the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by statsman

Question- if the US doesn’t see a significant improvement, should we imitate Sweden’s policy?

Experts say - With social distancing and current measures we will see between 100K to 200K deaths in USA. If we remove the social distancing part and open business back - we will say 1.5 million to 2 million deaths.

Now, you pick!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Maxy

Experts say - With social distancing and current measures we will see between 100K to 200K deaths in USA. If we remove the social distancing part and open business back - we will say 1.5 million to 2 million deaths.

Now, you pick!

FWIW, I have a hard time believing a lot of “experts”. On both side of the coin.

In this situation, I suppose we will see, as other nations certainly won’t be practicing the same regulations.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Maxy

Experts say - With social distancing and current measures we will see between 100K to 200K deaths in USA. If we remove the social distancing part and open business back - we will say 1.5 million to 2 million deaths.

Now, you pick!

Or we could see 180 million people out of work which would be a much bigger problem for myriad of reasons than this virus ever would be. At some point you have to see reality.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by statsman

I have a question for you to consider. I really don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other.

Sweden is not shutting down like most developed countries. They are encouraging hygiene and social distancing, but not mandating it. They have a Covid-19 problem (180 deaths in a population of ten million) but it is not as bad as some.

The US just added 20k new cases and over 500 deaths each of the last couple of days.

Question- if the US doesn’t see a significant improvement, should we imitate Sweden’s policy?

From what I have read in several articles, they are pretty much ignoring social distancing except in name only. So, far Sweden has resisted stronger measures because their leaders think their health system is not in danger of being over run and is saving stricter measures for that time. Question is whether they will be able to put the genie back in the bottle if they see a progression like other countries.

On the other hand, the US numbers are worse and growing. So, for me, stopping social distancing while your numbers are exponentially increasing is a lot like turning off the firehoses because water is not slowing the fire quick enough. Or, possibly, pouring gas on the fire.

Just my opinion.

Stay safe.

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by superdog

FWIW, I have a hard time believing a lot of “experts”. On both side of the coin.

In this situation, I suppose we will see, as other nations certainly won’t be practicing the same regulations.

Yesterday it was 558 deaths in single day and today it'll be over 700 in US. This is just the starting of the curve. Once Italy crossed 500, its been like that for 2 weeks now (Italy is over 800 daily for almost a week now).

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Or we could see 180 million people out of work which would be a much bigger problem for myriad of reasons than this virus ever would be. At some point you have to see reality.

I believe there are only slightly more than 157 million Americans in the workforce.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...rican-workers/

Stay safe.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

From what I have read in several articles, they are pretty much ignoring social distancing except in name only. So, far Sweden has resisted stronger measures because their leaders think their health system is not in danger of being over run and is saving stricter measures for that time. Question is whether they will be able to put the genie back in the bottle if they see a progression like other countries.

On the other hand, the US numbers are worse and growing. So, for me, stopping social distancing while your numbers are exponentially increasing is a lot like turning off the firehoses because water is not slowing the fire quick enough. Or, possibly, pouring gas on the fire.

Just my opinion.

Stay safe.

I personally think the numbers are going to get worse no matter what.

Too many stories confirming how extremely contagious this is. Unless you shut down the country, and even the world really, for a minimum of few months, this thing will just spread. Albeit it will likely spread slower. Even then, this won't just go away.

My questions: Is slower or faster better? Certainly for the heroes on the frontline, they want to slow it. That is completely understandable. However, I do wonder how they will feel when this battle has been raging for months and years instead of just the past few weeks.

How will the medical professionals be able to cope when there is just a steady stream of non-stop, endless infected over a period of years. It is a scary thought.

IMHO, the answer is not to hide away, but rather to find a new way. Evolve as a species and change how we behave and act. Mitigate the risks while learning to live with the new challenge that is simply not going to go away.

No good answers here brother.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Or we could see 180 million people out of work which would be a much bigger problem for myriad of reasons than this virus ever would be. At some point you have to see reality.

Lots of people are working from home and the stimulus will provide income for many as we get this under control. Unless you think millions dead and millions sick won't affect the economy much. The workers are the highest risk of contact because they interact and are outside most of the day. Also it's highly unlikely 180 million people will be unemployed as that's more than 100% of the American workforce

Even now in China with the lockdowns lifted people are choosing to stay home as much as they can. It's still advised to social distance

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Or we could see 180 million people out of work which would be a much bigger problem for myriad of reasons than this virus ever would be. At some point you have to see reality.

Understand your concern about damage to the economy.

But I believe in this country and the ingenuity and strength of her people. My opinion is that If other countries can survive practicing social distancing to avoid the possibility of a large number of deaths deaths and damage to the healthcare system, then we can too.

Just my opinion.

Stay safe.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Maxy

Yesterday it was 558 deaths in single day and today it'll be over 700 in US. This is just the starting of the curve. Once Italy crossed 500, its been like that for 2 weeks now (Italy is over 800 daily for almost a week now).

I am not challenging that.

I am challenging the experts knowledge of how this will effect us based on how we act and react. The numbers have been wildly skewed and all over the place.

The models are imperfect at best. Too much is unknown.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RWH

Lots of people are working from home and the stimulus will provide income for many as we get this under control. Unless you think millions dead and millions sick won't affect the economy much. The workers are the highest risk of contact because they interact and are outside most of the day. Also it's highly unlikely 180 million people will be unemployed as that's more than 100% of the American workforce

Even now in China with the lockdowns lifted people are choosing to stay home as much as they can. It's still advised to social distance

Agree with staying home as much as possible.

Agree with social distancing.

But it cant be all or nothing. We need to find a new way. One that has a balanced approach.

Sadly, there is simply no good answer or solution here. And there really is no right or wrong. We just don't know enough to be able to properly judge that.

The reality is that it is impossible to know the right answers.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by superdog

Agree with staying home as much as possible.

Agree with social distancing.

But it cant be all or nothing. We need to find a new way. One that has a balanced approach.

Sadly, there is simply no good answer or solution here. And there really is no right or wrong. We just don't know enough to be able to properly judge that.

The reality is that it is impossible to know the right answers.

Well the thing is we've already seen what works with the Asian countries unfortunately we can't implement the same measures here because it would be considered too harsh. If we want to get started up quickly we gotta throw the hammer down in full force. That is the true all or nothing situation.

We are kinda stuck in the middle. We don't want to stop the virus dead in its tracks we just want to slow it down.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Or we could see 180 million people out of work which would be a much bigger problem for myriad of reasons than this virus ever would be. At some point you have to see reality.

Can I assume you would choose 2,000,000 deaths in the US?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RWH

Well the thing is we've already seen what works with the Asian countries unfortunately we can't implement the same measures here because it would be considered too harsh. If we want to get started up quickly we gotta throw the hammer down in full force. That is the true all or nothing situation.

We are kinda stuck in the middle. We don't want to stop the virus dead in its tracks we just want to slow it down.

Has it actually worked?

Do we know that?

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by superdog

FWIW, I have a hard time believing a lot of “experts”. On both side of the coin.

Why? What is your reason for not believing Dr. Fauci and the others who have been in the business of epidemiology for almost 40 years?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Why? What is your reason for not believing Dr. Fauci and the others who have been in the business of epidemiology for almost 40 years?

Have you seen how often their numbers change?

[scarlet knight]

Hopefully, science will find effective treatment soon. Or a vaccine within a year. Also, it could subside with the warmer weather. Another scenario is that so many people are infected, herd immunity develops. Just spitballing, I have no medical credentials.

[statsman]

A few things-

I think it’s worth studying Sweden. If their policy is wrong, the numbers will show it. If the numbers don’t show it...? (One thing they are doing is strongly encouraging one segment of the population- the elderly- to take extreme measures).

Italy’s deaths have not plateaued. They only count deaths in hospitals as COVID-19 deaths. They have a finite supply of hospital beds, so more and more are dying at home and not being counted. Things are not going better there.

Of the Asian countries- China’s numbers are bs. They aren’t counting all their new cases (they are qurantining people without counting them) and there are a lot of indications that they severely under counted deaths. Japan’s count spiked after they delayed the Olympics- they were playing games, too. ROK is the only truly successful Asian story and there is a lot to learn from them.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by superdog

Have you seen how often their numbers change?

Of course the numbers change. The situation is fluid.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by superdog

I personally think the numbers are going to get worse no matter what.

Too many stories confirming how extremely contagious this is. Unless you shut down the country, and even the world really, for a minimum of few months, this thing will just spread. Albeit it will likely spread slower. Even then, this won't just go away.

My questions: Is slower or faster better? Certainly for the heroes on the frontline, they want to slow it. That is completely understandable. However, I do wonder how they will feel when this battle has been raging for months and years instead of just the past few weeks.

How will the medical professionals be able to cope when there is just a steady stream of non-stop, endless infected over a period of years. It is a scary thought.

IMHO, the answer is not to hide away, but rather to find a new way. Evolve as a species and change how we behave and act. Mitigate the risks while learning to live with the new challenge that is simply not going to go away.

No good answers here brother.

Agree that it will get worse no matter what. Do not think that can be disputed. Question of course, is how much worse from which of the options we have.

The hope is that there will not be a steady non-stop steam for years. The plan being followed by the White House CV Task Force is predicated on being able to prevent that. Of course they could be wrong, but I hope not.

There are many ways to evolve as a species. We really got caught with our pants down on this one. And one way to evolve is to fight it, change our norms and then put resources into being better prepared next time.

But of course, as you said brother, there are no good answers.

Stay safe.

[77T]

Originally Posted by statsman

I have a question for you to consider. I really don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other.

Sweden is not shutting down like most developed countries. They are encouraging hygiene and social distancing, but not mandating it. They have a Covid-19 problem (180 deaths in a population of ten million) but it is not as bad as some.

The US just added 20k new cases and over 500 deaths each of the last couple of days.

Question- if the US doesn’t see a significant improvement, should we imitate Sweden’s policy?

Isn’t Sweden’s COVID-19 deaths per million almost 2x of US?

I don’t know the curves of new deaths in Sweden vs. US. But I do know Sweden is vastly different in large city density factors. US has many more densely populated cities. Cultures are different as well as resources.

For those reasons I wouldn’t change midstream.

If Sweden’s rate stabilizes and US does, too by using different mitigation tactics then it’ll take years of study to find causal relationships.




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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by RWH

Lots of people are working from home and the stimulus will provide income for many as we get this under control. Unless you think millions dead and millions sick won't affect the economy much. The workers are the highest risk of contact because they interact and are outside most of the day. Also it's highly unlikely 180 million people will be unemployed as that's more than 100% of the American workforce

Even now in China with the lockdowns lifted people are choosing to stay home as much as they can. It's still advised to social distance

This is not an all or nothing scenario. As far as China goes I don’t believe any of their numbers or advice for obvious reasons.

[77T]

Originally Posted by statsman

A few things-

I think it’s worth studying Sweden. If their policy is wrong, the numbers will show it. If the numbers don’t show it...? (One thing they are doing is strongly encouraging one segment of the population- the elderly- to take extreme measures).

Italy’s deaths have not plateaued. They only count deaths in hospitals as COVID-19 deaths. They have a finite supply of hospital beds, so more and more are dying at home and not being counted. Things are not going better there.

Of the Asian countries- China’s numbers are bs. They aren’t counting all their new cases (they are qurantining people without counting them) and there are a lot of indications that they severely under counted deaths. Japan’s count spiked after they delayed the Olympics- they were playing games, too. ROK is the only truly successful Asian story and there is a lot to learn from them.

They are studying and sharing methods and procedures across different countries but the maths don’t agree with your assessment of Sweden thus far.


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[RWH]

Originally Posted by superdog

Has it actually worked?

Do we know that?

Well you can be the judge of that by looking at numbers from Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore who all got hit way earlier than we did. Of course its easier for their countries to implement complete shutdown and control because most of their power lies within the central government vs the US where the states have a lot of leeway and power.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Can I assume you would choose 2,000,000 deaths in the US?

Over the other options which would likely result in an out of control society? Yes I would. It’s unfortunate but we can’t shutdown the country completely because of the at risk population which is a very small number. Let those folks stay home as long as they want while younger able bodied Americans get the economy going as best we can to avoid disaster. Again this isn’t all all or nothing situation. There are solutions.

[Boothroyd]

Some credible sources cited within this article. Sorry if this is a repeat.

4 possible timelines for life returning to normal--The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...normal/608752/

[RWH]

Originally Posted by ronricks

This is not an all or nothing scenario. As far as China goes I don’t believe any of their numbers or advice for obvious reasons.

I can agree the numbers out of China is 100% faulty but there are other countries that we can reference besides them. It was just announced that China didn't count asymptomatic positives in their case count. They have also stop aggressively testing and only test people with fevers.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Of course the numbers change. The situation is fluid.

Understood. But I was answering your question. The ever changing numbers is why I have no faith in their answers.

Joey, please forgive me if I am making an incorrect assumption. But from your tone, it feels as though you are looking to draw me into an argument. That is not going to happen.

First, I have no desire to argue with anyone. I do have a desire to discuss and debate...and to learn.

Second, I have too much respect for you. And I have come to think of you as a friend over the years.

I think, rightfully so, your perspective is skewed from a doctors viewpoint. You trained for a huge part of your life with one goal in mind. Heal people and save lives. I will never argue with your hard earned education and experience. Never.

I will however question the experts. You yourself have said that this is unprecedented. There is no roadmap here. We simply do not know what we are dealing with.

And while you have a doctors viewpoint, I do not. My goal is not saving lives via medicine. My goal is finding the best path forward for humanity. Am I qualified to do that? In my opinion, I am far more qualified that the vast majority of the talking heads on TV. And I am certain I would be doing a better job. I say that with full confidence in my own ability and complete lack of faith in our leaders.

I have nothing but appreciation for everything you have posted here. I have learned a lot, and I my already large amounts of respect for you have only grown. Although I must admit that I do wish that we were seeing a little bit more positivity in general.

Energy begets energy. It is a fact of life. This is a challenge for sure. And we will need everyone working together to solve it.

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Have you seen how often their numbers change?

You’re right about the numbers bouncing around. They are fed by individual States reporting at different intervals.

It’s almost like watching election results precinct by precinct.

My sense is slowing it down will result in less mortality. Loosening the lockdowns would raise the case rate, as well as less effective treatments, than we may have a month from now.

But we just won’t know for another 14-30 days methinks.


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[RWH]

Mexico seems to be embracing the coronavirus with lots of enthusiasm! their president is encouraging people to hug and kiss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3z-MH-xxdI