Any US ss BRLO deliveries lately?

[Speed]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

She wasn't being fully above-board; I was offerred a scarce piece last week at that AD IF I bundled with a low-demand piece.

Oh I’m sure stuff happens. I wasn’t interested in any new pieces anyway.

Curious...what was the piece, and what was the “old maid” you had to toss in?

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by jcdeng

first year release always go to vips and greys, for regular people like us we should expect to be able to buy them starting year 2. Where there will be new sought after ones from basal 2019 and vips loosing interest in the 18s.

I doubt there will be much in the sense of new in 2019. Rolex has really increased product offerings and this is tough to meet. They have to catch up.

[T01]

If we don't see many more by oct/nov then likely the wave of BLROs is over for the year, considering the massive shut down Rolex does annually. I believe my AD typically gets their last shipment for the year in one of the above mentioned months.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by T01

If we don't see many more by oct/nov then likely the wave of BLROs is over for the year, considering the massive shut down Rolex does annually. I believe my AD typically gets their last shipment for the year in one of the above mentioned months.

the shutdown is in the summer (right about now) for the swiss watch industry. I would think Rolex is the same.

[fiebru1119]

Does Rolex really shut down and go on holiday like that? Didn’t know:

My last AD said he sold almost 100 Rolex pieces over the few weeks December last year for tourists and the holidays. Sweating bullets about how he’s going to fare this year with nothing in the cases.

[lecorsaire]

I’m sorry but I think this is just a pathetic business model. It can only go on for so long before people lose interest. They should just move up the retail price at least to the middle of the current retail and market price if they will refuse to adequately supply these. It really isn’t so much about the money. If I am paying more than $10k for a new watch I want the papers in my name and the warranty. I don’t think that is a crazy demand.

It’s only a matter of time before the ADs complain themselves. Can you imagine what a PITA it is to have to turn down customers in person and on the phone on a daily basis? Yes, they have other less knowledgeable buyers that will be happy with a DJ or whatever they have in stock but those interested in sports models are their most passionate and loyal customers.

[lecorsaire]

I also think this lack of supply is creating a very dangerous bubble which can and will probably burst as soon as the market runs into problems. The bull market cannot last forever. While the tax cuts and low unemployment have boosted confidence, this administration has also been intervening too much with the economy IMO. Tariffs, trade wars is never good for business. And now they are being used to bully other nations into capitulating on political demands. Who knows what will happen.

I can only imagine the amount of people who will be trying to offload all this stuff they bought for ridiculous premiums especially if they were bought with credit. Recently there was a bubble in the GPU market due to mining and now that BTC fell to 6,000 ish, OEMS have been returning hundreds of thousands of GPUs back to manufacturers since there is no way they can sell them all now that mining is not as profitable.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by lecorsaire

I’m sorry but I think this is just a pathetic business model. It can only go on for so long before people lose interest. They should just move up the retail price at least to the middle of the current retail and market price if they will refuse to adequately supply these. It really isn’t so much about the money. If I am paying more than $10k for a new watch I want the papers in my name and the warranty. I don’t think that is a crazy demand.

It’s only a matter of time before the ADs complain themselves. Can you imagine what a PITA it is to have to turn down customers in person and on the phone on a daily basis? Yes, they have other less knowledgeable buyers that will be happy with a DJ or whatever they have in stock but those interested in sports models are their most passionate and loyal customers.

people are buying whenever they have the chance to buy and on impulse and without thought. I guarantee they sell more watches this way then flooding AD's with inventory and people "think about it" and discount shop playing AD's against each other. People want these watches more, not less since they cant have one. For every one losing interest there are many more who become interested.

It was not that long ago almost every SS watch could be had with a discount minus a couple. Now its full price on everything becoming the norm.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people are buying whenever they have the chance to buy and on impulse and without thought. I guarantee they sell more watches this way then flooding AD's with inventory and people "think about it" and discount shop playing AD's against each other. People want these watches more, not less since they cant have one. For every one losing interest there are many more who become interested.

you guarantee it?

[tbonesteak]

I estimate USA ADs have seen about 500-600 BLROs this year. I anticipate one more wave and the number to come in around 1k for the full year.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by superdog

you guarantee it?

sure. Hype sells watches. There are threads every day that say "i wanted this watch but was offered that. Its hard to get to so i bought it" People want blue sky dwellers and they buy black. They want a white daytona but buy a black when offered. They still would buy the one they really want if they get the chance too

Scarcity also created secondary premiums and people then think they are investments and buy away. Without a premium and the thought they are putting their money in an appreciating asset the 10K watch buyer pool gets smaller. Brands that dont sell over retail on the secondary market are tough sells right now, and they are not worse watches at all.

[tbonesteak]

Originally Posted by superdog

you guarantee it?

lol

Nonetheless, I agree with his sentiment - the brand is as hot as it has ever been. A company that produces over 1mm watches a year, yet somehow creates this aura of being exclusive and limited. The playbook is obviously working.

I also don't think it was instituted to punish grey dealers or ADs, but the end users who have always avoided ADs to save money. Now those users are without relationships after spending tons of money and have to pay premiums on limited watches.

[lecorsaire]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people are buying whenever they have the chance to buy and on impulse and without thought. I guarantee they sell more watches this way then flooding AD's with inventory and people "think about it" and discount shop playing AD's against each other. People want these watches more, not less since they cant have one. For every one losing interest there are many more who become interested.

It was not that long ago almost every SS watch could be had with a discount minus a couple. Now its full price on everything becoming the norm.

Even if so that still doesn’t make it a good practice. In the entire history of the brand, this was never the case and they did more than OK. I can understand limited supplies of newly released watches. This is fine, but when you can’t just go in and buy a staple it is pretty ridiculous. It would be like BMW or Mercedes having no 328i’s or C-classes in stock.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

sure. Hype sells watches. There are threads every day that say "i wanted this watch but was offered that. Its hard to get to so i bought it" People want blue sky dwellers and they buy black. They want a white daytona but buy a black when offered. They still would buy the one they really want if they get the chance too

Scarcity also created secondary premiums and people then think they are investments and buy away. Without a premium and the thought they are putting their money in an appreciating asset the 10K watch buyer pool gets smaller. Brands that dont sell over retail on the secondary market are tough sells right now, and they are not worse watches at all.

Interesting. I dont necessarily disagree about the hype.

However, I would be curious to look at the numbers (which of course I never will). I have a sneaky suspicion they were selling a lot more before. After all, there was so much more to sell.

Empty cases with no stock to sell, vs. full cases with tons of stock moving through.

I agree that most people now jump on an opportunity. But that is only because the opportunities are few and far between these days.

Boy, I would love to know the answer to this.

[dannyr1986]

My AD claims that they were told to expect a shipment of "some" 4th quarter 2018.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

sure. Hype sells watches. There are threads every day that say "i wanted this watch but was offered that. Its hard to get to so i bought it" People want blue sky dwellers and they buy black. They want a white daytona but buy a black when offered. They still would buy the one they really want if they get the chance too

Scarcity also created secondary premiums and people then think they are investments and buy away. Without a premium and the thought they are putting their money in an appreciating asset the 10K watch buyer pool gets smaller. Brands that dont sell over retail on the secondary market are tough sells right now, and they are not worse watches at all.

Can’t say I fully agree with it all but you are right hype to a degree sells watches!

I mentioned a while back an interesting convo I had with two SA’s from different branches of a big UK AD, both worked locations within the M25, and they both said off the back of the ceramic Daytona hype they have been selling loads of PM and TT Daytona’s, they said the non WIS guys comes in with a knowledge of the SS Daytona but not to the degree of collectors but just wants in on the hype and once told there is no SS but they have this TT or better still a PM model you can walk out with today and they get the sale, one quoted he was shifting twice the TT/PM Daytona’s he was prior to the ceramics release.

Not saying this works across the board but just two interesting POV’s from two separate SA’s!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by SC11

Can’t say I fully agree with it all but you are right hype to a degree sells watches!

I mentioned a while back an interesting convo I had with two SA’s from different branches of a big UK AD, both worked locations within the M25, and they both said off the back of the ceramic Daytona hype they have been selling loads of PM and TT Daytona’s, they said the non WIS guys comes in with a knowledge of the SS Daytona but not to the degree of collectors but just wants in on the hype and once told there is no SS but they have this TT or better still a PM model you can walk out with today and they get the sale, one quoted he was shifting twice the TT/PM Daytona’s he was prior to the ceramics release.

Not saying this works across the board but just two interesting POV’s from two separate SA’s!

My guy seems chipper AF about the state of the industry. I think they are killing it. Lest we forget 24 months ago nothing but headlines of a declining industry.

[lecorsaire]

I never meant to say that they should always have a dozen Daytona’s and BLROs in stock. It is fine to limit certain models to create excitement. The problem is when they start applying this to nearly everything that watch connoisseurs are interested in. I know personally I would never buy some two tone Daytona or a steel DJ just to buy something because they don’t have what I want.

I will be in the market for a new watch, specifically PM. I have to visit some ADs and decide what I want although a few are on my mind. A gold sub, blue or black, yellow gold Daytona green dial, rose gold Daytona black dial and maybe white gold Daytona blue dial. I would consider the gold CHNR but it’s probably unavailable.

[T01]

Originally Posted by fiebru1119

Does Rolex really shut down and go on holiday like that? Didn’t know:

My last AD said he sold almost 100 Rolex pieces over the few weeks December last year for tourists and the holidays. Sweating bullets about how he’s going to fare this year with nothing in the cases.

Yes, they shut down from sometime late in the year until early the following.

[ArtNouveau]

I was visiting my AD salesman Saturday, known him over 20 years. I asked him point blank if the SS shortage was hurting him or the store personally, he said no. Face it we forumites are a minority in the world of Rolex buyers. He says a large percentage of their sales are people coming in to celebrate a milestone. They want a Rolex and will leave the shop with one. They still have plenty of Datejusts in steel and twotone and they sell tons of them, he also says gold model sales are up this year too.
They still get SS sports models, the only difference is they’re all presold these days. For comparison, this is a boutique in an upscale mall that sees lots of international business folks and tourists.

[Vaxe]

I’m really beginning to wonder if Rolex is intentionally creating scarcity, or if demand>supply. Same goes for Patek Nautilus/Aquanaut.

Originally Posted by lecorsaire

I also think this lack of supply is creating a very dangerous bubble which can and will probably burst as soon as the market runs into problems. The bull market cannot last forever. While the tax cuts and low unemployment have boosted confidence, this administration has also been intervening too much with the economy IMO. Tariffs, trade wars is never good for business. And now they are being used to bully other nations into capitulating on political demands. Who knows what will happen.

I can only imagine the amount of people who will be trying to offload all this stuff they bought for ridiculous premiums especially if they were bought with credit. Recently there was a bubble in the GPU market due to mining and now that BTC fell to 6,000 ish, OEMS have been returning hundreds of thousands of GPUs back to manufacturers since there is no way they can sell them all now that mining is not as profitable.

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I was visiting my AD salesman Saturday, known him over 20 years. I asked him point blank if the SS shortage was hurting him or the store personally, he said no. Face it we forumites are a minority in the world of Rolex buyers. He says a large percentage of their sales are people coming in to celebrate a milestone. They want a Rolex and will leave the shop with one. They still have plenty of Datejusts in steel and twotone and they sell tons of them, he also says gold model sales are up this year too.
.

Yes, WIS is a small group of Rolex consumers. 99 percents of the customers will just grab a DJ/TT/PM and call it a day. By artificially create scarcity of the low profit margin SS Sports, this helps moving higher profit margin DJ/TT/PM pieces. And SS sports are reserved for VIP customers who spend big to archive such status. SS BLRO is reserved for even higher tier-1 customers.

IMO there's no incentive for Rolex to produce more low profit margin SS Sport watches.

A win for Rolex.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

Yes, WIS is a small group of Rolex consumers. 99 percents of the customers will just grab a DJ/TT/PM and call it a day. By artificially create scarcity of the low profit margin SS Sports, this helps moving higher profit margin DJ/TT/PM pieces. And SS sports are reserved for VIP customers who spend big to archive such status. SS BLRO is reserved for even higher tier-1 customers.

IMO there's no incentive for Rolex to produce more low profit margin SS Sport watches.

A win for Rolex.

Are you saying that >200000 TRF members x the potential number of Rolex watches that might be purchased by these members in one year = 1% of Rolex yearly sales.?

Hmmmmm......

[Vivalas]

It’s a win win situation for Rolex.

5% of people know and understand the value of the SS professional models (most of those are on watch forums). We’re the ones who talk about Rolex, crave for them, publicise them and in return push their prices up.

95% of people just want a Rolex, they don’t really know about the desired models and will buy what’s available.

In all truth Rolex probably love people like us, we’re in a round about way selling all their datejusts and pm pieces for them!

[piratepress]

Back in May, my AD said to look for my Pepsi around October. I suppose if they don't get it by then, it will be 2019 before the next shipment!

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

It’s a win win situation for Rolex.

5% of people know and understand the value of the SS professional models (most of those are on watch forums). We’re the ones who talk about Rolex, crave for them, publicise them and in return push their prices up.

95% of people just want a Rolex, they don’t really know about the desired models and will buy what’s available.

In all truth Rolex probably love people like us, we’re in a round about way selling all their datejusts and pm pieces for them!

that may be true, but i do think the buzz of the sports models especially right now has the effect of elevating the entire brand well above where they would be otherwise. A DJ is more desired as well because Rolex is a hot watch company (hotter than normal anyway). Scarcity is elevating the entire brand even those watches that are not scarce.

[123Blueface]

Rolex probably does not care at all about the grey market if their SS watches are selling above retail due to demand. The grey can only adversely affect the brand if selling for considerably less than retail.

SS watches are clearly not the higher margin profit makers for Rolex. Their PM watches are. Scarcity of SS is due to demand and Rolex’s desire to not produce more so folks can find their way over to TT and more specifically, PM.

Say what you may about such a business model but it’s genius. You are still selling all of your SS while creating a greater demand for TT and PM, that generate the greater revenue.

[AboutTime]

My AD hasn't seen one as of last time I checked.

[dardeca]

Originally Posted by 123Blueface

Rolex probably does not care at all about the grey market if their SS watches are selling above retail due to demand. The grey can only adversely affect the brand if selling for considerably less than retail.

SS watches are clearly not the higher margin profit makers for Rolex. Their PM watches are. Scarcity of SS is due to demand and Rolex’s desire to not produce more so folks can find their way over to TT and more specifically, PM.

Say what you may about such a business model but it’s genius. You are still selling all of your SS while creating a greater demand for TT and PM, that generate the greater revenue.

Not true...Rolex does NOT like grey dealers at all...especially those selling new, hard to get pieces at amounts substantially above MSRP prices (i.e., SS Daytona, SS BLRO, Sub LVc, etc.).

[123Blueface]

Originally Posted by dardeca

Not true...Rolex does NOT like grey dealers at all...especially those selling new, hard to get pieces at amounts substantially above MSRP prices (i.e., SS Daytona, SS BLRO, Sub LVc, etc.).

....and you got his from the horse’s mouth?