a brand as Rolex. They lack mass appeal to put it another way.

Most people would buy a gold Rolex over a steel AP at $40k.
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:38 AM   #3386
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Clearly there was not organic demand at anywhere near those prices. Same could be said for platinum Daytonas at $190k.

Once the speculator demand dropped and supply was too high for actual end users they dropped and dropped until someone was a taker.

It will continue for some time and fall further. They just aren't as well known and popular a brand as Rolex. They lack mass appeal to put it another way.

Most people would buy a gold Rolex over a steel AP at $40k.

Not sure about that as many gold Rolexes are more or less trading under retail now whereas steel AP is still minimum 40% over retail
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:41 AM   #3387
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Not sure about that as many gold Rolexes are more or less trading under retail now whereas steel AP is still minimum 40% over retail

Not sure about what. I didn't say anything about % above retail.

If a consumer wants to buy a nice watch and has a $40k budget do they pick a gold Rolex or a steel AP.

Poll the forum. If you have a $40k budget would you buy a AP in steel or a gold Daydate or Submariner?
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:48 AM   #3388
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Not sure about what. I didn't say anything about % above retail.

If a consumer wants to buy a nice watch and has a $40k budget do they pick a gold Rolex or a steel AP.

Poll the forum. If you have a $40k budget would you buy a AP in steel or a gold Daydate or Submariner?

I think it would depend if for steel AP we are talking a silver dial 15510 or a green dial 26240. Itís just kind of a blanket statement and I donít know how else to measure demand besides market price in relation to retail. And by that logic steel APs are still more in demand than gold Rolexes.
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:50 AM   #3389
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I think it would depend if for steel AP we are talking a silver dial 15510 or a green dial 26240. Itís just kind of a blanket statement and I donít know how else to measure demand besides market price in relation to retail. And by that logic steel APs are still more in demand than gold Rolexes.

I honestly don't think AP would win the popularity contest even then.

@HelloMelo asked why they are falling faster than Rolex. What is your answer since you don't like mine?
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Old 22 February 2023, 01:51 AM   #3390
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I think it would depend if for steel AP we are talking a silver dial 15510 or a green dial 26240. Itís just kind of a blanket statement and I donít know how else to measure demand besides market price in relation to retail. And by that logic steel APs are still more in demand than gold Rolexes.

Relative to their supply. Rolex probably makes more Subs in a year than AP makes across their entire line.
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