It's happening....

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

On a Tudor BB58. There was never a good timing to make money on that watch.

Too many people overextending themselves.

No there was a time when that piece was pretty hyped up and selling over retail for a while. It’s still pretty popular and sells quickly in the boutiques. But I agree with what you’re saying overall.

[BillA]

The question is: When will we know when things are back to “normal.” My definition of normal is when you can walk into an AD and there is a selection of watches to buy in the AD’s showcase. Right now Rolex watches in the showcase are either non-existent or Exhibition models, which are not for sale.

If and when this occurs, then you will know the game is over for the grey dealers gouging us for watches because then we can buy at MSRP.

When will this occur? We will have to stand-bye.

[JonaG]

Who knows what will happen, I would love to walk into an AD and either buy or order the watch of my choosing. The past 5 or 6 years, in life in general has taught me everything I thought I knew for certain can be turned on its head, so again, who knows...

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by BillA

The question is: When will we know when things are back to “normal.” My definition of normal is when you can walk into an AD and there is a selection of watches to buy in the AD’s showcase. Right now Rolex watches in the showcase are either non-existent or Exhibition models, which are not for sale.

If and when this occurs, then you will know the game is over for the grey dealers gouging us for watches because then we can buy at MSRP.

When will this occur? We will have to stand-bye.

ADs will resist this because they have been using Rolex as a bargaining chip, to make customers purchase other stuff, and doing very well from it. And also selling to the grey market themselves. However, the market will prevail. Rolex will keep churning those watches out. Grey dealers, flippers and ADs will not like it but they will not be able to stop it. Watches will become available again. COVID craziness will pass.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by BillA

The question is: When will we know when things are back to “normal.” My definition of normal is when you can walk into an AD and there is a selection of watches to buy in the AD’s showcase. Right now Rolex watches in the showcase are either non-existent or Exhibition models, which are not for sale.

If and when this occurs, then you will know the game is over for the grey dealers gouging us for watches because then we can buy at MSRP.

When will this occur? We will have to stand-bye.

That’s important, a reference point.

Without one, all talk of corrections and price increases are quite meaningless and all debate will be at cross purposes.

My idea of normal, which is based on my own entry point into the brand is when everything apart from a select few references can be obtained at an AD without excessive hassle (read relationship or bundling).

The excessive demand of the past year has abated somewhat and should continue to until the ‘new’ normal where it isn’t impossible for a new customer to get a DJ, but the usual hot references will still be reserved for ‘preferred’ customers.

A lot depends on economic conditions that will play out over the next year or so though.

Rolex is no longer … just a watch.


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[mdmoini]

Interesting that there are not 41mm DJs included in their sale.

[dowheelies]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I totally agree. I would love to see 2014 prices all over again. Then everything would be back to normal.

Well that may be a bit of a stretch but it sure would make deciding on whether I pick up a No Date Sub or a GMT a much easier decision. I’d buy both!!

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ghlight=114060

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ght=116710BLNR


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[JRell]

Inflation was at its peak last month, will start to come down and so will the price of aftermarket Rolex.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by dowheelies

Well that may be a bit of a stretch but it sure would make deciding on whether I pick up a No Date Sub or a GMT a much easier decision. I’d buy both!!

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ghlight=114060

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ght=116710BLNR


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Have to agree with you only way back to 2014 is call up doc and jump in the Delorean!!

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I don’t know why you would think the people setting the pricing are the idiots. Aren’t the people paying the prices the idiots? So many members on this forum attack the wrong people in this game. So if you had a discontinued hulk for example. You can use any watch in this example but I’ll use the hulk. If you put it on eBay for a bidding war and it got all the way up to $75,000 that some guy actually paid you; for you to be consistent you would blame yourself for taking the money and not the person who gave it to you right?

During the mass exodus that still continues to this day from northern states that had extremely harsh restrictions during Covid to southern states like Florida that didn’t a massive stress has been put on the housing market down here. Wealthy people from places like New Jersey got in bidding wars for particular houses all over our state. They were buying houses that were typically worth $300,000 for upwards of $800,000. It happened some friends of mine in the Tampa area. They were perfectly happy in their house and some dude offered 2 1/2 times what it was worth and the next thing you know they had to pack up and leave. Laughing all the way of course. They are not idiots.

Bret

We are somewhat vets to TRF and my only point in that comment is with all these market adjustments, people dropping prices, people talking market gloom and doom, which I think we still have a long way to go before that happens was in reference to one watch.

A 13 year old 116505 for basically $85k. I’m sorry that just nuts. It’s like the website is somewhat desperate to move inventory with bundles etc but wait lets slide this piece in at a ridiculous price that I’d imagine even someone with money to burn wouldn’t pay. Quite a few Greys have BNIB 505’s for 10k less. Much less a 2010 probably watch only. Is that dial discontinued? Even if so still bonkers.

I only stumbled upon there recent tactics from this thread granted I’m familiar with there site and just IMO thought why in the hell would they do that on that one reference. Well as you stated they can and someone might pay it. Ok. Fine.

Just looks as they’re desperate but yet still pricing insane. I’d like to think you’d want some type of uniformity.


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[WantBlue15202]

The ADs may also break, but their habits will probably be slower to change (like Grey's lowering prices). People watching prices plummet and know they can't exit at break-even (with tax) or a profit, may think twice about buying in the first place.

More so for buyers using credit / borrowed money to do it prior. You usually don't see a rush of buyers come in when things are crashing - people tend to spectate.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by WantBlue15202

The ADs may also break, but their habits will probably be slower to change (like Grey's lowering prices). People watching prices plummet and know they can't exit at break-even (with tax) or a profit, may think twice about buying in the first place.

More so for buyers using credit / borrowed money to do it prior. You usually don't see a rush of buyers come in when things are crashing - people tend to spectate.

Yeah as I have stated quite a few times all over TRF that no matter what happens with the secondary/Grey market the A D mentality will be the toughest one to break/change.

They have gotten used to all this and as long as they retain all the power meaning actual watches it will be a very very very very very slow roll out in any change. Had a buddy tell me he was told that a SD43 is as rare and as tough to get as PM pieces. SD43 really? So with that type of talk being told, less and less A D's, and on and on we have a long waaaaaaay to go.

IMO we will never ever ever ever see a point in time when Greys arent needed. Thats just the facts for some buyers. The only question is for how much over and does it make sense. Case in point if I were after a YG DD and found one BNIB for mid to low 40's considering the tax factor I'd be all over that IF I COULD NOT get one from my A D.

However lets revisit this thread and the dozens just like it in 6 months or so

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Yeah as I have stated quite a few times all over TRF that no matter what happens with the secondary/Grey market the A D mentality will be the toughest one to break/change.

They have gotten used to all this and as long as they retain all the power meaning actual watches it will be a very very very very very slow roll out in any change. Had a buddy tell me he was told that a SD43 is as rare and as tough to get as PM pieces. SD43 really? So with that type of talk being told, less and less A D's, and on and on we have a long waaaaaaay to go.

IMO we will never ever ever ever see a point in time when Greys arent needed. Thats just the facts for some buyers. The only question is for how much over and does it make sense. Case in point if I were after a YG DD and found one BNIB for mid to low 40's considering the tax factor I'd be all over that IF I COULD NOT get one from my A D.

However lets revisit this thread and the dozens just like it in 6 months or so

Greys will always serve a purpose. They used to be the cheapest price. Today they are the fastest availability, but at highest price. I think they will settle in between, at slightly faster availability for a reasonable premium. I also think ADs will feel the heat to move inventory when people stop buying as much but the shipments from Rolex keep coming in. They will dig in as long as they can, but the tide will wash over them.

[Watch Maniac]

This is why I buy older stuff 16610V & 14060.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Bret

We are somewhat vets to TRF and my only point in that comment is with all these market adjustments, people dropping prices, people talking market gloom and doom, which I think we still have a long way to go before that happens was in reference to one watch.

A 13 year old 116505 for basically $85k. I’m sorry that just nuts. It’s like the website is somewhat desperate to move inventory with bundles etc but wait lets slide this piece in at a ridiculous price that I’d imagine even someone with money to burn wouldn’t pay. Quite a few Greys have BNIB 505’s for 10k less. Much less a 2010 probably watch only. Is that dial discontinued? Even if so still bonkers.

I only stumbled upon there recent tactics from this thread granted I’m familiar with there site and just IMO thought why in the hell would they do that on that one reference. Well as you stated they can and someone might pay it. Ok. Fine.

Just looks as they’re desperate but yet still pricing insane. I’d like to think you’d want some type of uniformity.


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Brother I completely agree with you. I think the only disagreement you and I have is where we lay the blame. I do not blame the grey dealers. I just can’t. It’s the people giving them the money who is the blame in my opinion. When they stop overpaying for these things, and it looks like we are heading in that direction then the grey dealers will stop asking for those prices. This is just my opinion.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Brother I completely agree with you. I think the only disagreement you and I have is where we lay the blame. I do not blame the grey dealers. I just can’t. It’s the people giving them the money who is the blame in my opinion. When they stop overpaying for these things, and it looks like we are heading in that direction then the grey dealers will stop asking for those prices. This is just my opinion.

Some greys hoarded to manipulate supply, along with other practices that I would consider unethical. You may call it capitalism, but I don’t.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Some greys hoarded to manipulate supply, along with other practices that I would consider unethical. You may call it capitalism, but I don’t.

Perhaps we should put those evil business people in prison for manipulating a market you happen to fancy eh comrade? Maybe you could name some other hobbies or interests you have where you believe the market should not be the determining factor as to pricing. Maybe we could get Congress to pass legislation putting you in charge of setting the prices in the watch market Could get interesting.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Greys will always serve a purpose. They used to be the cheapest price. Today they are the fastest availability, but at highest price. I think they will settle in between, at slightly faster availability for a reasonable premium. I also think ADs will feel the heat to move inventory when people stop buying as much but the shipments from Rolex keep coming in. They will dig in as long as they can, but the tide will wash over them.

Being you and I come from the same era or at least from what I can tell and our similar opinions I hope your right brother. What I'd give to just land one more, a 116505, and not have to be knocked upside the head or told its one of one Especially when I will take pretty much any dial.

And yes I also agree with Greys. I have bought from them in the past when it was IMO silly not to and also when I had no other choice other than giving up so I am sure at "some point" I will do it again. But ONLY if pricing is inline with MSRP plus tax. Maybe a small premium on top. Maybe. I have completed my Everose hat trick and I really dont have anymore itches to scratch. Well at least not any that involve me paying 50k and up for a 505. I already have my 515 so the 505 can sit on the back burner per se while I get old and wait

Lastly Nick I just dont see a point in time in the future when the Rolex mania cools off enough where A D's have no one coming in inquiring. Thus inventory will always be low and demand SKY HIGH according to the A D. Its obviously in there best interest to keep this money train rolling by manipulating reality.

But we can all hope right?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Perhaps we should put those evil business people in prison for manipulating a market you happen to fancy eh comrade? Maybe you could name some other hobbies or interests you have where you believe the market should not be the determining factor as to pricing. Maybe we could get Congress to pass legislation putting you in charge of setting the prices in the watch market Could get interesting.

I see, you condone unethical behavior. Good to know.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Being you and I come from the same era or at least from what I can tell and our similar opinions I hope your right brother. What I'd give to just land one more, a 116505, and not have to be knocked upside the head or told its one of one Especially when I will take pretty much any dial.

And yes I also agree with Greys. I have bought from them in the past when it was IMO silly not to and also when I had no other choice other than giving up so I am sure at "some point" I will do it again. But ONLY if pricing is inline with MSRP plus tax. Maybe a small premium on top. Maybe. I have completed my Everose hat trick and I really dont have anymore itches to scratch. Well at least not any that involve me paying 50k and up for a 505. I already have my 515 so the 505 can sit on the back burner per se while I get old and wait

Lastly Nick I just dont see a point in time in the future when the Rolex mania cools off enough where A D's have no one coming in inquiring. Thus inventory will always be low and demand SKY HIGH according to the A D. Its obviously in there best interest to keep this money train rolling by manipulating reality.

But we can all hope right?

We can hope, and time will tell.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I see, you condone unethical behavior. Good to know.

Let me help you out with this.

Unethical behavior = actions taking by others that rolex16 disagrees with.

There you go bro. That should clear up everything for you.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Brother I completely agree with you. I think the only disagreement you and I have is where we lay the blame. I do not blame the grey dealers. I just can’t. It’s the people giving them the money who is the blame in my opinion. When they stop overpaying for these things, and it looks like we are heading in that direction then the grey dealers will stop asking for those prices. This is just my opinion.

We are on the same channel. I'm in agreement with you on the Grey market.

Well to a certain point. Not ALL are bad or the big bad evil in our hobby. I dont ever remember reading or hearing people complain when they were selling thousands "under" MSRP. Some Greys just adapt and roll with the market better. I mentioned a few posts above that I have went Grey and a will probably do so in the future. Well maybe-See that comment

If we were in circa pre 2014-2015 you'd never read a bad word word about Greys but "some" have been bad to our hobby as of the recent Rolex madness the last 6 years or so. But thats to be expected when we have new Grey sellers/wannabe watch dealers popping up left and right.

I remember for me when the core group was made up of David, Oscar, Tony, Patrick, and Than. I have bought from all 5. Some experiences better than others. But now look......................

Therein lies the problem IMO

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let me help you out with this.

Unethical behavior = actions taking by others that rolex16 disagrees with.

There you go bro. That should clear up everything for you.

More like any reasonable and ethical person would disagree with. But keep going with the personal attacks. That’s what people that have no real argument to make do.

[TswaneNguni]

It's happening ...wearing more and more of my other brands .

Relax ~ Frankie Goes to Hollywood

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by rolex16

More like any reasonable and ethical person would disagree with. But keep going with the personal attacks. That’s what people that have no real argument to make do.

There is no personal attack by anything I wrote. You’re the one attacking members of this forum who are trusted sellers and have been selling watches to other members for two decades just about. You were calling them all unethical business people because you’re unhappy with the market prices. Your anger with me is because I disagree with you. Nothing personal about that. Perhaps you should stop insulting our trusted sellers here? Just a thought.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by samuel019

We are on the same channel. I'm in agreement with you on the Grey market.

Well to a certain point. Not ALL are bad or the big bad evil in our hobby. I dont ever remember reading or hearing people complain when they were selling thousands "under" MSRP. Some Greys just adapt and roll with the market better. I mentioned a few posts above that I have went Grey and a will probably do so in the future. Well maybe-See that comment

If we were in circa pre 2014-2015 you'd never read a bad word word about Greys but "some" have been bad to our hobby as of the recent Rolex madness the last 6 years or so. But thats to be expected when we have new Grey sellers/wannabe watch dealers popping up left and right.

I remember for me when the core group was made up of David, Oscar, Tony, Patrick, and Than. I have bought from all 5. Some experiences better than others. But now look......................

Therein lies the problem IMO

Exactly. I remember those times also. All these grey dealers were heroes here. They would buy a Rolex at a discount from an AD and then mark it up and sell it to us here and we would still get it below retail or at retail. Everyone was happy. Then the economy went ballistic in 2016 and money became rampant in everyone’s hands. A bad thing? No of course not but when that happens people buy luxury items and Rolex happens to be the most popular so the demand skyrocketed on them and that changed the pricing. If you have 10 of something and 40 people want it then pricing is going to be affected on it. That seems to be something our friend Rolex16 doesn’t understand or is unable to grasp.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

There is no personal attack by anything I wrote. You’re the one attacking members of this forum who are trusted sellers and have been selling watches to other members for two decades just about. You were calling them all unethical business people because you’re unhappy with the market prices. Your anger with me is because I disagree with you. Nothing personal about that. Perhaps you should stop insulting our trusted sellers here? Just a thought.

I said some, not all. And I will call it as I see it. You don’t think hoarding stock to artificially drive up prices is unethical. I do. End of story.

[dwaine99]

Going grey me thousands on my wife’s YG Datejust. Nothing out there I want bad enough to pay more than MSRP.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That seems to be something our friend Rolex16 doesn’t understand or is unable to grasp.

Personal attack.

[lear60man]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Yeah as I have stated quite a few times all over TRF that no matter what happens with the secondary/Grey market the A D mentality will be the toughest one to break/change.

They have gotten used to all this and as long as they retain all the power meaning actual watches it will be a very very very very very slow roll out in any change. Had a buddy tell me he was told that a SD43 is as rare and as tough to get as PM pieces. SD43 really? So with that type of talk being told, less and less A D's, and on and on we have a long waaaaaaay to go.

IMO we will never ever ever ever see a point in time when Greys arent needed. Thats just the facts for some buyers. The only question is for how much over and does it make sense. Case in point if I were after a YG DD and found one BNIB for mid to low 40's considering the tax factor I'd be all over that IF I COULD NOT get one from my A D.

However lets revisit this thread and the dozens just like it in 6 months or so

Few thoughts....I agree grey dealers have been around for ever. They just shift their business model to meet current market . In the last few years they have speculating and riding the tide up like most. Back in the day they just traded watches at a margin that was below MSRP or bought from ADs in Hong Kong and sold for a slim profit in other countries. The smart ones will have slimmed down their inventory quietly. The not so smart ones bag about how many millions they have 'in the safe' on youtube.

Crypto is also down 20%? in the last two weeks. Looks like the secondary money markets are all doing the same thing.