ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

eijiboy · 22 August 2022, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

I can tell you for sure that in 2021, that watch wasn't a "gain history" watch sitting around at a dealer ... It was about $10K above MSRP on the gray.

It was likely bought, worn for a year or two... lightly refinished and being sold "As new" by a less than reputable dealer on MODA (surprise surprise)...

Not in 21. All pm watches gain a lot during early 22 when the panda was 50k. Mid 21 likely its msrp plus tax-at grey. Chrono history showed 42-44k. If thats your assumption i guess my nib 114060 2019 is already used and i just buffed it to look new lol.
I guess we cant have nos anymore cause its used and just looks new

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HAL330 · 22 August 2022, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Not in 21. All pm watches gain a lot during early 22 when the panda was 50k. Mid 21 likely its msrp plus tax-at grey. Chrono history showed 42-44k. If thats your assumption i guess my nib 114060 2019 is already used and i just buffed it to look new lol

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Yeah, in 21 they were 42-44... didn't spike to 50K until 22..

but yes, in either case, if that's truly a brand new watch (And I'd give that a 20% chance of being the case).... someone is losing real money to shift it..

If it's lightly worn, and refinished, then it's selling at a fair price for pre-owned..

The fact that you can't get on at any AD right now says it all about the pricing on this watch... something smells wrong.

AbeFroman · 22 August 2022, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

I buy from the likes of WatchBox, Watch Eric, and Roman.... I trust any of them more than I trust an AD..

Roman, the guy who sold counterfeit Ray-Bans?

Screwly · 22 August 2022, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Roman, the guy who sold counterfeit Ray-Bans?

My thoughts exactly

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eijiboy · 22 August 2022, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

Yeah, in 21 they were 42-44... didn't spike to 50K until 22..

but yes, in either case, if that's truly a brand new watch (And I'd give that a 20% chance of being the case).... someone is losing real money to shift it..

If it's lightly worn, and refinished, then it's selling at a fair price for pre-owned..

The fact that you can't get on at any AD right now says it all about the pricing on this watch... something smells wrong.

Ad use it to bundle. Want s Batman? Get this wg sub and you will get it. Thats why its still not on display. And evem if they have one, theynwont display it.

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messikens · 22 August 2022, 10:14 AM

Any last moda observations for this weekend pleasure?

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1665fan · 22 August 2022, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by messikens

Any last moda observations for this weekend pleasure?

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Moda holding still…..the bottom has been reached it looks like….Pepsis at 20 and staying there

EEpro · 22 August 2022, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Moda holding still…..the bottom has been reached it looks like….Pepsis at 20 and staying there

I concur.

Pepsi at 20k
White Daytona at 31k
Gold subs and most gold DD40 at MSRP

Vince_76 · 22 August 2022, 11:36 AM

Not at the bottom. A lot of refs are still dropping. I’d also argue Pepsis are as well - they were ~22k less than 2 weeks ago

AP Royal Oaks & Offshores much lower week over week (even had an offshore in the mid teens). And a lot of them are not moving

Batman sitting in the mid-teens

Hulks also dropping ~20k now

eijiboy · 22 August 2022, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EEpro

I concur.

Pepsi at 20k
White Daytona at 31k
Gold subs and most gold DD40 at MSRP

Noticed that no panda are for sale lately. I wonder why

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HAL330 · 22 August 2022, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Noticed that no panda are for sale lately. I wonder why

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because as I predicted... those who are dumping, have dumped... inventory is going to dry up on many over the next few weeks..

Unless Rolex has decided to flood the market with more watches, supply will catch up with demand sooner rather than later.

soicanbefree · 22 August 2022, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

because as I predicted... those who are dumping, have dumped... inventory is going to dry up on many over the next few weeks..

Unless Rolex has decided to flood the market with more watches, supply will catch up with demand sooner rather than later.

I don't think this is correct even in the short-term. I'd wager on it in the medium to long term as well. (call that 1 month, 6 month, 1 year).

Nasdaq -1.5% premarket.

Many people underwater at today's prices.

No uptick in price on ANY model yet.

Wahlberg · 22 August 2022, 10:49 PM

I'm still convinced we aren't there yet.

Summer is ending and it's going to get cold again. A lot of people already can't afford food, water, electricity, gas, ... etc. Fast forward to december and good luck to everyone.

I would be cautious.

Vintyage · 22 August 2022, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

because as I predicted... those who are dumping, have dumped... inventory is going to dry up on many over the next few weeks..

Unless Rolex has decided to flood the market with more watches, supply will catch up with demand sooner rather than later.

I think this is just about right. It doesn’t look good now and unless something happens, it’ll get worse.

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JRedford · 22 August 2022, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

I'm still convinced we aren't there yet.

Summer is ending and it's going to get cold again. A lot of people already can't afford food, water, electricity, gas, ... etc. Fast forward to december and good luck to everyone.

I would be cautious.

This

eijiboy · 23 August 2022, 01:15 AM

Rg olive dial now 56500 nib

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huncho · 23 August 2022, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

I'm still convinced we aren't there yet.

Summer is ending and it's going to get cold again. A lot of people already can't afford food, water, electricity, gas, ... etc. Fast forward to december and good luck to everyone.

I would be cautious.

but are those people buying rolexes? if you can't afford any of those today then you weren't necessarily in a position to buy a rolex 2 years ago

eijiboy · 23 August 2022, 03:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

Yeah, in 21 they were 42-44... didn't spike to 50K until 22..

but yes, in either case, if that's truly a brand new watch (And I'd give that a 20% chance of being the case).... someone is losing real money to shift it..

If it's lightly worn, and refinished, then it's selling at a fair price for pre-owned..

The fact that you can't get on at any AD right now says it all about the pricing on this watch... something smells wrong.

Just to prove a point, still has some stickers so i doubt you can polished and put back the original sticker like you assume

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yachty 1 · 23 August 2022, 03:13 AM

I think alot of people bought as an investment. Was talking to someone yesterday and all he was saying to me was which one would lose the least. I always bought a watch expecting to lose just like a car. Once that equations out of the picture you will see less buyers in my opinion. They will hard pressed to buy and expect to lose 20 percent of the bat!

HAL330 · 23 August 2022, 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

I'm still convinced we aren't there yet.

Summer is ending and it's going to get cold again. A lot of people already can't afford food, water, electricity, gas, ... etc. Fast forward to december and good luck to everyone.

I would be cautious.

Somehow I don't think these were the target demographic of Rolex buyers...

Rolex watches are far more inelastic in their demand than food, water and heat...

HAL330 · 23 August 2022, 03:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Just to prove a point, still has some stickers so i doubt you can polished and put back the original sticker like you assume

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Those stickers can be replaced very easily...

Ask me how I know.

It could have been sitting around for 1-2 years as NOS, in which case it was bought before the price increase..

Or it could have been lightly worn, and refinished (and re-stickered)..

What it isn't is a 2022 with an MSRP o $40650... which would imply the seller or his source (the AD??) is deliberately losing money...

eijiboy · 23 August 2022, 03:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

Those stickers can be replaced very easily...

Ask me how I know.

It could have been sitting around for 1-2 years as NOS, in which case it was bought before the price increase..

Or it could have been lightly worn, and refinished (and re-stickered)..

What it isn't is a 2022 with an MSRP o $40650... which would imply the seller or his source (the AD??) is deliberately losing money...

Not a oem sticker. Aftermarket sure but not oem. Aftermarket are thick. It was bought 2021 before the increase. Back then people buying whatever is available and this watch hardly sells for more than Msrp. Its the ticket to hot ss watch. People buy watches they dont want and thats losing money already

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Wahlberg · 23 August 2022, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huncho

but are those people buying rolexes? if you can't afford any of those today then you weren't necessarily in a position to buy a rolex 2 years ago

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

Somehow I don't think these were the target demographic of Rolex buyers...

Rolex watches are far more inelastic in their demand than food, water and heat...

Obviously they aren't but as you can see in the past two years a lot issues have become bigger and more problematic and that affects others as well. Inflation is for everyone, some people got a lot richer but that's a small percentage as well.

It also takes the frenzy out of certain markets and people focus on the basics.

Vince_76 · 23 August 2022, 04:32 AM

Hulk sold for 18.2 and people still think we’ve bottomed out. Nah.

Rolexatlast · 23 August 2022, 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HAL330

Somehow I don't think these were the target demographic of Rolex buyers...

Rolex watches are far more inelastic in their demand than food, water and heat...

Maybe not. But over the last few years a lot of this demographic have bought Rolex watches, as they have been appreciating assets - either to keep or flip.

If we go back to Planet Normal, where Rolex watches are a cost and not a profit, then they disappear

trojanrolex · 23 August 2022, 06:37 AM

Do people not remember the market 2-3 years ago? Prices are going to keep going down. More watches get made every year not less lol it’s not some finite supply.

BogdanS · 23 August 2022, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Hulk sold for 18.2 and people still think we’ve bottomed out. Nah.

Naked or B&P?

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EEpro · 23 August 2022, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BogdanS

Naked or B&P?

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It was a 2012 card

shaunylw · 23 August 2022, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EEpro

It was a 2012 card

Yikes, someone overpaid.

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HAL330 · 23 August 2022, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Not a oem sticker. Aftermarket sure but not oem. Aftermarket are thick. It was bought 2021 before the increase. Back then people buying whatever is available and this watch hardly sells for more than Msrp. Its the ticket to hot ss watch. People buy watches they dont want and thats losing money already

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I'd be curious if it has box and papers... the one on Chrono selling for that much is no papers..

22 August 2022, 11:36 AM	#909
Vince_76 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: Orange County Posts: 1,596	Not at the bottom. A lot of refs are still dropping. I’d also argue Pepsis are as well - they were ~22k less than 2 weeks ago AP Royal Oaks & Offshores much lower week over week (even had an offshore in the mid teens). And a lot of them are not moving Batman sitting in the mid-teens Hulks also dropping ~20k now __________________ AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1

23 August 2022, 04:32 AM	#924
Vince_76 "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: Orange County Posts: 1,596	Hulk sold for 18.2 and people still think we’ve bottomed out. Nah. __________________ AP 15500ST (Silver) // ♛ Rolex 126334 (Blue Roman, Fluted, Jubilee) // Ω Moonswatch (Mission to Pluto) // G-Shock GA2100-1A1

23 August 2022, 06:37 AM	#926
trojanrolex "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2012 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 44	Do people not remember the market 2-3 years ago? Prices are going to keep going down. More watches get made every year not less lol it’s not some finite supply. __________________ 116710LN, 116610LV, 116503, 114300, 26238ST, 26424BC, 26420CE, 26240ST

22 August 2022, 10:14 AM	#906
messikens "TRF" Member Join Date: Sep 2021 Location: SFO Posts: 1,027	Any last moda observations for this weekend pleasure? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

22 August 2022, 10:49 PM	#913
Wahlberg "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Paris Posts: 3,530	I'm still convinced we aren't there yet. Summer is ending and it's going to get cold again. A lot of people already can't afford food, water, electricity, gas, ... etc. Fast forward to december and good luck to everyone. I would be cautious.

23 August 2022, 01:15 AM	#916
eijiboy Banned Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: everywhere Posts: 849	Rg olive dial now 56500 nib Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

23 August 2022, 03:13 AM	#919
yachty 1 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: ny Watch: yacht master Posts: 944	I think alot of people bought as an investment. Was talking to someone yesterday and all he was saying to me was which one would lose the least. I always bought a watch expecting to lose just like a car. Once that equations out of the picture you will see less buyers in my opinion. They will hard pressed to buy and expect to lose 20 percent of the bat!

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