the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[padi56]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Personally, what's worrying me is the fact that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Right now Wuhan virus' mortality rate is around 2-3%. That difference, together with it spreading like wildfire, is huge.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Some people love to panic

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Spartacus

Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

Check the chart, look at the facts. IMHO China is playing catch up and is far more embarrassed than scared.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

Still need to consider the mortality rate is 2-3x influenza. So if the same amount of people contract this, the mortality numbers will swell beyond influenza fatalities. Most of these would likely be in China and lesser developed countries.

Still too early to determine if there is panic or not. This thing needs to peak out before that assessment can accurately be made.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by 77T

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


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Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.

I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 77T

I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


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Expertise in helicoptering and virology...thanks for your insights in the current events...

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

Credible source....?
WHO and CDC say nothing of that sort...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

CDC is political.



Coronaviruses can persist on inanimate surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in the Journal of Hospital Infection.

Researchers analyzed 22 studies on coronaviruses, including literature on SARS and MERS. An analysis revealed that the viruses normally survive on surfaces between four and five days, but can remain infectious for up to nine days. Low temperatures and high air humidity increase the lifespan.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...udy-finds.html

[swish77]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.

[envuks]

Originally Posted by swish77

For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.

With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases

I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. I’m 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone who’s died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didn’t know anyone who died from the flu. You also can’t catch the same strain of the flu more than once.

I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before it’s all said and done

The US is basically dong nothing for prevention

Don’t panic, but it’s very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by envuks

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.



With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases



I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. I’m 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone who’s died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didn’t know anyone who died from the flu. You also can’t catch the same strain of the flu more than once.



I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before it’s all said and done



The US is basically dong nothing for prevention



Don’t panic, but it’s very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going

Well put. A lot of these too cool to care posts will not age well.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by envuks

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.

With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases.

It's apples and oranges. You can't extrapolate and compare to flu with such a relatively small sample size on the coronavirus.

Again, let's be cautious with all diseases, but the panic here is not logical.

[envuks]

Originally Posted by swish77

It's apples and oranges. You can't extrapolate and compare to flu with such a relatively small sample size on the coronavirus.

Again, let's be cautious with all diseases, but the panic here is not logical.

I’m don’t really see this as apples to oranges. Yes, the sample size is vastly different and it’s possible that the rates change as more coronavirus data comes in. However, this is a decent parallel based on today’s known data.

I’m not advocating for panic, but I think everyone should be taking this very seriously. All of our best defense is lots of hand washing and no touching of your own face/mouth. Those are difficult habits for a lot of people. Personally, that's what my family and I are focused on now. Getting in the habit by calling each other out if we see face/mouth touching.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-19-face-masks

Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths

The truth about the protective value of face masks and how easy it is to catch Covid-19

Hannah Devlin Science correspondent


Fri 28 Feb 2020 13.59 GMTFirst published on Fri 28 Feb 2020 11.00 GMT


Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally