Eta Blackbay Noir rare???

[Jcy90]

Hi all! Was wondering what you guys think of the scarcity of this model? I heard the strap version is even more rare than the bracelet?! Lots of speculation on value down the road. What are everyone’s thoughts? Thanks!

[richrichy]

They’re both rare. Have seen 25% be the. Production number for strap models.

[Jcy90]

?

[Polarbears]

The BBN ETA is rare period the strap model is extra rare to mostly collectors. More bracelet version were produced and sold.

$5000 is my prediction still by summer. Right now the demand has been filled by resellers making big mistakes flipping their watches. Once the collectors hold onto a majority of these, finding one will be near impossible. Then the craze will really begin. Buy now, get box papers and receipt if possible and fight for a strap card. You can always add a bracelet. Mine is currently sporting the rivet bracelet and it’s perfection.

[Laszlo]

Speculation is the key. A fine watch but I don't see it happening. But, that doesn't mean it shouldn't part of any collection.

[sickened1]

I love mine. Collectible or not, I'm keeping this baby! Btw, I also have the bracelet and leather strap to complete the set.

[perry731]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

The BBN ETA is rare period the strap model is extra rare to mostly collectors. More bracelet version were produced and sold.

$5000 is my prediction still by summer. Right now the demand has been filled by resellers making big mistakes flipping their watches. Once the collectors hold onto a majority of these, finding one will be near impossible. Then the craze will really begin. Buy now, get box papers and receipt if possible and fight for a strap card. You can always add a bracelet. Mine is currently sporting the rivet bracelet and it’s perfection.

I want to LOL every time you said Strap version is more sought after than the bracelet version and will be more valuable in the future. Strap can easily be replaced. I don't really care if it's really 25% of production are Strap or not. If the warrantly card states that it's Strap version, it will just tell people that your BBN is forever US$300 cheaper than the bracelet version. In the long run, it's much harder to get the ETA version of the bracelet because it's been discontinued.

Cheers

[HogwldFLTR]

Happy to have BBN on Leather and BBR on bracelet and both ETAs. Have an extra strap as well! We'll see how they pan out as far as long term value.

[Jcy90]

I think the strap is nicer as i bought it lol. The tudor bracelet is mehh imho

[meganfox17]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

The BBN ETA $5000 is my prediction still by summer

I like your confidence and self belief MJ.On the contrary, I'm threading cautiously, treating the ETA Black Rose like a case study and make detail observations over a period of time. I'm expecting the market price of Ref 79220N to float around the US$ 5 K mark by the Summer of 2020 .I wish I could get one now but I just have other more important non watch related priorities

[capote]

Originally Posted by Polarbears

Buy now, get box papers and receipt if possible and fight for a strap card.

IMO this is the reason it will not become a collectable, there simple will be too many in perfect condition, with unused straps and complete with receipts around. I have never seen a watch before that more people wanted to become a collectible before. Look at all the threads here lately, on this exact model. It will be interesting to follow the development.

[teo]

Bracelet version will be more collectible as now they replaced it with new rivets type of bracelet. U can always purchase a leather strap since the strap with inhouse movement is still in production.

[Takonwong]

I have one on a strap. It's my go to watch for when I just pop out. I bought it because it was cheap (relatively) and it wore really well on my wrist, been following the threads but at the time had no idea it was 'rare' or sought after, the predicted values are interesting!

[unknown]

Originally Posted by capote

IMO this is the reason it will not become a collectable, there simple will be too many in perfect condition, with unused straps and complete with receipts around. I have never seen a watch before that more people wanted to become a collectible before. Look at all the threads here lately, on this exact model. It will be interesting to follow the development.

I understand your point but things which are imo more important

1/ rare or not everybody seems to like it so the demand is already there

2/ it is cheap so most watch enthusiasts can buy this without hurting themselves, most of us are used to buy more expensive watches. Again, this increases the demand. You can always add one to your collection

3/ since is is so cheap, you don't take a risk buying one, do you? You almost can't loose money if you would want to sell it

4/ again I refer to chrono 24. Not one for sale NOT 1! If you think a Comex, Paul Newman, Patek 5004, heck even the sky moon tourbillon is rare ... you'll find plenty of them on that site. You can use the 'notification search' on chrono24, doing so you'll get an email if somebody puts one for sale. The last 3 till 5 weeks I got 3 emails. 3 ref 79220N for for sale. ALL 3 of them were sold within 1 hour. Try it yourself

5/ We don't know if they made 1000 - 3000 or even 5000 of these. Even if it's 10000. Do you have any idea how many Rolex sub 16610LV were made in the more or less 7 years they made them ? Or Daytona 116520 or the newer 116500 ? Probably 20.000 or even more PER YEAR.
Let's assume 5000 of these BBN .. that's nothing for such a brand. Patek sells 100.000 euro watches as a limited edition (1300 pieces)


And once again, I honestly don't care if it will go up much or not. I don't need to make money on my watches. Besides if it goes up with a few K over the next years, I won't sell it anyway.
The only thing I say today.... BUY IT if you can get it but make sure you like it and don't do it for the money.
I'm 99,99% sure within 3 or 5 years a lot of us will curse if they read this again in 2023 ;-) Curse that they didn't get one back in 2018 for that silly price between 2750 and 3500 euro :-)

[fleabag]

Can’t wait too see this thread in @ 5 years from now ...... what will the future predict


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[fleabag]

Also on a quick note ..... would it be better to purchase a ETA BBN OR a HARRODS Edition given the choice 🧐


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[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by fleabag

Also on a quick note ..... would it be better to purchase a ETA BBN OR a HARRODS Edition given the choice 🧐


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Harrods could be well made into perpetuity. The Black Rose is already discontinued.

[fleabag]

The BBN is hard to source in the


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[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by perry731

I want to LOL everytime...

You understand collectibility I know you do. What matters most is the watches provenance. Box and paperwork. Have them. They will matter. The actual bracelet and strap are still being produced. The watches along with the corresponding paperwork are not.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by teo

Bracelet version will be more collectible as now they replaced it with new rivets type of bracelet. U can always purchase a leather strap since the strap with inhouse movement is still in production.

Not true and you can order both bracelets still from AD’s. Paperwork and boxes will determine what one has in the future.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by capote

IMO this is the reason it will not become a collectable, there simple will be too many in perfect condition, with unused straps and complete with receipts around. I have never seen a watch before that more people wanted to become a collectible before. Look at all the threads here lately, on this exact model. It will be interesting to follow the development.

I’ve also seen this year several Tudor’s without box and papers. There’s only a few thousand.

[Polarbears]

Originally Posted by meganfox17

I like your confidence and self belief MJ.On the contrary, I'm threading cautiously, treating the ETA Black Rose like a case study and make detail observations over a period of time. I'm expecting the market price of Ref 79220N to float around the US$ 5 K mark by the Summer of 2020 .I wish I could get one now but I just have other more important non watch related priorities

We’ve seen $4300 already over the last few weeks. The flippers soon will be out of stock and then the prices will escalate as the people who own these will not be selling...Stay tuned. I’d also watch the Black Bay Burgundy, which yes was made for several years but those soon will gain more buzz and I bet the prices on those hit a stable $3000 used sooner rather than later.

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by Takonwong

I have one on a strap. It's my go to watch for when I just pop out. I bought it because it was cheap (relatively) and it wore really well on my wrist, been following the threads but at the time had no idea it was 'rare' or sought after, the predicted values are interesting!

Likewise.

I bought mine as soon as it was announced that they were going to in house movements and large case etc., so I knew it was a short production run, but, still surprised the numbers are as low as people are saying.......and I bought the strap version purely because of comfort, as now have periodic issues with skin condition if wearing metal bracelets on watches.

Mine certainley won't ever be BNIB condition

[capote]

Originally Posted by unknown

I understand your point but things which are imo more important

1/ rare or not everybody seems to like it so the demand is already there

2/ it is cheap so most watch enthusiasts can buy this without hurting themselves, most of us are used to buy more expensive watches. Again, this increases the demand. You can always add one to your collection

3/ since is is so cheap, you don't take a risk buying one, do you? You almost can't loose money if you would want to sell it

4/ again I refer to chrono 24. Not one for sale NOT 1! If you think a Comex, Paul Newman, Patek 5004, heck even the sky moon tourbillon is rare ... you'll find plenty of them on that site. You can use the 'notification search' on chrono24, doing so you'll get an email if somebody puts one for sale. The last 3 till 5 weeks I got 3 emails. 3 ref 79220N for for sale. ALL 3 of them were sold within 1 hour. Try it yourself

5/ We don't know if they made 1000 - 3000 or even 5000 of these. Even if it's 10000. Do you have any idea how many Rolex sub 16610LV were made in the more or less 7 years they made them ? Or Daytona 116520 or the newer 116500 ? Probably 20.000 or even more PER YEAR.
Let's assume 5000 of these BBN .. that's nothing for such a brand. Patek sells 100.000 euro watches as a limited edition (1300 pieces)


And once again, I honestly don't care if it will go up much or not. I don't need to make money on my watches. Besides if it goes up with a few K over the next years, I won't sell it anyway.
The only thing I say today.... BUY IT if you can get it but make sure you like it and don't do it for the money.
I'm 99,99% sure within 3 or 5 years a lot of us will curse if they read this again in 2023 ;-) Curse that they didn't get one back in 2018 for that silly price between 2750 and 3500 euro :-)

I see you points and I hope it will be sought after since ETA IMO is more historically correct for Tudor, although I wonder how much of a premium it will command since “inhouse” being all the rage as of late and you could get a new one at an AD with a discount. Time will tell

[Jcy90]

This is a rare / hard to source watch. I dont care what anyone says. Tbh the price is so affordable that you can not lose. Even if you paid full retail youre getting great value for money. Plus the rose has a much nicer lacquer dial than the in house movement one does. All in all in a few years from now. Im sure that this watch will increase in value as the internet is making the world a smaller place, where everyone has access to all information and Products. This watch is definitely a short run. As long as its under 5000 units produced i am very confident in a price surge. Anything limited/discontinued that has to do with Rolex os bound to shoot up on value.

[Jcy90]

Plus the bracelet is nothing special. If this watch came with the pelagos bracelet that would be a different story entirely. Then the bracelet would be extremely sought after.

[perry731]

Originally Posted by Jcy90

Plus the bracelet is nothing special. If this watch came with the pelagos bracelet that would be a different story entirely. Then the bracelet would be extremely sought after.

Not saying that the bracelet of ETA is any special. I agree that the Rolex ones are much better in quality especially the clasp. Just in general, sport watch with bracelet is more popular than leather strap. Plus, it is harder to purchase the genuine ETA bracelet. The genuine leather strap is much easier to find as the in-house movement BB are all using the same old strap. I am saying that if you want to collect the full genuine set of ETA BBN, bracelet one is a more logical choice. That’s why I don’t get some ppls said they would rather collect the strap version even if Tudor really produced fewer than bracelet version.

[HORNBLOWER]

The most important aspect of the Noir is getting the registration card with it. A Noir without the card is a Rouge with the bezel insert and crown tube changed.

[JLM3]

If recent selling price is any indication it will be ...

[MARTIN1264]

Originally Posted by teo

Bracelet version will be more collectible as now they replaced it with new rivets type of bracelet. U can always purchase a leather strap since the strap with inhouse movement is still in production.

Kinda agree with the above statement besides Bracelets are very expensive from the AD... about 850.00 I know, I called.