Why do APs not hold their value as well or appreciate like Rolex or Patek?

[jonathan17]

Originally Posted by benlee

Buying a Rolex to appear rich ( and I don't think there is anything wrong with that ) doesn't really work in my part of the world anymore, since Rolex in some cities like Hong Kong and Singapore is actually common. Driving a really nice car and even better owning a big house is a way more effective means of doing that.

Getting a audi R8 and a 2,800 sqft villa in singapore. One can dream. I know its mine

But true in this part of the world wearing a rolex is when one wants to be low key at some respect.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by jem7v

I agree. You'd think because of the increase in wealth in the upper end at least that would push the market towards brands like AP, RM, hublot. But their resale just keeps going down instead for whatever reason.

Err... because most people that can afford to will buy new? Just guessing. But again, you cannot apply a broad sweeping stick. Some selected models of AP and RM do have good resale value and in general better than many other brands with the exception of Rolex and PP. I will not comment about Hublot.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by benlee

Err... because most people that can afford to will buy new? Just guessing. But again, you cannot apply a broad sweeping stick. Some selected models of AP and RM do have good resale value and in general better than many other brands with the exception of Rolex and PP. I will not comment about Hublot.

Yes but a push in money for luxury watches over rolex should push the resale value of all APs. Not just some. If this was the case AP wouldn't be slashing prices left and right.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by benlee

I will not comment about Hublot.

Yes it is best not to comment on Hublot. Like ever.

[dexvd]

So I guess my question should be better phrased as why is there not the vintage or used market for AP as seen with Rolex? I believe Vacheron is in the same boat as AP... Lange I'm not so sure. I feel like the prices have risen for maybe the A series (or whatever the first series of Royal oak was) but other than that, they at least haven't stayed at replacement value whereas most Rolex watches seem to have done so. For example the GMT pepsi or the 16520 Daytona... I'm thinking these watches were cheaper and more common than most AP watches. Is it just popularity and brand awareness and will it continue this way into the future, will I be able to get a 10 year old pre-owned 15450ST for 50% less than what it cost new in the future?

Thats my approach, not really that I want to invest or buy watches that will have the value increase but I would like to eventually have one Royal Oak and maybe a Patek calatrava in the future but it seems like in terms of pre-owned and vintage market Rolex watches that aren't anything special seem to be getting more expensive, making some models too expensive while Royal Oak and well even a Patek Calatrava, seem to be getting more affordable with time.

Some people mentioned that Royal Oaks seem to age a lot worse and are a lot more expensive to repair which hurts their pre-owned market but I guess I'm wondering if people think this trend of soft pre-owned (like 10 year old watches) prices with APs will continue or if people have seen signs of this trend changing in some Royal Oak examples (not the super rare, super expensive models but just an average 14790, 15450). I have heard some rumblings of the 15300 market getting a little pricey is this the case, only for blue dials, how about pre-owned 15202s?

[benlee]

Originally Posted by jem7v

Yes but a push in money for luxury watches over rolex should push the resale value of all APs. Not just some. If this was the case AP wouldn't be slashing prices left and right.

Where did you see AP slashing price left and right? I am not seeing that except hard to move unpopular models at ADs. For example, there is no discount for the 2017 Novelties.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by dexvd

So I guess my question should be better phrased as why is there not the vintage or used market for AP as seen with Rolex? I believe Vacheron is in the same boat as AP... Lange I'm not so sure. I feel like the prices have risen for maybe the A series (or whatever the first series of Royal oak was) but other than that, they at least haven't stayed at replacement value whereas most Rolex watches seem to have done so. For example the GMT pepsi or the 16520 Daytona... I'm thinking these watches were cheaper and more common than most AP watches. Is it just popularity and brand awareness and will it continue this way into the future, will I be able to get a 10 year old pre-owned 15450ST for 50% less than what it cost new in the future?

Thats my approach, not really that I want to invest or buy watches that will have the value increase but I would like to eventually have one Royal Oak and maybe a Patek calatrava in the future but it seems like in terms of pre-owned and vintage market Rolex watches that aren't anything special seem to be getting more expensive, making some models too expensive while Royal Oak and well even a Patek Calatrava, seem to be getting more affordable with time.

Some people mentioned that Royal Oaks seem to age a lot worse and are a lot more expensive to repair which hurts their pre-owned market but I guess I'm wondering if people think this trend of soft pre-owned (like 10 year old watches) prices with APs will continue or if people have seen signs of this trend changing in some Royal Oak examples (not the super rare, super expensive models but just an average 14790, 15450). I have heard some rumblings of the 15300 market getting a little pricey is this the case, only for blue dials, how about pre-owned 15202s?

Pardon me but it sounds to me you are talking about watches as if they are landed properties, bonds and stocks. If the resale or "investment" value in AP watches makes you not comfortable, there are always some "blue chip" watches such as SS Rolex, Vintage Rolex or some PP models like 5711, 5970s, 5070s that you can choose from. These hold value relatively well so far and some even appreciate. You should buy AP because you like the watch itself, not to speculate and fret over their long term value. That will likely make the ownership experience very stressful. Just my two cents.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by benlee

Pardon me but it sounds to me you are talking about watches as if they are landed properties, bonds and stocks. If the resale or "investment" value in AP watches makes you not comfortable, there are always some "blue chip" watches such as SS Rolex, Vintage Rolex or some PP models like 5711, 5970s, 5070s that you can choose from. These hold value relatively well so far and some even appreciate. You should buy AP because you like the watch itself, not to speculate and fret over their long term value. That will likely make the ownership experience very stressful. Just my two cents.

Well put Ben.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by benlee

Pardon me but it sounds to me you are talking about watches as if they are landed properties, bonds and stocks. If the resale or "investment" value in AP watches makes you not comfortable, there are always some "blue chip" watches such as SS Rolex, Vintage Rolex or some PP models like 5711, 5970s, 5070s that you can choose from. These hold value relatively well so far and some even appreciate. You should buy AP because you like the watch itself, not to speculate and fret over their long term value. That will likely make the ownership experience very stressful. Just my two cents.

LOL This is true. I mean we are on a luxury watch forum. If not THEE most infamous watch forum on the internet. Someone said in a post above, if your complaining about losing money on your purchase, then your on the wrong website. WIS pretty much flip left and right and lose money on their purchases here and there all the time. You want an investment? Purchase a business, or invest in the stock market.

[dexvd]

Originally Posted by benlee

Pardon me but it sounds to me you are talking about watches as if they are landed properties, bonds and stocks. If the resale or "investment" value in AP watches makes you not comfortable, there are always some "blue chip" watches such as SS Rolex, Vintage Rolex or some PP models like 5711, 5970s, 5070s that you can choose from. These hold value relatively well so far and some even appreciate. You should buy AP because you like the watch itself, not to speculate and fret over their long term value. That will likely make the ownership experience very stressful. Just my two cents.

I'm not sure how to phrase what I'm saying so you guys don't think I'm thinking of them as stocks or bonds. I'm not planning to flip, I'm just trying to prioritize the acquisition of the different watches I want to have in my collection. None of them are especially rare and I was always under the belief that for the most part "no modern rolexes will become collectible" I considered the 5 digit references to fall into modern but they seem to be holding their replacement value or exceeding it while the plain Royal Oak doesn't seem to be. I'm concerned that some Rolex watches I like now will be unaffordable in the future which confuses me because I would think the rarer and higher priced AP would be at least performing as well as a pre-owned or vintage Rolex from the same period due to its higher initial value and increased rarity.... Is the service from AP similar to Rolex for older watches 10-20 years old?

[syahriltaher]

Here in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia), AP tend to hold their resale value very well...especially Royal Oak Offshore Chronograph....


Regards,

[improviz]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I'm not sure how to phrase what I'm saying so you guys don't think I'm thinking of them as stocks or bonds. I'm not planning to flip, I'm just trying to prioritize the acquisition of the different watches I want to have in my collection. None of them are especially rare and I was always under the belief that for the most part "no modern rolexes will become collectible" I considered the 5 digit references to fall into modern but they seem to be holding their replacement value or exceeding it while the plain Royal Oak doesn't seem to be. I'm concerned that some Rolex watches I like now will be unaffordable in the future which confuses me because I would think the rarer and higher priced AP would be at least performing as well as a pre-owned or vintage Rolex from the same period due to its higher initial value and increased rarity.... Is the service from AP similar to Rolex for older watches 10-20 years old?

There is something to be said for marketing. Consider the $$$ that Rolex has funneled into marketing and it's really not surprising that, in lieu of their total sales, they're highly collectible. Vintage APs are worth a lot too depending upon model (first year Jumbos, for example, ain't exactly cheap), but AP doesn't have the brand recognition of Rolex and that's a fact.

Customer-service wise, AP's service on vintage pieces is infinitely better than Rolexes' by virtue of the fact that Rolex does not service vintage pieces. AP does.

One other point: there are some rather hyperbolic claims making the rounds in this thread that need addressing. For one, that AP is "slashing prices", which is news to me as I have seen no evidence of this, and for two, that prices are falling on preowned models as again, I monitor this on WatchRecon and don't see them falling; in fact I've seen the 15400s' prices *increasing* over the last few years.

Wrt ownership cost, I view it as entry price - sale price. So if I can pick up a BNIB 15400 at 20% off, that puts it at about $14.4K. Used they're in the $12.7K range, so figure $1700-$2K depreciation. Compare that with my GMTIIc, which I got BNIB for $7200, which was a good deal at that time, and is now worth about $6500, or $700. So net difference is about a thousand or so, completely acceptable to me given the > 2X MSRP differential and higher quality/workmanship of the AP.

Ymmv, but that's a pretty small hit to take in the overall scheme of things.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by benlee

Where did you see AP slashing price left and right? I am not seeing that except hard to move unpopular models at ADs. For example, there is no discount for the 2017 Novelties.

AP cut the platinum 44RG by like 30-40k. AP cut the brick a ton. AP cut the 44RG ROO a ton. AP cut most recently the ceramic. AP priced the TI below the SS. These are all in the last 5 years.

And for your info for my 2017 RG 44mm I got a massive percent off that I won't publicly share because I don't need to help in devaluing my own watch.

And just lately there has been a massive general town turn for these watches in the last 2 years in the secondary market for whatever reason.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I'm not sure how to phrase what I'm saying so you guys don't think I'm thinking of them as stocks or bonds. I'm not planning to flip, I'm just trying to prioritize the acquisition of the different watches I want to have in my collection. None of them are especially rare and I was always under the belief that for the most part "no modern rolexes will become collectible" I considered the 5 digit references to fall into modern but they seem to be holding their replacement value or exceeding it while the plain Royal Oak doesn't seem to be. I'm concerned that some Rolex watches I like now will be unaffordable in the future which confuses me because I would think the rarer and higher priced AP would be at least performing as well as a pre-owned or vintage Rolex from the same period due to its higher initial value and increased rarity.... Is the service from AP similar to Rolex for older watches 10-20 years old?

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

LOL This is true. I mean we are on a luxury watch forum. If not THEE most infamous watch forum on the internet. Someone said in a post above, if your complaining about losing money on your purchase, then your on the wrong website. WIS pretty much flip left and right and lose money on their purchases here and there all the time. You want an investment? Purchase a business, or invest in the stock market.

Originally Posted by benlee

Pardon me but it sounds to me you are talking about watches as if they are landed properties, bonds and stocks. If the resale or "investment" value in AP watches makes you not comfortable, there are always some "blue chip" watches such as SS Rolex, Vintage Rolex or some PP models like 5711, 5970s, 5070s that you can choose from. These hold value relatively well so far and some even appreciate. You should buy AP because you like the watch itself, not to speculate and fret over their long term value. That will likely make the ownership experience very stressful. Just my two cents.

I think OP is trying to accomplish 2 things. He doesn't want to buy a watch that is going to lose massive amounts of money SHOULD he ever want to resell it. The reason for this is probably because he isn't bat sh** crazy over any of them. I understand this. While I love AP and Patek, the ones in my price range under 40k are probably none I'd keep forever. So I'd like to know my loss should I choose to sell is minimal.

To his second point, he has an order in which he wants to purchase watches. He wants to prioritize that by getting the ones in his price range early on, because some are going up in value and may go out of his range.

To answer his question, I don't think he has to worry about any AP's increasing in value and going out of his price range unless he is looking at the racing edition ones. So the TI schumacher would be something he could worry about. It could be 40-50k when it comes out but now is like 60k. If my budget was only 50k and I got a 15400 today to get the TI schumacher tomorrow, well I can't afford it anymore if it went 10k out of my budget. So the smart choice would be get the appreciating watch today, and get the common one tomorrow.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by improviz

There is something to be said for marketing. Consider the $$$ that Rolex has funneled into marketing and it's really not surprising that, in lieu of their total sales, they're highly collectible. Vintage APs are worth a lot too depending upon model (first year Jumbos, for example, ain't exactly cheap), but AP doesn't have the brand recognition of Rolex and that's a fact.

Customer-service wise, AP's service on vintage pieces is infinitely better than Rolexes' by virtue of the fact that Rolex does not service vintage pieces. AP does.

One other point: there are some rather hyperbolic claims making the rounds in this thread that need addressing. For one, that AP is "slashing prices", which is news to me as I have seen no evidence of this, and for two, that prices are falling on preowned models as again, I monitor this on WatchRecon and don't see them falling; in fact I've seen the 15400s' prices *increasing* over the last few years.

Wrt ownership cost, I view it as entry price - sale price. So if I can pick up a BNIB 15400 at 20% off, that puts it at about $14.4K. Used they're in the $12.7K range, so figure $1700-$2K depreciation. Compare that with my GMTIIc, which I got BNIB for $7200, which was a good deal at that time, and is now worth about $6500, or $700. So net difference is about a thousand or so, completely acceptable to me given the > 2X MSRP differential and higher quality/workmanship of the AP.

Ymmv, but that's a pretty small hit to take in the overall scheme of things.

You should check again. 44RG for the first time is selling below 35k. Look on this forum right now there is one sitting at 34k unsold.

The 41 RG ROC is now hitting low 40s to high 30s. The 41 RG RO is now in the 30k range.

SS 44mm is selling for high teens. 18-20k range. My 44mm CE that I sold when they cut the price by 10 f**king thousand was selling always in the low 30s. When I got mine, I got it for 27k brand new. Luckily I sold it for pretty much what I paid before all the dealers realized what AP had done, though some offered me 20k for mine after they heard the news.

Someone here said they got their 41 RO for close to 11k brand new from takuya. The 44mm Platinum is now in the low 40k. The TI barr is now in the 30s when easily it was always above 40k.

Idk how many more examples I should give of the secondary market. Go look at crm jewelers. Actually, because of how many watches they get and how quick they sell, they are not a bad indicator of the overall market. They typically buy 15% under what they list. They tend to have some of the cheapest prices.

[improviz]

15400 BNIB
June 2015 $13525
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=5929607

Feb 2017 $13725
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=7371923

I don't follow PM pieces so much as they tend to be much more volatile than SS (and I don't fancy them at any rate). Still, I took a look at the RG 44, and if I look at same seller I don't see it falling all that much from Oct 2014 till June 2016 (latest sale Takuya, the guy you mentioned, had available):

26401 BNIB
Oct 2014 $40125
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=5303419

June 2016 $39025
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=480347

$900 is not exactly "slashed" and there is a supply/demand issue: when a piece is newer/scarcer it will retail out higher than when it's been around a while/more supply.

[Marciano490]

The 'ask' is a terrible indicator. Too few people know the market. This thread is proof, and let's assume people here are in the top 3% of knowledgeable buyers.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by improviz

I don't follow PM pieces so much as they tend to be much more volatile than SS (and I don't fancy them at any rate). Still, I took a look at the RG 44, and if I look at same seller I don't see it falling all that much from Oct 2014 till June 2016 (latest sale Takuya, the guy you mentioned, had available):

26401
Oct 2014 $40125
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=5303419

June 2016 $39025
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=480347

$900 is not exactly "slashed" and there is a supply/demand issue: when a piece is newer/scarcer it will retail out higher than when it's been around a while/more supply.

I mentioned takuya since someone here said they got a RO from him at that price which I thought was extremely cheap. But someone here now is trying to sell a RG 44mm for some time J series I think it was at 34k now.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=517850 Here is one at 35k more recent.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=521406

Another at 33,750.

I saw one person asking 37k for their RG (they are insane and it will never sell at that price). But for a while this piece in particular was holding strong in the high 35k+ range.

But forget about PM ones as typically when prices of the underlying commodity falls, so will they. But if you look at the manmade material pricing decisions for the ceramic or the TI, it speaks to something AP has noticed.

I'd be interested to see if they bring back the 44FC what it would be priced at. That was getting super soft but the prices seem to have steadied out now that AP didn't introduce a new one.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

The 'ask' is a terrible indicator. Too few people know the market. This thread is proof, and let's assume people here are in the top 3% of knowledgeable buyers.

Agreed. I can get a 15400 new from my AD for 12-12.5k. But man I really like that 11k Takuya price :).

[improviz]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

The 'ask' is a terrible indicator. Too few people know the market. This thread is proof, and let's assume people here are in the top 3% of knowledgeable buyers.

Nope. Further, this phenomenon is not abnormal in PM watches, which have much higher losses intrinsically than SS (as they comprise a much smaller market share, i.e. lower demand). For example, lest we become guilty of singling out AP's PM pieces, and since this thread is claiming that AP's resale is so much worse than Rolex's, let's have a look at the vaunted Platinum Daytona for comparison:

NIB Daytona Platinum:
Jan 2014 $65575
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=334384

January 2015 $58,875
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=392213

December 2015 $52,575
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=446802

Feb 2017 $48,475
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=735016

[improviz]

Originally Posted by jem7v

I mentioned takuya since someone here said they got a RO from him at that price which I thought was extremely cheap. But someone here now is trying to sell a RG 44mm for some time J series I think it was at 34k now.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=517850 Here is one at 35k more recent.

That's preowned. The ones I listed are BNIB, tracked over the last few years. Please use apples-apples comparison as it's not really fair to compare my BNIB prices against preowned.

Originally Posted by jem7v

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=521406

Another at 33,750.

Another preowned one. Again: apples to apples, please. Comparing preowned vs my new prices is really not a particularly fair comparison, is it?

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by improviz

Nope. Further, this phenomenon is not abnormal in PM watches, which have much higher losses intrinsically than SS (as they comprise a much smaller market share, i.e. lower demand). For example, lest we become guilty of singling out AP's PM pieces, and since this thread is claiming that AP's resale is so much worse than Rolex's, let's have a look at the vaunted Platinum Daytona for comparison:

NIB Daytona Platinum:
Jan 2014 $65575
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=334384

January 2015 $58,875
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=392213

December 2015 $52,575
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=446802

Feb 2017 $48,475
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?p=735016

Originally Posted by improviz

That's preowned. The ones I listed are BNIB, tracked over the last few years. Please use apples-apples comparison as it's not really fair to compare my BNIB prices against preowned.



Another preowned one. Again: apples to apples, please. Comparing preowned vs my new prices is really not a particularly fair comparison, is it?

I'm talking used market. I thought that was what you were referencing. If you want to go only new I guess I should use my brand new RG 44mm as an example. Last year I could never get any AD to sell it to me under 35k.

I think though PM watches should be long term more valuable than SS, since there is an underlying value/commodity to them. For instance I haven't seen any gold ROO hit below 20k yet. But the steels are low 10k range and some older ones are below that.

Rolex PM prices I think are the same as AP as far as depreciation. Vintage watches are not my thing so I can only speak to the modern ones. If anything I think AP PM prices may hold up better than some rolex ones.

[improviz]

Oh. Well, prices I posted were BNIB over a few years to see how much they've come down, preowned are very dependent upon condition and are tougher to benchmark. But there I'm sure as I mentioned before that some of it is due to the newness wearing off, and doubtlessly that will factor in to preowned prices. PMs in particular are always pretty volatile, and especially rose gold, which has always been kind of an in/out thing with consumers.

Insofar as the market as a whole: I would expect prices to soften in current market as Swiss watch sales were down worldwide markedly last year due to several factors, but not so much here in the US, and prices I've seen reflect this: down but not catastrophically so.

[texex91]

This ping pong thread is giving me a headache.

It's simple:

- AP overproduced
- Market is slow
- They have to shove stuff out the back door (as do AD's)
- Secondary market gets killed

And here we are...it's pretty simple.

Still a great watch in my book and great time to buy if you want to hold for a long time.

[improviz]

Yup...down times in the SW industry in 2016. AsiaPac fell off a cliff and caught them all unaware, hopefully 2017 will be smoother sailing.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by texex91

This ping pong thread is giving me a headache.

Exactly. This thread makes my head spin. It reads like some bloomberg financial commentary more than TRF watch discussion.

I have enough of bloomberg during my working hours. Seriously, I prefer to enjoy wearing my watches rather than getting obsessed with the monetary value of what is essentially a luxury purchase past, present and future. So let these guys continue

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by texex91

This ping pong thread is giving me a headache.

People will sell their timepieces for what ever price they think it will sell for. People in this thread are acting like the TRF for sale section is Christie's Auction House.

[GB-man]

Yeah Paul hit the nail on the head.

Can't ignore AP has struggled with pricing strategy these past few years. Good thing they make gorgeous watches, if they were anyone else...

[VICI]

Originally Posted by Hairdude1

I'll continue to buy AP bc I like the brand and and if I loose a little bc I bought right I am ok as I have enjoyed the time on my wrist. I consider it a win win

This is the way to think.

These things are not investments for gains as much as enjoying what's on your wrist until you find the next one.

I spoke to a friend that'll never sell any watch he buys because he has a story for each purchase.

But yes, it would be nice for them to hold their value or even appreciate.

[Tomas Eriksson]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Yeah Paul hit the nail on the head.

Can't ignore AP has struggled with pricing strategy these past few years. Good thing they make gorgeous watches, if they were anyone else...

Agree, i also thinks the price strategy is somewhat the cause. Audemars haven't increased prices at the same rate as Rolex since the millennium. To be fair, I don't think it would have been viable for AP.

Rolex second hand prices has rode one the price increase of new pieces, in terms of pricing Rolex has never been this close to AP. I can't see this continuing, and my guess is that a lot of new Rolex being bought today will actually loose more than popular APs. Or who knows, maybe Rolex can keep it up...