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Old 5 December 2017, 01:40 AM   #61
Calatrava r
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Originally Posted by jon_jon View Post
Markets are soft in certain cities/countries and still very strong in other cities like NYC, London, Singapore, etc.

Best prices are found in small to medium sized cities that do not have HNWIs (high net worth individuals) who either live nearby or visit the area regularly.
I would look to the Basel fair. It has had declining visitors for three years. This year there are fewer Exhibitors and the fair is shorter. Watchtime does a very good job of reporting watch sale numbers throughout the world. They have declined for three straight years. Unheard of since the Great Depression. The large demand for a few scare models and the hype on internet forums tends to mask the reality of the overall watch market. The industry is under great pressure where it goes from here is up in the air. Clearly, we see a lot less posts of "newbies" with every grand complication in every metal as we saw say ten years ago.
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Old 5 December 2017, 01:55 AM   #62
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Thanks Neil, wise words
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Yes I think the scarcity principle has been shown to be very persuasive, even here with seasoned members and where we always preach to buy the watch and your desire not the price, but human nature will out, alas, and demand is still strong even at these inflated resales. And so the Nautilus and the D500 markets either get stronger or do not fall even after a year and a half now. With dress watches piling up in ADs, and DJs for Rolex, you would think PP would just bite the bullet and accept the market for those is not going to be significantly boosted by withholding the popular models so they should just go back to producing them at a normal rate as before and more importantly announce publicly that they will, to negate the skyrocketing resale and demand.

It is probably a good time to buy models like the 5205, but I think you can push for a better discount than that, I'd want more like $25K.

I remember passing a 15202 jumbo for $19k in Jan this year, now ADs won’t even take my name down. Seems like Daytona 116500, Nautilus 5711, RO 15202 is the new holy trinity


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Well, I'm not so sure Rolex is the right analogy here, as it's really only the Daytona that is unobtainium, while plenty of other models that fly off the shelves are still attainable and in-stock at ADs (maybe not in the UK, but you can get many models with a short wait or a reasonable search.)

My experience with AP is a lot different. I inquired about a 15407 with the Hong Kong boutique back in July (after I bought my 15202) and I was informed I could have it with about a year's wait. Along with the ceramic perpetual, those only seem to be the two real unicorns. The 15400 is still pretty readily available and in-demand, as the "entry level" piece. This is not the case with the 5711, 5712, etc.

In Canada I've been told the waitlists for the 5711, 5712, 5167, 5164 are exceeding 10 years as they only get 1/2 pieces per year and there are dozens on the list, all of whom are VIPs/existing clients. No one was willing to take me down for one.
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:07 AM   #63
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the same could be said of rolex. They could be the daytona watch company and would still sell at least as many watches as they do now with one product line, but probably more. AP produces watches no one buys in large numbers (by AP standards), yet the ones people do want you can't get. I don't think its unique to Patek and i do think having some unicorns in the portfolio makes sense as scarcity adds demand and interest... to a point.

I bought a 5712 and a 5164 because I couldn't get the AP's i wanted as those were easier for me to get. It works both ways as i have moved on from AP to Patek, probably for good. I prefer Patek now but if the AP's I wanted were easier to source I might not have ever known.
I think this forum would have got you over to Patek in the end, and you helped me get to the 5164 so you are paying it forward already.

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It seems somewhat ironic that in Thierry Stern's vision of not wanting to become a one watch company, it has been thrust on them whether they like it or not. And in doing so, they're probably missing out on a ton of sales.

As I said earlier, I've seen quite a few anecdotes of people walking over to AP when they can't get a Nautilus or Aquanaut. It's a bad move IMO, because these customers would be ones who would be potential buyers for the 5205/5235 etc, but won't anymore because they've been soured by their experiences trying to get the first one. Maybe not flood the market and still keep them desirable, but the grey market has a large portion of the market cornered and that can't be good.

And now instead of being a "first Patek", the SS models are becoming like incentive awards for VIP/repeat Patek Philippe clients which seems completely counterintuitive.
Well the PP sales guy told me to forget the Nautilus and buy a VCO, so I don't think they can mention the Audemars word just yet , but the forums and SM are surely pushing the 15202 as the alternative and prices of that and 400 are climbing. Def strange that the base models are now used as rewards for the grand comp buyers, world's turned upside down.

Were you told 1 year for the Perp ceramic? That's not too bad. Resale is 25% over at the moment so not outrageous.
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:12 AM   #64
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I think this forum would have got you over to Patek in the end, and you helped me get to the 5164 so you are paying it forward already.
Im sure it would have. Patek was far more intimidating to me than AP and i dont know why, but it was. Always admired from afar but never honestly thought I would own one.

All the threads on how to pronounce Patek properly didn't help, when i was first looking
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:16 AM   #65
tng11
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Well the PP sales guy told me to forget the Nautilus and buy a VCO, so I don't think they can mention the Audemars word just yet , but the forums and SM are surely pushing the 15202 as the alternative and prices of that and 400 are climbing. Def strange that the base models are now used as rewards for the grand comp buyers, world's turned upside down.

Were you told 1 year for the Perp ceramic? That's not too bad. Resale is 25% over at the moment so not outrageous.
It's the 15407 that I should expect by mid-next year. However, I'm letting a family member take my spot.

I'm hoping that good karma will mean a 5712 will come... that one has been a real frustrating one to find.
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:17 AM   #66
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It's the 15407 that I should expect by mid-next year. However, I'm letting a family member take my spot.

I'm hoping that good karma will mean a 5712 will come... that one has been a real frustrating one to find.
you get the 15407 ill trade you straight up for the 5712

My AD can get me Pateks, but seriously not any AP im interested in
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:29 AM   #67
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"Def strange that the base models are now used as rewards for the grand comp buyers, world's turned upside down."


Agree. Locking out potential first time buyers from modestly priced popular sport PPs can't bode well for future sales to that same group of the dress and more complicated models those buyers might want to add next. Those very same models struggling big time now.
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:31 AM   #68
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you get the 15407 ill trade you straight up for the 5712

My AD can get me Pateks, but seriously not any AP im interested in
I'd rather be in your shoes. I have the one and only AP I want these days, and the door is open for me to get other hard to find pieces (which I don't want.) Whereas I can't get a single Patek that I want. Funny how this world works.

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"Def strange that the base models are now used as rewards for the grand comp buyers, world's turned upside down."


Agree. Locking out potential first time buyers from modestly priced popular sport PPs can't bode well for future sales to that same group of the dress and more complicated models those buyers might want to add next. Those very same models struggling big time now.
Maybe it's just me, but the attitude with which I've been confronted with trying to get a 5712 does kind of sour me from getting other complicated Patek references in the future.
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Old 5 December 2017, 04:36 AM   #69
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Maybe it's just me, but the attitude with which I've been confronted with trying to get a 5712 does kind of sour me from getting other complicated Patek references in the future.
I agree with this. Patek and Rolex salesman are about the same in that regard in the UK. Its infuriating.

My current AD isnt like that so im happy, but it took a lot of that attitude from various AD's to finally find my current AD.
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Old 5 December 2017, 08:50 AM   #70
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When I was at the big Regent's St Patek AD I was grilling the salesman about how they never have sports models and maybe I went on about TS as well and probably the D500 and the whole market too, and the exasperated salesman, after telling me the VCO is the better watch, then asked me twice if I was working undercover for PP. I had to show him my gold Subc to finally pacify him, but clearly he is under pressure and a bit paranoid. So it was nice to terrorise them back for a change.
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Old 6 December 2017, 12:39 AM   #71
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TS lifts Nautilus production and that's all his company will be known for... he'll lose a great deal more in brand equity for the sake of a brief period of lots of sales. And this period WILL be brief, while the Nautilus remains a la mode. It won't remain hot forever, as things always go in and out of fashion...and then what happens?

His problem is not Nautilus/Aquanaut or anything else other than he makes far too many of his other pieces, regardless of Chinese/Far Eastern demand. From his current collection (ex Nautilus/Aquanaut), only a handful of pieces retain value like they used to, only a handful are "hard to get", and now his overall brand is following the likes of Breguet and ALS as making beautiful financial liabilities... And this was NOT the case before.

I can't see ANY of his current pieces doing well at auction years from now. And given that "VALUE" is key tenet in his own PP philosophy, and the brands prestige has been so centrally based on auction results (in which PP have themselves participated to support values) and "financials" then he's screwed up the brand.

CUT PRODUCTION. Simple as that. Just my 2c.


PS. The 5205R is GORGEOUS.

P.P.S And no I'm not bitter. I got my 5711 A after only a few months a list from my very kind AD.
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Old 6 December 2017, 02:50 AM   #72
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TS lifts Nautilus production and that's all his company will be known for... he'll lose a great deal more in brand equity for the sake of a brief period of lots of sales. And this period WILL be brief, while the Nautilus remains a la mode. It won't remain hot forever, as things always go in and out of fashion...and then what happens?

His problem is not Nautilus/Aquanaut or anything else other than he makes far too many of his other pieces, regardless of Chinese/Far Eastern demand. From his current collection (ex Nautilus/Aquanaut), only a handful of pieces retain value like they used to, only a handful are "hard to get", and now his overall brand is following the likes of Breguet and ALS as making beautiful financial liabilities... And this was NOT the case before.

I can't see ANY of his current pieces doing well at auction years from now. And given that "VALUE" is key tenet in his own PP philosophy, and the brands prestige has been so centrally based on auction results (in which PP have themselves participated to support values) and "financials" then he's screwed up the brand.

CUT PRODUCTION. Simple as that. Just my 2c.


PS. The 5205R is GORGEOUS.

P.P.S And no I'm not bitter. I got my 5711 A after only a few months a list from my very kind AD.


Agreed. Cutting production and investing some money in the backend servicing would help a lot.


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