Seeking advice/opinions on 15450ST

[breads1]

Been longing for a RO for the past 2-3 years and I finally have the means to buy one.. after long research, videos, and photos I've come to the decision that the 15450 makes the most sense for me (price wise and size wise).

I've only had the liberty of trying on my buddies 15400 and it was way too big on my ~6.4" wrists. Never got to try on a 15300 or a 15450 before but it seems the 15450 are easier to find (and cheaper) via grey market.

I probably will never be able to obtain one retail from a boutique so I've resorted to buying one on the secondary market, which comes my next concern. Is paying ~40-45k USD for a full set like new condition 15450 (white dial) absolutely insane or just the reality of it all nowadays? I'm prepared to spend that much to obtain my absolute dream watch but wanted to hear your guys opinions and any advice as well.

Thanks in advance :)

[Seddyspaghetti]

Insane is relative but yes, to me, that’s insane for a 15450st. But hey, people do insane things all the time and i guess $40k is the price of admission for a 15450st these days.

I’d rather just register my interest at an AP boutique and wait it out. 15450st shouldn’t be thaaaat difficult to get if you wait around a year or two.

[EdwardC]

These days a full set with excellent condition 15450 can go as high as $60k. So relatively speaking your deal is not insane

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Insane is relative but yes, to me, that’s insane for a 15450st. But hey, people do insane things all the time and i guess $40k is the price of admission for a 15450st these days.

I’d rather just register my interest at an AP boutique and wait it out. 15450st shouldn’t be thaaaat difficult to get if you wait around a year or two.

i don't think it's possible within a year anymore. these are slowly pushing 60 now

[RolLee]

Waiting is insane! Lol

Assuming you can afford the price for grey market admission and you love the watch, I think you’ll be happy.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Originally Posted by huncho

i don't think it's possible within a year anymore. these are slowly pushing 60 now

Insane!

Actually i just realized. Isn’t the 15450st discontinued? So i guess one must wait for a 15500st in 37mm nowadays.

[Token74]

Not insane at all, if you have the cash and you love the watch, get the deal done.

It’s the perfect size for your wrist in my view. I have a 15450 and a 15300 and the 15450 fits me better (i have 6.5” wrists). I can get away with the 15300 but the 15459 is perfect.


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[neal.jy]

My opinion is - if you know that's what you want/like, and you have the means to do so, go for it. Prices don't seem like they're going to get any better, and if you're purchasing the watch because you love it and not strictly as an "investment piece", I'd say go for it sooner rather than later.

As others have said, the alternative is to try and go down the boutique route - but firstly the 15450 is discontinued, so if you definitely want a 15450 and not a 15550 then your only option is grey.. and secondly it comes down to whether you want to wait the 1-2 years (or more).

I first started talking to the boutiques over a year ago - responses ranged from me needing to "start a relationship" via a Code/Offshore, to asking me to keep checking in for updates (but not even taking my name or creating a profile). Finally AP NYC seemed somewhat interested - we had a nice conversation and a profile was created for me. 1 year later, after me reaching out to check in every 1-2 months, I was told that there was 0 to little chance that I'd be able to get a piece this year (2022) due to the 50yr anniversary releases, and that "hopefully" I'd have a chance maybe next year. Ended up biting the bullet and purchasing through Material Good, at 150% of what the price was as of a year ago.

[breads1]

Appreciate all the advice and opinions. Thank you.

Did not know the 15450st is discontinued now.. and don't think they are pushing 60s from a quick search at chrono.

Yes I love this piece, and no I will not look at it as an "investment" piece as I will be wearing it every chance I get, but I was still concerned of prices dropping (so I could possibly get it cheaper). Seeing how the 15500's are going from damn near 6 figures (which is insane to me) I can't see it getting worse from there.

I've also come to realize that the 450s are getting more popular as more and more dealers are saying it's getting more difficult to source or they are spoken for already from international brokers/buyers. I guess I just answered my own question.. I'll be an owner soon :)

[sigma089]

I am looking for a silver 15450 myself and am not a fan of the dial layout of the 15550 which replaced the 450 this year.

I am absolutely sure prices will normalize in good time. 450s will be abundant on the secondary market then with the blue one probably commanding a premium still. I'll snatch a silver unworn example once that happens around or a little under MSRP. Don't feed the hype now. Shelling out 60k or 40k even for a 450 is pure insanity.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by sigma089

I am absolutely sure prices will normalize in good time. 450s will be abundant on the secondary market then with the blue one probably commanding a premium still. I'll snatch a silver unworn example once that happens around or a little under MSRP. Don't feed the hype now. Shelling out 60k or 40k even for a 450 is pure insanity.

No idea if/when prices will drop back to MSRP or below, but it certainly is a possibility - after all, that's where prices sat for almost all of history. I would only pay the $20k+ premium if that kind of cash falls in the "peanuts" and not the "hard-earned" category (and I say that as someone who owns and appreciates a 15450).

[EdwardC]

As a collector I hope this doesn't happen: AP is steadily increasing their MSRP and I wouldn't be surprised in 2 years, the MSRP is similar to the market price today. A 15500st market price 2 years ago was $25k or less. Now with tax a new 15500st is above that.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by sigma089

I am looking for a silver 15450 myself and am not a fan of the dial layout of the 15550 which replaced the 450 this year.

I am absolutely sure prices will normalize in good time. 450s will be abundant on the secondary market then with the blue one probably commanding a premium still. I'll snatch a silver unworn example once that happens around or a little under MSRP. Don't feed the hype now. Shelling out 60k or 40k even for a 450 is pure insanity.

i wouldn't hold my breath for under msrp. the market right now is too hot but a lot of these watches might never sell near msrp again unless interest and demand completely die off because i just don't see these brands not trying to keep the hype up. it would take a lot for it to reverse back to the other extreme. hermes has been doing this for much longer and kept the same business model despite changes in economic conditions and fashion

[fullofboats]

Strongly suggest you consider the 14790 as well. Cheaper than the 15450, 1mm smaller but much thinner and in my opinion, wears much better than the 15450.

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by fullofboats

Strongly suggest you consider the 14790 as well. Cheaper than the 15450, 1mm smaller but much thinner and in my opinion, wears much better than the 15450.

Agree. The proportions are better on the 14790s. I have several ROs and found the 15450 a little chunky. The new 15550 gets it right but not easy to get. The mid-sizes in 14790 an:d 14700 are smart substitutes .


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[DaytonaNYC99]

A lot of great information! I've been looking at 15450st for a while now. My first target was 15500st, but after I tried 15400st and 15450st on my wrist, I instantly felt the difference and liked the 37mm better. It all comes down to how it fits on your wrist. Nowadays the market for new 15450st blue is below 40k. Though I don't know what was you deicison, I'd say go for it!