Covid scare..

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by Trog

I don't know anyone who died from Covid. I don't even know anyone who had any symptoms.

But I do know three people who died over the last 3-months because they were too scared to go to the hospital when they should have.

The hysteria over this "pandemic" has taken more lives than the virus itself.

+1

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 101031-28

+1

+ 2

[zengineer]

It was very real early on for me. A guy who works for me (and his wife) tested positive way back in March just after we started working from home. We were 95% sure he picked it up after the work from home started based on the timeline now of course we are in the clear. He had it bad, lost 22 of his maybe 180 lbs. His wife barely had any symptoms. She is a nurse and they assume she brought it home.

Then over the past week we've been filtering back into the office and another guy in my group had a scare with his son very similar to the OP. Just got the sons negative result an hour ago but the "contact tracing" we've had to do in the last 4 days have been nuts. My guy had been at vendors here and in Canada but not in the office....but other employees were at the vendors with him and later at some of our facilities..and on and on.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Trog

I don't know anyone who died from Covid. I don't even know anyone who had any symptoms.

But I do know three people who died over the last 3-months because they were too scared to go to the hospital when they should have.

The hysteria over this "pandemic" has taken more lives than the virus itself.

Has it though?

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Trog

I don't know anyone who died from Covid. I don't even know anyone who had any symptoms.

But I do know three people who died over the last 3-months because they were too scared to go to the hospital when they should have.

The hysteria over this "pandemic" has taken more lives than the virus itself.

I'm pretty sure this is statistically untrue but I presume you were making a hyperbolic point and not trying to be serious.
Excess deaths are published by country and tell a pretty clear story to anyone who can read a basic graph.
I do agree that the reaction to it has been over the top though. It is a disease which badly affects a certain narrow demographic and which has very little effect on the majority of people. Yet everyone is being battered by the economic fallout of a policy which aims to protect a slim minority.

[THC]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm pretty sure this is statistically untrue but I presume you were making a hyperbolic point and not trying to be serious.
Excess deaths are published by country and tell a pretty clear story to anyone who can read a basic graph.
I do agree that the reaction to it has been over the top though. It is a disease which badly affects a certain narrow demographic and which has very little effect on the majority of people. Yet everyone is being battered by the economic fallout of a policy which aims to protect a slim minority.

Well said Uggi

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by THC

Well said Uggi

Agree, very well put Uggi!

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm pretty sure this is statistically untrue but I presume you were making a hyperbolic point and not trying to be serious.

Excess deaths are published by country and tell a pretty clear story to anyone who can read a basic graph.

I do agree that the reaction to it has been over the top though. It is a disease which badly affects a certain narrow demographic and which has very little effect on the majority of people. Yet everyone is being battered by the economic fallout of a policy which aims to protect a slim minority.

Maybe it's just a language barrier on my side and my English is worst than I thought but what I read here is that the economy is more important that the lives of people.

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[Uggi]

Originally Posted by fmc000

Maybe it's just a language barrier on my side and my English is worst than I thought but what I read here is that the economy is more important that the lives of people.

Inviato dal mio SM-T719 utilizzando Tapatalk

It isn't possible to separate the economy from health in my opinion. The two are inextricably intertwined and health depends on the economy to a huge extent - in a damaged economy healthcare suffers. This is not just on the supply side (an economic slump means reduced investment in healthcare and R&D) but also on the demand side (joblessness and increased poverty creates its own health issues, physical and mental).
The OECD did a report on this not too long ago and described the economy and health as a "vital relationship".
http://https://oecdobserver.org/news...tionship_.html

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by superdog

Not so.

Only a very small few, relatively speaking, will regret it.

And some of those small few will also be people that took it very seriously. Nothing short of a complete and total lockdown will stop the spread. It’s simply a matter of time considering it’s not going away and it’s highly contagious.

Curious though that the previous hot spots appear to be stable or even reporting reductions. While the areas not previously “hot” are now spiking.

Data suggests if 60% wear masks the transmission rate drops below 1 and the virus declines. It does not take a total lock down to control this thing, common sense, social distancing (i.e. 6 feet apart), and solid hand washing. People get lazy. I went up to pick up my bike after some significant repairs, the bike dude who has a mask, but around his neck, then comes up and goes in for a hug, a hug!! I am in there frequently but come on! Just to enter the store I had to stand at the door, and there are dots to keep people 6 feet apart, and yet lapses and he put us both at risk. This is how things spread, people get lazy. Its really not rocket science, its just people are not disciplined.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

I have a theory...

Yet to be disproven, but time will tell. The prior hotspots were hot for months. Likely many thousands of people were exposed to it and had no idea. Anti-bodies or no, it appears possible that people built up a tolerance.

When the hot spots shut down, so did the rest of the country. But the rest of the country had less exposure. No tolerance built up. Now that it spread there, and they are all out and about they are getting hit with it.

I can tell you first hand that people in the northeast are packing beaches, homes, and there are all sorts of gatherings outside where people are super close to one another. I see hugging, kissing and hand shaking. People are also indoors as many have returned to work.

Yet the numbers continue to go down? That seems hard to explain. If the NY area explodes once again, I am wrong. If it doesn't, I don't see how I can be wrong.

I wonder if any other year if we were to shut down socialization for some other reason late in the cold/flu season, if one of the many other coronavirus family mutations or rhinoviruses would've not had a similar delayed infection rate. Not too different to when someone goes to a different part of a world and is exposed to germs not normally seen at home. Or one is in reduced contact with society and gets hit harder by a germ others see often. We're all carries of tons of germs that may or may not make us sick that we would never identify and we don't unless we test for them specifically. For years people just generically called them nasty bugs/colds when hit severely. We still don't identify every influenza virus. So my roundabout way of saying you are correct, it is tough to disprove anything over the shorter-term.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I wonder if any other year if we were to shut down socialization for some other reason late in the cold/flu season, if one of the many other coronavirus family mutations or rhinoviruses would've not had a similar delayed infection rate. Not too different to when someone goes to a different part of a world and is exposed to germs not normally seen at home. Or one is in reduced contact with society and gets hit harder by a germ others see often. We're all carries of tons of germs that may or may not make us sick that we would never identify and we don't unless we test for them specifically. For years people just generically called them nasty bugs/colds when hit severely. We still don't identify every influenza virus. So my roundabout way of saying you are correct, it is tough to disprove anything over the shorter-term.

You bring up a great point.

Live in Mexico and you can drink the water all day long. Visit from the US and you will have the “runs” for a week from drinking the water.

War of The Worlds was the same concept. The aliens died when they were exposed to germs that are common to everyone and everything on this planet.

I believe, until proven otherwise, that people in previously infected areas have mostly developed a resistance. Again, time will tell. But it appears a very plausible explanation as to why prior hotspots continue to plateau.

Shocking to me that this theory has not been floated on the news yet. Clearly, at a minimum, it’s something worth considering in the overall fight against this virus.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Data suggests if 60% wear masks the transmission rate drops below 1 and the virus declines. It does not take a total lock down to control this thing, common sense, social distancing (i.e. 6 feet apart), and solid hand washing. People get lazy. I went up to pick up my bike after some significant repairs, the bike dude who has a mask, but around his neck, then comes up and goes in for a hug, a hug!! I am in there frequently but come on! Just to enter the store I had to stand at the door, and there are dots to keep people 6 feet apart, and yet lapses and he put us both at risk. This is how things spread, people get lazy. Its really not rocket science, its just people are not disciplined.

And they never will be. It’s not in our DNA.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I wonder if any other year if we were to shut down socialization for some other reason late in the cold/flu season, if one of the many other coronavirus family mutations or rhinoviruses would've not had a similar delayed infection rate. Not too different to when someone goes to a different part of a world and is exposed to germs not normally seen at home. Or one is in reduced contact with society and gets hit harder by a germ others see often. We're all carries of tons of germs that may or may not make us sick that we would never identify and we don't unless we test for them specifically. For years people just generically called them nasty bugs/colds when hit severely. We still don't identify every influenza virus. So my roundabout way of saying you are correct, it is tough to disprove anything over the shorter-term.

They also say that children that grow up with pets are healthier adults in the long term. Why?

Because they grew up with significantly more germs. Their immune system got stronger because it had to work harder.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Uggi

It isn't possible to separate the economy from health in my opinion. The two are inextricably intertwined and health depends on the economy to a huge extent - in a damaged economy healthcare suffers. This is not just on the supply side (an economic slump means reduced investment in healthcare and R&D) but also on the demand side (joblessness and increased poverty creates its own health issues, physical and mental).
The OECD did a report on this not too long ago and described the economy and health as a "vital relationship".
http://https://oecdobserver.org/news...tionship_.html

Another excellent (IMHO) Ugi, and Fabio, it is not lives versus lifestyle. I compare this to an experience I had in my Navy Squadron. The Safety Officer was giving a lecture on the carrier and he said to appease him, he would love it if we could wrap up all the jets and leave them in the hangar, no activity-no flights would equate to no accidents. I compare it to now. A lot of people have succumbed, and I will pray for them, but more have succumbed to heart disease and cancer during the same time period. The health officials would like us to “put the jets in the hangar” and not do anything at all to curb the pandemic. Society and the economy wants to go out and do things as normal to make a living and simply live; opposite ends of the spectrum. I believe the solution is somewhere in the middle, precautions are essential, but we have to go on living too. And to the OP, I wish you continued health

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by superdog

[/B]

And they never will be. It’s not in our DNA.

Well your right about that. The problem is this lack of discipline will get some sick, and the rest hurt by an economy that keeps trying to reopen and then gets flare ups. The less trust people have that things are safe the worse it is for the economy. Lots of local outfits going bankrupt and many large ones as well. Hitting commercial real estate and the government can’t keep printing money to help everyone and every business. So the reality is everyone pays a price for those among us that are undisciplined.


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[Fabrice M]

What I find amazing, is that such a simple thing such as wearing a mask when you go out isn’t being practiced by everybody, and has become for some strange reason a personal freedom issue. If we all wear a mask, we are all protected. We need to be more empathetic toward each other.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

What I find amazing, is that such a simple thing such as wearing a mask when you go out isn’t being practiced by everybody, and has become for some strange reason a personal freedom issue. If we all wear a mask, we are all protected. We need to be more empathetic toward each other.

I’m not sure masks should be requirements. The type of masks used in masses are not necessarily great. N95 have an impact on breathing and oxygen levels if worn for a longer period. Cloth masks have shown in some studies to harbor bacteria and other germs, adversely impacting the wearer.


https://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-...us-health.html

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

They also say that children that grow up with pets are healthier adults in the long term. Why?

Because they grew up with significantly more germs. Their immune system got stronger because it had to work harder.

Man’s best friend.

[gnuyork]

But it's my understanding that masks are not for your own protection, but for others by keeping your germs to yourself, potentially minimizing spread of infection. Makes sense to me, and I choose to do so, and I do not feel my rights are infringed upon like some do. And it's only when I'm in public stores anyway so it's not like it's even a serious bother in the grand scheme of things.

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

What I find amazing, is that such a simple thing such as wearing a mask when you go out isn’t being practiced by everybody, and has become for some strange reason a personal freedom issue. If we all wear a mask, we are all protected. We need to be more empathetic toward each other.

Agree. We in Europe wear masks and the number of cases is decreasing for almost every country; in US 12 States are revising their reopening policies because the pandemic there is out of control with 35k new cases per day and that are States that are experiencing three new records per week.

We were hit before them, they could have learned from us but they didn't and now they are paying the price, who knows how many more lives could have saved with a more conscious attitude.

Not to mention Brazil where the number of positives recorded is about 40% of the total tests, meaning that the real number of positives is at least 10 times higher.

But I stop here because I don't want this thread to be closed.

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[TswaneNguni]

Mask
Hands
Distancing

Ask yourself ,are you too stupid to remember things in three ?

Its seems 99 percent of the world's population are .

My wife and I are doctors and we are meticulous at home and work .

[superdog]

Originally Posted by fmc000

Agree. We in Europe wear masks and the number of cases is decreasing for almost every country; in US 12 States are revising their reopening policies because the pandemic there is out of control with 35k new cases per day and that are States that are experiencing three new records per week.

We were hit before them, they could have learned from us but they didn't and now they are paying the price, who knows how many more lives could have saved with a more conscious attitude.

Not to mention Brazil where the number of positives recorded is about 40% of the total tests, meaning that the real number of positives is at least 10 times higher.

But I stop here because I don't want this thread to be closed.

Inviato dal mio SM-T719 utilizzando Tapatalk

I’m not disagreeing. protocols should be followed.

But do you think some of the reason is that immunity has developed due to the earlier exposure you talked about. You said yourself that you got hit first.

Areas getting hit hard in the US are not the previously hard hit areas. Rather those areas continued to go down.

The US is a big place. Maybe the virus is simply spreading and immunity is building. At least I hope that’s what’s happening.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by superdog

I have a theory...

Yet to be disproven, but time will tell. The prior hotspots were hot for months. Likely many thousands of people were exposed to it and had no idea. Anti-bodies or no, it appears possible that people built up a tolerance.

When the hot spots shut down, so did the rest of the country. But the rest of the country had less exposure. No tolerance built up. Now that it spread there, and they are all out and about they are getting hit with it.

I can tell you first hand that people in the northeast are packing beaches, homes, and there are all sorts of gatherings outside where people are super close to one another. I see hugging, kissing and hand shaking. People are also indoors as many have returned to work.

Yet the numbers continue to go down? That seems hard to explain. If the NY area explodes once again, I am wrong. If it doesn't, I don't see how I can be wrong.

So your theory is that the metro New York area has some herd immunity due to the wide spread? Intuitively, I agree. But I did read that for herd immunity to be effective, there needs to be 50-70% of the population to be infected. Even with asymptomatic cases, I don’t think that we are anywhere close.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

So your theory is that the metro New York area has some herd immunity due to the wide spread? Intuitively, I agree. But I did read that for herd immunity to be effective, there needs to be 50-70% of the population to be infected. Even with asymptomatic cases, I don’t think that we are anywhere close.

That is my theory.

I don’t know if it’s correct. I don’t know if the estimate of 50-70% needing to be infected is correct. I don’t know if someone needs to be infected, or asymptomatic or just have some level of exposure to begin building immunity.

My wife tested positive for it. Negative for antibodies. I’ve heard of quite a few people saying the same.

I admit there is so very much I don’t know.

But based on what I’m seeing the previously hard hit areas are either plateauing or reducing numbers. I don’t know if that is still accurate either. But it does coincide with the latest data I’ve seen.

[Dr.Brian]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m not disagreeing. protocols should be followed.

But do you think some of the reason is that immunity has developed due to the earlier exposure you talked about. You said yourself that you got hit first.

Areas getting hit hard in the US are not the previously hard hit areas. Rather those areas continued to go down.

The US is a big place. Maybe the virus is simply spreading and immunity is building. At least I hope that’s what’s happening.

I agree with your assessment, but it is not a factor of immunity that’s driving things but disease prevalence in the community. People in NY, NJ, Philly, etc. had significant disease burden. They locked down, use masks, etc. Still are using them, limiting contact with others, etc. They saw the effects first hand. When I was in the Outer Banks last week on vacation, few wore masks because they think, like the hot spots in decline they see on the news that they are also in decline. The news flash is that their spikes are not the second wave, it’s the first wave. They shut down and are reopening at the wrong times. The shut down should have been data driven and it wasn’t. It was panic driven. My friend lives in a small southern city. He’s a primary care physician. His practice had 3 patients get COVID. His hospital had 5 admissions and one death. They locked down for 3 months for nothing when they could have just worn masks, washed hands, etc. Just as the reopening is data driven through phases, the shut down should have been data driven and phased in. Of course that requires access to testing, etc. which wasn’t widely available initially. Instead of insisting that everyone who wants a test can get a test, leadership should have been demanding tens of millions of testing supplies being widely available early. Then they could have actively managed the closures. It was an avoidable disaster that continues to unfold.
And then there’s the science deniers and “personal freedom” folks. Just wear the f’ing mask in public when you’re around people, in stores, etc and use hand sanitizer. Don’t like n95’s, don’t use them unless you’re a front line worker on the job. Don’t like cloth, get paper surgical ones, they’re widely available. Or just get better cloth masks. I’ve seen many, most?, that are way too tight. It’s not an N95, it doesn’t have to fit like one. And maybe wash it. It’s cloth.

[superdog]

I’m sorry. I can’t agree. While I do agree that you are far more qualified in regard to the medical data, I disagree with how people are behaving in the tri-stare area.

For at minimum of a month, I’m seeing the vast majority out and about. Hand shaking, hugging, kissing etc.

Huge demonstrations. Beaches are mobbed. House parties etc. Yes, I see people wearing masks. But it’s a huge minority.

I’m watching it unfold first hand. And I don’t know anyone that has tested positive for at least a month. I haven’t even heard of anyone. And trust me, that’s news that people love to gossip about.

If these areas start becoming hot again, I’m wrong. But I can assure you that people here are adhering to protocol only when going into stores and areas that mandate masks. Otherwise, not so much.

[superdog]

I do agree that these spikes are first wave. For these areas. That actually supports my theory.

Will following protocol help? I’m sure it will. But it’s too contagious to contain.

[Dr.Brian]

It’s still related to disease prevalence. The former hot spots are not hot now because the disease is not very active there. It’s active in other locations. It’s like the Asian brown marmorated stink bug that was very active in our area a few years back, and now the spotted lantern fly. They were very active in the area, everywhere. Multiple in the house, solarium, etc. I was flushing several a day, then they moved on. They’re still here, but not in my solarium. The prevalence in the community is much less here, and maybe now they’re in MD? The hot spots flattened the curve, slowed the spread, etc. but now the disease prevalence is high elsewhere. If it comes back here, that’s the second wave. The community doesn't have enough exposure for herd immunity, and the antibody testing doesn’t seem to support widespread asymptotic contact. 100% of the medical folks I know that got tested for antibodies without any known infection didn’t have antibodies. Penn Med and CHOP are doing a couple big antibody studies in their health care workers.

[mailman]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Mask
Hands
Distancing

Ask yourself ,are you too stupid to remember things in three ?

Its seems 99 percent of the world's population are .

My wife and I are doctors and we are meticulous at home and work .

It seems you're arrogant and condescending with your statement.