5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by pam66

cool. and what are the estimates for 5711A? at least a factor of 5 up to now i suppose.

I haven't found any reliable information on 5711A production numbers. In 2017 Mstanga mentioned that he estimated 4000 - 5000 pieces of 5712A had been produced.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

irrational exuberance at the bubble top + niche fad of particular style.

here's a little horror show fact that explains some of the Chinese madness (being close to money printing helps and their offspring creating bubbles in luxury baubles like Patek):

"The PBOC released its annual "Financial Stability Report" Friday night....it's a real page turner. The Chinese have "created" US$50.1 Trillion in "Junk Financial Assets" in just four short years"; to wit:

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2019/01/

that's 50 TRILLION USD in 4 years! printed out of thin air! to prop up fraud! and is it any wonder why certain niche luxury brands do well?

ps edit: at the end of all bubbles you get aberrations and last gasps, and it seems like the less expensive (relative to say homes which are crashing) luxury price spikes, this nautilus nonsense being excellent bubblicious case in point.

so you are saying the luxury watch market and other luxury markets are 99% driven by the chinese (corruption income)? possible....

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by pam66

so you are saying the luxury watch market and other luxury markets are 99% driven by the chinese (corruption income)? possible....

no, i would never say such a large specific %ge. but it certainly is not an insignificant part of the price spike no doubt. they are serial bubble blowers in nonsense like this.

just like the Bordeaux wine craze and how the Chinese blew that bubble sky high, and then like all bubbles, prices crashed; to wit:

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/red_obsession_2013/

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by AK797

You are trying to say this is the top, but you are new here and we were saying the market was toppy this time last year after large rises during 16 and 17 so no one can predict what is the top or indeed how long a plateau at the top will last or what will cause the bubble to burst or rather balloon to deflate. This is a watch market and it quite unlike any other in terms of efficiency and liquidity, and thus we are just all really watching and learning.

i am actually being specific re: certain extremely overvalued models w/in the nautilus line; namely, the one that i have been researching, which is the discontinued ss chronograph. given what i've tracked, it has of late spiked even harder than i believe the overall line circa 16 and 17. apologies i wasn't clear.

w/ rumoros of a nautilus chrono refresh this year, the 5980/1A [w/ black dial which tended to be lower priced than the regular blue, in some instanced priced in excess of $100k lol] will imnsho correct pretty sharply at some point. again, i am patient and am not "passionate" or obsessed enough to need it right away or even any time soon. this is just part of my research and i chimed in a bit here. thx.

ps and maybe it's a coincidence that over that last few days there are 2 separate threads here in PP invoking Minksy Moment and Bubble, but that says something to a newb like me.

pps when the 5980/1A caught my eye, i had no idea of pricing or anything else about it; of course, i knew PP as an ultra high quality brand, but that was about it. my gf says it looks dated and like something American Psycho would wear, and i agreed with her, except that the chrono feature makes it a bit more modern and utilitarian such that i can time all the horrible things i can do to her...

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Everything is quantifiable, and there's nothing in katapatek's analysis which can't be read in a newspaper. But the sad fact remains that nobody can really tell exactly what will happen, and more importantly when it will happen. Meanwhile, there is a big disconnect between the rising Nautilus asking prices and the falling markets.

'Everything' is certainly not quantifiable, sorry. Folks that are getting on Ketapatek for educating rolexpatek363 on market economics should understand that it's obvious he has a better grasp on the subject. Market valuations, whether stocks or watches, are driven by psychology. We've entered a bear market in stocks after a debt driven bubble -- at some point people will acknowledge this and it will normalize most other asset prices from real estate to collectibles. 5711 will be no exception. Unless it's discontinued, lol.

Asking prices are one thing yet 5711s listed too much over $50K aren't moving anymore but the ones in the upper 40s are. This indicates prices have already peaked.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rollyp

'Everything' is certainly not quantifiable, sorry. Folks that are getting on Ketapatek for educating rolexpatek363 on market economics should understand that it's obvious he has a better grasp on the subject.

Hi there, and thanks for the comment.

What I meant was that one can assign a percentage probability to any particular outcome under analysis. This is what quant traders do, among other things. Getting the percentage correct, or near correct is how they make money. Anybody claiming that they "know" what will happen in a particular market is not telling the truth. Believing is one thing, and knowing is another.

[s.m.b.]

I just performed three searches at Chrono24 using the following search terms; "white dial 5711," "blue dial 5711," and out of curiosity "15202st." Here are the results:

white dial 5711 = 53 watches currently listed

blue dial 5711 = 88 watches currently listed

15202st = 51 watches currently listed (blue date wheel only)

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

I just performed three searches at Chrono24 using the following search terms; "white dial 5711," "blue dial 5711," and out of curiosity "15202st." Here are the results:

white dial 5711 = 53 watches currently listed

blue dial 5711 = 88 watches currently listed

15202st = 51 watches currently listed (blue date wheel only)

the pateks carry a larger premium so i suspect there is a higher flip motivation not necessarily that there are more.

I do think Patek do make more 5711 than AP makes 15202's though because the AP doesnt have the same crazy demand and that one is more artificial low supply vs the huge 5711 demand.

If AP called it a 40mm watch, demand would shoot up alot. It wears bigger than a 5711 IMO

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

the pateks carry a larger premium so i suspect there is a higher flip motivation not necessarily that there are more.

I do think Patek do make more 5711 than AP makes 15202's though because the AP doesnt have the same crazy demand and that one is more artificial low supply vs the huge 5711 demand.

If AP called it a 40mm watch, demand would shoot up alot. It wears bigger than a 5711 IMO

I definitely believe the 15202 demand has to a certain degree been created through an artificial low supply. Far from my area of expertise, but these numbers seems to suggest the 5711 demand and current grey market pricing are misaligned. South of $45,000 USD, I imagine many of the blue dials would begin to move.

[shafran]

If you look at the famous resell auction site and look at sold prices and asking prices, you will see the avg selling price these days is approx 45k, with blue higher than white.

[shafran]

asking price

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by shafran

asking price

Yep, so I imagine blue dials would move pretty fast if the asking was closer to $45,000.

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Hi there, and thanks for the comment.

What I meant was that one can assign a percentage probability to any particular outcome under analysis. This is what quant traders do, among other things. Getting the percentage correct, or near correct is how they make money. Anybody claiming that they "know" what will happen in a particular market is not telling the truth. Believing is one thing, and knowing is another.

Very well then, in that case the percentage probability of the 5711 blue dial (if still in production) has a 0% probability of selling for $100K in the next 18 months, as you predict. This is assuming no Venezuelan style hyperinflation takes place ; )

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Very well then, in that case the percentage probability of the 5711 blue dial (if still in production) has a 0% probability of selling for $100K in the next 18 months, as you predict. This is assuming no Venezuelan style hyperinflation takes place ; )

Why not wait and see? This will be fun.

0% is clearly wrong, it's got to be a non-zero probability based on what we've seen so far.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Why not wait and see? This will be fun.

0% is clearly wrong, it's got to be a non-zero probability based on what we've seen so far.

correct. it's somewhere between 0% and 100%. in centrally planned "markets" where the normal ecosystem has been subverted, it's very hard to ascribe accurate probabilities as evidenced by hedge funds and even the quasi-celeb quants getting their asses handed to them of late.

who knows when this patek sport bubble blows, but blow it certainly will given the current lol premiums over msrp.

this is what happens when crazy neo-keynesian ivory tower econ phd's that ran the fed with zero private sector experience (bernanke and yellen) were in charge. Powell is raising into another crash, just like every time before. you can see the charts of tech bubble and housing bubble with similar low interest pumps, rate increases and consequent dumps. it's not mere coincidences, since 1913.


skoooooch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo14xGYwWd4


Trump on the horn with The Plunge Protection Team all morning:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workin...ancial_Markets

[rolexpatek363]

One very interesting thing I've just found out is that the 16610LV (Kermit) is offered for between £15k and £40k, with several over £30k.

If (if) a Kermit is worth, say £30k, then a £100k 5712 is looking very possible.

[dwatcher]

Economics cannot be completely interpreted, there are different economic models and it's not a science which can be practically demonstrated in some cases. Anyone claiming that they know which way things are heading is merely speculating. Its only advisable to know the degree of point in the prediction. For me, i say take what the market gives you if you can afford it at the moment.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

One very interesting thing I've just found out is that the 16610LV (Kermit) is offered for between £15k and £40k, with several over £30k.

If (if) a Kermit is worth, say £30k, then a £100k 5712 is looking very possible.

Apples and oranges as regards the 5711 and 16610LV. Firstly, there is an overall SS Rolex shortage, and thus some buyers are looking at older Rolex models. The LV fits in here. This does not appear to be the case with would-be PP buyers picking up the PP 3800. There's quite a few of these around for $20-40k. Secondly, the average price of an LV is around $9-13k. Last year, you could pick an LV for around $10k. Thus, the barrier to entry is much lower. In 2017, I saw them for $8k. Thirdly, the expensive LV models have the Flat 4 bezel, which is a collectors piece. There's quite a few of those around. Yes, they are increasing in value, but your average LV wont hit 30k sterling. Flat Four bezel LVs are already knocking on that door. However, I wonder how many are selling. I see lots on Chrono24.

I'm not saying a 5712 wont hit 100k sterling. However, if buyers aren't picking them up at the mid 50k sterling mark, unless PP suddenly discontinues them, I don't see why they would for 100k.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Apples and oranges as regards the 5711 and 16610LV. Firstly, there is an overall SS Rolex shortage, and thus some buyers are looking at older Rolex models. The LV fits in here. This does not appear to be the case with would-be PP buyers picking up the PP 3800. There's quite a few of these around for $20-40k. Secondly, the average price of an LV is around $9-13k. Last year, you could pick an LV for around $10k. Thus, the barrier to entry is much lower. In 2017, I saw them for $8k. Thirdly, the expensive LV models have the Flat 4 bezel, which is a collectors piece. There's quite a few of those around. Yes, they are increasing in value, but your average LV wont hit 30k sterling. Flat Four bezel LVs are already knocking on that door. However, I wonder how many are selling. I see lots on Chrono24.

I'm not saying a 5712 wont hit 100k sterling. However, if buyers aren't picking them up at the mid 50k sterling mark, unless PP suddenly discontinues them, I don't see why they would for 100k.

Check current LV asking prices, you are out of date (as I was). They are much more expensive than I thought. I think this thread is not about the 3800.

How do you know nothing is selling, btw? Are you following every ad?

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

correct. it's somewhere between 0% and 100%. in centrally planned "markets" where the normal ecosystem has been subverted, it's very hard to ascribe accurate probabilities as evidenced by hedge funds and even the quasi-celeb quants getting their asses handed to them of late.

who knows when this patek sport bubble blows, but blow it certainly will given the current lol premiums over msrp.

this is what happens when crazy neo-keynesian ivory tower econ phd's that ran the fed with zero private sector experience (bernanke and yellen) were in charge. Powell is raising into another crash, just like every time before. you can see the charts of tech bubble and housing bubble with similar low interest pumps, rate increases and consequent dumps. it's not mere coincidences, since 1913.

Guys, you can mentally masturbate all you want, lol, but in reality, given the circumstances I laid out, 5711s just aren't going to sell for $100K in 18 months. Therefore I'm 100% confident that there's a 0% chance of that happening.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

One very interesting thing I've just found out is that the 16610LV (Kermit) is offered for between £15k and £40k, with several over £30k.

If (if) a Kermit is worth, say £30k, then a £100k 5712 is looking very possible.

PT Barnum was so right. "Worth" in the midst of the biggest bubble possibly in the history of mankind is a tricky word to quantify.

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Guys, you can mentally masturbate all you want, lol, but in reality, given the circumstances I laid out, 5711s just aren't going to sell for $100K in 18 months. Therefore I'm 100% confident that there's a 0% chance of that happening.

i'd say 97.5-98% they won't hit $100k. i'd say 96% they won't reach $85k in next 3-6mos.

i'd say they go below msrp w/in 12mos w/ a 60% chance.

[rolexpatek363]

I'm not denying we are living in strange times with watch prices, just commenting.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

i'd say 97.5-98% they won't go hit $100k. i'd say 96% they won't reach $85k in next 3-6mos.

i'd say they go below msrp w/in 12mos w/ a 60% chance.

Let's see. I'm wagering 5711 $100k; 5712 £100k by June 2020 (probably equivalent amounts, come April).

<rubs hands>

[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Let's see. I'm wagering 5711 $100k; 5712 £100k by June 2020 (probably equivalent amounts, come April).

<rubs hands>

timestamped ;p

[rolexpatek363]

Oh, I don't mind losing, it's just for fun. And I don't have a dog in the race in that my PPs are both keepers.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Check current LV asking prices, you are out of date (as I was). They are much more expensive than I thought.

How do you know nothing is selling, btw? Are you following every ad?

I’ve been following LVs for the last three years, as I seriously considered breaking my “one-watch” rule last year. I’ve passed on the LV, but follow them still. Yes, right now, they look like they’re all $12k plus, with the Flat Fours in the $20k+ range. Disconcerting. However, I just think there’s a bigger market for the LVs amongst new buyers and collectors than the 5711/5712. Different forces are driving LV prices. I’d be absolutely stunned to see a non-Flat Four hit $30k. I wouldn't, on the other hand, be surprised to see 5711/5712s go to $60k—assuming if PP does something with them in the near future, such as limiting supply or discontinues the models.

No, I don’t see every ad. However, anecdotally, I’ve got about 20 U.S. based flat fours saved in my Chrono. None have moved in a year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

i'd say 97.5-98% they won't hit $100k. i'd say 96% they won't reach $85k in next 3-6mos.

i'd say they go below msrp w/in 12mos w/ a 60% chance.

Agreed. If they're not selling for mid $50k, but are for mid $40k, unless PP lowers production or discontinues the models, I don't see prices increasing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

i'd say 97.5-98% they won't hit $100k. i'd say 96% they won't reach $85k in next 3-6mos.

i'd say they go below msrp w/in 12mos w/ a 60% chance.

Aw, c'mon, now you're just pulling numbers out of your arse.

[tyler1980]

FWIW WF sold a 5712 @ nearly £45k ($57000) two days ago. I know because it disappeared and they emailed me several times to try to get mine i refused to sell them after a lowball. So these pieces are moving at these prices.... and now they don't have one

I think the 5711's are moving too.... slowly but at a true market price they don't move lightning fast.

I still think the upward price momentum has got to be sowing though.