I'm sorry, OK?!?!?

[ny_yeti]

Alright gang, here is the deal... I am NOT a fan of the "is this an investment" threads... To each their own and many folks like them, totally cool.

So, anyway, I have a very good relationship with my AD. I was not the first on the list for the for the SD 43 but was the first to get it (don't tell anyone). I am on the list for the Tudor GMT (never owned a Tudor) and the new Rolex Pepsi GMT. Super curious what the community thinks. Will this Rolex Pepsi take off like the ceramic Daytona? Will the Tudor be a huge hit? Honestly, I am really liking BOTH and think they could be great in the rotation.

Again, more curious than anything. Also, the wife and I need a new kitchen so if there is money to be made, maybe this is a good time to be a flipper?

Yeti

[jrs146]

I’m sure it’s safe to say the PepsiC will trade at Daytona like premiums. As for the Tudor I’m really not sure.


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[Nikrnic]

I'm sure the Tudor will be hot but the Rolex will be White Hot.

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[SLS]

Pretty much any new Rolex sport model will command a premium these days until demand diminishes. If you do not have a relationship with an AD and you "need" to have it first, then you will pay. Just watch the initial prices and see how they drop once the flippers enter there lightly worn watches into the market.

[AK797]

I hope Rolex really turn the screws for ADs who don't ensure their watches go to true buyers. It is looking like Rolex are going to have to cut supply in half to make sure the grey market is not fed like a fat kid with cake. People just can't resist. I think withholding the warranty will become the norm once greys start selling the GMTc for a 100% mark up.

[zjd168]

I know the answer but I won't tell you:-)

[Fabrice M]

I hear that in Europe there are already insane waiting list for the Tudor gmt with 1 to 2 years waiting time. Of course in America we get more supply since we are the largest market for Rolex, so it may not apply, but I think this may be a big seller for Tudor.

[NYCWATCHCREW]

I had discussed speculation of the Pepsi SS with one of the big trusted sellers on the forum estimates are between 12K-15K out of the gate. I have heard more aggressive estimates, but this is where he thinks they will land.

All the best.

[c41006]

I guess it really depends on how quickly Rolex decides to produce and release them

[drmizzou]

Marty got but I don’t think Daytona like prices. Can’t see the SS gmt going for 20k like the Daytona as it’s worth $3k more than the gmt. But $15-17k, maybe. Tudor may initially command a premium but within a year will very very likely be easily found for msrp and maybe a bit of a discount or at a savings as lightly used.

[drmizzou]

*Maybe

[Watch Admirer]

Maybe

[woof]

I think the new Pepsi would be a disappointment.

[armen34]

Originally Posted by woof

I think the new Pepsi would be a disappointment.

Disagree with you 100%

[Rocket_Man]

- I think Rolex will make more Pepsi GMTs then they make DaytonaCs. More supply
- They will still make the LN and the BLNR and frankly some, many, will like those better, or for thousands less will be happy to have one. Less demand.
- The Jubilee on a Sports model is not everyone's cup of tea. And the fact that Rolex has somehow designed the case or the bracelet to make fitting an Oyster bracelet impossible means that can never be 'fixed.' Less demand.
- The bezel is nice enough for me, but some don't see the colors they like. Less demand.
- There will always be the "Bachelor Effect" happening. An illogical attraction to something caused by a reaction to others desire for the same thing. They want it because others want it, even if they aren't really attracted to it. They still feel a desire for it. This is hard to predict but I'm sure it will drive up the price.

So I think there will be a large demand as to be expected for a new sport model. But I don't see it getting crazy like the DaytonaCs.

[OmegaJJH]

TBH I'm disillusioned and slightly saddened by the current Rolex strategy.

They could completely eradicate grey market premiums and waiting lists at the same time by supplying everyone who wants one. I mean, just imagine a company like Rolex releasing an exciting new product where you can turn up at one of their retail stores and actually buy the watch???

I know this will never happen though

Going in to an AD isn't a very enjoyable experience at the moment, especially in the UK.

[jackcarls0n]

Originally Posted by OmegaJJH

TBH I'm disillusioned and slightly saddened by the current Rolex strategy.

They could completely eradicate grey market premiums and waiting lists at the same time by supplying everyone who wants one. I mean, just imagine a company like Rolex releasing an exciting new product where you can turn up at one of their retail stores and actually buy the watch???

I know this will never happen though

Going in to an AD isn't a very enjoyable experience at the moment, especially in the UK.

It isn't an enjoyable moment anywhere.

[jackcarls0n]

If SS BLRO is being produced and as available as the BLNR, I don't see a reason to pay a very high premium for it.

The people who can pay top dollars are generally VIP customers at ADs. They will get it at retail price.

Paying 10-15% premium is reasonable but 100% premium that is stupidity. But oh well that is the nature of the market.

[1William]

If you could get the SS GMT Pepsi from your AD at msrp you would be doing well. I would assume that on a flip to a TS you could make 1-2.5k. That would leave them with a good margin to throw another 2-3K onto the watch. That would be if it was unworn and had the stickers still on it. I don't know if it is worth the trouble. The AD could catch some grief for you flipping the watch which could result in you not being able to buy again. The Tudor will be readily available and will be discounted as soon as the newness wears off in a few months. The Tudor is on my list and the price and look are right.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ny_yeti

Will this Rolex Pepsi take off like the ceramic Daytona? Will the Tudor be a huge hit? Honestly, I am really liking BOTH and think they could be great in the rotation.

Also, the wife and I need a new kitchen so if there is money to be made, maybe this is a good time to be a flipper?

So are you looking to buy and wear or flip?

If you flip, after you have waited to get them, how much money do you expect to make after buying them and then reselling them? Are you really going to get that much towards a new kitchen for your time and effort?

Best of luck

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by woof

I think the new Pepsi would be a disappointment.

Nice try to increase your chances in getting one by getting others to pass on it!


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by AK797

I hope Rolex really turn the screws for ADs who don't ensure their watches go to true buyers. It is looking like Rolex are going to have to cut supply in half to make sure the grey market is not fed like a fat kid with cake. People just can't resist. I think withholding the warranty will become the norm once greys start selling the GMTc for a 100% mark up.

I hope so too, and I think the tide is beginning to shift slowly Neil. I know my AD definately caters to buyers who want to wear and are watch enthusiasts

[~JJ]

Curious, is your plan to purchase a $9,250 + tax watch, then try to sell it for a few extra k for a kitchen remodel?

[cpefy3]

Does anyone see Rolex cutting production ever to Patek-like numbers? I heard their wait lists make Rolex's seem short (at least for Nautilus models).

[AK797]

Originally Posted by c41006

I guess it really depends on how quickly Rolex decides to produce and release them

I think very safe to say Rolex will release this very carefully to make sure their ADs get this into the hands of true buyers. Truth is your TRF post count and contributions actually could have a huge part to play in deciding your veracity as a serious buyer, so it is actually a resource Rolex and ADs should use. God knows ADs have enough spare time during the day now to do a little homework.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I hope so too, and I think the tide is beginning to shift slowly Neil. I know my AD definately caters to buyers who want to wear and are watch enthusiasts

Yes, I think the initial outrage over warranty withheld and background checks are dissipating as the shortage to real buyers and the flips to greys gets worse and worse. When we hear the average wait list for the new PepC is 30 long, we know most of those are flippers now, and most of them probably have some history with the AD too so they will be hard to spot, or just greedy VIPs who can't resist getting a hard to find piece and then making some easy cash.

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by robcorbe1

I had discussed speculation of the Pepsi SS with one of the big trusted sellers on the forum estimates are between 12K-15K out of the gate. I have heard more aggressive estimates, but this is where he thinks they will land.

All the best.

All of this speculation sounds just like pre-trading chitchat about a hot IPO. Pretty sad for watches that we supposedly enjoy as a hobby. (not intended to single out this post. there are many just like this.)

[Rolex addict]

Originally Posted by AK797

I hope Rolex really turn the screws for ADs who don't ensure their watches go to true buyers. It is looking like Rolex are going to have to cut supply in half to make sure the grey market is not fed like a fat kid with cake. People just can't resist. I think withholding the warranty will become the norm once greys start selling the GMTc for a 100% mark up.

That could possibly help, but puts an added headache on the AD to keep the cards and make sure they are given to the owner after X amount of time. Plus, whenever the human factor is involved, there will be mistakes. Cards will be lost, etc. From a business perspective, I'm very curious to see how all of this plays out.

[Rolex addict]

Originally Posted by AK797

Yes, I think the initial outrage over warranty withheld and background checks are dissipating as the shortage to real buyers and the flips to greys gets worse and worse. When we hear the average wait list for the new PepC is 30 long, we know most of those are flippers now, and most of them probably have some history with the AD too so they will be hard to spot, or just greedy VIPs who can't resist getting a hard to find piece and then making some easy cash.

I agree. The market is absolutely crazy right now, but it's been like this with other models for years. For example, the AP 15305 and now 15407. The only way to get one is to be a VIP customer at an AP boutique. Those are fetching $20K+ over MSRP. The people buying aren't wearing them. Just flipping for profit. With Rolex, I'm seeing many new people dip their toes into the watch market because they can flip for a few hundred (some cases thousands) profit which is taking even more of these watches away from those who want one to wear.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Rolex addict

I agree. The market is absolutely crazy right now, but it's been like this with other models for years. For example, the AP 15305 and now 15407. The only way to get one is to be a VIP customer at an AP boutique. Those are fetching $20K+ over MSRP. The people buying aren't wearing them. Just flipping for profit. With Rolex, I'm seeing many new people dip their toes into the watch market because they can flip for a few hundred (some cases thousands) profit which is taking even more of these watches away from those who want one to wear.

Yes, stickers is too weak and engraving casebacks is too strong, so warranty withheld is about right to separate genuine from flippers. I think 6 months is fairer than 1 year, but I understand using the max deterrent. Sure they may be some logistical problems, but I think if the AD loses your card or whatever Rolex will quickly replace it as they are supervising and suggested this new policy so they will help ADs out here.