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Old 29 March 2020, 03:12 AM   #31
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There’s a large group who have paid over MSRP and are holding onto every remaining thread of hope it doesn’t go back down
I don’t see why they would. That would not make them any better than the people wishing financial harm on the greys.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:13 AM   #32
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Not getting your luxury watch at the price you want and then complaining about it’s not fair????? Talk about first world problems.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:15 AM   #33
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Quickest way to find out is to call a gray and start negotiating your best price on a 5711 or white Daytona C. Let’s us know what you come up with.
Or call a gray and get the best price on a Batman/Pepsi and compare it to their best price a mere 3-4 weeks ago?

Even the Daytona has dropped
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:16 AM   #34
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I’m confused. It’s already happening. Two months back a new jubilee batman was around $14.5k. They’re now openly advertised at $13k. I’ve seen used offered at leas than $12k here.

It’s not a case of if. It’s already happening.
When the AD's open back up and realize their long list of potential buyers has dwindled drastically, a lot of new customers will get the call for those " hard to get " SS models. Then the supposid scarcity of such models disappears because everyone suddenly has that hard to get reference. The market then shifts from 2x msrp at greys to 20% off MSRP at the AD with stocked cases.

The longer the governement keeps the economy locked down the faster this will happen.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:16 AM   #35
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Not getting your luxury watch at the price you want and then complaining about it’s not fair????? Talk about first world problems.
Truth indeed.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:17 AM   #36
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Or call a gray and get the best price on a Batman/Pepsi and compare it to their best price a mere 3-4 weeks ago?

Even the Daytona has dropped
My point exactly.

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Old 29 March 2020, 03:18 AM   #37
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When the AD's open back up and realize their long list of potential buyers has dwindled drastically, a lot of new customers will get the call for those " hard to get " SS models. Then the supposid scarcity of such models disappears because everyone suddenly has that hard to get reference. The market then shifts from 2x msrp at greys to 20% off MSRP at the AD with stocked cases.

The longer the governement keeps the economy locked down the faster this will happen.
There’s absolutely some truth to that. But it also depends on how much stock Rolex will release when all this ends because they won’t keep in mind everything you just wrote. Rolex absolutely doesn’t want to see the value decrease at any level. How would that help them?
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:19 AM   #38
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I don’t see why they would. That would not make them any better than the people wishing financial harm on the greys.
Greys made their money by gouging on luxury items. Back door deals with AD's to create a shortage and drive up prices artifically. No tears will be shed for them. Its not a sustainable business model as we are about to see as they end up flooding the markets trying to liquidate faster than their counterparts. It will be a race to the bottom.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:25 AM   #39
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Why does everyone think Rolex cares that their time pieces go for more money on the grey market? There is a reason why they have an MSRP. They get their money when the watch is sold to the AD, their job is done.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:25 AM   #40
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Rolex absolutely doesn’t want to see the value decrease at any level. How would that help them?
Its not going to help them. They are a luxuy good. They will have the choice to sell their watches at whatever the market will purchase them at or go out of business. If we see times worse than the great depression like many speculate, then we also can speculate that you will be able to go into any Rolex AD and get a much better deal than 20% off MSRP. The sudden turn of the tide that raises all ships can also put them on the rocks. Rolex nor any other luxury brand will be immune to the fallout from this.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:28 AM   #41
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Greys made their money by gouging on luxury items. Back door deals with AD's to create a shortage and drive up prices artifically. No tears will be shed for them. Its not a sustainable business model as we are about to see as they end up flooding the markets trying to liquidate faster than their counterparts. It will be a race to the bottom.
I just don’t know what to do with a statement like this. Apparently you never sold a car or a house or probably anything. You seem to not understand how capitalism works.

I’ll tell you what I’ll do. You source a picture for me of one of our trusted sellers, or any Grey dealer forcing a buyer to pay the premium prices at gunpoint or under threat and I’ll support your cause and belief system. How about it?
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:32 AM   #42
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The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:34 AM   #43
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I just don’t know what to do with a statement like this. Apparently you never sold a car or a house will probably anything. You seem to not understand how capitalism works.

I’ll tell you what I’ll do. You source a picture for me of one of our trusted sellers, or any Grey dealer forcing a buyer to pay the premium prices at gunpoint or under threat and I’ll support your cause and belief system. How about it?
A house doesn’t have set price, house is valued based on location, size, comps condition. A new car sold by a dealer can’t be sold over MSRP even if they’re flying out the door. Many Porsche dealers got fined for forcing buyers to pay extra for the new 911. And no, Greys do not force anyone to pay their premiums, but no one forced them to buy from flippers asking for premiums either, they made their bed and now the market is dumping and they will hurt since there are literally no more flippers/speculators left. Us WIS who complain about greys gouging will purchase from ADs in the coming months. Sorry not sorry.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:34 AM   #44
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The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis.
Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet.
Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:35 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by bay-dweller View Post
I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.
I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:38 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Cool watch View Post
Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.
Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:39 AM   #47
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Cool Watch gets it. Good post.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:40 AM   #48
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I just don’t know what to do with a statement like this. Apparently you never sold a car or a house will probably anything. You seem to not understand how capitalism works.

I’ll tell you what I’ll do. You source a picture for me of one of our trusted sellers, or any Grey dealer forcing a buyer to pay the premium prices at gunpoint or under threat and I’ll support your cause and belief system. How about it?
I have sold houses and cars. I flip boats, cars and guns. I understand capitalism and flipping very very well.

I never said greys or trusted sellers held anyone at gunpoint. The fact is greys and flippers artificially drove the market up by buying all the stock of a common item and created a false shortage causing an inflated market. As a buyer you had the choice to buy from the grey at 2x or wait for an AD. With the economy grinding to a hault, major job and business loss, and a GDP retraction of 12% !! You can expect the glut of buyers of any item at 2x the original MSRP to basically dry up over night. This is very very simple economics.

If you bought any item at 2x msrp at this point, you are the person left standing in the game of musical chairs.

Give this book a read. Thomas Sowell is one of my favorite authors.

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Old 29 March 2020, 03:40 AM   #49
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Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Lol please don’t tell me you think this won’t have lingering effects. He’s simply being rational.

Three MILLION, not hundred thousand, MILLION new unemployment claims, business and cities still on lockdown, the virus growing exponentially. You think even if the virus completely disappeared this week, things would just pop back to normal? Not a chance.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:40 AM   #50
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I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.
One of the best parts about Greys is they also bring us discounted watches. In fact that was the case most of the time just three years ago. Not on the hot watches like Daytonas, 5711’s and new releases but on most everything else. Heck even AP sold at a discount back then.

We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:42 AM   #51
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Lol please don’t tell me you think this won’t have lingering effects. He’s simply being rational.

Three MILLION, not hundred thousand, MILLION new unemployment claims, business and cities still on lockdown, the virus growing exponentially. You think even if the virus completely disappeared this week, things would just pop back to normal? Not a chance.
The fundamentals of the economy are still there and extremely strong. There’s absolutely no reason why the stock market can’t recover remarkably fast and unemployment right behind it as soon as this virus ends. And it will happen sooner rather than later.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:45 AM   #52
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Let’s all not forget that before virus the hype was steadily decreasing ...
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:46 AM   #53
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Lol please don’t tell me you think this won’t have lingering effects. He’s simply being rational.

Three MILLION, not hundred thousand, MILLION new unemployment claims, business and cities still on lockdown, the virus growing exponentially. You think even if the virus completely disappeared this week, things would just pop back to normal? Not a chance.
I wish people would understand that the US economy is not in a good place and the recovery is not going to be a V. We’ll be very lucky we end up with an L. There are way to many optimists calling a bottom, the coming week is going to be very bad for us and we will reach new bottoms.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:46 AM   #54
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Let’s all not forget that before virus the hype was steadily decreasing ...
I agree with that. Also it appears supply was getting better from Rolex at least. All my AD friends were telling me that
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Old 29 March 2020, 04:32 AM   #55
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Very interesting to read everyone's thoughts on the Rolex market and the plight of resellers. Seems everyone ignored what the brand itself may do. Once the economy returns to work, My guess is that Rolex will only supply top AD's in every market. This has the potential to push the number of AD's down as they will perform poorly and will potentially be dropped. Full cases are not the luxury brand style, that leads to discounting so it's doubtful that Rolex accelerates production. If there are bargains to be had, whether from the AD or the reseller, the time is probably right now. My guess is soon, the only inventory out there is at your reseller where there prices will begin to look good. My.02.
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Old 29 March 2020, 04:33 AM   #56
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One of the best parts about Greys is they also bring us discounted watches. In fact that was the case most of the time just three years ago. Not on the hot watches like Daytonas, 5711’s and new releases but on most everything else. Heck even AP sold at a discount back then.

We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.
I never hated the long term, established grey dealers and in fact have happily purchased from the in the past. Think along the lines of Bob's Watches or Bernard down in in Texas.

What I do have a level of hate for is the guy showing off how he has 10 BLROs and 7 white dial Daytonas and looks and acts like the worst kind of stereotypical used car dealer. I don't mind so much if he gets his a$$ handed to him.
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Old 29 March 2020, 04:35 AM   #57
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I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c





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Old 29 March 2020, 04:35 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Patton250 View Post
The fundamentals of the economy are still there and extremely strong. There’s absolutely no reason why the stock market can’t recover remarkably fast and unemployment right behind it as soon as this virus ends. And it will happen sooner rather than later.
I agree with this. What you have is a temporary (whether weeks or months, it's still temporary) event essentially freezing segments of the economy. While we are feeling this event much more in our everyday lives than the 2008 financial crisis, it is arguably less impactful long term. The jobs that are being frozen will be in extremely high demand once the crisis is over.
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Old 29 March 2020, 04:36 AM   #59
Oystersteel92
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Originally Posted by Rado63 View Post
Very interesting to read everyone's thoughts on the Rolex market and the plight of resellers. Seems everyone ignored what the brand itself may do. Once the economy returns to work, My guess is that Rolex will only supply top AD's in every market. This has the potential to push the number of AD's down as they will perform poorly and will potentially be dropped. Full cases are not the luxury brand style, that leads to discounting so it's doubtful that Rolex accelerates production. If there are bargains to be had, whether from the AD or the reseller, the time is probably right now. My guess is soon, the only inventory out there is at your reseller where there prices will begin to look good. My.02.
Rolex has a skilled work force that they won't be keen on letting go. This means they have to move metal as it were. It's just like the car manufacturers...it's often cheaper to use incentives to move metal than it is to reduce production.

The AD's that have shelled out to remodel their stores or opened new ones to Rolex's high standards will also want to move metal, even at a discount.
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Old 29 March 2020, 04:46 AM   #60
Patton250
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Originally Posted by Rado63 View Post
Very interesting to read everyone's thoughts on the Rolex market and the plight of resellers. Seems everyone ignored what the brand itself may do. Once the economy returns to work, My guess is that Rolex will only supply top AD's in every market. This has the potential to push the number of AD's down as they will perform poorly and will potentially be dropped. Full cases are not the luxury brand style, that leads to discounting so it's doubtful that Rolex accelerates production. If there are bargains to be had, whether from the AD or the reseller, the time is probably right now. My guess is soon, the only inventory out there is at your reseller where there prices will begin to look good. My.02.
Exactly. 100% agree. Well put

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Originally Posted by Oystersteel92 View Post
I never hated the long term, established grey dealers and in fact have happily purchased from the in the past. Think along the lines of Bob's Watches or Bernard down in in Texas.

What I do have a level of hate for is the guy showing off how he has 10 BLROs and 7 white dial Daytonas and looks and acts like the worst kind of stereotypical used car dealer. I don't mind so much if he gets his a$$ handed to him.
While I don’t hate that guy I have to admit that was pretty stupid of him to post those online for everyone to see.
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