I don’t get it. Gray market prices increasing?

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by garyk

It’s another time where people try to look at events logically and at some point all common sense and logic are out the window. Buy on the market.

Amen

This is definitely where we are at.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by garyk

I agree, we were traveling like crazy until this hit and between being stuck at home, avoiding eating inside restaurants (Petrie dishes we call them), we definitely have saved a bunch. A clothing store I bought some nice clothes from the past couple of years keeps sending me emails about this and that coming in. Haven’t worn much more than shorts and t shirts for months so no use for new clothes either.

Wow I sure hope you are in the minority. If not the economy is going to crash worse than any of us have ever dreamed. I doubt they’ll be much if any restaurants that survive this or clothing stores.

I’ve done everything in my power to help small business and big business especially restaurants.

Prices on luxury items haven’t crashed because the fundamentals of the economy are still strong. That may or may not change next year. If the fundamentals do change then capital will be pulled out of the economy and all those people that found themselves at Rolex affording income levels will recede back to 2015 levels. When that happens gentlemen the prices of Rolex watches will go back to 2015 prices as be more available. I wouldn’t wish for that though fellas because if that happens I would guess that many of you won’t be interested in those hard to get pieces anymore because more pressing issues will be on your minds.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Wow I sure hope you are in the minority. If not the economy is going to crash worse than any of us have ever dreamed. I doubt they’ll be much if any restaurants that survive this or clothing stores.

I’ve done everything in my power to help small business and big business especially restaurants.

Prices on luxury items haven’t crashed because the fundamentals of the economy are still strong. That may or may not change next year. If the fundamentals do change then capital will be pulled out of the economy and all those people that found themselves at Rolex affording income levels will recede back to 2015 levels. When that happens gentlemen the prices of Rolex watches will go back to 2015 prices as be more available. I wouldn’t wish for that though fellas because if that happens I would guess that many of you won’t be interested in those hard to get pieces anymore because more pressing issues will be on your minds.

Which fundamentals specifically would you say are still strong?

Thursday’s GDP numbers:

“The U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing tens of millions out of work and sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the government said Thursday.

The Commerce Department’s estimate of the second-quarter decline in the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, marked the sharpest such drop on records dating to 1947. The previous worst quarterly contraction, a 10% drop, occurred in 1958 during the Eisenhower administration.”

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Which fundamentals specifically would you say are still strong?

Thursday’s GDP numbers:

“The U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing tens of millions out of work and sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the government said Thursday.

The Commerce Department’s estimate of the second-quarter decline in the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, marked the sharpest such drop on records dating to 1947. The previous worst quarterly contraction, a 10% drop, occurred in 1958 during the Eisenhower administration.”

That’s because they forced the economy to shut down. Just because you’re close a valve on a hose doesn’t mean there’s no water pressure behind the valve. I love your quotes. Most of the people that use those figures you just posted are the same people that were the strongest to advocat the shut down of the economy. So they advocate shutting down the economy and then they go look what happened.

[BillA]

Since I posted this thread a few days ago I have noticed the following:

A gray dealer sells a watch, the same model appears the next day, and the gray now adding a few hundred dollars to the asking price vs. the last one sold.

Just crazy. Guys, don’t fall for the hype. Don’t be gouged. There is one watch I want, will not pay a premium. Either one of 2 things will happen: 1. I will never get the watch. 2. I will have to wait a long time for it. I am prepared to wait. I work too hard for my money to pay 100% over msrp for a mass produced item. That is me. Everyone has the right to spend their money as they wish.

[Yess]

Sold my 2020 OP39 for a healthy profit.
Loads of March/April threads discussed the end of Rolex grey prices, many, like myself, maintained that Rolex would manage stock so supply and demand remained as constrained as in the past. I believe that's what is occurring.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That’s because they forced the economy to shut down. Just because you’re close a valve on a hose doesn’t mean there’s no water pressure behind the valve. I love your quotes. Most of the people that use those figures you just posted are the same people that were the strongest to advocat the shut down of the economy. So they advocate shutting down the economy and then they go look what happened.

I’m not trying to be facetious.

I am just not sure if your conclusion that “fundamentals of the economy are still strong” statement is based on facts that you have looked into? Or is just your gut feel?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BillA

Since I posted this thread a few days ago I have noticed the following:

A gray dealer sells a watch, the same model appears the next day, and the gray now adding a few hundred dollars to the asking price vs. the last one sold.

Just crazy. Guys, don’t fall for the hype. Don’t be gouged. There is one watch I want, will not pay a premium. Either one of 2 things will happen: 1. I will never get the watch. 2. I will have to wait a long time for it. I am prepared to wait. I work too hard for my money to pay 100% over msrp for a mass produced item. That is me. Everyone has the right to spend their money as they wish.

I don’t blame you one bit for not wanting to pay over retail. Just wait it out brother. You’ll get it at retail sooner or later.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Which fundamentals specifically would you say are still strong?

Excellent question since P/E ratios are crazy high, government intervention financially is beyond all-time highs, central bank currency manipulation is at all-time highs. The US Gov giveaways and 'entitlements' are now essentially 25% of the US economy today.

Maybe he means currency values have never been lower? Due to low value of USD, Euro, etc... Cash is trash, and virtually ALWAYS going down in buying power.

Fundamentals are screaming bankruptcy for many companies. Countries are less reliable at ever paying back their national debt if the buying power / value remains the same as it is today. Of course Zimbabwe can pay off trillions in debt easily, since their (previous) currency is essentially now worthless. Once the USD follows suit, then paying back USA national debt is easy with cheap / worthless currency.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

I’m not trying to be facetious.

I am just not sure if your conclusion that “fundamentals of the economy are still strong” statement is based on facts that you have looked into? Or is just your gut feel?

Nope. Let me put it this way. The Kansas City Chiefs are undoubtably the strongest football team in the NFL. (I take zero pleasure in stating that. LOL) I can say the fundamental strength of the Kansas City Chiefs is strong. Now let’s say they lose their magnificent highest paid star quarterback for three weeks due to injury as well as two receivers. Just bad luck in one game. Does that mean the fundamental strength of the Kansas City Chiefs is permanently gone? Of course not. It’s just been shut off for a time period. Now if they traded those people you then could say the strength of their team is gone. I hope you understand this analogy. Until major policy is changed and that could very well happen next year the fundamentals of the economy will stay strong. Once the tap is open fully again there’s no doubt we will return to January numbers. Once we return to January numbers unfortunately the prices of Rolex will continue to rise. It will also stay very difficult to get the highly sought after pieces.

[LuckyHubbyW/aDJ]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Nope. Let me put it this way. The Kansas City Chiefs are undoubtably the strongest football team in the NFL. (I take zero pleasure in stating that. LOL) I can say the fundamental strength of the Kansas City Chiefs is strong. Now let’s say they lose their magnificent highest paid star quarterback for three weeks due to injury as well as two receivers. Just bad luck in one game. Does that mean the fundamental strength of the Kansas City Chiefs is permanently gone? Of course not. It’s just been shut off for a time period. Now if they traded those people you then could say the strength of their team is gone. I hope you understand this analogy. Until major policy is changed and that could very well happen next year the fundamentals of the economy will stay strong. Once the tap is open fully again there’s no doubt we will return to January numbers. Once we return to January numbers unfortunately the prices of Rolex will continue to rise. It will also stay very difficult to get the highly sought after pieces.

Your analogy of the U.S. economy and losing the said KC quarterback for 3 weeks is the best analogy of our economy I've read thus far.

I have no doubt the U.S will bounce back from these challenges ....... it's just a question of when??!!

[GB-man]

If you’re trying to make sense of any of this please stop immediately. The watch markets is a joke and is not efficient.

[THC]

Got my DD40 for 29,8 last December and they are now close to 34k at same seller in only 7 months. Full disclosure, mine was one month old, per warranty card when I bought it, but still... wow..

In fairness, retail, these are now 36k, so still a good deal

[YGRLX]

I think the usd devaluing is on the euro, chf etc is a big factor

[slus]

It's not just watches, it's everything. Anyone shopped for workout gear, bikes, or anything to do with camping or hiking lately? Gone, even the high $$$ stuff. Quarantine has too many people at home with surplus time to spend online shopping and seemingly still raking in paychecks, or else going in to massive debt, and they are looking for an outlet.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by ROLEXster

My guess is whoever bought stocks at the lowest (Mid March time frame) made a lot of money. I bought some Airlines and Cruise ship stocks, cashed out last month and ready to spend.

Good for you!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by slus

It's not just watches, it's everything. Anyone shopped for workout gear, bikes, or anything to do with camping or hiking lately? Gone, even the high $$$ stuff. Quarantine has too many people at home with surplus time to spend online shopping and seemingly still raking in paychecks, or else going in to massive debt, and they are looking for an outlet.

I put a deposit down on a Trek bike. Hopefully I’ll have it in December. All the bike shops around me are sold out. I close to 8 ADs and very close to 3. Absolutely every new Sub, DJ, OP, Explorer, Sky D, Sea D and most popular PMs they get never make it into the case.

[NachoNeal]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I put a deposit down on a Trek bike. Hopefully I’ll have it in December. All the bike shops around me are sold out. I close to 8 ADs and very close to 3. Absolutely every new Sub, DJ, OP, Explorer, Sky D, Sea D and most popular PMs they get never make it into the case.

[Calatrava r]

I think it is simply no money has gone into, travel, entertainment, business attire and meals out so the money is backing up and needs to be spent somewhere. And, for some reason, people are not selling right now, but holding on, so used produce is scarce. Low supply and big money demand means higher prices for the sought after models and then some.

[DoctorA]

1- rolex shut down production for a couple of months
2- people who can afford luxury items didn’t get as affected (if any) with economy slowing down
3- some made some healthy profits in the stock market, making more available cash
4- some folks got tired of waiting and want to put that watch on their wrists
5- demand maintained and supply got less due to (1)

Put all if the above in an equation and you’ll see why prices didn’t go down, to the contrary, it went up!
Not that I like it but, right or wrong, that’s my Analysis to why it’s happening!

[Sandpit]

Ok, my two cents for what it’s worth. I think the wealth divide has grown ever larger. Those that can work from home have been doing and have been spending less and saving more. General expenses will be way down and savings will be well up.

The Guardian released an article at the end of May which stated that savers in the big European countries (including the UK) had put away 4 or 5 times per month. Example: “ French savers put aside nearly €20bn (£16.2bn) in March, compared with the monthly average before coronavirus of €3.8bn. The Italians were much the same, adding €16.8bn to savings accounts, or five times the monthly average of €3.4bn. In the UK, the Bank of England says bank deposits soared by £13.1bn in March, a record monthly rise.”

So a combination of a crazy (pumped) stock market, people with more money, more time on their hands and just looking for something different to spend money on.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

1- rolex shut down production for a couple of months
2- people who can afford luxury items didn’t get as affected (if any) with economy slowing down
3- some made some healthy profits in the stock market, making more available cash
4- some folks got tired of waiting and want to put that watch on their wrists
5- demand maintained and supply got less due to (1)

Put all if the above in an equation and you’ll see why prices didn’t go down, to the contrary, it went up!
Not that I like it but, right or wrong, that’s my Analysis to why it’s happening!

If we don't see an economic tsunami by the Spring of 2021 I will go gray and buy that damn BLRO no matter what the price! That could only means these watches will never get back to prices they were 5 years ago and the prices will keep rising! The quality is there long after the price is forgotten anyway!

[Rolexatlast]

Would be interested to know if Greys are offering record prices if you try to sell watches to them.

If so, then maybe the value of Rolex watches is going up.

If not, then maybe it is all hype and marketing

Originally Posted by helloworldies

Grey dealers raise their prices for certain models. This gets noticed in watch forums.
Watch is "in demand"
FOMO kicks in, watches sell and prices increase again.
Just try selling the same model watch to them!

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

Ok, my two cents for what it’s worth. I think the wealth divide has grown ever larger. Those that can work from home have been doing and have been spending less and saving more. General expenses will be way down and savings will be well up.

The Guardian released an article at the end of May which stated that savers in the big European countries (including the UK) had put away 4 or 5 times per month. Example: “ French savers put aside nearly €20bn (£16.2bn) in March, compared with the monthly average before coronavirus of €3.8bn. The Italians were much the same, adding €16.8bn to savings accounts, or five times the monthly average of €3.4bn. In the UK, the Bank of England says bank deposits soared by £13.1bn in March, a record monthly rise.”

So a combination of a crazy (pumped) stock market, people with more money, more time on their hands and just looking for something different to spend money on.

The question is whether the pain being suffered by some in the workforce (which will only get worse once government support is withdrawn) will cross over to the smug savers through indirect drop in demand.

Also whether the governments will repeat their response to the banking crisis - of austerity for the poorer members of society whilst pumping QE into the financial sector to boost asset prices

[Harry-57]

There is a jeweller in my nearest town who sells a lot of mid range stuff, straps, changes batteries, etc, and also dabbles in used watches from brands like Rolex, Omega, Breitling, Tag Heuer. There are usually about 4 to 6 nice second hand watches in the window, including, typically. 2 or 3 Rolex.

They charge about the going rate. I walked past on Friday for the first time in 3 months. Their window was stuffed with Rolex watches, no hot models, plus a few from the other usual suspects. I have no idea what kind of offers they would take, but the prices stickered were at gouge level.

Anecdotally, my conclusion is that current times have caused owners to cash in their trophies and/or heirlooms and this influx does not seem to have weakened the (asking) prices for second hand Rolex watches, including the not so hot models.

If we get another lock down and dip deeper into recession, I don't see how these prices can stay high. Which does not mean to say that they won't! One person's crash is another persons fire sale.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If you’re trying to make sense of any of this please stop immediately. The watch markets is a joke and is not efficient.

100% correct my friend.

All smoke in mirrors. Period. Hyping the hype.


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[SlideRacker]

Amazing how just a few months ago many were predicting Roleggedon, wishing for it in fact so they could buy a SS model on the cheap. That was the time to buy. The brief window of opportunity is now gone. Hopefully a few enterprising TRFers got some while the gettin’ was good.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by SlideRacker

Amazing how just a few months ago many were predicting Roleggedon, wishing for it in fact so they could buy a SS model on the cheap. That was the time to buy. The brief window of opportunity is now gone. Hopefully a few enterprising TRFers got some while the gettin’ was good.

Does your crystal ball show the Chiefs winning the super bowl again?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SlideRacker

Amazing how just a few months ago many were predicting Roleggedon, wishing for it in fact so they could buy a SS model on the cheap. That was the time to buy. The brief window of opportunity is now gone. Hopefully a few enterprising TRFers got some while the gettin’ was good.

And remember how pissed off they got if you insisted in those threads that prices would stay high? Some of those guys got downright nasty if you didn’t agree with them that the whole economy was going to crash beyond recognition and therefore Rolexes would go for below MSRP including hot models.

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Does your crystal ball show the Chiefs winning the super bowl again?

Oh I hope not. LOL. The last Super Bowl was painful. The only good thing out of it in my opinion was at least we now know we’re going to have an awesome quarterback to watch for the next 15 years or so. Someone to replace Brady and Manning. We need a few more those guys.

[donas]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Would be interested to know if Greys are offering record prices if you try to sell watches to them.

If so, then maybe the value of Rolex watches is going up.

If not, then maybe it is all hype and marketing

Not in my recent experience. I tried trading or selling (their option) a JC DSSD to quite a few trusted names on TRF and they all offered around the same amount as I was offered close to a year ago when I looked at letting it go originally. A year ago the offered price was so they could mark it up $500-1000, now it was so they could mark it up $2500-3000. They don't conceal that fact, most outright told me I'm offering you X so I can list it at Y.

I fully understand their position, buy low, sell high. I don't have a hate that many have for the gray market and dealers as it's completely my choice to deal with them or not. I have been buying from them for almost 20 years and have definitely noticed they aren't near the bargain they used to be. Grays used to be a place for good prices, now they are a place for availability at a premium.