Prices creeping up again?

[amphr1]

Is it my imagination or are prices starting to slowly rise again? Just watching my Moda fb group feed and the two watch I'm basing it on are the black daytona and the green sub, they seems to have gone up slightly this week. Have we hit the bottom?

[1665fan]

The summer lull is over….prices going back up for winter time it seems

[train-time]

One could only hope that the decline in prices was seasonal, but I really doubt it. I believe it's tied to the state of the economy and the money supply. I could be wrong but I believe the decline will continue to define a new market.

Black Dial 116500LN

[returntorolex]

Originally Posted by train-time

One could only hope that the decline in prices was seasonal, but I really doubt it. I believe it's tied to the state of the economy and the money supply. I could be wrong but I believe the decline will continue to define a new market.

Is this data set for a particular reference?

[GoingPlaces]

A week or two of gauging prices is hardly an indicator.

No one really knows. Larger greys are holding and thus trying to prop it up. It's really a longer game at this point.

[train-time]

Originally Posted by returntorolex

Is this data set for a particular reference?

Black Dial 116500LN

[train-time]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

A week or two of gauging prices is hardly an indicator.

No one really knows. Larger greys are holding and thus trying to prop it up. It's really a longer game at this point.

Exactly! Especially after Labor Day heading into the Fall. They have high inventory costs and are hopeful pushing this narrative. All the cheap money, low interest rates, high amounts of disposable income caused by the shutdowns with no travel are over. Interest rates have tripled, mortgage applications are at a 22 year low, home values are starting to fall, etc. We are in a transition from the "Pandemic" market to a new market that will more likely resemble the old market of a decade ago. Just my 2 cents! Have you asked for a quote to sell a piece to any of the Secondary Market Resellers lately?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Aim medium term. The FED and the ECB have only started their work.

[Vince_76]

A BNIB hulk just went for ~18.5. So no, IMO. No indication we’re at or near the bottom.

[Incroyable12]

With gas prices in Europe going through the roof I don't see how the market would get better.

[Philadelphialawyer1]

No indication of prices falling as I see it.
BLNR still going for 2x MSRP

[awu]

I think watches dropping in value in the secondary market over the last few months have found new buyers at this new price level, once these new buyers have been exhausted at this price level we will see where the market goes from there. My theory is that's why we see a flattening and many dealers are reporting strong sales numbers at the lower pricing recently. I think most everything points to further down as almost all of the factors during covid with money supply, crypto, stock market, etc are no longer present to help fuel pricing back up.

[GGGMT]

Buy buy buy!!


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[returntorolex]

Originally Posted by train-time

Black Dial 116500LN

Thank you.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

A BNIB hulk just went for ~18.5. So no, IMO. No indication we’re at or near the bottom.

No papers lol….. don’t leave that out

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

No papers lol….. don’t leave that out

Yep, still a 2022 low however. Watch only was going for ~20k several weeks ago.

[1William]

Seasonal surges and flatting and reductions continue to play into prices. With no central information source on sales the best we can do is analyze the data we have. This is to say that while we have seen reductions to hot models from Rolex/PP/AP they are still significantly high and any stock from AD's is a hit or miss.

[nocaps]

nope. dead cat bounce…

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by nocaps

nope. dead cat bounce…

Good imagery. *


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[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

A BNIB hulk just went for ~18.5. So no, IMO. No indication we’re at or near the bottom.

Originally Posted by 1665fan

No papers lol….. don’t leave that out

BNIB, and no papers...

[SwissmadeTexan]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

A BNIB hulk just went for ~18.5. So no, IMO. No indication we’re at or near the bottom.

That was a bnib hulk with no card iirc.

[SwissmadeTexan]

Fullset 2012 hulk went for $18,900 within 8 hours today. These were going for a bit lower some weeks back.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by SwissmadeTexan

Fullset 2012 hulk went for $18,900 within 8 hours today.

Was that the asking price or the actual price paid?

[AbeFroman]

Recently, I have seen more dealers posting videos of the narrative that prices are now going back up and the best time is to buy now. Latest video was Timepiece Trading based out of Miami (found on insta).

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiTR9...d=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

It’s certainly interesting because they have the biggest inventory of hype watches that has taken the biggest hit. The video seems like a bit of desperation. It’s also odd to advertise that you saved $100k off a frosted AP, it only shows it was significantly overpriced to begin with lol.

From what I’ve seen at the office, worsening dynamics of the financial markets, and looming rate increases, I see no reason why prices will recover anytime soon. I think YE will be worse. JMHO.

[TomLou]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

A week or two of gauging prices is hardly an indicator.

No one really knows. Larger greys are holding and thus trying to prop it up. It's really a longer game at this point.

Can you imagine we are supposedly discussing prices from a respectable watch company
Instead we worry what black market dealers are doing ?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by TomLou

Can you imagine we are supposedly discussing prices from a respectable watch company
Instead we worry what black market dealers are doing ?

That is all this forum has left

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by beshannon

That is all this forum has left

This is in the watchout sub-forum for a reason. If you don’t like something then don’t click on the thread?

Weren’t you one of those who complained that these threads were polluting the general sub forum? These are placed here for a reason now.

[train-time]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Recently, I have seen more dealers posting videos of the narrative that prices are now going back up and the best time is to buy now. Latest video was Timepiece Trading based out of Miami (found on insta).

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiTR9...d=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

It’s certainly interesting because they have the biggest inventory of hype watches that has taken the biggest hit. The video seems like a bit of desperation. It’s also odd to advertise that you saved $100k off a frosted AP, it only shows it was significantly overpriced to begin with lol.

From what I’ve seen at the office, worsening dynamics of the financial markets, and looming rate increases, I see no reason why prices will recover anytime soon. I think YE will be worse. JMHO.

Spot on

[Uhtred59]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

This is in the watchout sub-forum for a reason. If you don’t like something then don’t click on the thread?

Weren’t you one of those who complained that these threads were polluting the general sub forum? These are placed here for a reason now.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Recently, I have seen more dealers posting videos of the narrative that prices are now going back up and the best time is to buy now. Latest video was Timepiece Trading based out of Miami (found on insta).

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CiTR9...d=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Are they so confident to offer a buy back option if prices crashe? ahaha

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

From what I’ve seen at the office, worsening dynamics of the financial markets, and looming rate increases, I see no reason why prices will recover anytime soon. I think YE will be worse. JMHO.

The youngest people never lived such a crisis as adults and only saw assets going up. Also, for most including me, we never lived with inflation at these levels.

So most people do not understand what is happening now with the central banks, the economy and the consequences (economy and socially => behavior, etc).

Even in the banking industry, most of the asset managers have no experience in that environment.

I suspect that now we only see a resistance because some buyers are entering the market believing the king of narrative like TPG's.

The issue is that all the fuel sources that generated the last years are now... gone... and won't come back in the foreseeable future.

But who am I to predict the future? I often read advice to buy cryptos, real estate, stocks, etc because they are going to the moon real soon.