the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by statsman

Thanks. I am trying to avoid being political, but want the most efficacious policy.

This is interesting to me. The state of NY has a population of 19.5 million. Today it has over 15,000 cases. The city of NY has a population of 8.5 million and 9,000 cases.

The rest of the US has a population of 310 million and 20,000 cases.

The best policy approach for NY may not be the same as the best for the rest of the US. Or it might be. I think it is worth asking the question.

I would say NY's approach is an example for others of what NOT to do. Despite having ample time to prepare and take heed of what's been happening elsewhere for 2 months, with resources up the wazoo to act on it and plenty of number-crunching geniuses and talking heads to get the word out, it's an utter failure.

On March 17 there were less than 500 cases and 7 deaths in NYC

5 days later..

On March 22 there are now 10,764 cases and 99 deaths NYC 36 deaths in one day.

By any measure, NOT an example to follow.

[joeychitwood]

My daughter is feeling slightly better today with less shortness of breath on exertion. Though miserable, she is happy to be improving from whatever she has.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

My daughter is feeling slightly better today with less shortness of breath on exertion. Though miserable, she is happy to be improving from whatever she has.

This is great news!

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

My daughter is feeling slightly better today with less shortness of breath on exertion. Though miserable, she is happy to be improving from whatever she has.

That is good news and surely a huge relief to everyone in your family.

[joeychitwood]

And so far, no one else in her household has developed new symptoms since having Influenza B a couple of weeks ago.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

My daughter is feeling slightly better today with less shortness of breath on exertion. Though miserable, she is happy to be improving from whatever she has.

Wonderful news.

[1675-David]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

My daughter is feeling slightly better today with less shortness of breath on exertion. Though miserable, she is happy to be improving from whatever she has.

good to hear

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

And so far, no one else in her household has developed new symptoms since having Influenza B a couple of weeks ago.

amazing all around!!!!

[chappuy1750]

Interesting possible symptom - anosmia?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/h...ell-taste.html

[SMD]

Originally Posted by statsman

Thanks. I am trying to avoid being political, but want the most efficacious policy.

This is interesting to me. The state of NY has a population of 19.5 million. Today it has over 15,000 cases. The city of NY has a population of 8.5 million and 9,000 cases.

The rest of the US has a population of 310 million and 20,000 cases.

The best policy approach for NY may not be the same as the best for the rest of the US. Or it might be. I think it is worth asking the question.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

And so far, no one else in her household has developed new symptoms since having Influenza B a couple of weeks ago.

Glad to read this, Joey.


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[statsman]

Originally Posted by SMD

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

NYC hospitals are already taxed by the number of respiratory patients, per Saturday’s WSJ. Flyover country hospitals are not. I think that’s evidence of absence. For now. Maybe the US heartland is two weeks away from an infection rate like NYC. Only increased testing will tell.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by CRM114

I would say NY's approach is an example for others of what NOT to do. Despite having ample time to prepare and take heed of what's been happening elsewhere for 2 months, with resources up the wazoo to act on it and plenty of number-crunching geniuses and talking heads to get the word out, it's an utter failure.

On March 17 there were less than 500 cases and 7 deaths in NYC

5 days later..

On March 22 there are now 10,764 cases and 99 deaths NYC 36 deaths in one day.

By any measure, NOT an example to follow.

Those numbers don't prove what you think they prove. Are you saying that in 5 days you think there were 10,200 new infections?

Perhaps maybe, and I am just spit balling here, that they might demonstrate that the numbers of March 17 were completely inaccurate because NY wasn't conducting many tests? And that these infections existed even on March 17 but we just didn't know it??

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SMD

Those numbers don't prove what you think they prove. Are you saying that in 5 days you think there were 10,200 new infections?

Perhaps maybe, and I am just spit balling here, that they might demonstrate that the numbers of March 17 were completely inaccurate because NY wasn't conducting many tests? And that these infections existed even on March 17 but we just didn't know it??

I think a lot of people are missing this point.

Apparently they are testing massive amounts in comparison to having tests only for those show the worst symptoms.

This alone will likely skew the numbers to a point where it is just not yet possible to tell much of anything.

[statsman]

SMD, that’s what I think. Lack of testing kept us from knowing the problem- that NYC had an outbreak as bad as any. Due to ignorance, people were going to NYC for spring break!

Now, we have enough testing to gauge the problem. Solving it will require even more testing.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by SMD

Those numbers don't prove what you think they prove. Are you saying that in 5 days you think there were 10,200 new infections?

Perhaps maybe, and I am just spit balling here, that they might demonstrate that the numbers of March 17 were completely inaccurate because NY wasn't conducting many tests? And that these infections existed even on March 17 but we just didn't know it??

You hit the nail right on the head, we just greatly accelerated the amount of testing over the last week. They even built an entire drive through testing center in Staten Island. We have a large number of undetected infections that are just coming to light

[RNHC]

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The current US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.3%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.13% to 0.26%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by statsman

NYC hospitals are already taxed by the number of respiratory patients, per Saturday’s WSJ. Flyover country hospitals are not. I think that’s evidence of absence. For now. Maybe the US heartland is two weeks away from an infection rate like NYC. Only increased testing will tell.

You were comparing the total population to the number of infections outside of NY. That is a completely bogus comparison and demonstrates absolutely nothing. NY has conducted more than 1/4 of all tests in the USA, but only represents 6% of the population. Quite frankly if you limit to NYC, Suffolk, Nassau and Westchester (where most of the cases are) you have 1/4 of the nationwide tests conducted yet only representing 3% of the total population. You cannot find what you are not looking for.

[RNHC]

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease. Per Wikipedia:

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 1.4 to 3.9.

Seasonal flu has estimated R0 of 0.9 to 2.1.

[77T]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Interesting possible symptom - anosmia?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/h...ell-taste.html

Interesting anecdotal clue...

Intranasal zinc products, decongestant nose sprays, the common cold and sinusitis also cause anosmia. I’ve used the “ColdEEZE” product before and noticed a reduced sense of taste and smell.

I think under the current circumstances the suggestion to isolate from an onset is a good bit of advise - even if some feel it is overly cautious.


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[RNHC]

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 459 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[MichaelFlash]

More tests equals more confirmed cases. For all the negative hype, my law firm is in NYC as well as my paralegals. I can tell you from first hand experience that from what I see, people have been pretty responsible and working from home. The courts closed about 2 weeks ago, I feel that they should have closed a week earlier, but even before then rules were in place to limit the reasons why you had to appear in Court. What does shock me is that many physical therapy clinics and Drs offices (orthos, neuros, etc) remained open until last week. I can also tell you from speaking to my staff who all live in NY, they have a good attitude, have not fallen into the doom and gloom trap and are diligently doing whatever work they can do for me from home. Kudos to them!

[statsman]

Originally Posted by SMD

You were comparing the total population to the number of infections outside of NY. That is a completely bogus comparison and demonstrates absolutely nothing. NY has conducted more than 1/4 of all tests in the USA, but only represents 6% of the population. Quite frankly if you limit to NYC, Suffolk, Nassau and Westchester (where most of the cases are) you have 1/4 of the nationwide tests conducted yet only representing 3% of the total population. You cannot find what you are not looking for.

I made an assumption- that most of the testing is happening where most of the cases are. That is based on a uniform testing criteria (contacts with positives, travel, symptoms) resulting in a concentration in testing. I agree with our leaders that we do not need a peanut butter-even spread of testing across the US.

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by RNHC

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 459 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes. And in 2017 80,000 Americans died of the flu and 900,000 were hospitalized according to the CDC. I throw that out there not to minmize the current situation but just to keep some perspective as to what is happening at this moment.

[statsman]

Sure. And to reiterate- the reaction to Covid-19 is not just due to the deaths, but to the strain on medical resources for all the severe to critical respiratory cases.

Once you reach outbreak numbers like Italy, the death rate goes up due to inability to treat all.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

Yes. And in 2017 80,000 Americans died of the flu and 900,000 were hospitalized according to the CDC. I throw that out there not to minmize the current situation but just to keep some perspective as to what is happening at this moment.

That’s probably not true.

https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com...t-the-vaccine/

[77T]

In my opinion, the initial delay in testing kits, and now the reduction of PPE supplies as a limiting factor, will cause fits and spurts of questionable data. (note that the sampling even in drive-thru sites uses up masks, gloves and disposable gowns)

This is a precarious position among our quants here and in the world at-large.

Perhaps a better stat might be the number of people seriously ill with COVID-19.

A seriously ill person doesn’t introduce testing error, or bias generated from sampling errors.

A seriously ill person with COVID-19 is a quantitative, objective fact.

Whenever we want to see an improvement in anything, there is an old saying, “If you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it”.

While we can debate coronavirus positive reports here or abroad, it is less reliable data.

But we can measure seriously ill people accurately.
And isn’t that what we want to improve?

Whether by prevention, or new combined therapies, or long-term vaccine use, I’d like to see more empty beds in hospitals, clinics, ER/ED rooms - and the resulting reduction in fatalities.

Just my 2¢...and for the debatable points, please avoid personalizing or condescending comments. Debate the facts not the person.

[RNHC]

I agree that our medical system being overwhelmed is the primary and legitimate concern. However, I cannot but note how the mass media initiated the coronavirus coverage as a new exotic killer disease with catchy name from China. When more data became available and indicated that coronavirus was not as lethal nor was super-contagious as it was made out to be in the beginning, the mass media never really did convey those facts but continued to dramatically drum up fear.

And our feckless political leaders went into CYA mode and decided to impose extreme responses instead of rational measures based on scientific facts. So here we are on the brink of self-inflicted economic fiasco which may have far more devastating effects on far more many people then coronavirus itself alone did or ever would.

[statsman]

On a scale of 1 to 10, where “1” is “we have no clue as to why people are getting sick and dying, and we can only conclude that we have angered the gods and must appease them” and “10” is “oh, you’re sick? Let me swab your cheek. Looks like you have the flu. Stay at home, take some tamifly and call me if it gets worse”, we were at “1” on December 5, 2019. We are now at “6” and trying desperately to race to “9” before it’s too late.

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s probably not true.

https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com...t-the-vaccine/

According to CNN it is true. But it may be fake news I guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html