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Old 17 March 2020, 01:47 PM   #2341
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Originally Posted by Dawg2 View Post
Interesting that there are cased being reported of reinfection by COVID19.

This whole situation is very odd and I don't feel we are getting full disclosure.

It won't be long before domestic air travel is severely curbed it halted.

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I don’t think it is intentional that the “reinfections” are not being highlighted. So much is new to the professionals handling COVID-19.

Here is an article I saw earlier but chose not to post when I saw it: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...-test-positive

The reason was the very low number of instances and they were well inside the realm of diagnostic and/or testing error rate. That is, a patient who recovers is then tested positive again but non-symptomatic. This needs some deep research that will take time.

Right now at .2% it isn’t the priority in China - they need to curb the outbreak as #1 methinks.

Air travel will grind down as the airlines cancel flights due to low or no demand to certain destinations. For the time being in USA, I think the focus is on efforts to stem the tide of new cases as much as possible.


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Old 17 March 2020, 04:30 PM   #2342
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Well.... We're set under martial law.

I can't believe this is happening. Businesses will be falling apart whit in a week!

Truly Draconian measures, feels like nuclear war had started.
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Old 17 March 2020, 04:31 PM   #2343
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Not much of a lock down in reality. I took this screen shot a few minutes ago:

Yikes!

That is a sobering image.

I can't see the containment plan working without domestic travel restrictions.

Hopefully warm and humid weather as spring comes online will help limit spread organically.
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:01 PM   #2344
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Anybody a member of 24hour fitness gym? They just closed all their locations until further notice.
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:13 PM   #2345
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Hope this dark cloud passes, though it will be another 6 months or 1 year by my reckoning. I hope I'm wrong.
I suspect you're right.

Ignoring the deaths for the moment - I wonder how businesses will recover, indeed if they can recover?

Imagine your local town centre, bars closed down and boarded up, restaurants and cafes shut down, shops shut down - and they will shut down. No customers + business rates and staff costs means they will collapse. New capital would be needed to open a replacement business.... where will this come from?

This sets aside the international businesses - hotel chains, airlines.

The ripple effect of this is enormous and incredibly stressful for any business.

These are indeed dark days and we need to stay calm - there is mass panic buying all over the world, which helps nobody other than the greedy morons doing it. Buy what you need folks - don't deprive everyone else to stock your personal bunker!
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:16 PM   #2346
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And with that I think I’ll take another break from this thread.
Thank you. Maybe this time it will stay that way for the sake of the thread and not driving away helpful individuals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
No point in responding.
Dr. Chitwood and all the other educated realists here, I and the vast majority appreciate your input. Feel feel to ignore the badgering from anyone who has already decided what they want to hear. Please do not let that chill your involvement here. Please keep posting, your evaluations are essential in providing context to the scenario we are all dealing with as it progresses.

Thank you
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:32 PM   #2347
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I'm out. The other doctor dropped out of this thread too.
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Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy View Post
What is it with emotional guys here driving away educated medical professionals from participating?

12Relojes, I and (I assure you) the vast majority of individuals reading this thread welcome your continued participation. Hopes and dreams and feelings are nice, but right now we need your educated context on this situation and it develops, and I would like to request that you reinvolve yourself here and not let a few emotional members chill the flow of information, the moderators have handled this. The rest of us want your input

Thank you.
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:43 PM   #2348
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Actually I would welcome your continued informed participation. On a thread like this the volume of posts is irrelevant and none of us are uniquely qualified to comment.

No disrespect VCTguy intended but none of us have an opinion on this situation that outweighs the opinions of others. I would rather hear from any and all and draw my own conclusions rather than have people metaphorically shouted down. Particularly the doctors on medical threads, pro investors on investment threads, etc....
Seconded, it’s an unfortunate development to have a few members chilling the participation of educated professionals in lieu of their one-note feelings that spawn a bevy of posts at the expense of the flow of information and useful analysis.

Same in other threads, pro investors etc. all apply.

Let’s not say importance of opinions but applicability of posts. No point in shutting that down by shouting that down or badgering those trying to contribute with something substantial to contribute.

TRF is a useful resource for many and we need to keep it that way.
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:52 PM   #2349
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Originally Posted by lovetherolex View Post
Seconded, it’s an unfortunate development to have a few members chilling the participation of educated professionals in lieu of their one-note feelings that spawn a bevy of posts at the expense of the flow of information and useful analysis.

Same in other threads, pro investors etc. all apply.

Let’s not say importance of opinions but applicability of posts. No point in shutting that down by shouting that down or badgering those trying to contribute with something substantial to contribute.

TRF is a useful resource for many and we need to keep it that way.
You’ve made you point.

You don’t need to continue being antagonistic. Please stop.
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Old 17 March 2020, 05:56 PM   #2350
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Individuals not willing to adjust their own behavior and habits, even drastically, and refusing to put up with what essentially are minor inconveniences is the difference between fighting the spread and it exploding.

Every day now we see where it's spreading like wildfire.

Not doing the necessary, small things and refusing to be inconvenienced until being forced to while awaiting a medical science "silver bullet" (There is still no vaccine against SARS or MERS) is just another way of saying "I'm too lazy", "I can't be bothered", "Someone else will figure something out".

Since late January, 2 months ago, when the first confirmed cases were identified and despite the border with China not being closed for weeks, Hong Kong immediately went into a state of medical awareness "emergency".

Not merely the government, what I'm really referring to is the average person in Hong Kong. They went through a lot during the SARS outbreak and haven't forgotten.

Almost immediately the masks went on, temperatures taken at the entrances of public and office buildings, the disinfecting every couple hours of public transport, handrails, elevator buttons by company and municipal workers, Home-officing, schools closing, activities cancelled..much of this was being done before the government "forced" the people to do it.

HKers have "been there, done that" and its taken seriously by almost everyone and, if numbers are any proof, this mentality and behavior works with this virus.

To reiterate: It works. There is proper response. The doom and gloom "we're all gonna die no matter what" are as annoying and ignorant as the "Sun will keep it away, take vitamin C" types who never paid any attention in a science class but are now "experts".

With 7.5 million, Hong Kong is the most vertical city in the world, more people living on top of one another above the 5th floor than anywhere else, which means congestion and sharing hallways and elevators. Its also the highest in terms of percentage of people using public transportation (98%). Hong Kong also shares a border with China, where at one point 50,000 people were crossing daily.

Looking at these geographics and reality of people living/traveling in close proximity to one another, if using what happened in mainland China or what's happening in Italy or Spain (or what will in the US) as a guide one would think Hong Kong's population would be somewhere between being decimated and totally wiped out after 2 months of active infections.

Yet and however, despite all these disadvantages after 2 months HK has had a grand total of only 157 cases and 4 deaths. Out of the last 57 cases, 50 have been inbound travelers, not people who are living in HK giving it to each other. Most cases in HK that have involved secondary infection have come from family members eating and living together, not someone who's gotten it mysteriously on the street.

Just today a major grocery store closed down immediately when it was found someone who tested positive visited there. It will be disinfected completely today, and will open again only in 3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface.

Businesses temporarily closing, people losing money, inconveniences, hassles...if those are the focus then the fight will be lost and the price will be counted in the currency what we're seeing in Italy, Spain, etc etc.

Governments can decree all they want but if the people, and what I mean is individuals, can't be bothered to be hygienic and aware at all times to inhibit the spread to themselves or others, then decrees are useless. Italy even had to formally ban kissing anyone you know, or might know, or meet, or whatever. Behavior like that spreads it.

Stupidity, laziness, and the inability to learn some new habits even temporarily raise the price in terms of infections and lives. False bravado to "carry on as normal" (in order to avoid the personal responsibility of adjusting) as if the answer to a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers is relatable to what one does in the face of terrorism is utterly misplaced, ignorant, and can hurt the innocent.

It's really our own choice. Science tells us what we must do as individuals to tame it...it's science but it ain't rocket science. If people can't even do the basics or are so entitled they choose to believe conspiracy theories or whatever else they use as an excuse not to be bothered, then prepare for the worst.

This morning HK just announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone (foreigner or HKer, signs of infection or not) entering Hong Kong from anywhere. This hurts businesses and it inconveniences people, but the attitude is "To win a war takes billions. To lose a war takes everything you got". In a congested city where it's almost impossible to achieve "social distancing' and hygiene and cleanliness and disinfection, they're still doing it and by any measure relative where they aren't doing them to the same scale, it works. HKers certainly never waited for a silver bullet.
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Old 17 March 2020, 06:45 PM   #2351
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Do you have a link to confirm the “3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface“?

This is an very important detail and there a not much available in the way of test results.
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Old 17 March 2020, 06:47 PM   #2352
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Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Individuals not willing to adjust their own behavior and habits, even drastically, and refusing to put up with what essentially are minor inconveniences is the difference between fighting the spread and it exploding.

Every day now we see where it's spreading like wildfire.

Not doing the necessary, small things and refusing to be inconvenienced until being forced to while awaiting a medical science "silver bullet" (There is still no vaccine against SARS or MERS) is just another way of saying "I'm too lazy", "I can't be bothered", "Someone else will figure something out".

Since late January, 2 months ago, when the first confirmed cases were identified and despite the border with China not being closed for weeks, Hong Kong immediately went into a state of medical awareness "emergency".

Not merely the government, What I'm really referring to is the average person in Hong Kong. They went through a lot during the SARS outbreak and haven't forgotten.

Almost immediately the masks went on, temperatures taken at the entrances of public and office buildings, the disinfecting every couple hours of public transport, handrails, elevator buttons by company and municipal workers, Home-officing, schools closing, activities cancelled..much of all this was being done before the government "forced" the people to do it.

HKers have "been there, done that" and its taken seriously by almost everyone, and if numbers are any proof, this mentality and behavior works with this virus.

To reiterate: It works. There is proper response. The doom and gloom, "we're all gonna die no matter what" are as annoying and ignorant as the "Sun will keep it away, take vitamin C" types who never paid any attention in a science class but are now "experts".

With 7.5 million, Hong Kong is the most vertical city in the world, more people living on top of one another above the 5th floor that anywhere else, which means congestion and sharing hallways and elevators. Its also the highest in terms of percentage of people using public transportation (98%). Hong Kong also shares a border with China, where at one point 50,000 people were crossing daily.

Looking at these geographics and reality of people living/traveling in close proximity to one another, if using what happened in mainland China or what's happening in Italy or Spain (or what will in the US) as a guide one would think Hong Kong's population would be somewhere between being decimated and totally wiped out after 2 months of active infections.

Yet and However, despite all these disadvantages, after 2 months HK has had a grand total of only 157 cases and 4 deaths. out of the last 57 cases, 50 have been inbound travelers, not people who are living in HK giving it to each other. Most cases in HK that have involved secondary infection have come from family members eating and living together, not someone who's gotten it mysteriously on the street.

Just today a major grocery store closed down immediately when it was found someone who tested positive visited there. It will be disinfected completely today, and will open again only in 3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface.

Businesses temporarily closing, people losing money, inconveniences, hassles...if those are the focus then the fight will be lost and the price will be counted in the currency what we're seeing in Italy, Spain, etc etc.

Governments can decree all they want but if the people, and what I mean is individuals, can't be bothered to be hygienic and aware at all times to inhibit the spread to themselves or others, then decrees are useless. Italy even had to formally ban kissing anyone you know, or might know, or meet, or whatever. Behavior like that spreads it.

Stupidity, laziness, and the inability to learn some new habits even temporarily raise the price in terms of infections and lives. False bravado to "carry on as normal" (in order to avoid the personal responsibility of adjusting) as if the answer to a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers is relatable to what one does in the face of terrorism is utterly misplaced, ignorant, and can hurt the innocent.

It's really our own choice. Science tells us what we must do as individuals to tame it...it's science but it ain't rocket science. If people can't even do the basics or are so entitled they choose to believe conspiracy theories or whatever else they use as an excuse not to be bothered, then prepare for the worst.

This morning HK just announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone (foreigner or HKer, signs of infection or not) entering Hong Kong from anywhere. This hurts businesses and it inconveniences people, but the attitude is "To win a war takes billions. To lose a war takes everything you got". In a congested city where it's almost impossible to achieve "social distancing' and hygiene and cleanliness and disinfection, they're still doing it and by any measure relative where they aren't doing them to the same scale, it works. HKers certainly never waited for a silver bullet.
Thanks for this post. Well read and appreciate your insight.
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Old 17 March 2020, 06:52 PM   #2353
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I believe the majority of us are going to catch this at some point or other. It’s inevitable. More to the point, I assume that’s what the physicians advising the government believe. Certainly I can’t see any possible way of getting rid of the virus before it infects most of us.

If you accept that premise, then trying to shield the most vulnerable for as long as possible seems to make sense.

Personally I also think 1% will turn out to be an overestimate for the mortality rate, but I’m not married to the idea of arguing the toss since we’re all guessing on that score.
I agree.

And whats more - we will probably never know the mortality % as many people will have had it and recovered/recovering and not even bothered calling our health service.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:19 PM   #2354
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Do you have a link to confirm the “3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface“?

This is an very important detail and there a not much available in the way of test results.
Here is a link to an NPR story on the study just done on CV shelf life.

Different times for cardboard, plastic and metal.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-clean-them
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:24 PM   #2355
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Here is a link to an NPR story on the study just done on CV shelf life.

Different times for cardboard, plastic and metal.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-clean-them
Thanks for the link H.

Previous statements stated a few hours to 9 days.

Knowing the max time frame is important imo.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:46 PM   #2356
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People who recover after being infected with the novel coronavirus can still be left with substantially weakened lung capacity, with some left gasping for air when walking quickly, doctors in Hong Kong have found.

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-th...afterwards/amp
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:54 PM   #2357
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I don’t think it is intentional that the “reinfections” are not being highlighted. So much is new to the professionals handling COVID-19.

Here is an article I saw earlier but chose not to post when I saw it: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...-test-positive

The reason was the very low number of instances and they were well inside the realm of diagnostic and/or testing error rate. That is, a patient who recovers is then tested positive again but non-symptomatic. This needs some deep research that will take time.

Right now at .2% it isn’t the priority in China - they need to curb the outbreak as #1 methinks.

Air travel will grind down as the airlines cancel flights due to low or no demand to certain destinations. For the time being in USA, I think the focus is on efforts to stem the tide of new cases as much as possible.


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What are you saying is .2% ?

Based on their (China) numbers (not sure that I believe them knowing China) are accurate or rather, "full disclosure," their death rate is at 3.84%. Whereas Italy is running at a death rate of 7.71%.

Washington state is running at 5.3%. While most countries numbers reflect around a 3% death rate, some are dying and have not been tested, so cause of death is being labeled as some other cause and not COVID19. My wife is in the healthcare industry and testing is a process and not yet widely available.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:02 PM   #2358
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Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Individuals not willing to adjust their own behavior and habits, even drastically, and refusing to put up with what essentially are minor inconveniences is the difference between fighting the spread and it exploding.

Every day now we see where it's spreading like wildfire.

Not doing the necessary, small things and refusing to be inconvenienced until being forced to while awaiting a medical science "silver bullet" (There is still no vaccine against SARS or MERS) is just another way of saying "I'm too lazy", "I can't be bothered", "Someone else will figure something out".

Since late January, 2 months ago, when the first confirmed cases were identified and despite the border with China not being closed for weeks, Hong Kong immediately went into a state of medical awareness "emergency".

Not merely the government, what I'm really referring to is the average person in Hong Kong. They went through a lot during the SARS outbreak and haven't forgotten.

Almost immediately the masks went on, temperatures taken at the entrances of public and office buildings, the disinfecting every couple hours of public transport, handrails, elevator buttons by company and municipal workers, Home-officing, schools closing, activities cancelled..much of this was being done before the government "forced" the people to do it.

HKers have "been there, done that" and its taken seriously by almost everyone and, if numbers are any proof, this mentality and behavior works with this virus.

To reiterate: It works. There is proper response. The doom and gloom "we're all gonna die no matter what" are as annoying and ignorant as the "Sun will keep it away, take vitamin C" types who never paid any attention in a science class but are now "experts".

With 7.5 million, Hong Kong is the most vertical city in the world, more people living on top of one another above the 5th floor than anywhere else, which means congestion and sharing hallways and elevators. Its also the highest in terms of percentage of people using public transportation (98%). Hong Kong also shares a border with China, where at one point 50,000 people were crossing daily.

Looking at these geographics and reality of people living/traveling in close proximity to one another, if using what happened in mainland China or what's happening in Italy or Spain (or what will in the US) as a guide one would think Hong Kong's population would be somewhere between being decimated and totally wiped out after 2 months of active infections.

Yet and however, despite all these disadvantages after 2 months HK has had a grand total of only 157 cases and 4 deaths. Out of the last 57 cases, 50 have been inbound travelers, not people who are living in HK giving it to each other. Most cases in HK that have involved secondary infection have come from family members eating and living together, not someone who's gotten it mysteriously on the street.

Just today a major grocery store closed down immediately when it was found someone who tested positive visited there. It will be disinfected completely today, and will open again only in 3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface.

Businesses temporarily closing, people losing money, inconveniences, hassles...if those are the focus then the fight will be lost and the price will be counted in the currency what we're seeing in Italy, Spain, etc etc.

Governments can decree all they want but if the people, and what I mean is individuals, can't be bothered to be hygienic and aware at all times to inhibit the spread to themselves or others, then decrees are useless. Italy even had to formally ban kissing anyone you know, or might know, or meet, or whatever. Behavior like that spreads it.

Stupidity, laziness, and the inability to learn some new habits even temporarily raise the price in terms of infections and lives. False bravado to "carry on as normal" (in order to avoid the personal responsibility of adjusting) as if the answer to a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers is relatable to what one does in the face of terrorism is utterly misplaced, ignorant, and can hurt the innocent.

It's really our own choice. Science tells us what we must do as individuals to tame it...it's science but it ain't rocket science. If people can't even do the basics or are so entitled they choose to believe conspiracy theories or whatever else they use as an excuse not to be bothered, then prepare for the worst.

This morning HK just announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone (foreigner or HKer, signs of infection or not) entering Hong Kong from anywhere. This hurts businesses and it inconveniences people, but the attitude is "To win a war takes billions. To lose a war takes everything you got". In a congested city where it's almost impossible to achieve "social distancing' and hygiene and cleanliness and disinfection, they're still doing it and by any measure relative where they aren't doing them to the same scale, it works. HKers certainly never waited for a silver bullet.
Thank you for this post...now if we could all heed this advice!
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:04 PM   #2359
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Anybody a member of 24hour fitness gym? They just closed all their locations until further notice.
Paul, are you even paying attention to news or messaging from the local, state and fed government? It seems like you are late getting the info. Or not even listening.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:07 PM   #2360
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Thanks for this post. Well read and appreciate your insight.
It might be working in HK since their death rate is fairly low at 2.5%
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:10 PM   #2361
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Thanks for this post. Well read and appreciate your insight.
X2 Ken, very well said CRM
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:22 PM   #2362
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What are you saying is .2% ?

Based on their (China) numbers (not sure that I believe them knowing China) are accurate or rather, "full disclosure," their death rate is at 3.84%. Whereas Italy is running at a death rate of 7.71%.

Washington state is running at 5.3%. While most countries numbers reflect around a 3% death rate, some are dying and have not been tested, so cause of death is being labeled as some other cause and not COVID19. My wife is in the healthcare industry and testing is a process and not yet widely available.
I believe he is talking about possible reinfection rate.

Stay safe fellow Carolinian.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:24 PM   #2363
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The US has two situations. Almost half of the currently diagnosed cases are in NY state, King County WA and the Bay Area. Those areas need severe curtailing of social gathering, probably for months. Of course, these are the banking, finance and media centers.

The rest of the country has a much lower rate of spread. For example, the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex has about 25 total diagnoses cases. Even if the undercount is by a factor, this is a tiny percentage. It actually could be managed by old style enforced home quarantines, if we were to go to that route (doubtful). These areas of low penetration merit a second look after a few weeks, to see if measures can be reduced.

At some point, the US will have to figure out how to manage different standards between regions. We’re very good at equal treatment policies and not very practiced at discretionary discernment.

Currently, the US has a shortage of testing in the manner that it has a shortage of hand sanitizer. Yes, everyone that wants five bottles of sanitizer for their home can’t have them because some nitwits hoarded them in a rush on the stores. Similarly, everyone that thinks they would like to be tested can’t be tested. However, there are enough tests for everyone that the doctors order a test for. Perspective- S. Korea is a model of testing and they tested almost 4,000 out of every million, leaving 99.6% untested.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:30 PM   #2364
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Originally Posted by gnuyork View Post
Paul, are you even paying attention to news or messaging from the local, state and fed government? It seems like you are late getting the info. Or not even listening.
People still have blinkers on. They don't want it to be true.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:32 PM   #2365
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Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Individuals not willing to adjust their own behavior and habits, even drastically, and refusing to put up with what essentially are minor inconveniences is the difference between fighting the spread and it exploding.

Every day now we see where it's spreading like wildfire.

Not doing the necessary, small things and refusing to be inconvenienced until being forced to while awaiting a medical science "silver bullet" (There is still no vaccine against SARS or MERS) is just another way of saying "I'm too lazy", "I can't be bothered", "Someone else will figure something out".

Since late January, 2 months ago, when the first confirmed cases were identified and despite the border with China not being closed for weeks, Hong Kong immediately went into a state of medical awareness "emergency".

Not merely the government, what I'm really referring to is the average person in Hong Kong. They went through a lot during the SARS outbreak and haven't forgotten.

Almost immediately the masks went on, temperatures taken at the entrances of public and office buildings, the disinfecting every couple hours of public transport, handrails, elevator buttons by company and municipal workers, Home-officing, schools closing, activities cancelled..much of this was being done before the government "forced" the people to do it.

HKers have "been there, done that" and its taken seriously by almost everyone and, if numbers are any proof, this mentality and behavior works with this virus.

To reiterate: It works. There is proper response. The doom and gloom "we're all gonna die no matter what" are as annoying and ignorant as the "Sun will keep it away, take vitamin C" types who never paid any attention in a science class but are now "experts".

With 7.5 million, Hong Kong is the most vertical city in the world, more people living on top of one another above the 5th floor than anywhere else, which means congestion and sharing hallways and elevators. Its also the highest in terms of percentage of people using public transportation (98%). Hong Kong also shares a border with China, where at one point 50,000 people were crossing daily.

Looking at these geographics and reality of people living/traveling in close proximity to one another, if using what happened in mainland China or what's happening in Italy or Spain (or what will in the US) as a guide one would think Hong Kong's population would be somewhere between being decimated and totally wiped out after 2 months of active infections.

Yet and however, despite all these disadvantages after 2 months HK has had a grand total of only 157 cases and 4 deaths. Out of the last 57 cases, 50 have been inbound travelers, not people who are living in HK giving it to each other. Most cases in HK that have involved secondary infection have come from family members eating and living together, not someone who's gotten it mysteriously on the street.

Just today a major grocery store closed down immediately when it was found someone who tested positive visited there. It will be disinfected completely today, and will open again only in 3 days after the exposed "shelf life" of the virus on a hard metal surface.

Businesses temporarily closing, people losing money, inconveniences, hassles...if those are the focus then the fight will be lost and the price will be counted in the currency what we're seeing in Italy, Spain, etc etc.

Governments can decree all they want but if the people, and what I mean is individuals, can't be bothered to be hygienic and aware at all times to inhibit the spread to themselves or others, then decrees are useless. Italy even had to formally ban kissing anyone you know, or might know, or meet, or whatever. Behavior like that spreads it.

Stupidity, laziness, and the inability to learn some new habits even temporarily raise the price in terms of infections and lives. False bravado to "carry on as normal" (in order to avoid the personal responsibility of adjusting) as if the answer to a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers is relatable to what one does in the face of terrorism is utterly misplaced, ignorant, and can hurt the innocent.

It's really our own choice. Science tells us what we must do as individuals to tame it...it's science but it ain't rocket science. If people can't even do the basics or are so entitled they choose to believe conspiracy theories or whatever else they use as an excuse not to be bothered, then prepare for the worst.

This morning HK just announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone (foreigner or HKer, signs of infection or not) entering Hong Kong from anywhere. This hurts businesses and it inconveniences people, but the attitude is "To win a war takes billions. To lose a war takes everything you got". In a congested city where it's almost impossible to achieve "social distancing' and hygiene and cleanliness and disinfection, they're still doing it and by any measure relative where they aren't doing them to the same scale, it works. HKers certainly never waited for a silver bullet.
Good post.

Re: the terrorism analogy, it is also interesting to note that society does not even blink at spending billions and (even trillions if you count wars) to try to reduce the threat of terrorism. And we accept pretty stringent changes to our behavior to guard agaist terrorism. What is needed is a mindset change so that we are willing to do the same to fight an enemy we cannot see with the naked eye.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:35 PM   #2366
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Originally Posted by gnuyork View Post
Paul, are you even paying attention to news or messaging from the local, state and fed government? It seems like you are late getting the info. Or not even listening.
Understand everyone's frustration. But providing links to information to educate is more useful than using words that people take offense over.

When people take offense walls to listening go up.

Stay safe.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:42 PM   #2367
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Thanks for the link H.

Previous statements stated a few hours to 9 days.

Knowing the max time frame is important imo.
Believe it nor not, we are starting to store our mail, deliveries and purchases for the suggested times before use.

My spouse and I are not alarmists. But we are in at risk groups so are trying to be careful.

Still have to go see some clients at high risk locations (front line medical providers). So we are going to try to strike a balance.

Glove up. And put arm out and say thanks for respecting my space.

This is a hard change.

Stay safe.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:42 PM   #2368
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Originally Posted by mountainjogger View Post
Understand everyone's frustration. But providing links to information to educate is more useful than using words that people take offense over.

When people take offense walls to listening go up.

Stay safe.
Understood, but at this point you would have to be actively ignoring the info which seems unwise (and selfish):

But here:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronaviru...ry?id=69615056
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:52 PM   #2369
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Originally Posted by Dawg2 View Post
What are you saying is .2% ?



Based on their (China) numbers (not sure that I believe them knowing China) are accurate or rather, "full disclosure," their death rate is at 3.84%. Whereas Italy is running at a death rate of 7.71%.



Washington state is running at 5.3%. While most countries numbers reflect around a 3% death rate, some are dying and have not been tested, so cause of death is being labeled as some other cause and not COVID19. My wife is in the healthcare industry and testing is a process and not yet widely available.

The .2% I mentioned is the observed reinfections rate cited in the article. It isn’t related to the death rates.

From the article I posted:
“Such cases account for less than 0.2% of China’s total infections — not enough to cause alarm. But they are raising questions in China about the reliability of diagnostic tests, the possibility of reinfection and whether patients are wrongly designated as “recovered” and released too early from hospitals.”

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainjogger View Post
I believe he is talking about possible reinfection rate.



Stay safe fellow Carolinian.

Yes, appreciate you reading the article.

The quick sequencing of the initial coronavirus genome will be helpful beyond its usefulness in vaccine engineering. If the reinfections are actually true, then the samples taken from them should show a mutation.

For the time being, with the reinfections being so low, we may not hear about efforts to isolate a potential mutation.

The encouraging news is that previous viral outbreaks showed that new generation mutations were weakened compared to their ancestor(s).



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Old 17 March 2020, 10:02 PM   #2370
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I’m beginning to wonder if I had it back in February and didn’t even know it. I traveled to S.L.P. MX from Jan 28-31 through DFW. This was right at the early onset of reporting of the outbreak over seas. It caught my attention enough to consider not going but I went anyways. By the following Tuesday upon my return I was feeling tired but went to work through Wednesday but went home early. I stayed home Thursday through the weekend, hit the the typical “flu” like symptoms with a fever but never any shortness of breath etc. My oldest (10) was than sick about 5 days later, same thing laid up on the couch for 3-4 days with a fever but then kicked it. Very likely just the “flu” but now I’m wondering...
Last week, four of five members of my middle daughter’s family became ill. High fevers, body aches, headaches, cough, runny nose and malaise. They were found through lab testing to have Influenza B, which wasn’t covered by the flu shot. The two who got symptoms later were treated with Tamiflu and had a much more mild illness.

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Originally Posted by lovetherolex View Post
Thank you. Maybe this time it will stay that way for the sake of the thread and not driving away helpful individuals. Dr. Chitwood and all the other educated realists here, I and the vast majority appreciate your input. Feel feel to ignore the badgering from anyone who has already decided what they want to hear. Please do not let that chill your involvement here. Please keep posting, your evaluations are essential in providing context to the scenario we are all dealing with as it progresses.

Thank you
Thank you for the kind words. Brett reached out to me privately, and we came to a mutual understanding and respect.
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