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View Poll Results: When will the newbie get the call?
September - October 2020 12 7.10%
November - December 2020 35 20.71%
January - February 2021 37 21.89%
March - April 2021 29 17.16%
May - June 2021 12 7.10%
July - August 2021 2 1.18%
September 2021 (1 year) 13 7.69%
October - December 2021 5 2.96%
January - August 2022 3 1.78%
September 2022 and beyond (2 years+) 21 12.43%
Voters: 169. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 21 September 2020, 10:50 AM   #1
thenewrick
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How long on waitlist for a OP41 Rolex Newbie?

I've been wanting to make this poll for a while.

I think it's a fun game given the current hype and state of things.

Here's the scenario:

Went into an AD and asked to be put on waitlist for an OP41 Silver Dial. This is my first interaction with the AD and no purchase history. I'm not a VIP or anything out of the ordinary; just an ordinary guy who saved up and is buying his 1st luxury watch.

I was told they'd call me when one became available but that there was significant interest in all the new models.

So it's as fresh and clean as a situation can be.

When do you realistically think I'll get the call to go buy it?

I don't mind waiting forever, I'm looking to purchase other brands as well in the meantime and no rush. I plan on calling the AD every month or two just to check in and say hi but definitely no hassling or other manipulations to the timeline.

When I do get the call, I'll post results with photo to see who was right!

Let the games begin!
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Old 21 September 2020, 10:53 AM   #2
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You’ll have it before Thanksgiving.
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Old 21 September 2020, 11:09 AM   #3
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I am guessing late fall to early winter. As soon as the hype wears down and the whales get theirs - I am sure that you'll get a call.
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Old 21 September 2020, 11:13 AM   #4
thenewrick
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I voted for January-Feb 21. My thinking is hype and demand will be strong through Holiday Season. Then things will calm down in the new year and demand will be satiated. 6 month wait just seemed reasonable.
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Old 21 September 2020, 11:19 AM   #5
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I am far from a ‘whale’ and put a deposit down on one Friday and was told I will have it this coming week or next so we will see how long it takes.
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Old 21 September 2020, 11:31 AM   #6
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I was heartened that the silver dial seems to be modestly popular. I like that it's versatile and would suit nicely as an every occasion first watch.

I'm not a fan of date complications and prefer thin cases as well.

I do want to try a watch with a jubilee bracelet at some point and would like a no date Submariner in the collection as well. So I'm hoping after this OP41 I'll be able to acquire a GMT Master 2 on a Jubilee and a no date Sub in the far future. Then I'm hoping to get a solid gold dress watch. But the journey of a thousand miles starts with a single waitlist.
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Old 20 October 2020, 01:40 AM   #7
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Quick update and hopefully more votes!

I am also on the list for a Submariner no date. I doubt it'll come in first but I didn't expect the silver OP41 to be so hyped!

I did my monthly check in with the AD this October and was told no new models have come in and no ETA.

Also called a Grand Seiko boutique and was told basically the same. Can't keep things in stock. Everything selling out and waitlists for new models. Seems like wristwatches are the it thing in 2020.
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Old 20 October 2020, 01:49 AM   #8
Early
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First post here and similar situation to OP (wait listed at two Ad’s for SD43 and Sub date & no date). No particular rush and will not go grey. Was told not to expect anything until next year at the earliest.

Thanks for making this poll, OP!
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Old 20 October 2020, 01:55 AM   #9
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I have spoken with two local AD’s specifically about the OP41’s. Both say that the brightly colored versions are in the highest demand. I believe you’ll get the silver dial with in 3-4 months if not sooner.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:02 AM   #10
thenewrick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Early View Post
First post here and similar situation to OP (wait listed at two Ad’s for SD43 and Sub date & no date). No particular rush and will not go grey. Was told not to expect anything until next year at the earliest.

Thanks for making this poll, OP!
No worries. Making a fun game out of a silly but realistic scenario.

I imagine there's a different expectation in a large metro area where you can get on the waitlist at 10 different shops but for me it's a 3 hour drive to the only AD near me. So it's just the 1 waitlist in a rural area.

My expectation is January/February 2021 after the Christmas buying season. I call it 2nd Black Friday because it seems like that's when everything goes on sale and is in-stock.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:03 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtNouveau View Post
I have spoken with two local AD’s specifically about the OP41’s. Both say that the brightly colored versions are in the highest demand. I believe you’ll get the silver dial with in 3-4 months if not sooner.
I've been checking Grey Vendors every now and then and they seem to have a good pulse on the market. The Turquoise and Red are selling for double MSRP and Silver around 50% markup but it changes week to week.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:13 AM   #12
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Hopefully, sooner than you might think. Hoping you get yours soon. All the best!
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:19 AM   #13
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Silver grey will be easy
Now if you want the turquoise of green... that might take a long time
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:22 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewrick View Post
I've been checking Grey Vendors every now and then and they seem to have a good pulse on the market. The Turquoise and Red are selling for double MSRP and Silver around 50% markup but it changes week to week.
I don’t agree. If you assume MSRP + tax = app. $6,500...

I’ve seen Silver for only 10-15% premium and other colors for 20-25% premium. Nowhere near double.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:28 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vh2k View Post
I don’t agree. If you assume MSRP + tax = app. $6,500...

I’ve seen Silver for only 10-15% premium and other colors for 20-25% premium. Nowhere near double.
Look at DavidSW website, asking $11K+ for the red one.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:48 AM   #16
thenewrick
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Yea for me it's:
$6,254.00 MSRP
$12,269.50 for the Red dial. 96% markup
$8,665.50 for the Silver dial. 39% markup
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:52 AM   #17
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I think it'll take a little more than 4 months before you get it.
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Old 20 October 2020, 02:53 AM   #18
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Some SA told my mate 3 years the other day! Utter nonsense
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Old 20 October 2020, 03:06 AM   #19
vh2k
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewrick View Post
Yea for me it's:
$6,254.00 MSRP
$12,269.50 for the Red dial. 96% markup
$8,665.50 for the Silver dial. 39% markup
$7,675 and they were previously selling for $7,000-7,300 recently.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...errerid=246550

Other colors are new. Prices will drop over time.
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Old 20 October 2020, 03:11 AM   #20
thenewrick
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There will always be cheaper individual sellers and bank wire only transactions and other such things. Some vendors/individuals require sales tax and some don't too.

I'm just going by DavidSW prices because he's a well known Grey Vendor and in my state.
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Old 20 October 2020, 03:41 AM   #21
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What’s everyone’s guesses for a turquoise 41?
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Old 20 October 2020, 05:31 AM   #22
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Quote:
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What’s everyone’s guesses for a turquoise 41?
The logical guess would be silver wait time + price difference in wait time of turquoise.

Something like 8 months would be my guess.
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Old 20 October 2020, 06:58 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
I am far from a ‘whale’ and put a deposit down on one Friday and was told I will have it this coming week or next so we will see how long it takes.
To update my original post in this thread I got the OP 41 Green dial in 3 weeks after deposit was placed.

According to my AD:

-Turquoise, Coral, Green, Yellow are in far higher demand than the Silver, Black, and Blue.

-All OP 41’s are going to be very hard to get after this first wave gets depleted.

TIFWIW
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Old 20 October 2020, 09:12 AM   #24
thenewrick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
To update my original post in this thread I got the OP 41 Green dial in 3 weeks after deposit was placed.

According to my AD:

-Turquoise, Coral, Green, Yellow are in far higher demand than the Silver, Black, and Blue.

-All OP 41’s are going to be very hard to get after this first wave gets depleted.

TIFWIW
I think black will be least popular, then blue. Silver is sort of medium. The wilder the colors the more popular they are though. The whole point of a Rolex is to be seen wearing a Rolex after all. The bigger the case the brighter the dial the better it'll sell. Hulk and Bluesy and Pepsi are all great examples. Peacocking with watches is back in style :D
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Old 20 October 2020, 09:25 AM   #25
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FWIW I ordered a black OP39 in July and got a call in mid-Sept that the AD had black and blue 36 and 41 for me to choose between. Also no previous relationship etc.
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Old 20 October 2020, 09:32 AM   #26
thenewrick
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FWIW I ordered a black OP39 in July and got a call in mid-Sept that the AD had black and blue 36 and 41 for me to choose between. Also no previous relationship etc.
Not bad. Sounds like being interested in the OP before new announcement helped.

I think until Grey Market prices drop to MSRP I'll be waiting.

When the new Rolex models are announced in April I expect a big drop in current year new model prices.

If they come out with a new 40+mm case olive dial sports model or OP, I'd get one of those for sure.

Ideal would be an updated Milgauss 41 with jubilee bracelet and olive dial. Dream watch right there.
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Old 20 October 2020, 10:54 AM   #27
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How often are you contacting your AD while waiting ?
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Old 20 October 2020, 11:02 AM   #28
thenewrick
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How often are you contacting your AD while waiting ?
Once a month
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Old 20 October 2020, 11:04 AM   #29
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I'm guessing you'll have it by late November. Maybe early December the latest.
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Old 20 October 2020, 12:53 PM   #30
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I personally hope you get real soon. I’m not a whale and I got my OP41 turquoise last week from the AD. You have a good positive attitude and approaching it the right way. Good things happen to good people. Ill be looking forward to seeing those pics when you get it!
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