$50K Panda by Christmas?

[Benzsiam]

It will be $50k again by X-Mas of 2023.

[Nico81]

Id think they will be around $25k


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[Chiboy]

Prices will start to firm over the next month or so, but as fall gets cooler, buyers will see higher utility prices due to increasing natural gas prices. This will reign in demand for discretionary items, especially chronographs. Prices will soften until mid-December when enthusiasts will realize that they really want to wear these beautiful watches over the holidays. So there will be an increase in demand which will lead to higher prices, peaking the week before Christmas.

January and the rest of the first quarter of 2023 will be discussed in future posts.

[teck21]

All evidence points to both sides of the argument being right.


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[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Ask JacksonRain.

The answer is: Absolutely not!

Potential slight increases may be seen by beginning of December with greys for the holidays but people should be able to obtain unworn well under 40k.

Greys are holding inventory at high prices, asking well above market in many cases. But, if you are trying to flip/sell, these greys will offer you thousands, sometimes 40 precent below their asking prices, trying to offset some of their other losses, screwing desperate speculators/flippers.

Still, the market has stabilized this last 30 to 45 days, and I do see a slight increase in the next year or two for this reference.

When well it hit 50k again? Let's see what happens in 2024 when it gets discontinued on the anniversary. Jk



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[Mr. K]

Christmas 2022. My prediction 32-37k for the white face. Based on nothing more than a hunch and over 20 years on various Rolex forums.

[Ensign]

Don’t say that around a grey - they rinse guys like you.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by sojourner

Understood, thanks everyone for the feedback.

So are sites like these not realistic as they have 116500 above $40K (at least the white dials):

https://www.bobswatches.com/rolex-daytona-1.html

He’s one of the big trusted grey dealers around… so his prices also include his reputation.

It’s a great watch for sure but also very hyped… Personally I don’t feel that reference should be over $22k-$25k max…

We shall see


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[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Prices will start to firm over the next month or so, but as fall gets cooler, buyers will see higher utility prices due to increasing natural gas prices.

Are the people buying $40k watches the type of people who worry about their gas bill going up 15-20%?

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Are the people buying $40k watches the type of people who worry about their gas bill going up 15-20%?

those flippers do.

[WILLIWALKER]

Never imo.
These crazy times have passed.
What is likely to happen is more of a downfall than anything else... Christmas or not.

[IR201]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

The answer is: Absolutely not!

Potential slight increases may be seen by beginning of December with greys for the holidays but people should be able to obtain unworn well under 40k.

Greys are holding inventory at high prices, asking well above market in many cases. But, if you are trying to flip/sell, these greys will offer you thousands, sometimes 40 precent below their asking prices, trying to offset some of their other losses, screwing desperate speculators/flippers.

Still, the market has stabilized this last 30 to 45 days, and I do see a slight increase in the next year or two for this reference.

When well it hit 50k again? Let's see what happens in 2024 when it gets discontinued on the anniversary. Jk



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Also screwing people that just want to trade watches, which is a real bummer


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[LUDA]

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

Panda is a $5k watch at best. But the market is the market.

I'd love to see a watch with the same finish and the same quality movement for 5K.

I'll buy 5 in different colours, where is it?

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Are the people buying $40k watches the type of people who worry about their gas bill going up 15-20%?

Perhaps it wasn't obvious, but my entire post was facetious. Some of these prognostications about future watch prices by the month are like Wall Street talking heads declaring that "the market opened and stocks fell as traders focused on the anticipation of higher interest rates, but rallied in the afternoon as the focus moved to stronger earnings from airlines."

[padi56]

Originally Posted by sojourner

It looks like 116500LN prices have finally bottomed out after the recent sharp declines.

Does anyone think they will get back to pushing $50K with the Holidays coming?

Well today Rolex watches are just £$€ object things and nothing more to some, once they were watches bought to wear and enjoy, but those days seem to be gone now as to some its all about £$€.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by IR201

Also screwing people that just want to trade watches, which is a real bummer


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You should open a watch store and pay high prices, and sell at low prices.

[mobster600]

So your predicting the inflation to reverse course. FED's response to do nothing to the economy. Supply chain to get worse then its ever been.

Ceramic Daytonas are dropping thousands a week BTW. There around 26-28k right now

Anything else to make a down trend to reverse course, then rise 100%?

[DoctorsOrders]

I think just the opposite, they will continue to fall

[IR201]

Originally Posted by zengineer

You should open a watch store and pay high prices, and sell at low prices.

No one suggested that. Selling at 20 percent markup of buy price, even 30 percent, seems fair to me. However, beyond that, it makes it personally unappealing for me to trade in. This suggests that I need to find an alternate route for trading/selling, which marks the end of an era for me because I have enjoyed working with the known grey dealers. I imagine others may be in a similar position. Like I said, it is a bummer. I didn't say I didn't understand the business aspects of it.

[dlrolex]

How much does it cost Rolex to produce a SS Daytona?

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dlrolex

How much does it cost Rolex to produce a SS Daytona?

No one knows, but you have to consider the ads, sponsers/ambassadors, infrastructure, research and investing.

I speculate that the actual watch may cost about 500 bucks. And they sell it to the jewelers within their network for about 9k USD.

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[zengineer]

Originally Posted by dlrolex

How much does it cost Rolex to produce a SS Daytona?

Not much, just like almost everything we buy. But honestly, how would knowing help? The AD pays about 2/3 retail and cal sell any they can get there hands on.
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[inadeje]

I think that the whole watch market, not just Rolex, has and will continue to cool down in line with other market forces. Austerity in Europe this winter (energy crisis), a global housing market slowdown and the stock market will all impact luxury goods.

[mk2jag]

in 5 years we'll all be thinking how cheap the prices used te be.....

[Robf52]

I think prices have bottomed, and we'll see an uptick as we approach the holidays.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

Panda is a $5k watch at best. But the market is the market.

what

[jb335]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Ceramic Daytonas are dropping thousands a week BTW. There around 26-28k right now

Uh, no they’re not that low.

One random example from Moda that is naked and likely stolen and by an unknown dealer is not the market price


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[mattytreks]

Originally Posted by sojourner

It looks like 116500LN prices have finally bottomed out after the recent sharp declines.

Does anyone think they will get back to pushing $50K with the Holidays coming?

I'm curious what the motiviation is behind the question.

Are you sitting on one (or more) and attmpting to figure out the best time to flip (err, sell)?

[jb335]

Originally Posted by mobster600

So your predicting the inflation to reverse course. FED's response to do nothing to the economy. Supply chain to get worse then its ever been.

Ceramic Daytonas are dropping thousands a week BTW. There around 26-28k right now

Anything else to make a down trend to reverse course, then rise 100%?

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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by mk2jag

in 5 years we'll all be thinking how cheap the prices used te be.....

Or how crazy expensive they were. Economic headwinds and reversion to the mean support more of a downside than upside.