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Old 1 June 2019, 08:19 PM   #31
Wimbledon
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In two years people will look at these threads and comment on how crazy people were to pay over retail for a watch.
I agree 100%.
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Old 1 June 2019, 09:36 PM   #32
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This is a balloon not a bubble as we are in an oligopoly not a liquid and efficient market, so the price pressure will have to be huge and persistent to break the will of the cartels, the other successful cartels of the world and S. America don't seem to suffer huge ups and downs with the markets so this will be more like that than a stock or share.
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Old 1 June 2019, 09:41 PM   #33
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The bubble will be short lived with an economic downturn. However if the economy maintains current level, then I don't foresee that the Rolex bubble will burst within the next few years.
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Old 1 June 2019, 10:23 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uhtred59 View Post
In two years people will look at these threads and comment on how crazy people were to pay over retail for a watch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wimbledon View Post
I agree 100%.
No, in two years people will be saying "Wow, I wish I had bought in 2019, now I'm having to pay 30% more for the same thing!"

Reason: The political situation in the United States will remain static for the next 6 years and thus the economy will continue to be very robust. Expect steady growth despite all the Chicken Littles claiming there's going to be a crash.

In my area houses are being built at a crazy pace and ALL are selling before they are even complete. We're not in a bubble in terms of economy, the growth is real. People are back at work and the government is staying out of the way.

[And that's all I wish to say; thread likely to get locked otherwise]
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Old 1 June 2019, 10:25 PM   #35
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Great thing is I’m going to wear my MSRP Sub and not be concerned about what it’s worth

This board is worse than Rennlist when it comes to “value” threads:D


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Old 1 June 2019, 10:35 PM   #36
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I'm going to laugh in 2 years if prices are higher. Too many expecting a fall right now. Remember Rolex is the strongest brand.

What falls first? A 5711, green SUBC or a Daytona?
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Old 1 June 2019, 10:39 PM   #37
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Don't scratch the blue chip on the wrist !!

Lying in stickers waiting for the highest bidders in the vaults of the greys .

Fun isn't it ?

Disclaimer : DJ41 on the wrist as I type this .
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Old 1 June 2019, 11:40 PM   #38
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This board is worse than Rennlist when it comes to “value” threads:D
This

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Old 2 June 2019, 12:15 AM   #39
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Interesting list


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Old 2 June 2019, 12:50 AM   #40
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Alot of people in denial I see.....May God have mercy on your souls. ;)
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Old 2 June 2019, 02:28 AM   #41
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There isn’t going to be a drop. Get in now while you still can.
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Old 2 June 2019, 06:49 AM   #42
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If a global recession hits us, everything will come down in the grey market, sports steel models will be available at ADs with little wait and possible discounts.

Rolex, supreme teasing machine
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Old 2 June 2019, 07:13 AM   #43
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Quote:
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This !

A year and half ago , i decided to buy a SS Daytona C White Dial and as it is a very long story in AD , i went to a trustable grey here in Istanbul , he asked from me 16.000 USD , i said what ???? IMO , it was an insane price in those days ... So i didnt bought it .. I thought that after few years when the bubble pops , i will buy it less then 16.000 USD but the real life became different then my guess ...

I bought the SS Daytona C for 21.000 USD few months ago ...
I guess this cycle will be different than every single one that
Had happened before, probably because you are more handsome.
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Old 2 June 2019, 07:25 AM   #44
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If i know the current trend 2 years ago..i would have stock up few SS Sub,Gmt and Daytona and few more grand richer.

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Yeah, and if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

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Old 2 June 2019, 07:31 AM   #45
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How much was a DaytonaC two years ago? What are they trading at now?

I doubt the sought after models will drop to MSRP, let alone below.

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Old 2 June 2019, 07:37 AM   #46
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IN the 80's you couldn't buy a Gold Day Date in the entire state of TX. Today, Rolex is shutting down many of those AD's. With the internet and Instagram, Rolex in the last few years has gotten crazy. This WILL pass as everything does. If you don't believe me, ask people who where on waiting lists in the 80's to buy a Day Date. Today you can buy them at a discount or as a budle. This WILL pass. Ask you AD's and if they are honest, like mine, they will say the same thing.
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Old 2 June 2019, 07:37 AM   #47
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Have to laugh at the tulip reference.

But when you look at graphs with a steep incline like that there is usually a steep decline after. A peak, some uncertainty and an offload from ‘investers’ who have more money than they can afford to lose getting out. A nice relatively steady increase is what you want.

I’d imagine the majority of people who’ve paid silly amounts for a Daytona can afford it anyway so a crash is a moot point to them. It’s the people that can’t really afford them that’ll suffer, the type that worry about the slightest scratch harming their investment.

Get into Vintage Seiko chronographs, it’s a lot cheaper and less stress. Actually don’t, I like buying them.

That's cool! The date window displaying the "V" is curious: I'm guessing it's Vendredi - french for Friday. Or, is it the Roman V - five? Either way, that Seiko is like a teleport back to the, what...early '70's? Again, very nice indeed.

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Old 2 June 2019, 07:48 AM   #48
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When steel is selling for more than gold, its a bubble.
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Old 2 June 2019, 08:17 AM   #49
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People will stop buying over the price of retail little by little since now some Rolex AD are banning customers that they realize buy right away just to resell higher than the official dealers. Rolex does not profit on this, and it turns a great brand into a grey market of trades, which obviously is not something a big swiss brand like that would want to be associated with even thought it's already happening.
Not saying all of those people should get banned, but the intentions are clear when someone gets 6, 7 rolex, all in same year, and puts them up for sell.
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Old 2 June 2019, 08:20 AM   #50
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Ya you're missing something from the list...what bubble?

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Old 2 June 2019, 08:42 AM   #51
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When the markets crater you'll find all of the insanity in the rear view mirror. And a lot of bag holders wondering WTF just happened??
Exactly when the Economy drops so will demand!
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Old 2 June 2019, 08:54 AM   #52
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I have been watching SS prices since I got into the hobby in 2002 and through two recessions, I have only seen prices go one way - UP! There is no bubble to burst, there is only the way it is. Prices may stop rising as fast but they will not go back the way.
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Old 2 June 2019, 08:59 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by VicLeChic View Post
If a global recession hits us, everything will come down in the grey market, sports steel models will be available at ADs with little wait and possible discounts.

Rolex, supreme teasing machine
I don't think so. Folk who can afford to buy Rolex are not really affected by recessions, those who are, just make way for those who are not.. the demand is so high.
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:02 AM   #54
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I don't think so. Folk who can afford to buy Rolex are not affected by recessions.
Wrong. Middle and upper middle class potential buyers are affected by recessions. They can lose their jobs, get scared and cut on luxury goods. The super rich are not affected, those buy high horology.
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:10 AM   #55
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when steel is selling for more than gold, its a bubble.
+1
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:14 AM   #56
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I donno. No one knows. I don’t think watches work like other assets during a recession. Even if they do go down. You still have a watch. That’s not so bad.
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:28 AM   #57
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Wrong. Middle and upper middle class potential buyers are affected by recessions. They can lose their jobs, get scared and cut on luxury goods. The super rich are not affected, those buy high horology.
..but Rolex only make around 800,000 watches per year with a small % of those being SS Professional models and demand is very high, there are 7.5billion of us on the planet. The in-demand SS Rolex watches on the OP's list WILL still sell out, fast.
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:36 AM   #58
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List of all the Hottest Rolex Watches and models likely to drop after the bubble pops

Quote:
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I don't think so. Folk who can afford to buy Rolex are not really affected by recessions, those who are, just make way for those who are not.. the demand is so high.


No? Perhaps true for the most part. But one thing I know for sure is this: The minute I am 100% sure a recession won’t even make me blink, I’ll certainly stop buying Rolex and move into something more exclusive and prestigious.

Love Rolex, so don’t get me wrong... but much like a BMW anybody on a “normal” salary can own one. Such isn’t the case for Haute Horology or a Pagani.


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Old 2 June 2019, 09:40 AM   #59
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Something's gotta give. Sooner the better imo. SS - 18K how ridiculous.
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Old 2 June 2019, 09:41 AM   #60
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There is no bubble. It is a different business model to what we have been accustomed to in the past. This model will stay and this model can easily tighten liquidity to a stand still.

Let's couple this with the fact that people like chasing things that are hard to get (usually products with scarcity value), so it makes me think the market is over. I am certainly not spending anymore on Rolex and have been very pleased with my Apple Watch.
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